(Soon to be) Former President Donald Trump

[McD]

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/...mpression=true

Good ‘what if’ article on if Trump contests the result.


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that’s really interesting to read, and I doubt it will be the last time it will be explored in the next few months.

actually quite frightening that an incumbent could refuse to accept the election outcome, and what they could do prior to the Election Day and afterwards to cling to power.

i wonder if, once trump is no longer in power, there will be a look at amending their constitution to address such a scenario

[BroxburnHibee]

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/...mpression=true

Good ‘what if’ article on if Trump contests the result.


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Good read that.

[Hibrandenburg]

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He is an affront to democracy. He is lowering the level of debate to such a base level and playing on folks tribal instincts kicking in. It’s utterly tragic and depressing in 2020 that the so called worlds policemen is run by an utter buffoon who makes Johnson look like a genius. I feel sorry for the yanks having to listen to his nonsense every day.

I'm more concerned about what and who comes after Trump. Trump has pathed the way for a real fascist by making fascist behaviour socially acceptable in mainstream politics in the US, someone with a bit of brains and charisma could use that to great effect in the near future.

[Ozyhibby]

I really think the next president has to fix all the holes in their constitution over executive power. That should be the most important job over the next four years.


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[Hibernia&Alba]

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I'm more concerned about what and who comes after Trump. Trump has pathed the way for a real fascist by making fascist behaviour socially acceptable in mainstream politics in the US, someone with a bit of brains and charisma could use that to great effect in the near future.

Indeed. I think it's in the balance as to whether Trump represents the dying fury of racist America or whether he will pave the way for a far more dangerous demagogue. It seems it's in the balance just now. Trump's popularity with the lowest common denominator is disheartening, but American culture is very strange in many ways.

[neil7908]

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Indeed. I think it's in the balance as to whether Trump represents the dying fury of racist America or whether he will pave the way for a far more dangerous demagogue. It seems it's in the balance just now. Trump's popularity with the lowest common denominator is disheartening, but American culture is very strange in many ways.

Good point. Trump is a moron - imagine how much more dangerous the next one will be if they can capture a section of the electorates attention like he has and also be smart enough to not tell people to ingest bleach. Pretty scary prospect.

[mjhibby]

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I'm more concerned about what and who comes after Trump. Trump has pathed the way for a real fascist by making fascist behaviour socially acceptable in mainstream politics in the US, someone with a bit of brains and charisma could use that to great effect in the near future.

Agreed. The fact that most folk followed the govt instructions in the main with Covid shows it’s easier than folk think from an extreme president to do as he pleases. Trump constantly tries to chip away at democracy or as he sees it, anybody who disagrees with him. The concept of democratic and accountable govt seems to me to being eroded by small steps. As you say it doesn’t bear thinking about if an extreme of left or right took hold in the USA or here. As Bret weinstein constantly points out, it’s naive in the extreme to think it can’t happen. The utter lies during brexit and trumps making it up as you go along is a warning that should a despot with charm and charisma take power and say the right things then we could well up in a very bleak place.

[Colr]

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Good read that.

He may not need to. Lest we forget:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

[hibsbollah]

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/...mpression=true

Good ‘what if’ article on if Trump contests the result.


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That’s an excellent article for referring back to. Very informative.

It’s a strange position for a committed leftie like myself but the US represents the best hope for the survival of democratic government as a concept. This election and it’s aftermath is hugely important. We see Putin changing the constitution to make himself president for life. Xi doing the same in China. Modis Hindu nationalists in India. Governments on various stages of conversion to fascism in Brazil Hungary Poland the Philippines. Europe fraying at the seams with Brexit and a rise of populist intolerance in the East. If Trump really does refuse to walk in the event of a November defeat we might be seeing the end of pluralism, concepts of the collective good, the electoral process itself. Most of which was a twentieth century construct anyway.

When I look back at the early 80s when Cold War paranoia was at its height, it seems with hindsight to be a much safer and secure world to what’s being played out now.

[Ozyhibby]

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He may not need to. Lest we forget:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

That shows a Clinton lead in the polls of between 3 and 5%. Biden currently shows a lead between 10 and 15%. Big difference.


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[lapsedhibee]

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That shows a Clinton lead in the polls of between 3 and 5%. Biden currently shows a lead between 10 and 15%. Big difference.

Do we know if Russian bots have started work in earnest yet, or are they still just limbering up?

[hibsbollah]

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That shows a Clinton lead in the polls of between 3 and 5%. Biden currently shows a lead between 10 and 15%. Big difference.


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...and Clinton did indeed win the popular vote, so the polls were broadly accurate in that sense.

[JeMeSouviens]

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...and Clinton did indeed win the popular vote, so the polls were broadly accurate in that sense.

The average national poll lead for HRC was 3.2% and she "won" the popular vote by 2.1%.

Biden is currently about 10% ahead in national polls which, even allowing for swing state vagaries, is landslide territory. Something big has to change for Trump to win from here.

[Keith_M]

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The average national poll lead for HRC was 3.2% and she "won" the popular vote by 2.1%.

Biden is currently about 10% ahead in national polls which, even allowing for swing state vagaries, is landslide territory. Something big has to change for Trump to win from here.

Usually a patriotic war is the go-to event for a struggling leader. Without the Falklands war, Thatcher would have been out on her ear in 1983.

Not sure who Trump would be able to start a war with just now. Mexico, maybe?

[grunt]

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Not sure who Trump would be able to start a war with just now. Mexico, maybe?

He currently seems to be at war with his own people.

[hibsbollah]

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He currently seems to be at war with his own people.

The Enemy Within. A well played out tactic to divide and rule a country for political gain. Its probably easier and cheaper than nuking China, anyway.

[Ozyhibby]

NEW @MorningConsult Poll:

Colorado:
Biden +13

Virginia:
Biden +10

Michigan:
Biden +10

Arizona:
Biden +7

Pennsylvania:
Biden +7

Wisconsin:
Biden +7

Florida:
Biden +3

Minnesota:
Biden +3

Texas:
Biden +2

Georgia:
Biden +1

North Carolina:
Tied

Ohio:
Trump +3

Biden only needs 2 or 3 of these states to win the presidency. If Trump wins from here then it’s the biggest comeback in history.


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[Smartie]

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NEW @MorningConsult Poll:

Colorado:
Biden +13

Virginia:
Biden +10

Michigan:
Biden +10

Arizona:
Biden +7

Pennsylvania:
Biden +7

Wisconsin:
Biden +7

Florida:
Biden +3

Minnesota:
Biden +3

Texas:
Biden +2

Georgia:
Biden +1

North Carolina:
Tied

Ohio:
Trump +3

Biden only needs 2 or 3 of these states to win the presidency. If Trump wins from here then it’s the biggest comeback in history.


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He needs a war.

That will be a worrying thought until he is removed from office.

[Bostonhibby]

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He needs a war.

That will be a worrying thought until he is removed from office.

He'll probably declare war on California. People tell him it's a nasty country, they tell him it's bad.

Them damn Californikans are worse than those Mexiconianns he was going to sort out at the beginning of his first term.

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[Colr]

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He'll probably declare war on California. People tell him it's a nasty country, they tell him it's bad.

Them damn Californikans are worse than those Mexiconianns he was going to sort out at the beginning of his first term.

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Lotta bad hombres.

[Bostonhibby]

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Lotta bad hombres.

Yep, people tell him them hombers are bad peoples. Build a wall to keep the hombers out could be a campaign slogan.

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[Sir David Gray]

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NEW @MorningConsult Poll:

Colorado:
Biden +13

Virginia:
Biden +10

Michigan:
Biden +10

Arizona:
Biden +7

Pennsylvania:
Biden +7

Wisconsin:
Biden +7

Florida:
Biden +3

Minnesota:
Biden +3

Texas:
Biden +2

Georgia:
Biden +1

North Carolina:
Tied

Ohio:
Trump +3

Biden only needs 2 or 3 of these states to win the presidency. If Trump wins from here then it’s the biggest comeback in history.


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Trump winning in Ohio is an interesting one.

Not since 1960 has a candidate won in Ohio and failed to get elected as President and it's only happened on four occasions since 1860.

[hibsbollah]

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He'll probably declare war on California. People tell him it's a nasty country, they tell him it's bad.

Them damn Californikans are worse than those Mexiconianns he was going to sort out at the beginning of his first term.

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California, the enemy within. And Portland. Very bad people.
Thatcher showed the way going to war against South Yorkshire and Merseyside of course so let’s not get too anti American about it.

[hibsbollah]

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Trump winning in Ohio is an interesting one.

Not since 1960 has a candidate won in Ohio and failed to get elected as President and it's only happened on four occasions since 1860.

I personally think stats like that owe more to historical coincidence than any genuine ‘bell weather’ status in Ohio. If he gets pasted in the big electoral colleges like California, Texas, Florida, Michigan it won’t matter what Clint in Cleveland says, he’ll be out.

[Bostonhibby]

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California, the enemy within. And Portland. Very bad people.
Thatcher showed the way going to war against South Yorkshire and Merseyside of course so let’s not get too anti American about it.

Yes, it will be interesting to see how Americans respond at the ballot box to how Trump deals with internal matters affecting the "homeland".

Don't get me started on Thatcher...

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[marinello59]

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California, the enemy within. And Portland. Very bad people.
Thatcher showed the way going to war against South Yorkshire and Merseyside of course so let’s not get too anti American about it.

Good point. We are still waiting for the long overdue enquiry in to what happened at Orgreave. Trumps behaviour here is nothing new.

[Mibbes Aye]

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I personally think stats like that owe more to historical coincidence than any genuine ‘bell weather’ status in Ohio. If he gets pasted in the big electoral colleges like California, Texas, Florida, Michigan it won’t matter what Clint in Cleveland says, he’ll be out.

Texas would be a massive game changer, . Chuck in Florida, assume California is a given and it looks like landslide territory. Texas has been red since Reagan, in maybe no small part because of those good ol’ Bush boys being on most of the various tickets. Gaining Texas would possibly make Florida redundant in the equation, in terms of getting over the line. Be nice to see an electoral college slaughter though, on a par with 1984 but this time for the good guys (or less worse guys!)

Still no announcement on VP though that might wait until the virtual convention. It is surely between Abrams and Harris. I wouldn’t rule out Trump being Trump and taking Pence off his ticket, even though that is the only security he has with the religious right vote. It is Trump though. Jared for VP!

[Tobias Funke]

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Texas would be a massive game changer, . Chuck in Florida, assume California is a given and it looks like landslide territory. Texas has been red since Reagan, in maybe no small part because of those good ol’ Bush boys being on most of the various tickets. Gaining Texas would possibly make Florida redundant in the equation, in terms of getting over the line. Be nice to see an electoral college slaughter though, on a par with 1984 but this time for the good guys (or less worse guys!)

Still no announcement on VP though that might wait until the virtual convention. It is surely between Abrams and Harris. I wouldn’t rule out Trump being Trump and taking Pence off his ticket, even though that is the only security he has with the religious right vote. It is Trump though. Jared for VP!

Listened to a podcast interview with one of the Democratic nominees (Beta O Rourke I think). He said if Biden secures Texas there is no pathway for Trump to win, he’s toast if that state turns Blue.

[Mibbes Aye]

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Listened to a podcast interview with one of the Democratic nominees (Beta O Rourke I think). He said if Biden secures Texas there is no pathway for Trump to win, he’s toast if that state turns Blue.

It is fascinating because Biden has publicly committed to a women running mate. If he hadn’t then O’Rourke would have been a contender and brought Texas even more into play. Also offers youth on the ticket. I still think Biden is right though -it is a real risk of generalising but he was always going to win on women votes and black votes. Abrams or Harris locks it in with a lot of female and black voters. A woman VP, a black VP, both resonate, especially with an electorate looking at Trump’s record through the pandemic and just more generally.

[Ozyhibby]

If Texas goes blue it’s a total landslide. I think Texas is starting to move that way though anyway as it becomes a lot more urban.


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