Coronavirus

[G B Young]

South America: Brazil's true death toll likely to be 'far higher' as health service overwhelmed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52701524

Catastrophe building in Brazil. From what I gather their president pretty much ignored the looming crisis until it was too late.

[Callum_62]

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South America: Brazil's true death toll likely to be 'far higher' as health service overwhelmed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-52701524

Catastrophe building in Brazil. From what I gather their president pretty much ignored the looming crisis until it was too late.

Despite the rapidly rising infection rate, Mr Bolsonaro argued that most people - including himself - had nothing to fear from the virus.

"With my history as an athlete, if I were infected with the virus I would have no reason to worry. I would feel nothing, or it would be at most just a little flu," he said.

Its always the individual

What a tosser

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[PaulSmith]

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Debate isn't good enough when your wife is a teacher.

Why is anyone been asked to wfh when you can?

Ironically teachers can, although I understand it brings around some practical issues

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You’re not actually advocating that hundreds of thousands of kids are taught from home, indefinitely until a vaccine is found?

The elephant in the room is that there is such a low risk of having any issues with C19, even less so for those that don’t have serious underlying health conditions and aren’t over 75.

[danhibees1875]

I'm not sure if the 500k model was ever credible or not, but if it was then it would have been based on the circumstances at that time and how we lived normally I would think. I don't think it's a fair comparison to say that would be the death toll coming out of lockdown now?

Going back to the article and I think they make a lot of pretty loose assumptions about value of life (a tricky subject at the best of times) and the economic impacts of lockdown.

I didn't find the article compelling but I'm not sure now is the time to be reopening schools either.

The timing seems to be deliberately silly, 2-3 weeks after the initial easing is surely the most likely time that there will be a little blip in the downward trajectory of cases/death stats. If that does happen then that news will come through just as England looks to reopen schools again...

Scotland are a bit lucky with the summer holidays being earlier. It's a much easier decision to make to just keep the schools shut until August.

[Sylar]

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Debate isn't good enough when your wife is a teacher.

Why is anyone been asked to wfh when you can?

Ironically teachers can, although I understand it brings around some practical issues

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It depends on the setting/pupils. Not all teachers can work from home, particularly with vulnerable children or those who require extra support for learning difficulties (or developmental difficulties in lower-age settings).

I'm genuinely asking the following question (as I've had tunnel vision on this issue a little, and I'd like to hear some counter-evidence), but have any teachers that have continued working in school or nursery hubs for key-worker children become infected via transmission from children during the lockdown? Is there any evidence out there for kids passing the disease onto teachers in a school setting?

Teachers should absolutely feel confident in returning to their workplace without being placed in undue situations of risk. If there's any risk there at all, then the reopening of schools should probably be delayed until a risk management strategy can be put in place to protect both pupils and teachers alike.

If a delay does happen, the Government then need to find some other solution to the childcare situation that will be necessary to address before many millions can return to work. Allowing family members outside of a household to look after kids would be an easy win.

[Sylar]

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You’re not actually advocating that hundreds of thousands of kids are taught from home, indefinitely until a vaccine is found?

The elephant in the room is that there is such a low risk of having any issues with C19, even less so for those that don’t have serious underlying health conditions and aren’t over 75.

The counter to this is that there are probably teachers who have underlying conditions that would be placed at a disadvantage - are we suggesting they continue to be sheilded and not allowed to work until a vaccine is found while their colleagues continue to work/develop at the same time?

There's no easy answer here - merely a headache for those responsible for planning the return of education back to a classroom setting.

[marinello59]

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If evidence is subject to debate then any responsible administration should be erring on the side of caution. Personally think Scottish schools should go back after summer which would allow schools and councils reasonable time to organise social distance configurations required and agree appropriate scheduling of classes as no school will be able to open to all pupils imo.

That’s exactly what we should he doing, using the time between now and the Autumn term to get things right. There is no reason at all for Schools in Scotland to rush things just so kids can attend for a few weeks before the scheduled summer holidays.

[Callum_62]

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It depends on the setting/pupils. Not all teachers can work from home, particularly with vulnerable children or those who require extra support for learning difficulties (or developmental difficulties in lower-age settings).

I'm genuinely asking the following question (as I've had tunnel vision on this issue a little, and I'd like to hear some counter-evidence), but have any teachers that have continued working in school or nursery hubs for key-worker children become infected via transmission from children during the lockdown? Is there any evidence out there for kids passing the disease onto teachers in a school setting?

Teachers should absolutely feel confident in returning to their workplace without being placed in undue situations of risk. If there's any risk there at all, then the reopening of schools should probably be delayed until a risk management strategy can be put in place to protect both pupils and teachers alike.

If a delay does happen, the Government then need to find some other solution to the childcare situation that will be necessary to address before many millions can return to work. Allowing family members outside of a household to look after kids would be an easy win.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bri...ry-4130810.amp

Ofcourse they could've picked it up from elsewhere

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[Hibby Bairn]

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They also have a significantly higher death rate than their Scandinavian counterparts who did lockdown.

10 times more deaths than Norway and 7 times more than Denmark.

Yes. But look beyond their “neighbouring” countries. Say Scotland for instance.

[Kato]

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Yes. But look beyond their “neighbouring” countries. Say Scotland for instance.

I think the reason for comparing them with their neighbours is their cultural similarities. As has been pointed out to you, but you seem eager to ignore, Scotland isn't culturally comparable to Sweden so why try to compare?

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[Hibby Bairn]

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It depends on the setting/pupils. Not all teachers can work from home, particularly with vulnerable children or those who require extra support for learning difficulties (or developmental difficulties in lower-age settings).

I'm genuinely asking the following question (as I've had tunnel vision on this issue a little, and I'd like to hear some counter-evidence), but have any teachers that have continued working in school or nursery hubs for key-worker children become infected via transmission from children during the lockdown? Is there any evidence out there for kids passing the disease onto teachers in a school setting?

Teachers should absolutely feel confident in returning to their workplace without being placed in undue situations of risk. If there's any risk there at all, then the reopening of schools should probably be delayed until a risk management strategy can be put in place to protect both pupils and teachers alike.

If a delay does happen, the Government then need to find some other solution to the childcare situation that will be necessary to address before many millions can return to work. Allowing family members outside of a household to look after kids would be an easy win.

Agreed. The only way out of this is to stop basing decisions on “feeling” or “fear” or “gut” and start providing evidence and facts. Otherwise we will never move forward.

In terms of teachers there are quite a few countries now where children are at school or have never been off. There seems to be a few studies around transmission in children. The govt. probably needs to be making the case otherwise the teaching unions won’t have it. And parents will also be gripped by fear. The UK won’t be alone in this but certainly at the more fearful end given the death rate here.

[Hibby Bairn]

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I think the reason for comparing them with their neighbours is their cultural similarities. As has been pointed out to you, but you seem eager to ignore, Scotland isn't culturally comparable to Sweden so why try to compare?

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I’m not eager to ignore anything.

The point is that whether you are Sweden, Japan, Scotland, USA, Poland, France, Cyprus, Netherlands etc your curves look the same. Roughly a 2 month high infection and death rate growth, peak and decline. No matter what your cultural background or lockdown.

And no evidence yet of “second spikes” anywhere that I am aware of so far.

Is it naturally “petering out”? Does higher UV have an impact? Is it seasonal? Are large sections of the community “immune” through other antibodies? Are there large sections asymptomatic? Has the disease run through its high risk victims already?

I don’t know. But there must be other aspects to this given all countries have more or less the same experience.

[Jones28]

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Despite the rapidly rising infection rate, Mr Bolsonaro argued that most people - including himself - had nothing to fear from the virus.

"With my history as an athlete, if I were infected with the virus I would have no reason to worry. I would feel nothing, or it would be at most just a little flu," he said.

Its always the individual

What a tosser

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This guy is truly unstable. He makes trump look almost sane.

[PaulSmith]

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The counter to this is that there are probably teachers who have underlying conditions that would be placed at a disadvantage - are we suggesting they continue to be sheilded and not allowed to work until a vaccine is found while their colleagues continue to work/develop at the same time?

There's no easy answer here - merely a headache for those responsible for planning the return of education back to a classroom setting.

Absolutely and completely agree. There will always be an exception and these need to be dealt with on a case by case basis.

[PaulSmith]

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bri...ry-4130810.amp

Ofcourse they could've picked it up from elsewhere

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Testing positive for c19 doesn’t mean too much unless you are in a certain vulnerable group.

If the teacher had got a really bad case of the flu, chicken pox or some other contagious disease then she’s stay off work and keep away from vulnerable members of her family until she got better.

Is this really materially different?

[Callum_62]

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Testing positive for c19 doesn’t mean too much unless you are in a certain vulnerable group.

If the teacher had got a really bad case of the flu, chicken pox or some other contagious disease then she’s stay off work and keep away from vulnerable members of her family until she got better.

Is this really materially different?

You asked if they were any cases - what's happened to them or how serious it was I don't know

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[PaulSmith]

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You asked if they were any cases - what's happened to them or how serious it was I don't know

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Nope, I asked if there was evidence of teachers being in danger which is different from if there was any cases.

My definition of danger is being hospitalised.

[JimBHibees]

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Yes. But look beyond their “neighbouring” countries. Say Scotland for instance.

Ok so look beyond countries with similar environments.

[G B Young]

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Despite the rapidly rising infection rate, Mr Bolsonaro argued that most people - including himself - had nothing to fear from the virus.

"With my history as an athlete, if I were infected with the virus I would have no reason to worry. I would feel nothing, or it would be at most just a little flu," he said.

Its always the individual

What a tosser

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It sounds as though the Americas could ultimately be hit worse than Europe, with health systems unable to cope.

[Callum_62]

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Nope, I asked if there was evidence of teachers being in danger which is different from if there was any cases.

My definition of danger is being hospitalised.

Apologies, I confused posters

https://schoolsweek.co.uk/ons-figure...-in-education/

[JeMeSouviens]

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I'm not sure if the 500k model was ever credible or not, but if it was then it would have been based on the circumstances at that time and how we lived normally I would think. I don't think it's a fair comparison to say that would be the death toll coming out of lockdown now?

Going back to the article and I think they make a lot of pretty loose assumptions about value of life (a tricky subject at the best of times) and the economic impacts of lockdown.

I didn't find the article compelling but I'm not sure now is the time to be reopening schools either.

The timing seems to be deliberately silly, 2-3 weeks after the initial easing is surely the most likely time that there will be a little blip in the downward trajectory of cases/death stats. If that does happen then that news will come through just as England looks to reopen schools again...

Scotland are a bit lucky with the summer holidays being earlier. It's a much easier decision to make to just keep the schools shut until August.

500k was the "reasonable worst case". I think the central figure to the range was 300K. They were talking about 80% of the population becoming infected. 80% of 66M is ~53M, so 300K deaths is 0.56% mortality. Given how overstretched the NHS would've been in that sort of scenario, that's pretty conservative I think? So I doubt the 500K was actually that far off.

It's certainly credible.

Edit:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/

Based on excess deaths and a major antibody test study in NY, this estimates fatality at 1.4%

At that sort of number and a "herd immunity" strategy, 500K looks like an underestimate!

[Callum_62]

My street is abosutely heaving with vans this morning

A few are private landscapers but down the street painters, roughcastors. Fencers etc all will be hired in by the development builder

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[JeMeSouviens]

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Nope, I asked if there was evidence of teachers being in danger which is different from if there was any cases.

My definition of danger is being hospitalised.

Say fatality rate is 1.4% (https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/)

Also from NY data - 3.5% of deaths were from the 45-64 age range with no underlying conds (23% for that range including underlying conds).

That's not a negligible chance of death, never mind hospitalisation.

[Mr Grieves]

This is interesting and concerning.

https://voxeu.org/article/excess-mor...id-19-pandemic

England is an outlier for excess deaths in the 15-64 age group.

[Hibby Bairn]

Both England (UK) and USA are world leaders in obesity in that age group.

[Hibby Bairn]

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My street is abosutely heaving with vans this morning

A few are private landscapers but down the street painters, roughcastors. Fencers etc all will be hired in by the development builder

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Roads are much, much busier today. Lots of small vans out.

I guess people need to go and earn a living if you are self employed.

[Sir David Gray]

Daily Scottish update;

57 new cases since yesterday
Increase of 119 in hospital and a decrease of 2 in the confirmed cases
Increase of 4 in intensive care
3354 have left hospital since 5th March
2 deaths registered since yesterday

[Sir David Gray]

Roadmap to be published on Thursday. Long overdue but welcome nonetheless.

[Sir David Gray]

Nothing to change until the next review date on 28th May and will include outdoor activities and a phased return to school.

[Mr Grieves]

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Both England (UK) and USA are world leaders in obesity in that age group.

Why has there not been the same pattern in the rest of the UK then?