Coronavirus

[SideBurns]

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The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

Jings, I have some braw ideas!

[lapsedhibee]

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I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

Count me in/out for that.

[PaulSmith]

0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

[hibsbollah]

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I think someone should organise counter-demonstrations at both venues against mass gatherings. That would show them. Of course, nobody could attend but that would be the point.

Jings, I have some braw ideas!

Wimbledon MK Dons all over again

[SideBurns]

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Wimbledon MK Dons all over again

😂

[hibsbollah]

Grant Shapps. Part Sméagol, part Jason Donavan. The usual stuff. I’m not sure we’re learning anything from this anymore, it’s just media methadone.

[RyeSloan]

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I didn't say it was 25,000. I agree that's highly unlikely to be a correct figure. You originally chose a figure of 1 in 10 actually infected. Why did you choose that, given that the overwhelming majority of the tests would have been on people who either had symptoms or were in some sort of contact with infected people?

I'm not sure that Katz's patients were re-tested at all. He was in a department mainly concerned with keeping them alive, and the clinicians already knew what they were treating.

I chose 1 in 10 as it was a nice round number to help evidence the point ;-)

But also because by any metric you choose from any country and any test they are using shows that the vast majority of tests result in a negative result.

The fact is that most presenting for the CV-19 test (with related symptoms or not) are still not actually infected with CV-19.

Anyway I was simply pointing out that your 25,000 figure was the result of a flawed calculation and wasn’t remotely possible. That much remains the case so I’ll leave it there.

[CropleyWasGod]

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I hope they stay away from Holyrood Park. It's busy enough as it is on weekends.

Then again, some might hope that they do congregate, exchange lots of bodily fluids, stay away from decent people and then spike the numbers in a few weeks.

😷

[Pretty Boy]

I honestly think it's approaching the point at which the daily briefings should be scrapped. Do we really learn anything from them? NS stands and repeats the same things every day and gets asked the same questions over and over. The UK briefings and the ability of the participants to use 5000 words to say nothing at all is almost a skill in itself. Cut it to twice weekly or whatever and talk when you have something worth saying.

I suppose the counter argument could be that it would signal something of a return to normality and that would give out the wrong message.

[JeMeSouviens]

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0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

[lapsedhibee]

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I chose 1 in 10 as it was a nice round number to help evidence the point ;-)

But also because by any metric you choose from any country and any test they are using shows that the vast majority of tests result in a negative result.

The fact is that most presenting for the CV-19 test (with related symptoms or not) are still not actually infected with CV-19.

Anyway I was simply pointing out that your 25,000 figure was the result of a flawed calculation and wasn’t remotely possible. That much remains the case so I’ll leave it there.

There's a circularity here. Basing a conclusion of how many people are infected on the result of a test which is known to be fallible is flawed. All countries are presumably using similar tests on a disease about which very little is known. I wouldn't be surprised if the definition of Covid-19 changes over time and eventually there will be a better antigen test which results in higher infection rates than currently reported. Speculating though, so so will I.

[danhibees1875]

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If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

That makes more sense.

I'm not sure if we'll ever know the number of people who have ever had it, but I think we want it to be significantly higher than 0.27%!

The number of people currently estimated to have it (known people or unknown people) is presumably something to be used with the r number when it comes to assessing the impact of lifting lockdown.

[DaveF]

Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

[G B Young]

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Swiss test isn't it? UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

Yes, developed by Roche (amazing company) but the first one approved in UK after all previous antibody tests proved useless. 100% accuracy when testing those who have had the virus and 99.8% accuracy for those who haven't had it. Potentially massive news so fingers crossed for this when it gets rolled out in the UK (apparently over the next couple of weeks).

[PaulSmith]

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If this is accurate then isn't it bad news? It makes the mortality rate massive?

I don't see how it can be accurate without an antibody test anyway? Isn't it that 0.27% of the population had the virus at the moment they were tested?

Edit: yes, it's an attempt to measure currently infected people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52662066

To quote the BBC journo:


“This figure suggests my personal chances of catching the virus are quite low at the moment”

For quite low you could replace with negligible.

[Pretty Boy]

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That makes more sense.

I'm not sure if we'll ever know the number of people who have ever had it, but I think we want it to be significantly higher than 0.27%!

The number of people currently estimated to have it (known people or unknown people) is presumably something to be used with the r number when it comes to assessing the impact of lifting lockdown.

The Kings College symptom tracker study is estimating over 240K are actively symptomatic as of 11th May. I think they have the total symptomatic cases at over 3M since the study started.

That's based on a study of over 3.5M people reporting symptoms or lack thereof regularly. What they do with those figures after they get them to reach their estimated figure I don't know. They currently estimate about 0.9% of people in Edinburgh have symptomatic infection.

[PaulSmith]

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Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

Yes we absolutely are. Understandable but becoming more difficult to support as the days go on.

We are now an outlier from almost all other nations in Europe.

[G B Young]

17.28 Italy reports death toll on the rise

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Hopefully a one-off rise. More alarmingly though, their true current death toll is 'estimated to be well in excess of 50,000 when deaths at home and in care homes are ultimately collated and included'

[lapsedhibee]

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Garden and recycling centres open in NI from Monday. Is our R number or whatever so bad that we stay in the dark?

Are we being over cautious or not?

Some of the behavioural science is suggesting that it would be much harder to effectively impose a second lockdown, if this one is released too early and cases rise rapidly, and that may be why ScotGov is being cautious.

[Callum_62]

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17.28 Italy reports death toll on the rise

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Hopefully a one-off rise. More alarmingly though, their true current death toll is 'estimated to be well in excess of 50,000 when deaths at home and in care homes are ultimately collated and included'

It's probably over 100,000 deaths between the UK and italy

Shocking really

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[blackpoolhibs]

I don't think we have a clue how many people have contacted this, my partner has tested positive, and i have been with her constantly for the last 5 weeks.

Her test could have been wrong, i've not had a test, they wouldn't give me one, but have had some of the symptoms.

There are so many ifs and buts, a lot of it is just pure guesswork.

From being terrified of catching this, to seeing what my partner went through, which was bad enough without going to hospital, to knowing what i had which was nothing, there seems to be such a difference in what everyone goes through, its impossible to know the true figures, or even making a guess at it.

[lord bunberry]

There’s very few things that get me really annoyed, but this has really pissed me off. What a horrible individual
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/...941088769?s=21

[Berwickhibby]

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There’s very few things that get me really annoyed, but this has really pissed me off. What a horrible individual
https://twitter.com/isabeloakeshott/...941088769?s=21

Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

[marinello59]

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Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

Many of them politicians.

[marinello59]

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Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

When this is all over let’s hope that we move far beyond focussing on one company involved in a high profile case to fixing a system overseen by our Governments which has so badly let down a generation of our most vulnerable at their time of need. It’s shameful.

[Hibrandenburg]

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0.27% of the general public (critically outside of care home and hospitals) in England have had C19.

Of that 148,000 how many even knew they had it, how many had mild symptoms and further how many had to visit the hospital?


This kind of information is a continuation of the ‘positive’ news from the Govt and one that should be welcomed and repeated by the Scot Govt.

Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

[lord bunberry]

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Unfortunately the country is full of idiots with the platform of various social media to flaunt their stupidity

That’s true unfortunately.

[lapsedhibee]

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Maybe I'm missing something, but how can it be seen to be positive when only 0.27% of the population have had Covid19 and we've had nearly 34 000 deaths, how high will the death count be when we've had say 25%?

0.27 is a figure for live cases (outside healthcare).

[Hibrandenburg]

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0.27 is a figure for live cases (outside healthcare).

That makes more sense, that's not what PS said in his post though.

[Hibrandenburg]

I see Boris is out showing his appreciation for the NHS again. Merkel does something similar for the German health services, she gives them proper funding.