Coronavirus

[RyeSloan]

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Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

Urmm I think your maths are a bit skewed. You can’t just take 30% of the 84,000 negatives and say they could be positive because an 30% error rate. This is due to the fact that a lot of people taking the test are not infected no matter what the test says.

So It all depends on how many of the 84,000 are expected to be positive in the first place.

For example using an example of 1 in 10 taking the test are positive and 30% being missed by the test then you only miss 3 out of every 100.

So for yesterday that would end up with about 2,500 being a false negative.

[Sylar]

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She mentioned that she 'hasn't ruled out' a regionalised easing of the lockdown in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52662970

If it's getting tricky to follow the varying lockdown measures across the four home nations then this could add a whole new layer of complexity.

That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

[ronaldo7]

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What I took more from today's briefing than in previous days was that I thought she stressed the importance of getting the amount of cases down alongside the R number. Basically saying that you can tolerate a higher R number if you have very few cases. I know it's just commonsense, but I can't recall her giving so much emphasis to it before.

I suppose it's why countries with low levels of existing cases who are now coming out of lockdown won't stress so much about the R number fluctuating so it occasionally hits 1 or between 1 and 2.

Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

[G B Young]

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She looked stressed before it even began today. Time to delegate, there must be others she can trust to take the briefings on a more regular basis.

She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

[G B Young]

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Remember the test isn't reliable, so maybe 25,000 of the 84,000 will have been presenting with Covid symptoms and had Covid.

Part of the reason why news of the new UK antibody test is so important.

[Captain Trips]

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She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

She could just make it go quicker by stating its a nasty question.

[McD]

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She could just make it go quicker by stating its a nasty question.

to be fair, she snapped at the guy before he'd even asked his question, she got quite short (tempered) with him when he was asking if he could be heard

[G B Young]

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That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

I can see why it might be considered bearing in mind that the majority of cases are in the central belt - and indeed you could also look at it for England where there are big differences in infection rates across the country - but as you say the logistics involved would be extremely challenging.

[ronaldo7]

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She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

She answered the Nike question, and gave a more full account. On her acting "really angrily", you must have lead a sheltered life, either that, or you're not married to a Scot.

She got hacked off a bit with, Andy Nicoll, from the Sun, when he tried to generate a headline about Jason Leitch. The Sun, playing politics...Never.

[Captain Trips]

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Today’s numbers represent another small drop in UK deaths, which is good.

I can’t help but still be afraid of what we’re going to see in 2 weeks time though. Seeing the images from the tube and busses in London is horrendous, and just asking for another explosion.

What we may see in 2 weeks they can say that was our own fault, irrespective of why people needed to be on the bus or the tube irrespective of how vital that journey is or was folk made a decision to not socially distance. If you are sitting on tube with plenty of room and next stop 20 folk get on and suddenly people are within 2 feet of you would it bother you less if you knew that person would get sacked if didnt turn up for shift? Sorry i am not saying you in particular Sylar just putting it out there.

Truth is we do not know the people on the commute and as anywhere I am not happy if somebody is encroaching ignorantly into well under my 2m gap texting or chatting on a phone even if they are out getting messages for folk i will never know that.

With every place the reopens the distancing starts to become more difficult as they cant re open if staff cant get there.

[lapsedhibee]

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Urmm I think your maths are a bit skewed. You can’t just take 30% of the 84,000 negatives and say they could be positive because an 30% error rate. This is due to the fact that a lot of people taking the test are not infected no matter what the test says.

So It all depends on how many of the 84,000 are expected to be positive in the first place.

For example using an example of 1 in 10 taking the test are positive and 30% being missed by the test then you only miss 3 out of every 100.

So for yesterday that would end up with about 2,500 being a false negative.

Ok, "up to maybe 25,000". Point I wanted to make is that the current testing is hugely unreliable. Dr David Katz did a spell in an NY hospital at peak and tells a story of 20 patients who all the clinicians were absolutely certain had Covid, and 19 of them tested negative.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Spot on. She had to mention it a few times for the Journos, even though some of them had been at the technical briefings earlier on.

She must be waking every morning and looking at what's getting reported, and feeling like going back to bed.

The STV tweet last night, basically advertising the far right group who want to party in the parks of Scotland on Saturday is well over the top, but not unusual in Scotland.

HC1 care group must be crapping it, as they'll be hauled over the coals when this all finishes.

Care inspectorate take action to cancel HC1 registration for Home Farm.

[heidtheba]

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She may still be smarting from the accusations of a 'cover-up' over the Nike conference the other day. That was the first time I saw her react really angrily at one of these briefings when asked about it.

As you say, she's a politician not an epidemiologist and it must be draining focusing her entire attention day-in day-out on something so far removed from politics. She should delegate a bit more often. I think there have only been a few days when she's done so.

The Nike thing was a difficult one. The contact tracing done was either not done very well, or someone somewhere in the chain of command hasn't told the truth.

[JimBHibees]

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That would be, quite frankly, utter stupidity from the Scottish Government if they do that. If you tell people in North Lanarkshire that they can see their families via a very small social bubble approach, but that people in West Lothian couldn’t do the same, how long do you give it before a family from Shotts are driving to West Calder to see granny...it cannot be policed, unless Police Scotland are going to set up county level road checkpoints.

It was in response to a question about border area and indicated it could happen nothing more than that. She has clearly indicated the importance of clear messaging so imo this will never happen. Honestly no idea why that merited a headline.

[lapsedhibee]

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Part of the reason why news of the new UK antibody test is so important.

Swiss test isn't it? UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

[JimBHibees]

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Swiss test I think. UK haven't bought any yet, just approved it.

Yep developed by Roche based in Switzerland

[ronaldo7]

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Care inspectorate take action to cancel HC1 registration for Home Farm.

Oh well, they can maybe transfer those who travelled to Skye during lockdown, back to Kent then.

https://t.co/nsJjfxGLz1?amp=1

[danhibees1875]

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She mentioned that she 'hasn't ruled out' a regionalised easing of the lockdown in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52662970

If it's getting tricky to follow the varying lockdown measures across the four home nations then this could add a whole new layer of complexity.

Logistically challenging but I don't think it's a terrible proposal so long as there is clear science to back it up and they explain it properly.

I don't think it's too tricky to follow the measures as they currently stand, you pick the one that applies to you based on where you live and follow them.

[Moulin Yarns]

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Logistically challenging but I don't think it's a terrible proposal so long as there is clear science to back it up and they explain it properly.

I don't think it's too tricky to follow the measures as they currently stand, you pick the one that applies to you based on where you live and follow them.

I have a neighbour who is an NHS worker based in Fife, he has relatives in port Glasgow and they have told him that greenock and port Glasgow is like normal at the weekend, groups of people sitting around the town centre drinking and smoking as if there is no danger to themselves.

Neither wonder Inverclyde has the highest numbers of cases and deaths in Scotland.

[Captain Trips]

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I have a neighbour who is an NHS worker based in Fife, he has relatives in port Glasgow and they have told him that greenock and port Glasgow is like normal at the weekend, groups of people sitting around the town centre drinking and smoking as if there is no danger to themselves.

Neither wonder Inverclyde has the highest numbers of cases and deaths in Scotland.

Thought that was their behaviour all week

[Moulin Yarns]

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Thought that was their behaviour all week

It probably is but he only mentioned the weekend because that was when his sister in law went shopping.

[Captain Trips]

This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:

[hibsbollah]

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This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:

It’s Britain First hiding under this new ‘Freedom’ tag. Protests planned all over the country. Hopefully there is nothing to it and you get a few dozen huns singing ‘No Surrender’.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/may/14/police-vow-to-break-up-planned-anti-lockdown-protests-in-uk-cities

[RyeSloan]

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Ok, "up to maybe 25,000". Point I wanted to make is that the current testing is hugely unreliable. Dr David Katz did a spell in an NY hospital at peak and tells a story of 20 patients who all the clinicians were absolutely certain had Covid, and 19 of them tested negative.

Sorry but you still can’t get to 25,000 more positives from only 3,500 actual positives unless the test is as good as useless. Or you have 1 in 3 who are presenting are actually infected and your test is only about 10% accurate. Neither of those two scenarios are remotely likely.

As for the 95% inaccuracy figure from Dr Katz...well who knows but that would suggest the test they did was useless or they didn’t process them correctly. Did he clarify what the result was when they re-tested the patients correctly?

[Callum_62]

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This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:

Muppets

No irony spotted in the say yes to life tag.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

[CropleyWasGod]

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This is a park near me that i enjoy going to, looks like i wont be on Saturday if this nonsense is on the cards:

The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

[grunt]

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The Edinburgh ones are scheduled for Holyrood Park and bizarrely, Hillwood Park, which is in deepest darkest Blackhall. I'm guessing the organiser lives there and fancies a long lie on Saturday.

I hope they stay away from Holyrood Park. It's busy enough as it is on weekends.

[stokesmessiah]

Grant Shapps “when people are speaking to their GP online, why are people still buying paper train tickets”

Eh wtf ??

[lapsedhibee]

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Sorry but you still can’t get to 25,000 more positives from only 3,500 actual positives unless the test is as good as useless. Or you have 1 in 3 who are presenting are actually infected and your test is only about 10% accurate. Neither of those two scenarios are remotely likely.

As for the 95% inaccuracy figure from Dr Katz...well who knows but that would suggest the test they did was useless or they didn’t process them correctly. Did he clarify what the result was when they re-tested the patients correctly?

I didn't say it was 25,000. I agree that's highly unlikely to be a correct figure. You originally chose a figure of 1 in 10 actually infected. Why did you choose that, given that the overwhelming majority of the tests would have been on people who either had symptoms or were in some sort of contact with infected people?

I'm not sure that Katz's patients were re-tested at all. He was in a department mainly concerned with keeping them alive, and the clinicians already knew what they were treating.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Muppets

No irony spotted in the say yes to life tag.

Sent from my VOG-L29 using Tapatalk

One for the Darwin awards.