Scottish Independence

[CloudSquall]

https://www.survation.com/even-split...ntention-poll/

Even 50/50 split between yes and no in latest poll.

SNP at 51% for 2021 constituency vote.

Edit: James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop! Blog is reporting it as a slight Yes lead at 50.2%

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/202...-soar.html?m=1

[CloudSquall]

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And this is something that whoever is in charge of of YES2 needs to get a grip of so that there can be some realistic answers.

This is what infuriates me the most, the SNP / Yes group are constantly on the back foot in these matters instead of being in the attack, I'm pretty sure we'd have constant majorities for independence in the polls if they were more attack minded.

It always seems like it's the grassroots trying to battle the misinformation.

[Ozyhibby]

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https://www.survation.com/even-split...ntention-poll/

Even 50/50 split between yes and no in latest poll.

SNP at 51% for 2021 constituency vote.

Edit: James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop! Blog is reporting it as a slight Yes lead at 50.2%

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/202...-soar.html?m=1

Movement towards yes is all positive just now. Still lots of work to be done.


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[Ozyhibby]

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https://www.survation.com/even-split...ntention-poll/

Even 50/50 split between yes and no in latest poll.

SNP at 51% for 2021 constituency vote.

Edit: James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop! Blog is reporting it as a slight Yes lead at 50.2%

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/202...-soar.html?m=1

Looks like another poll out tonight.


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[JeMeSouviens]

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I’ve lost count of the amount of times this has been debunked.

The Scottish Government is not allowed to have a deficit. It has a fixed budget and has to work within that fixed budget. Any deficit figures that the UK government comes up with is based on borrowing that they have, and applied a proportion to Scotland.
As the UK government don’t provide figures for the ACTUAL tax incomes relating to Scotland, it’s impossible to tell how accurate these figures are or how they might fare for an Independent Scotland.

That's not quite true - the notional "deficit" is:

total SG spending + a proportion of UKG spending allocated "for the benefit of Scotland" - total revenue raised in Scotland

They are estimates and there are things that an iSG would not spend on that the UKG currently does but it's pretty much beyond reasonable dispute that iScotland will start on day 1 with a real deficit significantly above 3% which would be unsustainable in the long term.

[CloudSquall]

Derek Mackay is working on an alternative to GERS that will supposedly show the position of Scotland's finances if we were independent, it will be interesting to see what the results of that show.

[RyeSloan]

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And this is something that whoever is in charge of of YES2 needs to get a grip of so that there can be some realistic answers.

But there in lies the problem.

There is a Scottish Government calculation on the current notional deficit. One they seem quite happy to state is an acceptable representation of the situation even if some (and let’s be clear it is some not all) of it is based on estimation and appropriation.

That notional deficit is routinely brought up as an issue and then immediately dismissed depending on your perspective.

That then leaves a bit of a vacuum. One that was meant to be filled by the Growth Commission.

Unfortunately that didn’t come up with any better reading and openly stated that an Indy Scotland would face a deficit that would effectively need a significant period of austerity to address...so that to was brought up as an issue by some and just as rapidly dismissed by others.

A cynic might say that it’s quite startling that after being trailed as the blue print for so long how quickly that report was buried. Can anyone remember the last time a senior member of the SNP referred to it in anyway recently or use it as the basis for their argument?

So the two key sources of information on what Scotland’s finances might look like have been effectively dismissed by the Indy camp as bollox.

What hasn’t been provided though, from what I have seen (happy to be proven wrong on this one) is any authoritative alternative that is accepted as representative and informative.

So the question seems to remain, just what would the finances of an Indy Scotland look like in the first few years and what would that mean for the nation?

[Ozyhibby]

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Derek Mackay is working on an alternative to GERS that will supposedly show the position of Scotland's finances if we were independent, it will be interesting to see what the results of that show.

There would have to be a lot of hypotheticals in there.
I prefer just to look at all the similar size European countries and think if they can do it, and they have a higher standard of living than us then why can’t we?
Nobody has ever explained to me why Scotland has to be poorer than Denmark and yet we are and apparently we should just accept that. I’ve never once heard a Uk politician talk about a plan to grow Scotland’s economy to the size of Ireland’s or Denmark’s. They have no interest in doing so. They literally don’t care.


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[JeMeSouviens]

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But there in lies the problem.

There is a Scottish Government calculation on the current notional deficit. One they seem quite happy to state is an acceptable representation of the situation even if some (and let’s be clear it is some not all) of it is based on estimation and appropriation.

That notional deficit is routinely brought up as an issue and then immediately dismissed depending on your perspective.

That then leaves a bit of a vacuum. One that was meant to be filled by the Growth Commission.

Unfortunately that didn’t come up with any better reading and openly stated that an Indy Scotland would face a deficit that would effectively need a significant period of austerity to address...so that to was brought up as an issue by some and just as rapidly dismissed by others.

A cynic might say that it’s quite startling that after being trailed as the blue print for so long how quickly that report was buried. Can anyone remember the last time a senior member of the SNP referred to it in anyway recently or use it as the basis for their argument?

So the two key sources of information on what Scotland’s finances might look like have been effectively dismissed by the Indy camp as bollox.

What hasn’t been provided though, from what I have seen (happy to be proven wrong on this one) is any authoritative alternative that is accepted as representative and informative.

So the question seems to remain, just what would the finances of an Indy Scotland look like in the first few years and what would that mean for the nation?

That's not actually true. The GC report says it will not implement austerity. The IFS analysis of the GC report then said that it would be roughly equivalent to Tory spending plans which the SNP were calling a continuation of austerity and thus that by their own definition they should be calling the GC plan austerity also.

It is also inconsistent to claim that these plans do not amount to austerity but the UK government’s current policy does. While the UK government did reduce total public spending by an average of 0.2% a year in real-terms between 2009–10 and 2016–17, since then, it has eased off somewhat. Between 2016–17 and 2022–23, total public spending excluding debt interest payments is forecast to grow by an average of 0.7% a year in real-terms. The Commission’s proposals for 0.5% increases per year therefore look remarkably like an extension of current policy in the UK

Of course the big difference between the GC plan for iScotland is that getting the deficit (however big it turns out to be) under control is necessary whereas in the UK it is driven by Tory ideology and that the GC plan would boost spending if growth picks up whereas the Tories aim to suppress it in all circumstances. Actually the last point might not be true of Johnson himself who apparently loves a grandiose project if he thinks there's retrospective credit on offer.

[JeMeSouviens]

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There would have to be a lot of hypotheticals in there.
I prefer just to look at all the similar size European countries and think if they can do it, and they have a higher standard of living than us then why can’t we?
Nobody has ever explained to me why Scotland has to be poorer than Denmark and yet we are and apparently we should just accept that. I’ve never once heard a Uk politician talk about a plan to grow Scotland’s economy to the size of Ireland’s or Denmark’s. They have no interest in doing so. They literally don’t care.


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On the contrary, they actually have a current and pressing imperative for Scotland's economy to perform as badly as possible and they are absolutely gleeful if they get any figures that can be purposed in that direction.

[Ozyhibby]

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On the contrary, they actually have a current and pressing imperative for Scotland's economy to perform as badly as possible and they are absolutely gleeful if they get any figures that can be purposed in that direction.

Watching unionists celebrate Scotland’s poor economic performance annually is a particularly depressing part of Scottish life.


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[CloudSquall]

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There would have to be a lot of hypotheticals in there.
I prefer just to look at all the similar size European countries and think if they can do it, and they have a higher standard of living than us then why can’t we?
Nobody has ever explained to me why Scotland has to be poorer than Denmark and yet we are and apparently we should just accept that. I’ve never once heard a Uk politician talk about a plan to grow Scotland’s economy to the size of Ireland’s or Denmark’s. They have no interest in doing so. They literally don’t care.


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I do think we should be asking unionists why the Norwegian and Danish GDP figures dwarf ours.

In Scotland we focus almost obsessively on the deficit % but never look at why we lag so far behind similar sized countries in terms of GDP (which raises the point that a larger GDP would reduce the deficit as % of GDP automatically)

[Ozyhibby]

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I do think we should be asking unionists why the Norwegian and Danish GDP figures dwarf ours.

In Scotland we focus almost obsessively on the deficit % but never look at why we lag so far behind similar sized countries in terms of GDP (which raises the point that a larger GDP would reduce the deficit as % of GDP automatically)

If we had a GDP in line with those similar sized Northern European economies we wouldn’t have a deficit at all.



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[Ozyhibby]

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/...d-of-scotland/

Well worth a read.


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[weecounty hibby]

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SNP Government trying to hide bad news about the Scottish Economy.

"Scottish economic output or GDP has fallen by 3%, reducing the overall value of the economy by £5 billion.
The revision of the figures to £175 billion from £180 billion is revealed in the Scottish Government’s quarterly national accounts.

The accounts also show that the Scottish economic deficit of £12.6 billion has now risen to 7.2% of GDP, when it was previously 7%.
This downward revision moves Scotland further away from the European Union’s requirement that to join the EU, a state’s deficit must be no more than 3%.
The reduction is largely attributable to a revision in the value of North Sea oil and exacerbated by sluggish economic growth.
The GDP figures emerged at the weekend, having not been announced by the Scottish Government in its economic press release, nor were they available on the usual statistical website."

The big question for independence pro EU supporters, how does Scotland reduce it's budget deficit to 3% from 7.2% thus allowing it to meet the requirements to join the EU?

And you had the cheek to talk about the SNP lying. That is the biggest lie being perpetuated by unionists at the moment. The Scottish government has a balanced budget because they can't actually borrow. This "deficit" is a made up number by Westminster from spend they attribute to Scotland. Things like HS2, Crossrail etc, you know all those things that benefit Scotland are part of that number

[Slavers]

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And you had the cheek to talk about the SNP lying. That is the biggest lie being perpetuated by unionists at the moment. The Scottish government has a balanced budget because they can't actually borrow. This "deficit" is a made up number by Westminster from spend they attribute to Scotland. Things like HS2, Crossrail etc, you know all those things that benefit Scotland are part of that number

In regards to the Scottish economy I'm just going by the official figures and then what is detailed by the EU themselves in regards to access requirements.

Those are hardly big fat unionist lies they are just comments on the facts.

[weecounty hibby]

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In regards to the Scottish economy I'm just going by the official figures and then what is detailed by the EU themselves in regards to access requirements.

Those are hardly big fat unionist lies they are just comments on the facts.

But they are easily proven to be incorrect. But folk like Ian Murray, Alex Cole Hamilton, Willie Rennie, you and any other number of union supporters keep trotting that line out. Check out the other posts above for links etc to why it is wrong and why the 3% figure is a myth. Hopefully that will be the unionists best argument in the upcoming campaign as it's not really a very good one.

[Slavers]

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But they are easily proven to be incorrect. But folk like Ian Murray, Alex Cole Hamilton, Willie Rennie, you and any other number of union supporters keep trotting that line out. Check out the other posts above for links etc to why it is wrong and why the 3% figure is a myth. Hopefully that will be the unionists best argument in the upcoming campaign as it's not really a very good one.

3% is stated by the EU themselves its not a myth.

Yes you may gain access with a deficit above 3% but Scotland would then need to agree to a plan to reduce deficit but that will be hard for people to swallow since mostly the SNP grievance is about austerity and having control of their budget.

[weecounty hibby]

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3% is stated by the EU themselves its not a myth.

Yes you may gain access with a deficit above 3% but Scotland would then need to agree to a plan to reduce deficit but that will be hard for people to swallow since mostly the SNP grievance is about austerity and having control of their budget.

But your last few words are the key. Having control of the budget. Theron lies the problem, we have no control at the moment and cannot pull the levers that will help us to grow our economy not just to try to save. Thanks for your help. You seem to firmly believe everything that the Brexiteers have been saying about how rosy the UK outside of Europe will be but just can't accept that a Scotland outside of the UK will be able to manage its affairs and become a successful small nation. I just can't get my head around how little belief some folk have in the people, resources, industry, farmers, fishermen, etc etc in Scotland to be a success with England holding our hands and telling us how we should do things

[Slavers]

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But your last few words are the key. Having control of the budget. Theron lies the problem, we have no control at the moment and cannot pull the levers that will help us to grow our economy not just to try to save. Thanks for your help. You seem to firmly believe everything that the Brexiteers have been saying about how rosy the UK outside of Europe will be but just can't accept that a Scotland outside of the UK will be able to manage its affairs and become a successful small nation. I just can't get my head around how little belief some folk have in the people, resources, industry, farmers, fishermen, etc etc in Scotland to be a success with England holding our hands and telling us how we should do things

You have no problem with EU imposed austerity but Tory austerity is the evil of the world. We had years of austerity due to the mess labour left the country in.

I'm not dead against scottish independence but for me now is not the time. I just see chaos for years as we try and meet entry requirements for the EU whilst dissolving a 300 year old union with the UK.

If I had to choose between unions I'd choose a union of the home nations of the British isles rather than one with the EU. It makes no sense to me to leave the UK and then join the EU as we trade 4 times the amount with the UK compared with the EU. We share the same island as the home nations it makes sense to join a union with your closest neighbours IMO.

[Steven79]

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You have no problem with EU imposed austerity but Tory austerity is the evil of the world. We had years of austerity due to the mess labour left the country in.

I'm not dead against scottish independence but for me now is not the time. I just see chaos for years as we try and meet entry requirements for the EU whilst dissolving a 300 year old union with the UK.

If I had to choose between unions I'd choose a union of the home nations of the British isles rather than one with the EU. It makes no sense to me to leave the UK and then join the EU as we trade 4 times the amount with the UK compared with the EU. We share the same island as the home nations it makes sense to join a union with your closest neighbours IMO.

If we were actually in a "union" then it might be a half decent idea.

But this is not an "union" of equals and never has been.

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[Ozyhibby]

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In regards to the Scottish economy I'm just going by the official figures and then what is detailed by the EU themselves in regards to access requirements.

Those are hardly big fat unionist lies they are just comments on the facts.

They are not facts though. The are guesstimates. The Uk govt does need keep seperate figures for Scotland.


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[Mibbes Aye]

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And you had the cheek to talk about the SNP lying. That is the biggest lie being perpetuated by unionists at the moment. The Scottish government has a balanced budget because they can't actually borrow. This "deficit" is a made up number by Westminster from spend they attribute to Scotland. Things like HS2, Crossrail etc, you know all those things that benefit Scotland are part of that number

Your last sentence raises a smile. The Scottish Government and the Scottish Executive prior to that, poured a lot of money into the Bathgate-Airdrie train line and the Borders Railway.

What benefit do you think there was for say, somebody living in Caithness and Sutherland?

A lot of people up there would tell you that what matters to them is a downgrade in services at Caithness General Hospital, meaning that people in Wick and the like, who had a general hospital on their doorstep, now face a two and a half hour drive to Raigmore in Inverness for a number of services. And that's not a fun journey in winter.

But the government in Edinburgh prioritised the railway lines because, I imagine, the cost-benefit analysis was they would be better for the country as a whole, than pouring money into Caithness General to retain the clinical services that were lost. And likewise a bunch of other things would have fallen by the wayside for the sake of those train lines.

To cast up HS2 and Crossrail and say that Scotland somehow loses out as a result is imbecilic and churlish. UK governments take decisions at a UK level. Scottish governments take decisions at a Scottish level. Big capital programmes almost invariably mean there will be money spent that could be put elsewhere and money gravitates towards the centre - Londan and the corridor to the North-West cities at UK level; the Central Belt and unlocking tourist income into the Borders, from Edinburgh, at Scottish level.

[Ozyhibby]

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You have no problem with EU imposed austerity but Tory austerity is the evil of the world. We had years of austerity due to the mess labour left the country in.

I'm not dead against scottish independence but for me now is not the time. I just see chaos for years as we try and meet entry requirements for the EU whilst dissolving a 300 year old union with the UK.

If I had to choose between unions I'd choose a union of the home nations of the British isles rather than one with the EU. It makes no sense to me to leave the UK and then join the EU as we trade 4 times the amount with the UK compared with the EU. We share the same island as the home nations it makes sense to join a union with your closest neighbours IMO.

We won’t need any austerity if we get our economy performing in line with the other small nations of Europe.


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[Ozyhibby]

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Your last sentence raises a smile. The Scottish Government and the Scottish Executive prior to that, poured a lot of money into the Bathgate-Airdrie train line and the Borders Railway.

What benefit do you think there was for say, somebody living in Caithness and Sutherland?

A lot of people up there would tell you that what matters to them is a downgrade in services at Caithness General Hospital, meaning that people in Wick and the like, who had a general hospital on their doorstep, now face a two and a half hour drive to Raigmore in Inverness for a number of services. And that's not a fun journey in winter.

But the government in Edinburgh prioritised the railway lines because, I imagine, the cost-benefit analysis was they would be better for the country as a whole, than pouring money into Caithness General to retain the clinical services that were lost. And likewise a bunch of other things would have fallen by the wayside for the sake of those train lines.

To cast up HS2 and Crossrail and say that Scotland somehow loses out as a result is imbecilic and churlish. UK governments take decisions at a UK level. Scottish governments take decisions at a Scottish level. Big capital programmes almost invariably mean there will be money spent that could be put elsewhere and money gravitates towards the centre - Londan and the corridor to the North-West cities at UK level; the Central Belt and unlocking tourist income into the Borders, from Edinburgh, at Scottish level.

So did the uk govt help fund the railway line in Scotland?


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[Hibrandenburg]

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They are not facts though. The are guesstimates. The Uk govt does need keep seperate figures for Scotland.


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I'd wager they do, they just keep them very close to their chests.

[weecounty hibby]

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You have no problem with EU imposed austerity but Tory austerity is the evil of the world. We had years of austerity due to the mess labour left the country in.

I'm not dead against scottish independence but for me now is not the time. I just see chaos for years as we try and meet entry requirements for the EU whilst dissolving a 300 year old union with the UK.

If I had to choose between unions I'd choose a union of the home nations of the British isles rather than one with the EU. It makes no sense to me to leave the UK and then join the EU as we trade 4 times the amount with the UK compared with the EU. We share the same island as the home nations it makes sense to join a union with your closest neighbours IMO.

I cannot stand the Tories but I agree the financial mess started with Labour. Sadly both Labour and the Tories allowed the guilty parties to get away with how they were playing fast and loose with our monies.
I would prefer that we grew the economy rather than just cutting services to reduce the "defecit". As I have said I do not believe that the number being used is correct as there are costs attributed to Scotland that just don't belong there.
I think that I would rather be in a union with countries that are outward looking, inclusive, welcoming, supportive to the smaller nations and in an equal partnership. Those are not adjectives you would use to describe England or our relationship at the moment.
The more I see the way England is going the less I want to be in a union with them. The four nations are disintegrating and it is all down to England. Independence for Scotland will happen, Ireland will reunify and the Welsh Indy movement is growing and getting more organised. When the UK breaks up the ones most to blame will be the English nationalists

[CloudSquall]

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You have no problem with EU imposed austerity but Tory austerity is the evil of the world. We had years of austerity due to the mess labour left the country in.

I'm not dead against scottish independence but for me now is not the time. I just see chaos for years as we try and meet entry requirements for the EU whilst dissolving a 300 year old union with the UK.

If I had to choose between unions I'd choose a union of the home nations of the British isles rather than one with the EU. It makes no sense to me to leave the UK and then join the EU as we trade 4 times the amount with the UK compared with the EU. We share the same island as the home nations it makes sense to join a union with your closest neighbours IMO.

Do we need a union with the rest of the UK to trade with them?

[StevieC]

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So did the uk govt help fund the railway line in Scotland?

They wouldn’t even help with funding for the Queensferry Crossing so I very much doubt it.

[CloudSquall]

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So did the uk govt help fund the railway line in Scotland?


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Imbecilic and churlish, you keep funding English only projects while Scotland funds by itself Scottish projects so the likes of Mibbes Ayes can feel good about themselves