Scottish Independence

[xyz23jc]

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61% in favour of the Scottish Parliament having the decision to hold a legal 2nd referendum on independence.



https://www.progressscotland.org/res...s-for-holyrood

But, but, but...... 2014 Will of the People etc. C. Ian Murray.

[Hibrandenburg]

Scottish Government told to gtf regarding having a say on immigration. Boris is going to look after our needs.

[NAE NOOKIE]

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Scottish Government told to gtf regarding having a say on immigration. Boris is going to look after our needs.

That's because it isn't a government. As far as Westminster is concerned, be that the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems, Holyrood is nothing more than a glorified regional council and that would be the case for them no matter who was running it.

What's needed here is a conversation around exactly what Scotland became when it entered into the 'union' There is nothing in the act which said Scotland, or England for that matter, gave up their right's as individual nations, only that there was an agreement that both parliaments would sit in London as the parliament of Britain or the UK. 90% of the act of union deals with trade, taxation and the right of succession to the throne. Not the dissolution of the countries of Scotland and England for all time to create the country of Britain.

This isn't my theory, but it's an interesting take on things and having read the 'act' I can see where the proponents of it are coming from. If every Scottish seat at Westminster was occupied by an SNP MP what would there be to stop them all decanting to Edinburgh, saying they were reconvening the 'real' Scottish parliament and declaring an end to the union there and then?

[Steven79]

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That's because it isn't a government. As far as Westminster is concerned, be that the Tories, Labour or the Lib Dems, Holyrood is nothing more than a glorified regional council and that would be the case for them no matter who was running it.

What's needed here is a conversation around exactly what Scotland became when it entered into the 'union' There is nothing in the act which said Scotland, or England for that matter, gave up their right's as individual nations, only that there was an agreement that both parliaments would sit in London as the parliament of Britain or the UK. 90% of the act of union deals with trade, taxation and the right of succession to the throne. Not the dissolution of the countries of Scotland and England for all time to create the country of Britain.

This isn't my theory, but it's an interesting take on things and having read the 'act' I can see where the proponents of it are coming from. If every Scottish seat at Westminster was occupied by an SNP MP what would there be to stop them all decanting to Edinburgh, saying they were reconvening the 'real' Scottish parliament and declaring an end to the union there and then?

They don't even need every Scottish seat as they majority they have right now would be enough.

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[Curried]

Some comedy gold from the Village Idiot during yesterday’s independence debate in Holyrood:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222543082362753025

[CloudSquall]

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Some comedy gold from the Village Idiot during yesterday’s independence debate in Holyrood:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1222543082362753025

https://mobile.twitter.com/agcoleham...93938952609792

His partner in crime Alex Cole-Hamilton provided some comedy too as he tried to explain his vote against keeping the EU flag up at Holyrood.

From what I understand he voted in favour when it was unionist Dugsdale who proposed keeping it up, but voted against when it was an SNP motion

[Curried]

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https://mobile.twitter.com/agcoleham...93938952609792

His partner in crime Alex Cole-Hamilton provided some comedy too as he tried to explain his vote against keeping the EU flag up at Holyrood.

From what I understand he voted in favour when it was unionist Dugsdale who proposed keeping it up, but voted against when it was an SNP motion

The lad’s got principles and is clearly aspiring to be Flipper Davidson’s replacement in the house :-)

Is he truly suggesting in that twitter rant that the European Flag being flown at Holyrood will promote violence akin to the NI troubles?

[Moulin Yarns]

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The lad’s got principles and is clearly aspiring to be Flipper Davidson’s replacement in the house :-)

Is he truly suggesting in that twitter rant that the European Flag being flown at Holyrood will promote violence akin to the NI troubles?

I hope not because I will be flying one outside my house from tomorrow.

[SHODAN]

Why have no opinion polls on independence been published since the election?

[grunt]

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Why have no opinion polls on independence been published since the election?

You called?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...dence_Jan_2020

[CloudSquall]

It's a tricky situation for the SNP, there is a significant group within the Yes camp wanting a referendum asap this year but looking at that poll the best way to ensure a Yes vote would be to hold it in the next few years as demographics / Brexit take more of an effect.

[weecounty hibby]

That is before campaigning begins. Start of the last campaign had yes at 26%. it's coming and it can't come quickly enough.

[JeMeSouviens]

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You called?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...dence_Jan_2020

In reality, it continues the run of virtual dead heats but it's a psychological boost nonetheless.

Under the hood, the age profile stays much the same as usual: Yes well ahead under 50s but miles behind with 65+. Interestingly the ABC1 vs C2DE difference has disappeared.

Also, questionably, Yougov appear to still be weighting by 2014 ref vote which seems a bit suspect given it's almost 5 1/2 years ago.

[danhibees1875]

Whichever way Scotland goes, the relationship between the EU and the UK is going to be quite an important factor.

I think it makes sense to wait to see what that looks like before considering another referendum.

[JeMeSouviens]

Like this YG graphic showing the churn going on underneath the relatively static headlines:

[Ozyhibby]

Interesting first poll since Johnson said No to Scotland. Wonder how long he will think this a good idea?


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[Ozyhibby]

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In reality, it continues the run of virtual dead heats but it's a psychological boost nonetheless.

Under the hood, the age profile stays much the same as usual: Yes well ahead under 50s but miles behind with 65+. Interestingly the ABC1 vs C2DE difference has disappeared.

Also, questionably, Yougov appear to still be weighting by 2014 ref vote which seems a bit suspect given it's almost 5 1/2 years ago.

And the poll doesn’t include 16-17 year olds who I’m sure were allowed to vote in 2014?


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[SHODAN]

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And the poll doesn’t include 16-17 year olds who I’m sure were allowed to vote in 2014?


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It does. Doesn't include EU citizens though.

[CloudSquall]

The age breakdown is mental (excluding DKs),


Under 50s

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

Under 65s

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Over 65s

Yes: 25%
No: 75%




It's only a matter of time based on that, but is there anything the SNP / Yes campaign can do to turn some of that 75% of over 65s to Yes for a referendum in the next 1 to 2 years?

[Steven79]

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The age breakdown is mental (excluding DKs),


Under 50s

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

Under 65s

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Over 65s

Yes: 25%
No: 75%




It's only a matter of time based on that, but is there anything the SNP / Yes campaign can do to turn some of that 75% of over 65s to Yes for a referendum in the next 1 to 2 years?

Offer them the same pensions as other EU countries.

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[Bristolhibby]

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The age breakdown is mental (excluding DKs),


Under 50s

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

Under 65s

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Over 65s

Yes: 25%
No: 75%




It's only a matter of time based on that, but is there anything the SNP / Yes campaign can do to turn some of that 75% of over 65s to Yes for a referendum in the next 1 to 2 years?

How about ask them to talk to their grandchildren and listen to what they have to say. Also recognise your own mortality. They are the future, not you.

J

[Ozyhibby]

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How about ask them to talk to their grandchildren and listen to what they have to say. Also recognise your own mortality. They are the future, not you.

J

That’s not going to do it. That generation is wedded to the union. They believe in it. There is nothing wrong with that. I have always believed that the best case for the union is if you feel British first and foremost. I think that’s a good reason to be a no voter.
All the other reasons are a bit of a nonsense. The economy could either be better or worse after independence but that will be down to the choices we make. Being independent and making your own decisions is more important. Especially now that we see democracy being taken away.


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[Mixu62]

Haven't read the whole of this thread so don't know if this has been covered, but I was looking at some of the numbers recently. The No vote won last time, by 1.8M to 1.4M. A gap of 400,000 votes. A quick google search told me there are approx 209000 EU citizens in Scotland, who would of course have been more likely to vote No last time given what they were told about staying in the Union being the only path to ensuring EU membership. Now I'm no mathematician, but you subtract 200k from 1.8M and add it to 1.4M and it's 50/50. Now obviously it's not as clear cut as that, not all of them will be eligible to vote but those who are will be more motivated to do so given what's at stake, so I'd expect the turnout in this group to be higher than average.

Add in the changes in demographics that have been covered. However, sadly this also may not be as clear cut as first glance suggests. While it's true that it was the over 65's who voted overwhelmingly No, and that you'd expect that demographic to have a higher mortality rate (being replaced with 6 years of school leavers who are proportionately more likely to be Yessers) it's also true that it was lower socio-economic area's that voted Yes (Source - The Demographics of Independence - The Common Weal). It's also sadly true that lower socio-economic status has a large impact on life expectancy, so (again sadly, and in a wealthy country, disgracefully) the mortality rate among <65 year old Yesers is probably similar to the >65 No's.

In short, it's probably still 50/50, though maybe 50.01/49.99. Given that the Yes campaign started at about 30% in polls leading up to the referendum in 2014 and ended up at almost 45%, I think Yes will have the numbers this time.

[ACLeith]

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The age breakdown is mental (excluding DKs),


Under 50s

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

Under 65s

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Over 65s

Yes: 25%
No: 75%




It's only a matter of time based on that, but is there anything the SNP / Yes campaign can do to turn some of that 75% of over 65s to Yes for a referendum in the next 1 to 2 years?

What's the source for these stats? Not disputing them, as they seem right, but were they from the actual poll or an opinion poll? There's nothing wrong with being in a minority and standing up for what you believe in, so happy to be part of the 25%!

With my friends in the same age bracket, I find it is roughly 50/50. I do sense a shift towards "yes" though, the reason being Brexit and Johnston. It would be easy, but a mistake IMO, to rush things at this stage through anger, 25 years after we achieve independence it won't have mattered that we waited say a year for the tide to have swung significantly.

[lapsedhibee]

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Haven't read the whole of this thread so don't know if this has been covered, but I was looking at some of the numbers recently. The No vote won last time, by 1.8M to 1.4M. A gap of 400,000 votes. A quick google search told me there are approx 209000 EU citizens in Scotland, who would of course have been more likely to vote No last time given what they were told about staying in the Union being the only path to ensuring EU membership. Now I'm no mathematician, but you subtract 200k from 1.8M and add it to 1.4M and it's 50/50. Now obviously it's not as clear cut as that, not all of them will be eligible to vote but those who are will be more motivated to do so given what's at stake, so I'd expect the turnout in this group to be higher than average.

Add in the changes in demographics that have been covered. However, sadly this also may not be as clear cut as first glance suggests. While it's true that it was the over 65's who voted overwhelmingly No, and that you'd expect that demographic to have a higher mortality rate (being replaced with 6 years of school leavers who are proportionately more likely to be Yessers) it's also true that it was lower socio-economic area's that voted Yes (Source - The Demographics of Independence - The Common Weal). It's also sadly true that lower socio-economic status has a large impact on life expectancy, so (again sadly, and in a wealthy country, disgracefully) the mortality rate among <65 year old Yesers is probably similar to the >65 No's.

In short, it's probably still 50/50, though maybe 50.01/49.99. Given that the Yes campaign started at about 30% in polls leading up to the referendum in 2014 and ended up at almost 45%, I think Yes will have the numbers this time.

This suggestion is aired quite a lot - that because there was a surge for a particular faction in a previous vote, there will be a similar surge in the next vote. The dafter elements of the Labour Party, like Burgon, were spouting it often in the run up to the GE. Complete nonsense!

[SHODAN]

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The age breakdown is mental (excluding DKs),


Under 50s

Yes: 66%
No: 34%

Under 65s

Yes: 59%
No: 41%

Over 65s

Yes: 25%
No: 75%




It's only a matter of time based on that, but is there anything the SNP / Yes campaign can do to turn some of that 75% of over 65s to Yes for a referendum in the next 1 to 2 years?

It really is a "once in a generation" thing because in a generation's time it'll be something like 65% Yes. I suspect by then the UK government will have forced through some Spain-style "secession is illegal" law by then.

[StevieC]

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Given that the Yes campaign started at about 30% in polls leading up to the referendum in 2014 and ended up at almost 45%, I think Yes will have the numbers this time.

I’m not so sure that you can count on that level of change unless you can find out why there was such a large shift.

I suspect that there would have been very few that had given much thought to Independence, and therefore happy enough with the status quo, but would have formed an alternative opinion as they became more engaged in the campaigns. I don’t think there will be any where near that level of swing second time around, a lot more people will already be entrenched in their views.

[grunt]

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What's the source for these stats? Not disputing them, as they seem right, but were they from the actual poll or an opinion poll?.

Yes they’re from the YouGov poll linked above.

[Bristolhibby]

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This suggestion is aired quite a lot - that because there was a late surge for a particular faction in a previous vote, there will be a similar surge in the next vote. The dafter elements of the Labour Party, like Burgon, were spouting it often in the run up to the GE. Complete nonsense!

It wasn’t a surge, it was a slow build up over the life of the campaign. Peaking a couple of days before the referendum. That then prompted the vow.

J

[lapsedhibee]

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It wasn’t a surge, it was a slow build up over the life of the campaign. Peaking a couple of days before the referendum. That then prompted the vow.

J

Fair enough. Have removed the "late" from my post. Still, there is no justification imo for relying on there being a similar uptick in a future period of campaigning.