General election 2019

[Ozyhibby]

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It’s the yougov mrp, best performing poll model in 2017.

Early leaks to journalists are supposedly saying a Tory majority of about 55 seats.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

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Early leaks to journalists are supposedly saying a Tory majority of about 55 seats.


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How utterly depressing.

[wpj]

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Is Johnston jewish?

Is that relevant?

[Mibbes Aye]

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Big poll out tonight which should show if tactical voting is likely to be a big factor. Huge data sample (200k I think). Should show individual constituencies. Out at 10pm.


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It will be interesting but some caveats apply.

That sample is still only 300 people per constituency. I do the online YouGov polls and I am not sure that they are as sophisticated enough to tackle individual constituencies based on what I get asked, though they may be sampling in a different way. PopulusLive seem to be more forensic, though they are pretty ruthless in screening demographically, and I am not convinced that doesn’t skew things either.

Saying all that I have a relatively limited understanding of survey methods and statistical analysis. I think the results might point to some very broad trends but I would be hesitant of reading too much into them this far out from Election Day.

[Ozyhibby]

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It will be interesting but some caveats apply.

That sample is still only 300 people per constituency. I do the online YouGov polls and I am not sure that they are as sophisticated enough to tackle individual constituencies based on what I get asked, though they may be sampling in a different way. PopulusLive seem to be more forensic, though they are pretty ruthless in screening demographically, and I am not convinced that doesn’t skew things either.

Saying all that I have a relatively limited understanding of survey methods and statistical analysis. I think the results might point to some very broad trends but I would be hesitant of reading too much into them this far out from Election Day.

Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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[GlesgaeHibby]

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Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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Seemingly it came out a week before the election last time round. Hopefully polls continue to narrow over the next two weeks.

[Ozyhibby]

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[Mon Dieu4]

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Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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My Mum is of that age bracket and missed out by a couple of months, she pished herself laughing at claim they will be able to do this and she is politically fairly neutral

[CloudSquall]

#GE2019

seat projection, MRP model:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LDEM: 13

via @YouGov


Tom Kyte...

[Ozyhibby]

Decent result for snp.


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[Glory Lurker]

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#GE2019

seat projection, MRP model:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LDEM: 13

via @YouGov


Tom Kyte...

That would involve more than an acceptable amount of Tory seats surviving in Scotland (acceptable amount is of course zero!).

[GlesgaeHibby]

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Decent result for snp.


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Only two Scottish Tories losing seats in the model. Hopefully they can be wiped out up here again come election day.

[allmodcons]

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Decent result for snp.


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What good will it do if the Tory majority is as big as is being projected. Basically, Scotland is ****ed. Pulled out of Europe against her will and being dictated to by yet
another Tory **** for christ knows how long. I am in a fortunate position financially but genuinely worry for those who struggle to make ends meet. This bunch of right wing *******s care for nobody but themselves.

[Ozyhibby]

The you gov poll is a bit out of date and shows a Tory lead of 11 points. More recent polls this week show that lead down to about 7pts so it’s possible that this majority won’t happen.


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[CloudSquall]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

[Ozyhibby]

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[Ozyhibby]

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https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

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[Mon Dieu4]

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https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

Can check your constituency here, Edinburgh West is quite the knife edge.

Can't possibly just be me that thinks thats the worst map of Scotland ever created

[Frankhfc]

What's happened to the Greens? Only one seat? I'm very surprised at that.

[CloudSquall]

Jo Swinson has a 5% lead, she could be up for a Portillo moment (again).

[Mibbes Aye]

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Especially this week when Labour have offered the waspi women £20k each. That would be enough to buy a lot of votes. Polls do appear to be narrowing and the data from this poll will be about a week old.


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Yeah and it turns out to be closer to 150 people per constituency. Like you say it isn’t current data and based on a question of who you would vote for ‘today’.

Much room for twists and turns and certainly a good few news cycles to accommodate gamechanging moments.

[Colr]

Only 3 changes in London and in Corbyn central Labour increasing their vote. No Libdem breakthrough as their vote seems to have collapsed.

[Bristolhibby]

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What's happened to the Greens? Only one seat? I'm very surprised at that.

First Past the Post.

J

[CloudSquall]

There's so many marginals in Scotland it's going to be hard to predict what actually happens on the day.


I think the Tory vote is holding up north of the border in the north and south, beyond Murray Labour aren't holding on to anything, will be interesting to see how the SNP / Lib Dem marginals of Caithness and North East Fife go.


Tories are going balls to the walls with the "no2indyref2" campaign, nothing else north of the border from them apart from that.

[Callum_62]

How many seats do they SNP need to be allowed to thibk about indyref again?

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[G B Young]

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There's so many marginals in Scotland it's going to be hard to predict what actually happens on the day.


I think the Tory vote is holding up north of the border in the north and south, beyond Murray Labour aren't holding on to anything, will be interesting to see how the SNP / Lib Dem marginals of Caithness and North East Fife go.


Tories are going balls to the walls with the "no2indyref2" campaign, nothing else north of the border from them apart from that.

From today's Guardian story announcing a late shift in strategy by Labour in the wake of the latest polls:

"Labour canvassers have been reporting that Jeremy Corbyn's leadership has come up time and again on the doorstep."

My sister lives in Ian Murray's constituency and told me that they had Labour canvassers at the door a couple of nights ago. When she said Corbyn was putting her off voting Labour they told her not to worry about that because he wasn't going to win and that they hoped she would simply vote for Murray as a good local MP!

[Callum_62]

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From today's Guardian story announcing a late shift in strategy by Labour in the wake of the latest polls:

"Labour canvassers have been reporting that Jeremy Corbyn's leadership has come up time and again on the doorstep."

My sister lives in Ian Murray's constituency and told me that they had Labour canvassers at the door a couple of nights ago. When she said Corbyn was putting her off voting Labour they told her not to worry about that because he wasn't going to win and that they hoped she would simply vote for Murray as a good local MP!

LOL, what a message that is

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[Cataplana]

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LOL, what a message that is

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What a toley. He is using the support of the party machine, whilst briefing against the party.

[Pretty Boy]

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What a toley. He is using the support of the party machine, whilst briefing against the party.

Corbyn employed that very tactic for years in his constituency campaigning when New Labour was a thing.

[Ozyhibby]

I hope the people in England who lean towards the Labour Party are bringing their memberships up to date because there will be leadership campaign after the election and how it goes could finish the Labour Party for good if they go full communist again.


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