Brexit - What Now.

[Fife-Hibee]

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It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

Newcastle isn't going to be an all too appealing prospect if the flow of capital isn't going there. Businesses want to expand into a large open market, not an insular one where free trade and capital are scarce.

[speedy_gonzales]

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Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

Whoah, probably the best keeper of all time, doubt he's bumbled that much to be fair!

[ballengeich]

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Geography isn't everything, especially in this day and age. Businesses will expand where the money and market demand is. Whether that be next door, or several hundred miles over seas.

That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

[CloudSquall]

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It is. Like the brexiteers, you are ignoring geography. England is our nearest neighbours and it’s very important that we can trade freely with them. A Scottish business that wants to expand is going to look at Newcastle before it thinks of Portugal.


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A lot would be dependent on the type of product, food and drink especially whisky would be looking to the Far East or Latin America for growth now.

[Ozyhibby]

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A lot would be dependent on the type of product, food and drink especially whisky would be looking to the Far East or Latin America for growth now.

Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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[Fife-Hibee]

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That's what those in favour of a no-deal Brexit have been telling us all along.

They're referring to trade beyond Europe where free trade agreements and quality control don't apply.

[Fife-Hibee]

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Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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Well we'll certainly struggle with that attitude. The argument is pretty straight forward. What is better for business and the overall wealth of society? Trade with an insular country with severely limited trading options, or free trade with an entire continent with strict quality control laws to protect the rights and health of consumers?

If we can't drill such an easy argument home, then we deserve the worst.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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I agree especially in the short term. However, it’s worth saying that Ireland has achieved its economic potential while reducing its exports to the UK to approx 20% of their total.

[puff the dragon]

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I agree especially in the short term. However, it’s worth saying that Ireland has achieved its economic potential while reducing its exports to the UK to approx 20% of their total.

but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

[Hibbyradge]

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Of course but a lot of our economy is made up of more humdrum stuff. And something less glam like a plumbers merchant will likely expand into England where the language is the same rather than the continent.
I really think we will struggle to persuade people that border checks are a price worth paying for independence.


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Unless there's a no deal Brexit and it's as an even higher bigger cluster****** than many are predicting, the need for a border between Scotland and England will kibosh independence.

A vote in favour of independence is not a certainty now, even with no border issue, and no matter how loud people shout, or try to point out the logical benefits of EU v UK, the margin to remain would be more than 55% - 45% if there was.

[JeMeSouviens]

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but how much of the non-UK 80% has to pass through a UK port on its way to its destination?

as I said earlier a deal is happening:
* the worst hit by no deal will be ROI - UK is big enough to ride it out.
* to support ROI out of trouble they are going to need significant EU support (specifically Germany) - does Merkel have the appetite for carrying another nation alongside Greece, Italy & Spain?

Roughly half is services so no ports there. For the goods I don’t know.

The economic impact of no deal is awful for Ireland but even worse for the UK. Ireland is currently running a surplus so has some cushion. The UK still in deficit which will get much bigger. We will ride it out by seeing the poor of the UK get ****ed.

[Ozyhibby]

Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?


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[puff the dragon]

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Ireland has its own ports, lots of them?


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all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

[Hibbyradge]

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all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

That's not entirely true. Irish cargo sails directly into continental European ports. Rotterdam and Antwerp being the main ones, I think.

[Ozyhibby]

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all of which sail to Great Britain, then onwards to their end destination.

there are very few routes direct to mainland Europe as the time takes 18 to 24 hours at sea. Big problem if goods are perishable.

Do you mean ferries? I’m pretty sure container ships will sail direct to Europe. Would cost a lot more to sail a container to uk, then drive it across the country and onto another boat to Europe?


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[Ozyhibby]

Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.


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[puff the dragon]

This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

clearly Ireland have a big issue if there is a no deal brexit due to the big sea barrier and the UK being a land obstacle to shorten any distance. Saying that they will just sail is over simplifying the solution and impractical.

looked up an article I read on it a while ago - it’s here if you’re interested - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460 (headline if not - 85% docks in UK - 60% stays in UK and other 40% onward to Europe)

[puff the dragon]

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Quick google search shows dublin port moves about 38m tonnes of goods a year. Leith moves about 1m tonnes.


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just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

[Moulin Yarns]

Just putting this up about ROI trade.


http://www.worldstopexports.com/irel...port-partners/

[Hibbyradge]

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just the 30m tonnes that end up on UK soil then..........

It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

[Ozyhibby]

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This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

clearly Ireland have a big issue if there is a no deal brexit due to the big sea barrier and the UK being a land obstacle to shorten any distance. Saying that they will just sail is over simplifying the solution and impractical.

looked up an article I read on it a while ago - it’s here if you’re interested - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44657460 (headline if not - 85% docks in UK - 60% stays in UK and other 40% onward to Europe)

That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.


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[Hibbyradge]

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That whole article only deals with roll on roll off ferries. That’s important for perishable goods as you say but container ships carry half of all Ireland’s exports and I doubt they are unloading them in the uk and the reloading them at another port.


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They are.

[Hibbyradge]

Here's a direct route to Europe https://www.dfds.com/en-gb/freight-s...europe-ireland

And here's another https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.iri...496%3fmode=amp

And they're planning more https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.iri...248%3fmode=amp

[JeMeSouviens]

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This is the problem with political discussion these days - nobody wants facts, they only want to hear what supports their opinion.

You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

[puff the dragon]

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It's certainly more convenient and quicker to use the land bridge that the UK offers, but other sailing routes will be found if needs be.

The whole of Europe, including Ireland, will suffer if there's a no deal Brexit, but the UK will be worst hit and by a stretch.

not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

[puff the dragon]

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You’re right but you’ve just done exactly what you castigate in others. The UK will be fine on account of its size is just nonsense.

I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

[Hibrandenburg]

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Don’t see a problem with a border between England and Scotland if there is no border between Scotland and Europe.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the border between Scotland and England once again becomes the peripheral post where the civilised world meets the under developed world?

[JeMeSouviens]

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I never said it would be fine - remove your blinkers everyone. I’m saying we will suffer but will ride the storm better than Ireland who would need substantial support from the EU (in particular Germany) to see them through it.

everyone is getting to caught up on what they want to happen (remainders stay and leavers getting a no deal) they are missing what is actually going to happen - there will be no 2nd referendum, we are leaving the EU, May’s deal with a reworked Irish border solution will be pushed through for the 31st October.

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...46877?mode=amp


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[puff the dragon]

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Why would Ireland need support but the UK wouldn’t? You don’t have evidence to back that up, you’re just guessing.

In the deal situation, both UK and EU want one but then again they already have one. The danger is that if the UK really has moved far enough it will lose the DUP & spartan erg again.

UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.