Brexit - What Now.

[JeMeSouviens]

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Dear lord. Excuse the ignorance but is that from a legit group with significant standing/following?!

It's from Leave.eu, the Arron Banks/Farage campaign group = the provisional wing of Leave.

[Ozyhibby]

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A new Brexit report from the IFS says even the threat of Brexit so far has cost the UK economy 2.5-3% of output (£50-60 BILLION pounds).

It predicts a no deal Brexit would push borrowing higher and put UK national debt at 90% of GDP, a 50-year high.

We need the IFS to knock up one of those for iScotland staying in the EU v leaving with rUK.


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[JeMeSouviens]

Nicholas Watt @nicholaswatt

Former member of Theresa May’s cabinet not convinced by No 10 account of Angela Merkel’s thinking on #brexit. ‘It was about as convincing as Dick Van Dyke’s cockney accent in Mary Poppins.’

[Pretty Boy]

It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

[JeMeSouviens]

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It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

I'd say this goes beyond a hint to be fair ...

Nicola Sturgeon @NicolaSturgeon

Both Labour and the Lib Dems need to grow up. Who leads a temporary govt that will be in office for just a matter of days is not the key issue. What matters is getting this Tory government out, securing an extension and then having a General Election ASAP.

[SHODAN]

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Get this to ****, I want out of this madness.

[Mantis Toboggan]

Their twitter account is a ****ing disgrace

[JeMeSouviens]

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It's time for every opposition party to put partisan loyalties to one side for the time being and agree to work together tactically to get these nut jobs out of power in the long term and to thwart this personal no deal crusade in the short term.

Nicola Sturgeon has already hinted she would be open to supporting a transitional government in the right circumstances. Maybe the time has come for the SNP, Labour, the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid and any independents to really sit down and come to an acceptable consensus. That's potentially 325 MPs on side and discounting the speaker and Sinn Fein abstainers gives both a degree of influence and forces Jo Swinson to decide where her loyalties really lie. With the Lib Dems on side it should be possible to bring down the government and form a unity government until a no deal Brexit is avoided and an extension granted.

Beyond that there is obviously the matter of a general election and how to play that tactically but it's almost reached a stage at which everything has to be done on a day to day basis.

You also need a decent number of the 21 Tory rebels that are currently sitting as Independents. Some of them will be hard to get onside as they still have half an eye on a Tory career after Johnson. Bringing the govt down is effectively burning the last bridge.

[CloudSquall]

1966 will see us through boys

Edit: Did no one bother to check Germany's World Cup record before printing?

[Cataplana]

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I'd say this goes beyond a hint to be fair ...

Hosie was on Newsnight a couple of weeks ago, when asked who would be a suitable caretaker, he suggested Kier Stalmer. Definitely up for a deal IMO.

[Bristolhibby]

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You also need a decent number of the 21 Tory rebels that are currently sitting as Independents. Some of them will be hard to get onside as they still have half an eye on a Tory career after Johnson. Bringing the govt down is effectively burning the last bridge.

Na, it’s the first step back to reclaiming their BREXIT/UKIP infiltrated party.

J

[CloudSquall]

Latest polling from Comres..


"If the EU doesn't agree to Boris Johnson's proposals for a Brexit deal, the UK should leave on 31st Oct without a deal:

Agree: 42%
Disagree: 40%

via
@ComRes
, 04 - 06 Oct"




"I will feel...

Relieved if we do not leave the EU on 31 Oct:
Agree: 37%
Disagree: 45%

Angry if we do not leave the EU on 31 Oct:
Agree: 40%
Disagree: 44%

via
@ComRes
, 04 - 06 Oct"



The UK would struggle to be any more divided..

[GlesgaeHibby]

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****ing hell...genuinely can't believe that's real. Xenophobic, racist ****.

[The Harp Awakes]

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This kind of stuff will now become commonplace sadly. This is where the language e.g., surrender act, used by Boris and his fellow extremists over the last weeks inevitably takes us. Add in a willingness to break the law and it mobalises the fascists.

I've always wanted Scotland to be independent through it's own free will, but the UK may soon implode as a result of English nationalism.

[JeMeSouviens]

The Brexiters actually remind me a lot of the old Rangers. Carried away on their own tide of triumphalism and hubris. When it all started to implode, their exceptionalist mindset told them everything would be fine because of who they were and in the end everybody would cave because the world revolved around them.

They probably all sing that song about German bombers as well.

[lapsedhibee]

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I've followed the whole Brexit saga pretty closely since the referendum result, watched a lot of Parliament TV, etc etc, and reckon I understand a great deal of what's gone and going on. But one thing I cannot get my head round at all, no matter how hard I try - why on earth do Brexiters complain that they are misrepresented as being thick?

[Ozyhibby]

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ale...mpression=true


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[Mibbes Aye]

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A new militarised empire - I’m assuming that is EU ‘version next’, with the usual robust governance, accountability, and a joint defence policy to deal with 21C issues, while remaining progressive, democratic and socially liberal.

Where do I sign up?

[Bristolhibby]

I’ve noticed the arguments from hardline Brexit supporters often talk about an “EU Army”.

Rising to near hysteria at the thought of their children / grandchildren getting conscripted into an European Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-franco-german

[Mibbes Aye]

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I’ve noticed the arguments from hardline Brexit supporters often talk about an “EU Army”.

Rising to near hysteria at the thought of their children / grandchildren getting conscripted into an European Army.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-franco-german

It is a good article and does well to highlight the anti-piracy work that is the most prominent example of EU military co-operation, very much driven by the UK.

The other thing that interests me is that much of Europe phased out conscription but there has been a trend to reintroduce some form of national service, not necessarily in the military but in the community or in social care.

It (national service, not necessarily military) has never been something that seems to have been popular here, I think it may have been mooted at some point by Brown or Cameron or their advisers, which I guess suggests it has some centrist appeal, but not enough traction to attract enough support.

Curiously, given the SNP and a lot of supporters seem to be keen to promote a sense of civic nationalism, I wonder whether this would be fertile ground for them - promoting a form of national service, not militaristic by choice, but contributing something to the civic good?

[Ozyhibby]

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It is a good article and does well to highlight the anti-piracy work that is the most prominent example of EU military co-operation, very much driven by the UK.

The other thing that interests me is that much of Europe phased out conscription but there has been a trend to reintroduce some form of national service, not necessarily in the military but in the community or in social care.

It (national service, not necessarily military) has never been something that seems to have been popular here, I think it may have been mooted at some point by Brown or Cameron or their advisers, which I guess suggests it has some centrist appeal, but not enough traction to attract enough support.

Curiously, given the SNP and a lot of supporters seem to be keen to promote a sense of civic nationalism, I wonder whether this would be fertile ground for them - promoting a form of national service, not militaristic by choice, but contributing something to the civic good?

Conscription is forced labour and should have no place in any modern liberal society. Once it starts it will grow.
If a govt has work it needs done then it should raise taxes and pay people to do that work of its own free will.



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[Bristolhibby]

I like the civic nationalism thing. The problem in this day and age is how the hell do we pay for it?

I also don’t like the idea of being forced to do something.

I think it (National Service) has been too far gone to come back.

We question things more. Back in the day, if you were told to go, you went. We and this generation won’t do that.

J

[Ozyhibby]

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I like the civic nationalism thing. The problem in this day and age is how the hell do we pay for it?

I also don’t like the idea of being forced to do something.

I think it (National Service) has been too far gone to come back.

We question things more. Back in the day, if you were told to go, you went. We and this generation won’t do that.

J

And rightly so.


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[puff the dragon]

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

[Ozyhibby]

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There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

You should put money on all that happening. You’ll be absolutely loaded.


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[puff the dragon]

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You should put money on all that happening. You’ll be absolutely loaded.


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already on the 16/1 leave with a deal on the 31st of October dude. An investment

[lapsedhibee]

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Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

Johnson is way too fat to be a top level goalkeeper.

[CloudSquall]

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There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

I thought I was risking it by going through a bottle of wine tonight however I'd love to have been on whatever you've taken to write that up

[mjhibby]

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I thought I was risking it by going through a bottle of wine tonight however I'd love to have been on whatever you've taken to write that up

Me too. Order me a case of what you've been drinking. It's sounds like an amazing tipple.

[Mibbes Aye]

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There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.