Brexit - What Now.

[G B Young]

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Not really. If you went to sell your car and didn't like the deal, you'd keep it and drive it home. You wouldn't crash it into the nearest tree and then walk.

In that instance you'd presumably just find another buyer, which is not an option with Brexit. The EU are the only 'buyer' on the market and a very reluctant one at that, hence the reason you need to maintain a threat to walk away from the deal in the hope it will persuade them to improve their offer. Of course the deal is further complicated by the fact that the 'seller' is not the sole owner of the car. They're more like the nominated driver of a vehicle which has been utilised by a large number of passengers, the majority of whom have voted to sell it. However, a combination of squabbling over the price by those who wish to sell it and a backdrop of moaning from those who wanted to keep the vehicle has led to the nominated driver being replaced, probably by one who will have fewer qualms about driving it into a tree to end the impasse.

[G B Young]

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I think they are elected to represent their constituents' interests, rather than their views. That's how a Tory MP can represent a Labour voter, and vice versa.

I'm not sure that applies here. Whether or not it proves to be in a constituency's best 'interests' to leave the EU a local MP is not, as far as I'm aware, elected because he or she is perceived to 'know better' than those who elected them. When a clear majority of your constituents vote to leave it's surely beholden on a democratically elected MP to respect any further expression of democracy within his or her constituency. To do otherwise would smack of an arrogance that will ultimately see that MP voted out of office.

This seems to be the biggest problem with referendums ie that too many MPs or MSPs think they know better than the electorate and because, unlike general elections which come round every few years, they can't handle the fact there's not another chance to have things their way. Hence why we now live in a seemingly endless cycle of attempts to block Brexit and to force another Scottish independence referendum.

[lapsedhibee]

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I'm not sure that applies here. Whether or not it proves to be in a constituency's best 'interests' to leave the EU a local MP is not, as far as I'm aware, elected because he or she is perceived to 'know better' than those who elected them. When a clear majority of your constituents vote to leave it's surely beholden on a democratically elected MP to respect any further expression of democracy within his or her constituency. To do otherwise would smack of an arrogance that will ultimately see that MP voted out of office.

What do you mean, further expression of democracy?

[Ozyhibby]

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What do you mean, further expression of democracy?

Since the EU referendum we have since voted in a parliament that seems reluctant to carry it through. As that is a more recent democratic vote surely that is more important?


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[Bristolhibby]

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Presumably most represent leave voting constituencies and, rightly in my view, feel that they were elected to represent the views of those who put them in parliament rather than follow the ever shifting stance that their party takes on Brexit.

Wish the Scottish Tories were this moral when it comes to votes in Parliament.

J

[JeMeSouviens]

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I'm not sure that applies here. Whether or not it proves to be in a constituency's best 'interests' to leave the EU a local MP is not, as far as I'm aware, elected because he or she is perceived to 'know better' than those who elected them. When a clear majority of your constituents vote to leave it's surely beholden on a democratically elected MP to respect any further expression of democracy within his or her constituency. To do otherwise would smack of an arrogance that will ultimately see that MP voted out of office.

This seems to be the biggest problem with referendums ie that too many MPs or MSPs think they know better than the electorate and because, unlike general elections which come round every few years, they can't handle the fact there's not another chance to have things their way. Hence why we now live in a seemingly endless cycle of attempts to block Brexit and to force another Scottish independence referendum.

Actually that's precisely how representative democracy is supposed to work.

Edmund Burke - "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

MPs should have the necessary intellect, access to all the relevant evidence and the time that you and I might not necessarily have to come to a judgement. You don't like his/her judgements then you have the chance to vote them out next election.

In the case of Brexit, it ought to be, by now, overwhelmingly obvious to MPs that it's a stupid idea that should be dropped quicker than Boris' latest mistress. Unfortunately not enough of them have the metaphorical balls to do it.

[G B Young]

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What do you mean, further expression of democracy?

An MP is democratically elected by virtue of attracting more votes than any other candidate in his or her constituency at a General Election. This is, by and large, accepted and respected by all concerned. We don't, for example, see a losing candidate and his or her supporters stage a campaign to reverse the result simply because they don't like it. On that basis, it surely follows that when we see another democratic vote within that constituency (ie Brexit) that the sitting MP should accept and respect the majority opinion. That doesn't mean they shouldn't also take on board the views of those who voted against Brexit but to actively go against the majority decision delivered by those he represents in parliament would seem to be a dereliction of his or her responsibilities to them.

[G B Young]

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Actually that's precisely how representative democracy is supposed to work.

Edmund Burke - "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

MPs should have the necessary intellect, access to all the relevant evidence and the time that you and I might not necessarily have to come to a judgement. You don't like his/her judgements then you have the chance to vote them out next election.

In the case of Brexit, it ought to be, by now, overwhelmingly obvious to MPs that it's a stupid idea that should be dropped quicker than Boris' latest mistress. Unfortunately not enough of them have the metaphorical balls to do it.

Is that the definitive standard to which all MPs must adhere or simply Burke's opinion?

[Bristolhibby]

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An MP is democratically elected by virtue of attracting more votes than any other candidate in his or her constituency at a General Election. This is, by and large, accepted and respected by all concerned. We don't, for example, see a losing candidate and his or her supporters stage a campaign to reverse the result simply because they don't like it. On that basis, it surely follows that when we see another democratic vote within that constituency (ie Brexit) that the sitting MP should accept and respect the majority opinion. That doesn't mean they shouldn't also take on board the views of those who voted against Brexit but to actively go against the majority decision delivered by those he represents in parliament would seem to be a dereliction of his or her responsibilities to them.

That analogy doesn’t work.

J

[JeMeSouviens]

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An MP is democratically elected by virtue of attracting more votes than any other candidate in his or her constituency at a General Election. This is, by and large, accepted and respected by all concerned. We don't, for example, see a losing candidate and his or her supporters stage a campaign to reverse the result simply because they don't like it. On that basis, it surely follows that when we see another democratic vote within that constituency (ie Brexit) that the sitting MP should accept and respect the majority opinion. That doesn't mean they shouldn't also take on board the views of those who voted against Brexit but to actively go against the majority decision delivered by those he represents in parliament would seem to be a dereliction of his or her responsibilities to them.

By the same token, that would give licence to any MP in a remain seat to do whatever they liked to oppose Brexit?

I agree with you to the extent that if parliament is going to bottle its responsibility to decide things and hold a referendum instead, then parliament should be bound by the result.

However, the problem with Brexit (from start to finish) though is that there are many different forms of Brexit and the soft end (Norway style) is arguably closer to remain than the hard end of no deal. What was promised by the Brexiters, complete sovereign control with no economic downside, ie. having cake and eating it, has (surprise!) proved impossible to implement. It's ridiculous to claim a mandate for no deal from a vote including people who voted for Norway.

I think they need to either pick a specific version of Brexit and put that to a ref2 vs remain or just cancel it altogether.

The problem with ref2 is that they will pick no deal and then the same set of lying *****bags that won ref1 will update their lies to show that they can still have their cake and eat it. The Tory leadership candidates already have this process well underway. The EU are about to back down, they'll get a "managed" no deal, GATT art 24 will come to the rescue in a way that every trade commentator has already dismissed as TOTAL AND UTTER ****ING NONSENSE, magical technology that nobody is developing will fix the Irish border, they can just go and negotiate directly with Germany/Ireland/France/the Tooth Fairy and Barnier's team will be cut out of the loop. Blah, blah and more ****ing blah.

[G B Young]

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That analogy doesn’t work.

J

Why not? Here's Labour's Lisa Nandy, a staunch remainer but MP for a staunchly pro-Brexit constituency on what she sees as her responsibility to her constituents:


"I may take a different view to many of my constituents on Brexit, but I like and respect them enough to know that wanting to leave the EU is not the same as being stupid or racist, as they have too often been labelled. They listened to the economic arguments I, and others, put forward in 2016 and took a judgment to vote leave. I am yet to meet more than a handful of people who have changed their minds.

"Every time I talk about this I am told I should be resolutely making the argument for remain. But I and others did exactly that in 2016, spending months in the most sceptical towns of the North West, North East and Midlands making the case for the many and varied benefits of EU membership. We weren’t very much helped by a national campaign which championed the economic benefits of remaining. After decades of relative decline, and much EU structural fund investment focused on rebuilding our great cities, it just didn’t cut it among many people in towns who had seen jobs disappear and young people leave, and it still doesn’t.

"Almost universally on the doorstep questions about a second referendum are largely greeted with bewilderment. I am reminded frequently that we’ve had one already and it’s time for Parliament to get on with it."

[JeMeSouviens]

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Why not? Here's Labour's Lisa Nandy, a staunch remainer but MP for a staunchly pro-Brexit constituency on what she sees as her responsibility to her constituents:


"I may take a different view to many of my constituents on Brexit, but I like and respect them enough to know that wanting to leave the EU is not the same as being stupid or racist, as they have too often been labelled. They listened to the economic arguments I, and others, put forward in 2016 and took a judgment to vote leave. I am yet to meet more than a handful of people who have changed their minds.

"Every time I talk about this I am told I should be resolutely making the argument for remain. But I and others did exactly that in 2016, spending months in the most sceptical towns of the North West, North East and Midlands making the case for the many and varied benefits of EU membership. We weren’t very much helped by a national campaign which championed the economic benefits of remaining. After decades of relative decline, and much EU structural fund investment focused on rebuilding our great cities, it just didn’t cut it among many people in towns who had seen jobs disappear and young people leave, and it still doesn’t.

"Almost universally on the doorstep questions about a second referendum are largely greeted with bewilderment. I am reminded frequently that we’ve had one already and it’s time for Parliament to get on with it."

Or in other words, I know Brexit's crap but I want to keep my job. It's not exactly high principle.

[Jones28]

Fully anticipate no-deal now, with Johnson being effectively sworn in after two rounds of votes. This is mental, and not the good kind of "we've just won the Scottish cup" bewildered mental.

[BroxburnHibee]

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Fully anticipate no-deal now, with Johnson being effectively sworn in after two rounds of votes. This is mental, and not the good kind of "we've just won the Scottish cup" bewildered mental.

Yep we mock the yanks for electing Trump now a few thousand Tory party members are about to force our own version on us.

[Ozyhibby]

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Yep we mock the yanks for electing Trump now a few thousand Tory party members are about to force our own version on us.

To be fair, everyone in this country knows this is how PM’s are picked so it’s not really the Tory members fault. It’s our fault for voting in the Tories or voting no in 2014 or whatever democratic decision you may think led us here. Either way, its democracy in action.


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[Moulin Yarns]

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To be fair, everyone in this country knows this is how PM’s are picked so it’s not really the Tory members fault. It’s our fault for voting in the Tories or voting no in 2014 or whatever democratic decision you may think led us here. Either way, its democracy in action.


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Not strictly true.

Prime minister is normally voted because of being leader of a party and they become prime minister through a general election.

We are about to have our second prime minister through party members only

[marinello59]

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Not strictly true.

Prime minister is normally voted because of being leader of a party and they become prime minister through a general election.

We are about to have our second prime minister through party members only

Strictly speaking we don’t vote for a PM or even a Government in a general election. We vote for a local representative.

[Ozyhibby]

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Not strictly true.

Prime minister is normally voted because of being leader of a party and they become prime minister through a general election.

We are about to have our second prime minister through party members only

We’ve had lots more than two PM’s this way.


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[James310]

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We’ve had lots more than two PM’s this way.


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May, Brown and Major are 3 off the top of my head in recent times. The next one will be the fourth and I am sure as you say plenty more.

Nicola Sturgeon became FM when Salmond stood down.

[Fife-Hibee]

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May, Brown and Major are 3 off the top of my head in recent times. The next one will be the fourth and I am sure as you say plenty more.

Nicola Sturgeon became FM when Salmond stood down.

Sturgeon was deputy First Minister so the move was very much expected.

[Ozyhibby]

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Sturgeon was deputy First Minister so the move was very much expected.

Yip but the principle is the same. We don’t elect individual heads of state, we elect representative to go to parliament and they then choose a leader. Both the Tories and Labour now consult party members but that’s up to them.


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[ronaldo7]

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Sturgeon was deputy First Minister so the move was very much expected.

She became leader of the SNP, and then had an election to become FM in the Scottish Parliament, and was opposed by, Ruth Davidson. 66 votes to 15. 39 abstentions.

Ruth lost that election as well. I make it, 8 in a row now.

[Fife-Hibee]

.

[JeMeSouviens]

A neat visualisation of why the EU is a bit more relaxed about No Deal than the Brexiters (still!) think:

[Moulin Yarns]

There are so many threads that this could go on.

Westminster VI





https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/...732580352?s=19

[Callum_62]

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There are so many threads that this could go on.

Westminster VI





https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/...732580352?s=19

So it's a fairly easy change in Govt in a general election most likley

Doesn't sit well with me during the Conservative leadership contest them all saying they'd never call a GE

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[HiBremian]

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There are so many threads that this could go on.

Westminster VI





https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/...732580352?s=19

Opinion polling volatility has gone off the radar recently, suggesting a lot of people seem to be all over the place. But maybe, just maybe, it's because the vast majority of voters don't pay much attention to politics. And with traditional political loyalties dissolving over the past 20 years, it maybe shouldn't be so surprising in the current climate.

My take is that we'll leave the EU on 31 October on a mildly re-worded version of the WA, that maybe emphasises more the Tories' aim of being out of all EU institutions. It'll be sold by Johnson to his own MPs on a "back me or sack me" basis, sugared with the key prospect of a subsequent general election. He'll have enough Labour MP votes to counter the DUP. The attraction (to Tory MPs) of a GE after leaving the EU is that he will have pleased the "just get on with it" brigade. They, the majority of voters who don't pay attention, vastly outnumber the rabid no-dealers, and will this time vote for the buffoon because he, to quote a famous football term, "delivered". The Tories will then be returned with a majority of 50 or so seats, ready to negotiate with a more amenable HoC behind them. The Brexit Party and Corbyn will both be history.

But BoJo himself will lose his seat in Uxbridge to Ali Milani, leaving the winning party without a PM

[Moulin Yarns]

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Opinion polling volatility has gone off the radar recently, suggesting a lot of people seem to be all over the place. But maybe, just maybe, it's because the vast majority of voters don't pay much attention to politics. And with traditional political loyalties dissolving over the past 20 years, it maybe shouldn't be so surprising in the current climate.

My take is that we'll leave the EU on 31 October on a mildly re-worded version of the WA, that maybe emphasises more the Tories' aim of being out of all EU institutions. It'll be sold by Johnson to his own MPs on a "back me or sack me" basis, sugared with the key prospect of a subsequent general election. He'll have enough Labour MP votes to counter the DUP. The attraction (to Tory MPs) of a GE after leaving the EU is that he will have pleased the "just get on with it" brigade. They, the majority of voters who don't pay attention, vastly outnumber the rabid no-dealers, and will this time vote for the buffoon because he, to quote a famous football term, "delivered". The Tories will then be returned with a majority of 50 or so seats, ready to negotiate with a more amenable HoC behind them. The Brexit Party and Corbyn will both be history.

But BoJo himself will lose his seat in Uxbridge to Ali Milani, leaving the winning party without a PM

But....


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-brexit-deal-talks-boris-johnson-renegotiation-irish-back-stop-border-a8975666.html

[HiBremian]

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But....


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8975666.html

Sorry, should have said, the rewording will be the political declaration about the future relationship. He'll sell the WA "as is", easy for the general public, but requiring bullying plus sweeties for his MPs.

[Hibernia&Alba]

I think we will leave on Halloween with no deal. Having thrown the Tory membership so much red meat with his vehement EU bashing, Bozo won't be able to do anything else. His concern is his own career, and it would be suicide for him to u-turn now. The EU will not re-negotiate the withdrawal agreement (nor should they) and the UK government cannot get anything through parliament. I can only forsee leaving with no deal; any other outcome would be astonishing, in my opinion.