The EU Referendum (How did you vote?)

***The Modfather*** · 26-05-2019 10:21 AM

Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

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Ah, but it would actually be a thread

Yes, however....

Ach, we could be here all day 😀

***RyeSloan*** · 26-05-2019 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by grunt

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Classic brexit wishful thinking, ignoring three years of evidence to the contrary. Think back to the Government's own impact analyses - the ones they denied preparing and tried so hard to avoid us seeing. Every forecast has us worse off than before.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...alities-brexit

Honestly it’s nothing to do with ‘Brexit wishful thinking’ and as for government forecasts and analysis. Well yes the UK Treasury did the same before the Brexit vote and stated that a vote to leave would cause an immediate and prolonged recession...my lack of faith in these types forecasts and models has been detailed here many tines before.

What I’m saying is that I do not put as much weight into trade deals and the pro’s of the EU as others. To me there are a number of pros and a number of cons (some examples being the gross inefficiency of the CAP that sucks up a huge amount of EU money and the fact that the EU seems permanently unable to audit its own spending).

The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

In my mind they will ultimately probably all balance out down the line and, after a period of adjustment that may impact some more than others, business and trade will carry on pretty much as before once the political and regulatory environment is clarified.

So as stated that’s why I wasn’t overly bothered either way and certainly why I’m not inclined to be a chicken licken about leaving but on the flip side why I’m also no Farage either.

Btw I’m also similar in Indy although I see greater risks relating to Indy than I do Brexit. I’m sure Indy wold deliver some pros but I’m also sure there is a hell of a lot of risk (like the currency debate highlights) that is not being fully highlighted or worse being deliberately under played. I’m therefore inclined to believe the potential cons will not be worth the effort.

Ultimately then you could probably summarise my position as I was happy for Scotland to stay in the Union and happy for the UK to stay in the EU as changing either was a path fraught with division and risk and with no certainty of material gain at the end of it all.

5 years on from Indy ref and 3 from Brexit ref nothing has happened that has persuaded me that view wasn’t correct!

***lord bunberry*** · 26-05-2019 11:00 AM

Originally Posted by James310

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If Nicola Sturgeon links literally everything to an Independence Referendum then these treads will stray into those topics. If Nicola Sturgeon was waiting for a number 5 bus and the 4 turned up she would demand an Independence Referendum.

If Ruth Davidson was waiting for a number 5 bus and a number 4 came, shed get on it and claim she was waiting for the number 4 all along.

***lapsedhibee*** · 26-05-2019 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by lord bunberry

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If Ruth Davidson was waiting for a number 5 bus and a number 4 came, shed get on it and claim she was waiting for the number 4 all along.

If Jezza was waiting for a number 5 bus and two arrived at the same time he'd get on them both - but only if they were going in opposite directions.

***Hibbyradge*** · 26-05-2019 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by The Modfather

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Should it not be a “Grammatical Arguments Forum”?

Nae need.

Reported.

***Hibbyradge*** · 26-05-2019 11:20 AM

Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

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Possibly, but surely no need for capital letters on arguments or forum.

Or grammatical.

***Hibbyradge*** · 26-05-2019 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

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If Jezza was waiting for a number 5 bus and two arrived at the same time he'd get on them both - but only if they were going in opposite directions.

***Smartie*** · 26-05-2019 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by RyeSloan

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Honestly it’s nothing to do with ‘Brexit wishful thinking’ and as for government forecasts and analysis. Well yes the UK Treasury did the same before the Brexit vote and stated that a vote to leave would cause an immediate and prolonged recession...my lack of faith in these types forecasts and models has been detailed here many tines before.

What I’m saying is that I do not put as much weight into trade deals and the pro’s of the EU as others. To me there are a number of pros and a number of cons (some examples being the gross inefficiency of the CAP that sucks up a huge amount of EU money and the fact that the EU seems permanently unable to audit its own spending).

The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

In my mind they will ultimately probably all balance out down the line and, after a period of adjustment that may impact some more than others, business and trade will carry on pretty much as before once the political and regulatory environment is clarified.

So as stated that’s why I wasn’t overly bothered either way and certainly why I’m not inclined to be a chicken licken about leaving but on the flip side why I’m also no Farage either.

Btw I’m also similar in Indy although I see greater risks relating to Indy than I do Brexit. I’m sure Indy wold deliver some pros but I’m also sure there is a hell of a lot of risk (like the currency debate highlights) that is not being fully highlighted or worse being deliberately under played. I’m therefore inclined to believe the potential cons will not be worth the effort.

Ultimately then you could probably summarise my position as I was happy for Scotland to stay in the Union and happy for the UK to stay in the EU as changing either was a path fraught with division and risk and with no certainty of material gain at the end of it all.

5 years on from Indy ref and 3 from Brexit ref nothing has happened that has persuaded me that view wasn’t correct!

There is quite a lot in here that I can relate to.

In the end I voted to remain, but on the day I nearly didn't bother. As that time I didn't have anything like the same strength of feeling as I have now, mainly because I didn't have the same knowledge I think I have now.

I don't think in a UK sense there will be anything like the problems predicted by many. There will be a a few bumps in the road but one way or another the country will weather the worst of the problems and take the odd opportunity presented.

What it won't do is be the great salvation for the poor that it is meant to be. There will be many people who have been made promises, the EU have been made into the a demon and when that demon is gone these people will still be poor, probably poorer and have less chance than ever of being able to hoist themselves up the way.

When they look for the next thing to blame they'll be only too happy to listen to Boris' bollocks about Scotland. It's us Jocks with our free this and free that who are enjoying the life of Reilly at their expense without contributing.

And they might have a point. Brexit will be ok for the UK - it will be catastrophic for Scotland. Having our financial policies and immigration policies directed from a hostile London prevents us from having the levers required to improve our lot and reduced EU immigration in particular is what is going to cripple us.

There is, of course, an answer to that. Unlike you, I think it will be worth the effort.

I just don't know how much misery is going to have to be endured, and by whom, before that happens.

***Colr*** · 26-05-2019 12:58 PM

Rumours that Labour has done rather badly in London.

***allmodcons*** · 26-05-2019 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by Colr

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Rumours that Labour has done rather badly in London.

Who's benefiting? Lib Dems?

**~~Bangkok Hibby~~** · 26-05-2019 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by Colr

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Rumours that Labour has done rather badly in London.

Although very probably true it can only be rumours just now, because it's against UK election law to publish exit polls until all voting is cast

***Ozyhibby*** · 26-05-2019 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by allmodcons

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Who's benefiting? Lib Dems?

In London it may be Change UK? If they can’t do well in London they are toast.

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***grunt*** · 26-05-2019 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by RyeSloan

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The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

Thanks for your considered reply.

I don't think I've ever heard a "pro" for leaving that I actually believed would ultimately improve our lot.

***Colr*** · 26-05-2019 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by allmodcons

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Who's benefiting? Lib Dems?

That's what I hear.

***Colr*** · 26-05-2019 03:42 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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In London it may be Change UK? If they can’t do well in London they are toast.

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ChangeUK have put some good candidates up in London but they really haven't got their message out.

They don't really have a party machine like the Liberals do (who are very well organised in London) and they're not really smart enough to use social media to its full potential.

They've got some way to go to make an impact.

***Colr*** · 26-05-2019 03:43 PM

Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

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Although very probably true it can only be rumours just now, because it's against UK election law to publish exit polls until all voting is cast

That's right but people talk. People like election agents.

**~~Bangkok Hibby~~** · 26-05-2019 04:01 PM

Originally Posted by Colr

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That's right but people talk. People like election agents.

***SHODAN*** · 26-05-2019 04:04 PM

When are we going to find out?

***Ozyhibby*** · 26-05-2019 04:11 PM

Originally Posted by Diclonius

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When are we going to find out?

10pm the programmes start tonight. North east expected by 10.30 ish. They have a thing about being first to count. Scotland not till tomorrow because western Isles won’t count on a Sunday.

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***lapsedhibee*** · 26-05-2019 04:25 PM

Originally Posted by grunt

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Thanks for your considered reply.

I don't think I've ever heard a "pro" for leaving that I actually believed would ultimately improve our lot.

Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

***Hibrandenburg*** · 26-05-2019 04:34 PM

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

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Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

Don't forget blue passports and we'll be able to stop the muslimification of the UK by stopping EU citizens coming here and spreading their equal rights and employee friendly term and conditions rubbish.

***Mibbes Aye*** · 26-05-2019 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

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Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

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Don't forget blue passports and we'll be able to stop the muslimification of the UK by stopping EU citizens coming here and spreading their equal rights and employee friendly term and conditions rubbish.

***Smartie*** · 26-05-2019 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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10pm the programmes start tonight. North east expected by 10.30 ish. They have a thing about being first to count. Scotland not till tomorrow because western Isles won’t count on a Sunday.

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Is there overnight coverage, the kind of thing you get when there is a general election?

***Mibbes Aye*** · 26-05-2019 05:20 PM

Originally Posted by RyeSloan

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Honestly it’s nothing to do with ‘Brexit wishful thinking’ and as for government forecasts and analysis. Well yes the UK Treasury did the same before the Brexit vote and stated that a vote to leave would cause an immediate and prolonged recession...my lack of faith in these types forecasts and models has been detailed here many tines before.

What I’m saying is that I do not put as much weight into trade deals and the pro’s of the EU as others. To me there are a number of pros and a number of cons (some examples being the gross inefficiency of the CAP that sucks up a huge amount of EU money and the fact that the EU seems permanently unable to audit its own spending).

The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

In my mind they will ultimately probably all balance out down the line and, after a period of adjustment that may impact some more than others, business and trade will carry on pretty much as before once the political and regulatory environment is clarified.

So as stated that’s why I wasn’t overly bothered either way and certainly why I’m not inclined to be a chicken licken about leaving but on the flip side why I’m also no Farage either.

Btw I’m also similar in Indy although I see greater risks relating to Indy than I do Brexit. I’m sure Indy wold deliver some pros but I’m also sure there is a hell of a lot of risk (like the currency debate highlights) that is not being fully highlighted or worse being deliberately under played. I’m therefore inclined to believe the potential cons will not be worth the effort.

Ultimately then you could probably summarise my position as I was happy for Scotland to stay in the Union and happy for the UK to stay in the EU as changing either was a path fraught with division and risk and with no certainty of material gain at the end of it all.

5 years on from Indy ref and 3 from Brexit ref nothing has happened that has persuaded me that view wasn’t correct!

I think that’s a good and reasoned analysis and while I won’t always agree with you at least you have made it clear about why you believe what you believe in a fair fashion, always enjoy reading your posts.

I think there is something about the evolution of the EU that maybe needs considered. In my view it started off as a mechanism for stopping France and Germany going to war again, probably why the likes of Belgium and Holland were original signatories, after several hundred years of war on the continent.

It has succeeded in stopping war between its members. But at the same time it has developed over the decades, firstly into a massive trading bloc, and then something akin to a supra-national legislature with massive rights of enforcement in social policy across all its members (which some of us welcome and some do not). We then started to see the flirting with one super-state, a common army etc. That has now been challenged by the rise of populist and nationalist agendas which reject the notion of a common ideal and preach a gospel of resentment and injustice.

I think the notion of European collectivism can and ultimately will rise above that. It is knocking on an open door, given the rise of China, the growth of Russia, the politics in the USA of differentiation and exceptionalism and the impending presence of the likes of India as a major world power.

Perhaps the the most important point is the one you make. Over decades and centuries we have set up such elaborate and complicated structures that any radical change risks massive failure.

In 2008, the banks should have been allowed to fail, if we were being true to the system by which they operate and by which they made massive profits. But that would have meant direct debits failing and ATMs running out of money within hours. There would have been anarchy. The totally flawed system was too big to be allowed to fail, hence trillions of taxpayer money being required to bail out the system.

Leaving the EU, even leaving the union, carry so much inherent risk, not from a political sense, but simply because structures are set up to not be able to deal with leaving. It doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong (subjective, I know), it is simply that sort of radical change carries so many implications, some of which are unforeseen, that the consequences are potentially terrifying.

But, they said that about Y2K I guess

**~~Peevemor~~** · 26-05-2019 06:16 PM

Marine Le Pen's crew came out on top of the French election with 23% of the vote, 1% ahead of Macron's lot. At least the greens came a very decent 3rd with 12%, ahead of the traditional Left and Right parties.

***Ozyhibby*** · 26-05-2019 07:20 PM

Edinburgh turnout figures. Not sure but that looks like a high turnout for a European election.

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***Hibrandenburg*** · 26-05-2019 08:11 PM

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

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Edinburgh turnout figures. Not sure but that looks like a high turnout for a European election.

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That's a decent turnout. I was at my election station today at 13:00 and at that time over 150 of the 320 eligible voters in our village had cast their vote, however most of my neighbours are pensioners so not representative of the rest of Germany.