Scottish Independence

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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Where did you see that mate?

Couple people on twitter saying its due for release then

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 07:58 PM

Im starting to think these polls are a farce

**steakbake** · 13-09-2014 08:10 PM

The polls are a farce. You can't read anything into the numbers other than it's very close. As to which side is out on top, who knows. One thing is sure: BT did not expect it to be as close as it is. Some of them are very nervous. Spoke to a political animal today who thinks all the polls will get it wrong by about 5%. 4.3 million have registered. So many more than at any other time. Why all the new registrations? Who are they and what way are they leaning?

Let's make history happen.

**steakbake** · 13-09-2014 08:11 PM

couple of other bets: some polling stations will close at 10pm with people on the doorstep.

**OsloHibs** · 13-09-2014 08:23 PM

What exactly are the 'extra powers' for Scotland that were suddenly offered last week? I've tried to google the answers and can't find them.. Anyone got a link to exactly WHAT they are?

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by steakbake

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The polls are a farce. You can't read anything into the numbers other than it's very close. As to which side is out on top, who knows. One thing is sure: BT did not expect it to be as close as it is. Some of them are very nervous. Spoke to a political animal today who thinks all the polls will get it wrong by about 5%. 4.3 million have registered. So many more than at any other time. Why all the new registrations? Who are they and what way are they leaning?

Let's make history happen.

I know, but how can one lot have it 8 points in favour of No and a different lot have it in Yes favour by the same margin?? Something just doesn't stack up.. Can these things be rigged to favour one or the other?

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:25 PM

Originally Posted by OsloHibs

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What exactly are the 'extra powers' for Scotland that were suddenly offered last week? I've tried to google the answers and can't find them.. Anyone got a link to exactly WHAT they are?

I would read the Emperor's New Clothes :)

Whatever they "are", William Hague told the UK Parliament that they weren't UK Government policy.

Does that clear things up?

**~~Peevemor~~** · 13-09-2014 08:25 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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I know, but how can one lot have it 8 points in favour of No and a different lot have it in Yes favour by the same margin?? Something just doesn't stack up.. Can these things be rigged to favour one or the other?

Just seen this on Pussbook

POLL STAT UPDATE!

13 September 2014 at 14:55
** All polls conducted on the ground, not through landline calls to a particular area **
Subject: Polls Update - Aug / Sept 2014.

Giffnock - (Fri Sept 12th) - 23.628 polled - 76% Yes | 24% No.
Mumsnet.com 984 polled - 48% Yes | 41% No | 11% Don't Know.
Sunny Govan Community Radio - 2900 votes - 94.2% Yes | 4.2% No | 1.6% Don't Know.
Coatbridge Museum 5020 votes - 81% Yes | 19% No.

RIC polls (excl' don't knows). National Canvass on 18,012 polled found 63% Yes | 37% No.

Also in mid August, RIC targeted smaller polls (300 - 400 to 1800) in areas which were or still are Labour strongholds. The results were:-

Late entry Sept 10th. RIC Poll (including Don't Knows and double checked at the source) Summerhill, Dumfries - 53.7% Yes | 11.6% No | 34.7% Don't Know.

Shetland and Orkney - 82% wish to remain part of Scotland, not UK. (Press & Journal poll of islander voters)

YES vote is surging ahead right across Scotland. Green Party, SNP and Socialist Parties are joined by thousands of Labour Party members and hundreds of thousands of "traditional Labour voters" / hundreds of Lib Dem members and thousands of Lib Dem voters to bring our government home on Thursday. (18/09/14)

*******************ENDS***********************

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:26 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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I know, but how can one lot have it 8 points in favour of No and a different lot have it in Yes favour by the same margin?? Something just doesn't stack up.. Can these things be rigged to favour one or the other?

It's because of the sample sizes. They're seldom more than 1000 people, which is IMO far too small to draw a conclusion in something which seems to be so tight.

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:29 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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Im starting to think these polls are a farce

same. hope were not bombarded with them for the rest of the week

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:30 PM

Originally Posted by adhibs

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same. hope were not bombarded with them for the rest of the week

you'd better turn the electric off then.

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:32 PM

Originally Posted by Peevemor

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Just seen this on Pussbook

That to me looks a bit like Yes propaganda? Rather than anything else.. Where does it come from??

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:34 PM

yes 49.4% no 50.6%

as much as they do my tits in, been sitting waiting to see the result

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:35 PM

Originally Posted by adhibs

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yes 49.4% no 50.6%

Panelbase?

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:40 PM

Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod

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Panelbase?

aye. i was expecting the support for yes to take a bit of a denting after this week, doesnt seem like any have been swayed

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:41 PM

Originally Posted by adhibs

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aye. i was expecting the support for yes to take a bit of a denting after this week, doesnt seem like any have been swayed

Got a link? My boy has just asked for the "methodology"... smartass.... so i need to appear to be intelligent. :)

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:42 PM

So to cap it off. You have 2 saying neck and neck
Another giving No an 8 point lead, but carried out for Better Together. Then another poll giving Yes an 8 point lead. And another giving No 6 point lead...

To be honest I smell a rat with one of the 8 point lead polls

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:44 PM

Originally Posted by adhibs

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yes 49.4% no 50.6%

as much as they do my tits in, been sitting waiting to see the result

Its actually addictive, not even had a bet on the football since i got in from Hibs game...

***CropleyWasGod*** · 13-09-2014 08:45 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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So to cap it off. You have 2 saying neck and neck
Another giving No an 8 point lead, but carried out for Better Together. Then another poll giving Yes an 8 point lead. And another giving No 6 point lead...

To be honest I smell a rat with one of the 8 point lead polls

It's not a rat. It just emphasises the shortcomings of the small sample sizes.

You could take 2 samples at ER today. Each 1000 people. Ask them yes or no. One sample could be 60:40 one way. The other 60:40 the other way.

What conclusion could you draw from that?

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:45 PM

Forgot to add, I bet the news headlines tonight are No campaign 8 points ahead

***Leith Green*** · 13-09-2014 08:46 PM

[QUOTE=CropleyWasGod;4167566]It's not a rat. It just emphasises the shortcomings of the small sample sizes.

You could take 2 samples at ER today. Each 1000 people. Ask them yes or no. One sample could be 60:40 one way. The other 60:40 the other way.

What conclusion could you draw from that?[/QUOTE

Neck and neck, point taken...

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod

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Got a link? My boy has just asked for the "methodology"... smartass.... so i need to appear to be intelligent. :)

not got a link but faisal islam has tweeted the age breakdown as

16:34 57% Y: 43% N, 35-54 55% Y: 45% N, 55+ 38%Y: 62%N ...over 55s just save Union

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:53 PM

Originally Posted by Leith Green

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Its actually addictive, not even had a bet on the football since i got in from Hibs game...

the whole referendum has completly distracted me from how ***** hibs are. I got a big reminder from being at easter road today though.

**adhibs** · 13-09-2014 08:55 PM

heres a more indepth analysis of the panelbase result http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2...e-just-little/

**~~Peevemor~~** · 13-09-2014 08:55 PM

I'd rather the polls indicate it being neck and neck. I don't want any potential yes voters becoming complacent.

If things really are that even, I think Yes will win the day because their voters want it more.

**OsloHibs** · 13-09-2014 08:59 PM

I find the NO campaign truly shocking

I would want to know every extra power they would give to Scotland as they have said they would- and yet, I can't find anything online.

**Betty Boop** · 13-09-2014 09:03 PM

The Scottish Sun coming out in favour of the Yes campaign ? Murdoch's revenge ?

**stoneyburn hibs** · 13-09-2014 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by Peevemor

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I'd rather the polls indicate it being neck and neck. I don't want any potential yes voters becoming complacent.

If things really are that even, I think Yes will win the day because their voters want it more.

Massive salt with regard to any poll, I may have a dream but I really do think most undecided will flip to yes on the day.