Scottish Independence

[ronaldo7]

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They're also generally copied and pasted from somewhere else and not even the poster's words.

Hey, there's a great big world out there.

[JeMeSouviens]

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They're also generally copied and pasted from somewhere else and not even the poster's words.

Probably I've banged on way too much on this thread already, but here's a hysterical post I wrote all in my own words to a no leaning friend, originally from England, hence the last para. Feedback welcome,even if it's just STFU. ;-)



This is my case for Yes with as much objectivity as I can muster.

In my view, the debate is happening in three strands:

1. Money - obviously important but essentially ends up a pointless argument.
2. Structure - this should be the main focus but usually gets drowned out by 1
3. Identity - the elephant in the room.

On 1, I think the fiscal position of Scotland in the UK is roughly neutral. More money goes in, more money comes out. More goes in because of oil but even ex-oil we are comfortably the 3rd best performing region of the UK behind only London and the SE. More comes out because of Barnett. This is completely accidental. Barnett was devised to allocate funds by population share but still uses multipliers derived in the 70s. Since then, Scotland’s population has been fairly flat, England’s has increased markedly.

Either way, we have a big adjustment to make. Either we become independent and face oil running out or we stay in the union and have to face the end of Barnett. It makes no logical sense to maintain it and in fact is detrimental to Wales and the English regions so there is inevitable pressure building to replace it. The only thing keeping that pressure on hold is a pragmatic desire to win the referendum (google Cameron’s comments on Barnett pre and post 2011, big difference). I think the same pragmatism will see it reduced gradually rather than suddenly withdrawn, just as the oil money will gradually taper rather than abruptly end. This assumes things continuing on a similar economic trajectory either way. Of course, I think we can do better under a more tailored structure but I don’t think things will change a lot in the short term, divergence will grow over time. The scare stories on one side and happy, sunlit uplands on the other are equally illusory. We had all the same stuff before the 97 referendum. The reality is I think things have got a wee bit better since then, or actually maybe just a wee bit different to England, in a way that has suited society here, but change is slow.

So either way, big challenges to live within our means, but of a fairly similar scale. We will have to either drive up tax revenue or have less to spend, whatever we decide in September. At least under independence we get to decide the balance of taxation vs spending for ourselves and get rid of any government that does something we end up not liking. If the situation was clear cut either way, it would be an easy win for that side and the referendum would’ve been a foregone conclusion months ago. Which is a shame, because there’s so much fog surrounding 1 that it takes up almost all the debate and I think what we should really be talking about is 2 …

The chance to have real accountable democracy in Scotland: a government that makes changes to attempt to improve the economy and reaps the rewards of an increased tax take or takes the punishment and is booted out. We’d also get a full parliament of the best politicians we produce. At the moment the standard is woeful as all the best Unionists head for Westminster where real power lies. We’re left with the SNP by default and a 3rd rate opposition. And they’d be focused full time on our problems and tailored solutions to them. With the best will in the word, a government in London can’t apply itself properly to solving Scottish issues, it has too much else to deal with. And because we’d be entering into a new venture, everything is up for grabs: do we want to continue the monarchy or be a republic? Have a military big enough to participate abroad or just a minimum defence? The sort of things that could never be changed in the UK can all be on the table post-independence in the years ahead, if we want.

Lastly 3, the subject which actually is a huge driver of the debate but nobody wants to talk about! Whether to be British or Scottish. “Yes" don’t want to be accused of being Nazis, “No" won’t bring it up because it’s a weak point, there just isn’t enough Britishness about to guarantee them a win. Fundamentally, if people feel Scottish and view Scotland as a country, it’s the natural order of things that we should run it ourselves. That’s how it works the world over.

It took me a long time to work out why the UK establishment wants to keep the union so much (subsidy junkies etc!) but that's about identity too. If you haven't seen it, watch Andrew Neil's documentary on the effects of independence on the remaining UK. It makes it all crystal clear. It's about staying a nuclear power, staying on the UN security council, maintaining the current position in table of G8 GDPs, not "losing" Scotland, keeping face.

You’ve lived here most of your adult life and are as much part of Scottish society as anyone. You are actually in the lucky position of being able to have a Scottish identity if you want without having to be saddled with the bloody football team! If you aren’t the best person to make the decisions about things that will shape your life, who is?

[JeMeSouviens]

... And a reply to a reply,on national identity ...

The fact that we can and do have multiple identities is obvious. However, looking at it from the other way round, I think it's also obvious that you can't sustain a successful state, at least not a democratic one, if the people don't buy into the idea of it. By which I mean the overwhelming number of the people have to feel they belong to the country and the country belongs to them. Look at the US, it has all sorts of identities going on within it of all sorts of racial and non-racial, ethnic, religious, policitical affiliations but they all accept their American-ness. The Swiss have distinct language blocs and a history involving violent sectarian conflict, but today they all feel Swiss. Ireland, on the other hand, has never reconciled the Unionists to living in Ireland or the nationalists of the north to living in Britain. They will always be living with inherent instability unless they can find a way for one or other of those populations to buy into a state they can all be content with.

When I go to England, I don't feel culturally dissimilar or unwelcome, but I don't feel it belongs to me, as I do visiting any part of Scotland. If Scotland is to have a long term future in the the UK, then the UK has to find a way to make Scots feel that it, rather than Scotland, should be their country. They don't have to lose their Scottish identity, people from Yorkshire and Cornwall are proud of those identities after all, but they do have to feel an allegiance to Britain over and above. It's not impossible, the second world war and its aftermath definitely fostered a common identity and is probably the high watermark of Britishness-including-Scotland since the Union. But that generation is disappearing and I don't see anything likely to happen that would have the same sort of effect today. I've seen numerous articles dismissing the state of the Tory party in Scotland as no different to the north of England. I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding. I think the larger part of the Scottish people actually felt they weren't just a party they disagreed with, they were a government without legitimacy north of the border. The only way to keep Scotland in the Union was to loosen the binding by devolving power but that's only been a short term fix. Here we are again, with the only way to keep Scotland in the Union being to loosen the binding still further. And even if that succeeds, we'll be back here again in another 10 years or so.

So, given a Yes vote, won't the situation just be reversed, with a large minority of British identifiers unhappy with their lot? I don't think so, for 3 reasons. A very large part of the No vote also has a Scottish identity: there are a lot of people who would support independence in an ideal world but have some personal situation that makes them perceive it as a risk. They will be on board once the decision is made. We're good at absorbing foreigners: Scotland has been built on waves of immigration and if you look at the census returns, Scottishness pervades all the arrivals bar those who have recently moved from inside the UK, ie. the people who didn't perceive themselves to be moving country. Lastly, we've already had an acid test, the setting up of the Scottish Parliament. It has been overwhelmingly accepted as our national parliament and even those who opposed its creation have got on with the business of making it work. I also think it's been a success and there is no better measure of that than the reduction in anti-English whingeing and the blaming of England for all our problems. It still exists but compared to 20 years ago, it's a shadow of its former self.

[Hibbyradge]

After all the deliberation, this is my postal vote;

Referendum.jpg

[Hibrandenburg]

This should see a few more don't knows move to YES!

http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc...itics-29003017

Footnote for Beefster: Warning!! Cut n Paste

[Moulin Yarns]

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After all the deliberation, this is my postal vote;

Referendum.jpg

hibs yes.jpg

[Moulin Yarns]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29003017

It just gets better, not together.

[Stranraer]

Just read a good piece my Irvine Welsh in the Sunday Herald - talking about how people are concerned with the risks but when they are looking at the ballot paper will say **** it and vote Yes! I hope he's right.

[Hibrandenburg]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29003017

It just gets better, not together.

[PeeJay]

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I can vote in municipal elections over here and have even been given the vote in General elections. The last two general elections I was given the wrong ballot paper after the election supervisor just glanced at my name and photo on my passport whilst cross-checking it with my election letter.

Haven't you failed to mention here that this is because you are a German national? Surely "Peevemor" cannot vote in France in a GE because he is a foreign national and not a "Froggie"!

I can vote in the municipals here, but not the GE ... still not a German after all these years - mind you, if Scotland votes yes, then I'm asking for the forms

[marinello59]

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After all the deliberation, this is my postal vote;

Referendum.jpg

The correct answer.

[Phil D. Rolls]

Britain on highest level terrorism alert. I take it the Irish border is fully manned and all cars are bring checked. Otherwise, what exactly is border control?

[Stranraer]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29003017

It just gets better, not together.

"we are happy to join him make sure he stays safe" UKIP must have more money for bodyguards than the Labour party.

[Stranraer]

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Britain on highest level terrorism alert. I take it the Irish border is fully manned and all cars are bring checked. Otherwise, what exactly is border control?

Yeah I'd say it has more to do with British nationals fighting in Syria and Iraq.

[Phil D. Rolls]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29003017

It just gets better, not together.

Bring it on, I can't wait to see how the rest of them can distance themselves from him, whilst agreeing with what he says.

[Phil D. Rolls]

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Yeah I'd say it has more to do with British nationals fighting in Syria and Iraq.

Better Together claimed that there would be a border between Scotland and the Uk. If the Irish border remains open at a time like this, it's hard to believe there will be border controls if we vote yes.

[Hibrandenburg]

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29003017

It just gets better, not together.

[Stranraer]

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Better Together claimed that there would be a border between Scotland and the Uk. If the Irish border remains open at a time like this, it's hard to believe there will be border controls if we vote yes.

The Irish border serves no purpose and I look forward to the day that it doesn't exist but that's another debate. The Better Together campaign's claim on a border is ridiculous but then I'm getting used to their garbage leaflets that don't actually explain why Scotland is better off in the union. I guess that's why they are springing around with "No Thanks" badges now. There's less explaining to do.

[Hibrandenburg]

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Haven't you failed to mention here that this is because you are a German national? Surely "Peevemor" cannot vote in France in a GE because he is a foreign national and not a "Froggie"!

I can vote in the municipals here, but not the GE ... still not a German after all these years - mind you, if Scotland votes yes, then I'm asking for the forms

Neither am I, think I must have slipped under their radar somehow. Does that make me a sleeper?

[ronaldo7]

The pentland hills have Aye's.

BwXbSYQIAAE9FiE.jpg

Absolutely magic.

[JeMeSouviens]

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The pentland hills have Aye's.

BwXbSYQIAAE9FiE.jpg

Absolutely magic.

The Hill-end of the Union. ;-)

[Stranraer]

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The Hill-end of the Union. ;-)

Ah just seeing the words "end of the Union" made my day. Latest Survation poll has Yes at 47 and No at 53.

[PeeJay]

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Neither am I, think I must have slipped under their radar somehow. Does that make me a sleeper?

Berlin and Wowi ... anything's possible here - well, not the airport obviously

[Stranraer]

ridiculous.jpg

The No campaign's latest poster is yet another insult, who comes up with this garbage?

[steakbake]

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ridiculous.jpg

The No campaign's latest poster is yet another insult, who comes up with this garbage?

M&C Saatchi, sanctioned by Douglas Alexander (Campaign Manager).

The same lot that used 'Are you thinking what we're thinking' and 'Labour isn't working...'. The masters of fear trying to be positive and this is the result...

As I see it, BT know they've gone too negative but their eggs are all in that basket with the expertise they've bought in.

Momentum is with an aspirational campaign. BT isn't about aspiration: it's about keeping things exactly as they are.

Looking forward to seeing a few polls this week. It's going to be very close.

[JeMeSouviens]

Yougov (the sun):

Y 47 (+4)
N 53 (-4)

Last Yougov also showed +4 swing to Y. N lead cut from 22 to 6 in under a month!

[Stranraer]

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Yougov (the sun):

Y 47 (+4)
N 53 (-4)

Last Yougov also showed +4 swing to Y. N lead cut from 22 to 6 in under a month!

Excellent news, lets hope it continues!

[WindyMiller]

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeeh...ferendum-poll/

[GlesgaeHibby]

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Yougov (the sun):

Y 47 (+4)
N 53 (-4)

Last Yougov also showed +4 swing to Y. N lead cut from 22 to 6 in under a month!

Momentum firmly with yes. Undecided's going to yes at a rate of 2:1. Looks like a yes win is becoming ever more likely.

[stoneyburn hibs]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-29010574


I love my family, I'm saying no thanks.
BT have replaced the union flag with the saltire.

Keep em coming Alastair .