Share Transfers Agreed/Cooling off period

[Gus Fring]

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I still don't see how they can treat FOH as a viable bid given that a lot of funding comes from direct debits from a bunch of deluded half wits which can be cancelled at any time

The actual bid doesn't comprise any of the direct debit money as none of that has been collected yet. That will be used to run the club and pay back the debt. The bid compromises one off amounts that individuals who want to help their cause have either donated or loaned to the FOH. These loans will then need to be paid back once the club is on a more stable financial footing.

[Dr Jimmy]

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I still don't see how they can treat FOH as a viable bid given that a lot of funding comes from direct debits from a bunch of deluded half wits which can be cancelled at any time

I suppose it will come down to how they structure the Direct Debits. If you have to sign for a year then it is no different to a normal subscription model, and budgets can be based on the commits (minus a %). But if they are not asking for a signed yearly commit and allowing people to cancel when they want then they are (in my opinion) donald ducked.

Although, when the novilty of the "we saved the club" wears off and the season tickets are up for renewal, on the back of an average (at best) season their DDs will go through the floor.

[Ozyhibby]

There now seems to be a bit of doubt creeping into the opinion of the experts on here regarding whether they will be liquidated.
There has still been no mention of the shares being frozen by BDO, only that they are waiting on an admin being appointed.
Is a CVA now looking the most likely?

[Gus Fring]

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I suppose it will come down to how they structure the Direct Debits. If you have to sign for a year then it is no different to a normal subscription model, and budgets can be based on the commits (minus a %). But if they are not asking for a signed yearly commit and allowing people to cancel when they want then they are (in my opinion) donald ducked.

Although, when the novilty of the "we saved the club" wears off and the season tickets are up for renewal, on the back of an average (at best) season their DDs will go through the floor.

I don't believe there is a minimum period they have to commit for. They could cancel at anytime. I completely agree with you and have said myself in the past that the number is unsustainable for a vast array of reasons. They can't offer anything in return for the pledges further down the line either because I believe they would then have to start paying VAT as it stops being a donation at that point.

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There now seems to be a bit of doubt creeping into the opinion of the experts on here regarding whether they will be liquidated.
There has still been no mention of the shares being frozen by BDO, only that they are waiting on an admin being appointed.
Is a CVA now looking the most likely?

My impression is that liquidation is still, by far, the most likely outcome. Even before they went into admin it was barely mentioned by the media that the assets were frozen. Hell, Big Brian Mclaughlin from the BBC told us that Hearts were in the latter stages of being owned by the fans back in march even though it was impossible at that time.

The CVA would only come after the admin of UKIO accepts the FOH bid. It's important to remember that UKIO are the ones with the ability to make or break this and if they accept the bid, FOH will still only own 29.9% of Hearts and Tynecastle. UBIG's shares would then also need to be acquired.

[Treadstone]

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I don't believe there is a minimum period they have to commit for. They could cancel at anytime. I completely agree with you and have said myself in the past that the number is unsustainable for a vast array of reasons. They can't offer anything in return for the pledges further down the line either because I believe they would then have to start paying VAT as it stops being a donation at that point.

Wonder if that will affect their voting system for the pledgers ? Probably after the initial board gets their feet under the table.

[Dashing Bob S]

It seems to me that UKIOS are not in the position to accept this FOH (or any other bid) due to the frozen share etc issues in Lithuania.

So the questions would seem to be; 1) Is this bid likely to be acceptable to the Lithuanians? 2) If so, when are they likely to be able to do anything about it and achieve a CVA, presumably before the club run out of cash to operate through this season? 3) And, long term, are FOH really in a position to finance and run the club in an ongoing basis?

[JeMeSouviens]

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There now seems to be a bit of doubt creeping into the opinion of the experts on here regarding whether they will be liquidated.
There has still been no mention of the shares being frozen by BDO, only that they are waiting on an admin being appointed.
Is a CVA now looking the most likely?

It's not just a CVA they need: it's satisfaction of the secured creditor, transfer of shares and a CVA.

Even if Bazza's £5M is correct, what does it mean? £5M to Valnetas to satisy the security? Will they also be looking for p/£ on the unsecured debt? Will UBIG's admin appear and what will they want? Will the shares unfreeze? What about the £0.5M football debt that needs paid in full?

Even if all that suddenly comes together, they will most likely end up in Div1 with a large funding shortfall, the debt due to whoever's putting up the cash and a dilapidated ****hole of a stadium still needing replaced.

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I don't believe there is a minimum period they have to commit for. They could cancel at anytime. I completely agree with you and have said myself in the past that the number is unsustainable for a vast array of reasons. They can't offer anything in return for the pledges further down the line either because I believe they would then have to start paying VAT as it stops being a donation at that point.



My impression is that liquidation is still, by far, the most likely outcome. Even before they went into admin it was barely mentioned by the media that the assets were frozen. Hell, Big Brian Mclaughlin from the BBC told us that Hearts were in the latter stages of being owned by the fans back in march even though it was impossible at that time.

The CVA would only come after the admin of UKIO accepts the FOH bid. It's important to remember that UKIO are the ones with the ability to make or break this and if they accept the bid, FOH will still only own 29.9% of Hearts and Tynecastle. UBIG's shares would then also need to be acquired.

Do Ukio actually own 29.9%? I thought the 29.9% was put up as security on one of the myriad Ukio->UBIG loans but Ukio still actually owned all 79.9% of their stake?

[#FromTheCapital]

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It's not just a CVA they need: it's satisfaction of the secured creditor, transfer of shares and a CVA.

Even if Bazza's £5M is correct, what does it mean? £5M to Valnetas to satisy the security? Will they also be looking for p/£ on the unsecured debt? Will UBIG's admin appear and what will they want? Will the shares unfreeze? What about the £0.5M football debt that needs paid in full?

Even if all that suddenly comes together, they will most likely end up in Div1 with a large funding shortfall, the debt due to whoever's putting up the cash and a dilapidated ****hole of a stadium still needing replaced.

The unsecured creditors will get 0 pence in the £ just like Dunfermline's creditors. HMRC Will reject this and if UBIG's admin reject it then its time for the liquidiser.

[Gus Fring]

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The unsecured creditors will get 0 pence in the £ just like Dunfermline's creditors. HMRC Will reject this and if UBIG's admin reject it then its time for the liquidiser.

The proposed CVA is not 0 pence in the £. I don't see why that would change between now and then?

[#FromTheCapital]

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The proposed CVA is not 0 pence in the £. I don't see why that would change between now and then?

Was my understanding that unsecured creditors ie everyone bar Ukio, wouldn't be getting a bolt. Was it not mentioned in the BDO document that listed all creditors? If its not 0 pence in the £, what is it?

[Dunderhall]

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BDO see themselves as celebrity administrators. They will get acclaimed for saving the Yams but get nothing for getting an extra couple of million for the creditors.

Fortunately they are having to deal with another bunch of administrators.

IIRC there was a new valuation for Tynecastle instructed a couple of weeks ago. Has there been any leaks on that front ?

To be fair to BDO, they have played a marketing game.
If hearts do come out of this they will be seen as the good guys, if hearts don't they will be seen as the good guys who couldn't quite turn things around.

Either way they come out of it with a decent reputation and a good team to appoint for the next football admin case.

[Gus Fring]

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Was my understanding that unsecured creditors ie everyone bar Ukio, wouldn't be getting a bolt. Was it not mentioned in the BDO document that listed all creditors? If its not 0 pence in the £, what is it?

My mistake, I didn't see "unsecured" in your post. Sorry, you are quite correct

[Part/Time Supporter]

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There now seems to be a bit of doubt creeping into the opinion of the experts on here regarding whether they will be liquidated.
There has still been no mention of the shares being frozen by BDO, only that they are waiting on an admin being appointed.
Is a CVA now looking the most likely?

Again, I think people are reading too much into comments and making rather sweeping generalisations. My perspective of their situation hasn't really changed. I've been saying since early last season that they would go into administration and that liquidation was possible, but not necessarily likely. That applied even when certain folk were saying "you guys always say that and it never happens", etc..

The land value isn't that high and it only needs the fans to get their act together to make a buyout possible. I'm sure that Ukio will demand the land valuation, less a small discount representing sale costs not incurred, but I find it hard to believe that FOH and their backers would allow Hearts to be liquidated for the sake of a relatively small amount of money. The biggest problems facing a takeover now IMO are the inherited problems, ie the likelihood of relegation (last Sunday notwithstanding!) and the funding deficit. Those problems are what make the strength of the pledge scheme very important. Without that additional funding, the cost of a takeover would go up from say £6M to more like £10M, which would be very hard to justify for private investors.

I think other folk have taken the "liquidation is very likely / certain" view because they have a perspective on the Lithuanian situation (Government attitudes to Ukio, prosecution of Romanov and so on) and have drawn a conclusion from that. I've never really shared that view, because there are usually ways of resolving or getting around legal impediments, such as placing funds in an escrow account. Ultimately these decisions are in the control of the Lithuanian government and if they think the best resolution for them is to sell to FOH that's what they'll do.

[Treadstone]

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The land value isn't that high and it only needs the fans to get their act together to make a buyout possible. I'm sure that Ukio will demand the land valuation, less a small discount representing sale costs not incurred, but I find it hard to believe that FOH and their backers would allow Hearts to be liquidated for the sake of a relatively small amount of money.

What is the land value ?

[Part/Time Supporter]

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What is the land value ?

FOH have said it's £5.5M. Of course, it's in their interests to say that it's a lower figure, but I don't think it's wildly out. A well reasoned post on here some time back explained how land values would have come down by 70%+ since the peak of the market, because the construction costs are relatively fixed. Therefore a relatively small drop in property price would have a much bigger effect on the land. Other folk have thrown about much bigger numbers with little reasoning and comparisons that don't appear to be valid.

[WhileTheChief..]

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Ultimately these decisions are in the control of the Lithuanian government and if they think the best resolution for them is to sell to FOH that's what they'll do.

Spot on. Too many on here getting their hopes up I think.

Everyone seems to think that a CVA wont be agreed but its based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Liths might be quite happy to accept £2- £3M just to get rid and they can unfreeze the assets at any time.

The longer this goes on the more likely the CVA is to be accepted.

Hearts will try to paint that as a victory of sorts but the real damage has already been done with the points deduction and transfer embargo.

[#FromTheCapital]

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My mistake, I didn't see "unsecured" in your post. Sorry, you are quite correct

[Part/Time Supporter]

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Spot on. Too many on here getting their hopes up I think.

Everyone seems to think that a CVA wont be agreed but its based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Liths might be quite happy to accept £2- £3M just to get rid and they can unfreeze the assets at any time.

The longer this goes on the more likely the CVA is to be accepted.

Hearts will try to paint that as a victory of sorts but the real damage has already been done with the points deduction and transfer embargo.

I don't think that's right either. If that was the case they would have already accepted FOH's offer and it would just be a case of resolving the legal issues with UBIG.

[carnoustiehibee]

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Spot on. Too many on here getting their hopes up I think.

Everyone seems to think that a CVA wont be agreed but its based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Liths might be quite happy to accept £2- £3M just to get rid and they can unfreeze the assets at any time.

The longer this goes on the more likely the CVA is to be accepted.

Hearts will try to paint that as a victory of sorts but the real damage has already been done with the points deduction and transfer embargo.

Points deduction and transfer embargo won't matter a jot if they manage to stay up.

[Gus Fring]

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Spot on. Too many on here getting their hopes up I think.

Everyone seems to think that a CVA wont be agreed but its based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Liths might be quite happy to accept £2- £3M just to get rid and they can unfreeze the assets at any time.

The longer this goes on the more likely the CVA is to be accepted.

Hearts will try to paint that as a victory of sorts but the real damage has already been done with the points deduction and transfer embargo.

The CVA has already been provisionally agreed so it's likely that it will go through. I think the bit in bold is unlikely though. I don't know if by "they" you mean UKIO's admin or the government but as i've said in the past, I haven't heard a convincing reason for why a potentially significant part of Vlads empire would be allowed to be cut loose?

[JeMeSouviens]

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What is the land value ?

According to Blobbo on Radio Scotland, FoH commissioned a valuation and got £5.6M in use as a stadium, £6M as a development site.

Which kind of ties in with Valnetas being willing to take £5M but FoH being "millions short".

[WhileTheChief..]

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The CVA has already been provisionally agreed so it's likely that it will go through. I think the bit in bold is unlikely though. I don't know if by "they" you mean UKIO's admin or the government but as i've said in the past, I haven't heard a convincing reason for why a potentially significant part of Vlads empire would be allowed to be cut loose?

By they I mean the Lith gov't, at least I think it was them that did the freezing.

Is it significant? In comparison to the aluminium plant etc? I'm not so sure.

I just think there's too much speculation that the creditors wont accept £x when in reality no one has a clue. They might be delighted to get anything back - somethings better than nothing.

[whiskyhibby]

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Spot on. Too many on here getting their hopes up I think.

Everyone seems to think that a CVA wont be agreed but its based on nothing more than wishful thinking.

The Liths might be quite happy to accept £2- £3M just to get rid and they can unfreeze the assets at any time.

The longer this goes on the more likely the CVA is to be accepted.

I have to disagree with the last point, the longer it goes on the more FOH funds may dissipate on expenses and helping the administrator in the day to day running, they have a pot which is a long way from the asset value of the stadium and this is likely to be whittled away over time

[blackpoolhibs]

The BBC said tonight FOH had bid around £3m.

[Gus Fring]

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By they I mean the Lith gov't, at least I think it was them that did the freezing.

Is it significant? In comparison to the aluminium plant etc? I'm not so sure.

I just think there's too much speculation that the creditors wont accept £x when in reality no one has a clue. They might be delighted to get anything back - somethings better than nothing.

I don't know his significant it is and it's likely neither do the authorities at this stage. Hearts could have just been a plaything for Vlad, it might have been the key to his whole operation.

[Treadstone]

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According to Blobbo on Radio Scotland, FoH commissioned a valuation and got £5.6M in use as a stadium, £6M as a development site.

Which kind of ties in with Valnetas being willing to take £5M but FoH being "millions short".

Certainly looks like a lot of middle ground still to be achieved. Couple of million doesn't sound a lot when the £28m debt is within earshot but its probably another 75% of what FoH are maxed out currently.

[Billy Whizz]

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The BBC said tonight FOH had bid around £3m.

£7million less than the valuation of Jason Holt

[WhileTheChief..]

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Points deduction and transfer embargo won't matter a jot if they manage to stay up.

If they manage to stay up is that not a matter of fair play to them for coming through such a **** storm? Staying up would be an absolutely huge achievement whether we like it or not.

I'm not sticking up for them, but they've had the punishments that the rules permit.

I totally understand the clamour on here for them to be liquidated, that's what rivals do, but have a look around, no one else apart from Hibs fans appear to want them dead and buried.

I think they've pretty much moved past the worse now and if they have a couple of backers to front the CVA then so be it. Whether these backers ever get their money back from kiddy-on pledges is a different matter altogether and the chances are that that debt will go unpaid too.

One they're out of admin they will be able to operate on roughly the same level as us but will be starting from a pretty low point squad wise.

To me the critical element in all of this is Tynecastle. I can see FOH buying Hearts but having to rent the stadium back.
A kinda win - win for both Hearts and Hibs fans??!!

[Mr White]

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£7million less than the valuation of Jason Holt

And probably roughly what obua and nade combined took in wages during their time with them.

[Treadstone]

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If they manage to stay up is that not a matter of fair play to them for coming through such a **** storm? Staying up would be an absolutely huge achievement whether we like it or not.

£25m of debt shed. Fair play indeed.