Hibs transfer rumours

[Golden Bear]

This thread on Hibs transfer rumours has already diversified from the original topic so here's another couple of snippets from today's Daily Express.

First of all, Gareth Evans has been appointed first team coach at Livingston and secondly Mark Kerr is now trying to win a contract with Carlisle United so it looks increasingly unlikely that he will be offered any deal with Hibs.

[Speedway]

Just to address the posts that are along the lines of 'We still need to sign 6/12/19/33/17 players' etc.

We know we're 2500 ST's down. Let's say we're on 6000 STs on that basis. Allowing for concessions, let's say we're seeing £275 for each ST paid over a looooooong time.

Hibs are then saying, right Paddy, we've lost money deluxe style but whatever is ST is coming in this year so although we're not actually seeing the money from the punters yet, we'll put up the equivalent.

So there you go Patricia, 6000 x 275 = £1.65m. Don't spend it all at once.

Now lets' say that when you adjust our squad for the likes of McPake and Williams who will be on reasonable money and Stanton/Caldwell who will be on nowt AND us still paying money to Jimmy Scott, let's say that every player is on around £1k a week or £52k a year, averaged out.

Stick on 12.8% N.I. contribution and every player gets paid, on average, approx £58.5k per year.

Now, we've got 24 players listed on the fishy. 24 players x £58.5k = £1.4m (this is all without goal and win bonuses - where's that cash coming from if it's needed?)

So, Fenners, you've bnow got circa £250k left to play with at best.

That leaves room for 2 £2k+ a week players when you add in other expenses.

We've said there will be 2-3 more coming in.

We apparently don't want cheap journeymen.

So how are we funding an extra 5-6-7-8-9 etc signings?

[silverhibee]

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Booth is not the answer at left back. Gets caught out too much.

Maybury is not the answer at right back either, gets caught out too much.

[The Sea-gull]

Really don't want us to sign Maybury or Kerr. A bit embarassing that we have even had them on trial. I know there is not a lot of money swirling around the SPL but I can't help but feel Dundee United and Aberdeen (teams who I believe we should be aiming to be as good as if not better season in season out) are managing to assemble far better squads than ours.

Maybury has journeyed around the SPL for a few years now. Deemed not good enough for Aberdeen 4 years ago and hardly a regular in the last two years at St Johnstone.

Kerr was bombed out of Aberdeen a couple of years back, went abroad and was available in January and signed for the mighty Dunfermline and hardly shone as they went down. If he was half decent still he would not have ended up there.

I do understand that times are hard but is it really that bad of me to think we can do better than these two guys?

The only way signing either (Maybury more so than Kerr) would be acceptable is to have as squad players but we have enough of those, we need some real quality of next season will be a struggle. Again.

Maybe I have to be realistic though and say that I really wanted the Huns down the leagues so now we have got that maybe this will be our level of signings.

[silverhibee]

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Just to address the posts that are along the lines of 'We still need to sign 6/12/19/33/17 players' etc.

We know we're 2500 ST's down. Let's say we're on 6000 STs on that basis. Allowing for concessions, let's say we're seeing £275 for each ST paid over a looooooong time.

Hibs are then saying, right Paddy, we've lost money deluxe style but whatever is ST is coming in this year so although we're not actually seeing the money from the punters yet, we'll put up the equivalent.

So there you go Patricia, 6000 x 275 = £1.65m. Don't spend it all at once.

Now lets' say that when you adjust our squad for the likes of McPake and Williams who will be on reasonable money and Stanton/Caldwell who will be on nowt AND us still paying money to Jimmy Scott, let's say that every player is on around £1k a week or £52k a year, averaged out.

Stick on 12.8% N.I. contribution and every player gets paid, on average, approx £58.5k per year.

Now, we've got 24 players listed on the fishy. 24 players x £58.5k = £1.4m (this is all without goal and win bonuses - where's that cash coming from if it's needed?)

So, Fenners, you've bnow got circa £250k left to play with at best.

That leaves room for 2 £2k+ a week players when you add in other expenses.

We've said there will be 2-3 more coming in.

We apparently don't want cheap journeymen.

So how are we funding an extra 5-6-7-8-9 etc signings?

[Speedway]

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Assuming they ever become applicable. We better not score or win - we can't afford it.

[BEEJ]

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Now, we've got 24 players listed on the fishy. 24 players x £58.5k = £1.4m (this is all without goal and win bonuses - where's that cash coming from if it's needed?)

So, Fenners, you've bnow got circa £250k left to play with at best.

That leaves room for 2 £2k+ a week players when you add in other expenses.

We've said there will be 2-3 more coming in.

So how are we funding an extra 5-6-7-8-9 etc signings?

The fishy stilll lists Mark Brown and Isaiah Osbourne in that 24.

So probably room for 4 players yet to be brought in. That would make it 15 departures and 8 signings in this window.

[Speedway]

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The fishy stilll lists Mark Brown and Isaiah Osbourne in that 24.

So probably room for 4 players yet to be brought in. That would make it 15 departures and 8 signings in this window.

Talks are still ongoing with our 'shot-stopper' Brown.

[Hibs7]

Would let Brown go .... bye bye

[GreenOnions]

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Just to address the posts that are along the lines of 'We still need to sign 6/12/19/33/17 players' etc.

We know we're 2500 ST's down. Let's say we're on 6000 STs on that basis. Allowing for concessions, let's say we're seeing £275 for each ST paid over a looooooong time.

Hibs are then saying, right Paddy, we've lost money deluxe style but whatever is ST is coming in this year so although we're not actually seeing the money from the punters yet, we'll put up the equivalent.

So there you go Patricia, 6000 x 275 = £1.65m. Don't spend it all at once.

Now lets' say that when you adjust our squad for the likes of McPake and Williams who will be on reasonable money and Stanton/Caldwell who will be on nowt AND us still paying money to Jimmy Scott, let's say that every player is on around £1k a week or £52k a year, averaged out.

Stick on 12.8% N.I. contribution and every player gets paid, on average, approx £58.5k per year.

Now, we've got 24 players listed on the fishy. 24 players x £58.5k = £1.4m (this is all without goal and win bonuses - where's that cash coming from if it's needed?)

So, Fenners, you've bnow got circa £250k left to play with at best.

That leaves room for 2 £2k+ a week players when you add in other expenses.

We've said there will be 2-3 more coming in.

We apparently don't want cheap journeymen.

So how are we funding an extra 5-6-7-8-9 etc signings?

This is a useful exercise and I agree with the general picture you're painting.

However, I feel that there are a number of the figures you use which, if amended, could change the picture dramatically.

You pointed out yourself the issue of win bonuses etc and it is very difficult to estimate the actual earnings of those already under contract.

However, if we take your figure of an average basic of £1kpw and also use your assumption of 6,000 ST holders I think it might be more accurate to use an average ST value of above the level you have used. The figure of £275 seems on the low side to me.

If we use £325 (still well below the cost of many tickets that will have been sold) and also assume that Osbourne has left - the picture looks a little different:

6,000 x £325 = £1,950,000. That is £300k more than your estimate. Let's say 23 players (now OZZY has gone) at the rate you used (£58.5K) = £1.35m

That leaves available budget of £600k for squad additions instead of the 250k you suggest and perhaps gives Pat a bit more to play with?

It's all speculation, I know, but ...........

[heretoday]

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Really don't want us to sign Maybury or Kerr. A bit embarassing that we have even had them on trial. I know there is not a lot of money swirling around the SPL but I can't help but feel Dundee United and Aberdeen (teams who I believe we should be aiming to be as good as if not better season in season out) are managing to assemble far better squads than ours.

Maybury has journeyed around the SPL for a few years now. Deemed not good enough for Aberdeen 4 years ago and hardly a regular in the last two years at St Johnstone.

Kerr was bombed out of Aberdeen a couple of years back, went abroad and was available in January and signed for the mighty Dunfermline and hardly shone as they went down. If he was half decent still he would not have ended up there.

I do understand that times are hard but is it really that bad of me to think we can do better than these two guys?

The only way signing either (Maybury more so than Kerr) would be acceptable is to have as squad players but we have enough of those, we need some real quality of next season will be a struggle. Again.

Maybe I have to be realistic though and say that I really wanted the Huns down the leagues so now we have got that maybe this will be our level of signings.

You're right. It's embarrassing that we are chasing this standard of player and even more so that we apparently can't afford them!

[Part/Time Supporter]

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This is a useful exercise and I agree with the general picture you're painting.

However, I feel that there are a number of the figures you use which, if amended, could change the picture dramatically.

You pointed out yourself the issue of win bonuses etc and it is very difficult to estimate the actual earnings of those already under contract.

However, if we take your figure of an average basic of £1kpw and also use your assumption of 6,000 ST holders I think it might be more accurate to use an average ST value of above the level you have used. The figure of £275 seems on the low side to me.

If we use £325 (still well below the cost of many tickets that will have been sold) and also assume that Osbourne has left - the picture looks a little different:

6,000 x £325 = £1,950,000. That is £300k more than your estimate. Let's say 23 players (now OZZY has gone) at the rate you used (£58.5K) = £1.35m

That leaves available budget of £600k for squad additions instead of the 250k you suggest and perhaps gives Pat a bit more to play with?

It's all speculation, I know, but ...........

You have to take £300K VAT out of your £1.9M income estimate.

[Mikey]

Didn't SL say that 6,800 ST's had been sold and that Hibs got an average of £200 per ST?

[Mikey]

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A bit embarassing that we have even had them on trial.

I wonder how embarrassed the 2500 who haven't renewed are.

[BoltonHibee]

I think it was stated a few weeks ago that sales had been at 6,800 at that point and that after taking Vat etc out the average value was £200 per ticket

[GreenOnions]

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You have to take £300K VAT out of your £1.9M income estimate.

I didn't think that football clubs had to pay tax .............. oh, sorry - I should be on the follow, follow board

[matty_f]

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This is a useful exercise and I agree with the general picture you're painting.

However, I feel that there are a number of the figures you use which, if amended, could change the picture dramatically.

You pointed out yourself the issue of win bonuses etc and it is very difficult to estimate the actual earnings of those already under contract.

However, if we take your figure of an average basic of £1kpw and also use your assumption of 6,000 ST holders I think it might be more accurate to use an average ST value of above the level you have used. The figure of £275 seems on the low side to me.

If we use £325 (still well below the cost of many tickets that will have been sold) and also assume that Osbourne has left - the picture looks a little different:

6,000 x £325 = £1,950,000. That is £300k more than your estimate. Let's say 23 players (now OZZY has gone) at the rate you used (£58.5K) = £1.35m

That leaves available budget of £600k for squad additions instead of the 250k you suggest and perhaps gives Pat a bit more to play with?

It's all speculation, I know, but ...........

We average £200/season ticket.

[Sergio sledge]

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Didn't SL say that 6,800 ST's had been sold and that Hibs got an average of £200 per ST?

Didn't Petrie say on that TV debate that BBC Scotland had that the average price for a season ticket at ER last season was £12 per game, so £228 total?

[eastmainsmsh]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kky_DP00yTM signed for livi looks a player

we could do with a similar sort of player mustve been recommended to Collins

[Mikey]

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Didn't Petrie say on that TV debate that BBC Scotland had that the average price for a season ticket at ER last season was £12 per game, so £228 total?

SL's figure is much more recent and comes after a lot of "kids" renewed so they could get a cup final ticket

[matty_f]

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Didn't Petrie say on that TV debate that BBC Scotland had that the average price for a season ticket at ER last season was £12 per game, so £228 total?

The average has come down because a lot of people bought kids' season tickets to get cup final tickets.

[Smidge]

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I wonder how embarrassed the 2500 who haven't renewed are.

Not embarrassed at all.

I haven't renewed due to a substantial change in my circumstances since the beginning of last season and it is not a luxury that I can afford. Didn't even use my ST for half the games last year, so would have been struggling to justify it even if I had the money. Given the current economic conditions, there will probably be others in the same situation. Had plenty of occasions during my time as an ST holder when I could have not bothered because the football was p1sh, but this isn't one of them.

[scoopyboy]

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This thread on Hibs transfer rumours has already diversified from the original topic so here's another couple of snippets from today's Daily Express.

First of all, Gareth Evans has been appointed first team coach at Livingston and secondly Mark Kerr is now trying to win a contract with Carlisle United so it looks increasingly unlikely that he will be offered any deal with Hibs.

Good news for us Evans got Livi job, we were still paying him!!!!!

I think we might go for Kerr, until he signs a deal with someone else he is still gettable.

[Macaroon]

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Not embarrassed at all.

I haven't renewed due to a substantial change in my circumstances since the beginning of last season and it is not a luxury that I can afford. Didn't even use my ST for half the games last year, so would have been struggling to justify it even if I had the money. Given the current economic conditions, there will probably be others in the same situation. Had plenty of occasions during my time as an ST holder when I could have not bothered because the football was p1sh, but this isn't one of them.

Someone who can't afford a ticket is much different to someone who can and chooses not to as they expect the team to do well without their money.

[Sergio sledge]

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SL's figure is much more recent and comes after a lot of "kids" renewed so they could get a cup final ticket

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The average has come down because a lot of people bought kids' season tickets to get cup final tickets.

[ruthven_raiders]

Surely given the economic situation throughout Europe we should be having loads of trialist from Spain Greece etc as there must be many players struggling to get clubs? We seem to be getting names banded about from Ireland Scotland England, any rumours that PF is spreading his net wide and far?

[SneakersO'Toole]

Maybury and Kerr are about inspiring as a kick in the nads.

Surely we can afford better than SPL journeymen.

[McPake6]

Just wandering if anyones heard any news on strikers coming in? Heard that Griffiths in Edinburgh at the moment... GGTTH

[The Sea-gull]

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I wonder how embarrassed the 2500 who haven't renewed are.

It is the board that should be embarrassed as it is they who did not invest enough when attendances were good circa 2004 to 2010. And what they did invest was invested in poor managers who in turn bought poor players. The fans were just taken for granted and nobody should feel embarrassed for not wanting to fork out at a time when money is tight when their money has been ill spent in the past.

[Andy74]

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Didn't SL say that 6,800 ST's had been sold and that Hibs got an average of £200 per ST?

That's right. They get about £200 on average for each ST.