I think the risk aversion in choosing Moeen is as much to do with his batting as bowling. He makes the tail that bit shorter. I feel a bit sorry for Ben Foakes, I'd have brought Bairstow in for Crawley and kept a proper keeper, although who opens with Duckett would be an interesting question in that circumstance. I think Broad/Anderson/Robinson over Wood are easy choices just due to the conditions. They're all perfect for seaming English wickets. Stokes' fitness is a big worry though. Will B/A/R manage to carry the load of a long Smith/Labuschagne inspired Aussie innings if there's nothing doing for Moeen?

Fascinating stuff.