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Thread: Joe Newell
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28-03-2021 04:40 PM #31
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28-03-2021 04:45 PM #32This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
HIBS FORWARDS 50-100 APP/ GOALS %
01. Alex Linwood - 51/33 65%
02. Gerry Baker - 83/43 52%
03. Leigh Griffiths - 78/39 50%
04. Joe Harper - 99/49 49%
05. Anthony Stokes - 94/45 48%
06. Dominic Malonga - 54/22 41%
07. Gordon Durie - 58/22 38%
08. Steve Cowan - 87/32 37%
09. Christian Doidge 76/27 36%
=09. Florian Kamberi 84/30 36%
10. Steve Archibald - 53/18 34%
11. Willie Irvine Mk1 - 98/31 30%
12. Stevie Crawford - 82/24 29%
13. James Keatings - 72/20 28%
=14. Paco Luna - 50/13 26%
=14. Kenny Miller - 53/14 26%
15. Eoin Doyle - 57/14 25%
16. Keith Houchen - 72/17 24%
17. David Zitelli - 64/13 20%
=17. Gary Murray - 97/19 20%
18. Ally Scott - 54/10 19%
19. Olly Shaw - 65/12 18%
=19. Dirk Lehmann - 71/13 18%
=19. George McCluskey - 95/17 18%
20. Barry Lavety - 72/12 17%Last edited by Bobo; 28-03-2021 at 06:40 PM.
"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it" - George Bernard Shaw.
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28-03-2021 04:47 PM #33
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Last season, his stats obviously made good reading.
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28-03-2021 06:13 PM #34This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I was referring mainly to posters this year who pick fault with Newell and then when they are presented with evidence that contradicts their view, they choose to ignore. I think Fergus52’s latest point summarises this well.
But more generally there is an ignorance around stats. Assists is a prime example. Newell would be judged on the pass before an assist. The likes of Boyle should be judged on Xa - expected assists. We need only look back to Simon Murray to consider a practical example here. He had loads of chances put on a plate in his final few months at Hibs. He missed far too many. That shouldn’t be held against the likes of Boyle and his assist count. The Hibs analysis would look at expected assists.
Similarly with Doidge. He’s had a terrible run for goals but we’d look at his goal involvements, his touches in the opposition box, his expected goals. On these things he’s probably doing alright. And using our eyes, we know he contributes in other ways which are less tangible.
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28-03-2021 06:15 PM #35
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28-03-2021 06:33 PM #36This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
He might only have 3 assists but thats still the second most in our team, behind boyle on 5. No players in the league outside of the old firm have anymore than 4 or 5 assists. They tend to be spread out more amongst the team (unlike goals) and goals such as penalties or from defensive mistakes won't have an assist, so 3 is still a decent number considering how deep he plays usually imo.
Newell having more key passes but Boyle having more actual assists makes sense to me, as Boyle will be getting the ball in more dangerous positions to create higher quality chances from cutbacks and crosses. Newell might have a pass that leads to a shot more often, but when Boyle does it it's probably more likely to lead to a goal. In terms of creating clear cut opportunities in the style we play Boyle is probably our most creative player.
I keep posting the most chances created in the squad stat, not to argue he's our most creative player - but to challenge the claim that he only ever plays the ball sideways and backwards, which is nonsense. As can be seen in the fact that he has the most passes per game that directly lead to a shot.
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28-03-2021 06:34 PM #37This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show QuoteCougars!!!
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28-03-2021 06:44 PM #38This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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28-03-2021 06:47 PM #39This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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28-03-2021 06:56 PM #40
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I do get the thing about key/forward passes but I do think that’s a totally different thing to creating a chance.
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28-03-2021 07:15 PM #41This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Key passes is the last pass before a shot, if a player is taking a shot that's still a chance. Might be a poor quality chance if the player receiving the ball shoots from long range or a silly angle, but still a chance. I'd bet Boyle has a higher expected assists though, which takes into account the quality of the chance created.
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28-03-2021 07:25 PM #42
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28-03-2021 07:27 PM #43
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Expected assists is an interesting dynamic and would be interesting to see for Boyle with his pace.
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28-03-2021 09:15 PM #44
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Think the assists stat is pretty over rated. Allan plays a 50 yard ball that takes out 3 players,our wide man sclaffs in a mi**** cross which falls to a player who scores. Wide man credited with assist but goal really made by Allan.
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29-03-2021 09:27 AM #45This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Had a quick look and in terms of expected assists and expected assists per 90 there is not much between Boyle and Newall, with Boyle having slightly more of the former and Newall more for the latter.
However, Newalls numbers are inflated by set peices, according to modern fitba's data 37% of his expected assists come from set pieces, which might explain why his key passes seems high on the whoscored data as well (if that also includes set pieces).
If you look just at stats for open play, Murphy seems to create our most dangerous chances with an expected assists from open play per 90 of 0.19, followed by Irvine with 0.14. Boyle has 0.11 and Newall 0.10
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29-03-2021 09:35 AM #46
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29-03-2021 09:42 AM #47This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Some players don't score particularly high numbers of assists but in terms of key passes / second assists they do, which is one reason Doidge has been hailed by Ross despite not scoring as many goals this term, so far, as he did last season.They've only gone and done it! They've only gone and won the Scottish Cup! What kept you, Hibs?!
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29-03-2021 10:03 AM #48This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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29-03-2021 01:39 PM #49This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote"The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it" - George Bernard Shaw.
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29-03-2021 02:18 PM #50
I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't rate him. I'm hoping we get a better version of him in the next window and he becomes a backup squad player.
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29-03-2021 02:26 PM #51
I'm not sure about this whole stats business.
They tend to exist to convince you that what you know from seeing with your own eyes isn't true.
Sure, they have a place, but I'm not overly convinced.
Newell - ANOTHER hot and cold player. Has very good games, has very poor games. Our team hasn't looked as good since he came back into it. At times, when the team is on song and he's being played in a position that suits him he's a sublime player.
Nice set piece delivery too. Not sure why we persist with players taking them who are clearly far inferior to him at that.
Hopeless as a goal threat through. He has a nice habit of arriving at a good time, and occasionally has been found with very good cutbacks but his shooting from around the box has been pitiful at times. Having watching him and seen the ability he clearly has you'd expect to see much better from him.
Certainly a player worth holding onto though, and you do feel that with a wee re-shuffle he could be a big part of a very strong team.Last edited by Smartie; 29-03-2021 at 02:31 PM.
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29-03-2021 06:59 PM #52This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I don't understand this false dichotomy a lot of football fans like to push that judging a player with your eyes or by using stats are diametrically opposed.
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30-03-2021 01:02 PM #53
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Seeing all these 'expert' posters here, maybe that's why JR can't seem to pick his best 11 week on week
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