Joe Newell

[hibbysam]

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My first post today was more focussed on the midfield and where Newell fits, or possibly doesn’t. I said he wasn’t solely to blame for the midfield issues and had mitigation when in a two up against a 3 etc. I also explained my opinion that he’s a good but inconsistent player, but I feel he makes the midfield less than the sum of its parts despite his ability. The post you’ve quoted was a reply of mine to someone specifically talking about the issue of losing the midfield.

On the games I listed. Those were games I felt the midfield, including Newell, struggled in. There were others like Killie opening day or the 3-2 win v Hamilton etc where I felt the midfield (and the team, but this thread is about Newell/the midfield) struggled for large parts within the game. I didn’t include them as wasn’t trying to go over and above with negative examples.

On the stats, they are of course important. However they show that Newell makes more tackles and interceptions than anyone else, while also creating the most chances. Those stats would appear to show that Newell is our best defensive midfielder as well as out most creative one. However I’d not make a case for Newell in either category or have him in defensive midfield before Gogic or attacking midfield before Murphy. I think Gogic & Irvine can play together, but it doesn’t really work Newell playing with either or both. As I say, a good but inconsistent player, but I think he makes the midfield less than the sum of its parts despite his ability.

You think we struggled against Hamilton in the 3-2 game? The game we pummelled them until Porto imploded for 5 minutes?

[Bobo]

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I think stats can be argued with.

Take Doidge, his stats for a striker must be rubbish but people will tell you how good a job he does for the team.

I think there is a place for stats but would always trust my eyes over stats when judging a player.

His stats are not as bad as most would like to think when compared to similar appearance levels of other players. Equal 9th out of 25.

HIBS FORWARDS 50-100 APP/ GOALS %

01. Alex Linwood - 51/33 65%
02. Gerry Baker - 83/43 52%
03. Leigh Griffiths - 78/39 50%
04. Joe Harper - 99/49 49%
05. Anthony Stokes - 94/45 48%
06. Dominic Malonga - 54/22 41%
07. Gordon Durie - 58/22 38%
08. Steve Cowan - 87/32 37%
09. Christian Doidge 76/27 36%
=09. Florian Kamberi 84/30 36%
10. Steve Archibald - 53/18 34%
11. Willie Irvine Mk1 - 98/31 30%
12. Stevie Crawford - 82/24 29%
13. James Keatings - 72/20 28%
=14. Paco Luna - 50/13 26%
=14. Kenny Miller - 53/14 26%
15. Eoin Doyle - 57/14 25%
16. Keith Houchen - 72/17 24%
17. David Zitelli - 64/13 20%
=17. Gary Murray - 97/19 20%
18. Ally Scott - 54/10 19%
19. Olly Shaw - 65/12 18%
=19. Dirk Lehmann - 71/13 18%
=19. George McCluskey - 95/17 18%
20. Barry Lavety - 72/12 17%

[B.H.F.C]

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His stats are not as bad as most would like to think when compared to similar appearance levels of other players. Equal 9th out of 25.

HIBS FORWARDS 50-100 APP/ GOALS %

01. Alex Linwood - 51/33 65%
02. Gerry Baker - 83/43 52%
03. Leigh Griffiths - 78/39 50%
04. Joe Harper - 99/49 49%
05. Anthony Stokes - 94/45 48%
06. Dominic Malonga - 54/22 41%
07. Gordon Durie - 58/22 38%
08. Steve Cowan - 87/32 37%
09. Christian Doidge 76/27 36%
=09. Florian Kamberi 84/30 36%
10. Steve Archibald - 53/18 34%
11. Willie Irvine Mk1 - 98/31 30%
12. Stevie Crawford - 82/24 29%
13. James Keatings - 72/20 28%
=14. Paco Luna - 50/13 26%
=14. Kenny Miller - 53/14 26%
15. Eoin Doyle - 57/14 25%
16. Keith Houchen - 72/17 24%
17. David Zitelli - 64/13 20%
=17. Gary Murray - 97/19 20%
18. Ally Scott - 54/10 19%
19. Olly Shaw - 65/12 18%
=19. Dirk Lehmann - 71/13 18%
=19. George McCluskey - 95/17 18%
20. Barry Lavety - 72/12 17%

I should have qualified that by talking about his recent form of 1 in 15 or whatever it is.

Last season, his stats obviously made good reading.

[Tyler Durden]

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I think stats can be argued with.

Take the chances created one as an example. What constitutes a chance? He’s only got three assists which suggests, to me, that he’s not overly creative. Either that or he’s been extremely unlucky that nobody has put away all those chances he’s created.

And I think it works both ways. Take Doidge, his stats for a striker must be rubbish but people will tell you how good a job he does for the team.

I think there is a place for stats but would always trust my eyes over stats when judging a player.

I think everyone would agree with your final sentence.

I was referring mainly to posters this year who pick fault with Newell and then when they are presented with evidence that contradicts their view, they choose to ignore. I think Fergus52’s latest point summarises this well.

But more generally there is an ignorance around stats. Assists is a prime example. Newell would be judged on the pass before an assist. The likes of Boyle should be judged on Xa - expected assists. We need only look back to Simon Murray to consider a practical example here. He had loads of chances put on a plate in his final few months at Hibs. He missed far too many. That shouldn’t be held against the likes of Boyle and his assist count. The Hibs analysis would look at expected assists.

Similarly with Doidge. He’s had a terrible run for goals but we’d look at his goal involvements, his touches in the opposition box, his expected goals. On these things he’s probably doing alright. And using our eyes, we know he contributes in other ways which are less tangible.

[loanheadhibby]

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Hes played very well for us this season. Outside chance of making the England squad this summer?

Keep taking the tablets, this is possibly the most ridiculous post I've ever read on the forum.

[Fergus52]

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I think stats can be argued with.

Take the chances created one as an example. What constitutes a chance? He’s only got three assists which suggests, to me, that he’s not overly creative. Either that or he’s been extremely unlucky that nobody has put away all those chances he’s created.

And I think it works both ways. Take Doidge, his stats for a striker must be rubbish but people will tell you how good a job he does for the team.

I think there is a place for stats but would always trust my eyes over stats when judging a player.

Chances created I took from his stats on "key passes" which is the final pass before a shot on goal.

He might only have 3 assists but thats still the second most in our team, behind boyle on 5. No players in the league outside of the old firm have anymore than 4 or 5 assists. They tend to be spread out more amongst the team (unlike goals) and goals such as penalties or from defensive mistakes won't have an assist, so 3 is still a decent number considering how deep he plays usually imo.

Newell having more key passes but Boyle having more actual assists makes sense to me, as Boyle will be getting the ball in more dangerous positions to create higher quality chances from cutbacks and crosses. Newell might have a pass that leads to a shot more often, but when Boyle does it it's probably more likely to lead to a goal. In terms of creating clear cut opportunities in the style we play Boyle is probably our most creative player.

I keep posting the most chances created in the squad stat, not to argue he's our most creative player - but to challenge the claim that he only ever plays the ball sideways and backwards, which is nonsense. As can be seen in the fact that he has the most passes per game that directly lead to a shot.

[HH81]

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This is the biggest wind up of all time.

England now have one of the best squads in the world.

I watched some of the game today. They are awful.

[Lancs Harp]

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I watched some of the game today. They are awful.

As an Englishman it wasnt great but we won 2-0 without getting out of reverse. If you think England are awful, fair enough.

[hibbysam]

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As an Englishman it wasnt great but we won 2-0 without getting out of reverse. If you think England are awful, fair enough.

It’s just extremely boring to watch from a neutral and understand the lack of opposition, just think with the players available should be far more expansive.

[B.H.F.C]

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Chances created I took from his stats on "key passes" which is the final pass before a shot on goal.

He might only have 3 assists but thats still the second most in our team, behind boyle on 5. No players in the league outside of the old firm have anymore than 4 or 5 assists. They tend to be spread out more amongst the team (unlike goals) and goals such as penalties or from defensive mistakes won't have an assist, so 3 is still a decent number considering how deep he plays usually imo.

Newell having more key passes but Boyle having more actual assists makes sense to me, as Boyle will be getting the ball in more dangerous positions to create higher quality chances from cutbacks and crosses. Newell might have a pass that leads to a shot more often, but when Boyle does it it's probably more likely to lead to a goal. In terms of creating clear cut opportunities in the style we play Boyle is probably our most creative player.

I keep posting the most chances created in the squad stat, not to argue he's our most creative player - but to challenge the claim that he only ever plays the ball sideways and backwards, which is nonsense. As can be seen in the fact that he has the most passes per game that directly lead to a shot.

Boyle has double that number of assists in all competitions (7 in the league I think). Nisbet on 5 and quite a few including Newell on 4.

I do get the thing about key/forward passes but I do think that’s a totally different thing to creating a chance.

[Fergus52]

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Boyle has double that number of assists in all competitions (7 in the league I think). Nisbet on 5 and quite a few including Newell on 4.

I do get the thing about key/forward passes but I do think that’s a totally different thing to creating a chance.

Yeah I was looking league only tbf.

Key passes is the last pass before a shot, if a player is taking a shot that's still a chance. Might be a poor quality chance if the player receiving the ball shoots from long range or a silly angle, but still a chance. I'd bet Boyle has a higher expected assists though, which takes into account the quality of the chance created.

[B.H.F.C]

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Yeah I was looking league only tbf.

Key passes is the last pass before a shot, if a player is taking a shot that's still a chance. Might be a poor quality chance if the player receiving the ball shoots from long range or a silly angle, but still a chance. I'd bet Boyle has a higher expected assists though, which takes into account the quality of the chance created.

I think that’s just kind of what I was meaning about judging on what I see rather than on stats. If it leads to a shot you can obviously argue it’s a chance, but watching a game you know what is a chance and what isn’t.

[Allez Hibs]

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Yeah I was looking league only tbf.

Key passes is the last pass before a shot, if a player is taking a shot that's still a chance. Might be a poor quality chance if the player receiving the ball shoots from long range or a silly angle, but still a chance. I'd bet Boyle has a higher expected assists though, which takes into account the quality of the chance created.

Do you have a link to the stats?

Expected assists is an interesting dynamic and would be interesting to see for Boyle with his pace.

[ancient hibee]

Think the assists stat is pretty over rated. Allan plays a 50 yard ball that takes out 3 players,our wide man sclaffs in a mi**** cross which falls to a player who scores. Wide man credited with assist but goal really made by Allan.

[Fergus52]

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Do you have a link to the stats?

Expected assists is an interesting dynamic and would be interesting to see for Boyle with his pace.

Don't think that data is available publicly on sites like whoscored, but it can be accessed through the modern fitba patreon.

Had a quick look and in terms of expected assists and expected assists per 90 there is not much between Boyle and Newall, with Boyle having slightly more of the former and Newall more for the latter.

However, Newalls numbers are inflated by set peices, according to modern fitba's data 37% of his expected assists come from set pieces, which might explain why his key passes seems high on the whoscored data as well (if that also includes set pieces).

If you look just at stats for open play, Murphy seems to create our most dangerous chances with an expected assists from open play per 90 of 0.19, followed by Irvine with 0.14. Boyle has 0.11 and Newall 0.10

[Allez Hibs]

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Don't think that data is available publicly on sites like whoscored, but it can be accessed through the modern fitba patreon.

Had a quick look and in terms of expected assists and expected assists per 90 there is not much between Boyle and Newall, with Boyle having slightly more of the former and Newall more for the latter.

However, Newalls numbers are inflated by set peices, according to modern fitba's data 37% of his expected assists come from set pieces, which might explain why his key passes seems high on the whoscored data as well (if that also includes set pieces).

If you look just at stats for open play, Murphy seems to create our most dangerous chances with an expected assists from open play per 90 of 0.19, followed by Irvine with 0.14. Boyle has 0.11 and Newall 0.10

That is interesting, thanks.

[Bayern Bru]

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Think the assists stat is pretty over rated. Allan plays a 50 yard ball that takes out 3 players,our wide man sclaffs in a mi**** cross which falls to a player who scores. Wide man credited with assist but goal really made by Allan.

That's where the key passes stat comes into play, or second assist.

Some players don't score particularly high numbers of assists but in terms of key passes / second assists they do, which is one reason Doidge has been hailed by Ross despite not scoring as many goals this term, so far, as he did last season.

[Diclonius]

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His stats are not as bad as most would like to think when compared to similar appearance levels of other players. Equal 9th out of 25.

HIBS FORWARDS 50-100 APP/ GOALS %

01. Alex Linwood - 51/33 65%
02. Gerry Baker - 83/43 52%
03. Leigh Griffiths - 78/39 50%
04. Joe Harper - 99/49 49%
05. Anthony Stokes - 94/45 48%
06. Dominic Malonga - 54/22 41%
07. Gordon Durie - 58/22 38%
08. Steve Cowan - 87/32 37%
09. Christian Doidge 76/27 36%
=09. Florian Kamberi 84/30 36%
10. Steve Archibald - 53/18 34%
11. Willie Irvine Mk1 - 98/31 30%
12. Stevie Crawford - 82/24 29%
13. James Keatings - 72/20 28%
=14. Paco Luna - 50/13 26%
=14. Kenny Miller - 53/14 26%
15. Eoin Doyle - 57/14 25%
16. Keith Houchen - 72/17 24%
17. David Zitelli - 64/13 20%
=17. Gary Murray - 97/19 20%
18. Ally Scott - 54/10 19%
19. Olly Shaw - 65/12 18%
=19. Dirk Lehmann - 71/13 18%
=19. George McCluskey - 95/17 18%
20. Barry Lavety - 72/12 17%

That's really interesting reading. Do you have the stats for goal/appearance percentage for all Hibs players irrespective of total appearances?

[Bobo]

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That's really interesting reading. Do you have the stats for goal/appearance percentage for all Hibs players irrespective of total appearances?

No I don't, sorry, I only dug out the scoring stats relating to strikers within the 50-100 game bracket.

[blackpoolhibs]

I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't rate him. I'm hoping we get a better version of him in the next window and he becomes a backup squad player.

[Smartie]

I'm not sure about this whole stats business.

They tend to exist to convince you that what you know from seeing with your own eyes isn't true.

Sure, they have a place, but I'm not overly convinced.

Newell - ANOTHER hot and cold player. Has very good games, has very poor games. Our team hasn't looked as good since he came back into it. At times, when the team is on song and he's being played in a position that suits him he's a sublime player.

Nice set piece delivery too. Not sure why we persist with players taking them who are clearly far inferior to him at that.

Hopeless as a goal threat through. He has a nice habit of arriving at a good time, and occasionally has been found with very good cutbacks but his shooting from around the box has been pitiful at times. Having watching him and seen the ability he clearly has you'd expect to see much better from him.

Certainly a player worth holding onto though, and you do feel that with a wee re-shuffle he could be a big part of a very strong team.

[Fergus52]

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I'm not sure about this whole stats business.

They tend to exist to convince you that what you know from seeing with your own eyes isn't true.

Sure, they have a place, but I'm not overly convinced.

If anything its the opposite - everyone watching football has subconscious biases about players they like, how they generally see the game etc. Looking at stats never tells the whole picture but it helps cut through that bias with a bit of objectivity.

I don't understand this false dichotomy a lot of football fans like to push that judging a player with your eyes or by using stats are diametrically opposed.

[CJHibby]

Seeing all these 'expert' posters here, maybe that's why JR can't seem to pick his best 11 week on week