Countdown to 3rd place thread

[MWHIBBIES]

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Anymore performances like Saturday and 7/2 is a cracking price for Aberdeen

Is that Aberdeen who are in 11th place over the last 10 games? I think that price is quite right, Aberdeen are in real bad form.

[Sir David Gray]

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Not if you read the Aberdeen press. They were resigned to going 7 behind but Hibs have thrown them a life line, with Hibs still to go to their place. Expect major mind-games in the next few weeks from Aberdeen. Up to Hibs to show if they have the bottle to see this through.

I think that's fair when looking at it from their point of view.

If we were in Aberdeen's position and we were expecting to go 7 points behind them having played a game more and they lost at home unexpectedly then I would expect us to view that positively by seeing it as a lifeline.

It's up to us to prove them wrong and get the wins required to finish 3rd.

I'd still rather be in our position than theirs.

[GreenCastle]

Hibs haven’t beaten Aberdeen away from home since May 2012.

I don’t want Hibs to be in a situation where they have to go there and win.

The next 3 games before the split are so important for our points total and psychologically going into split.

[Stuart93]

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Is that Aberdeen who are in 11th place over the last 10 games? I think that price is quite right, Aberdeen are in real bad form.

If we continue to play like we did on Saturday we could find our form just as bad and at this point of the season we can’t afford that

[1van Sprou7e]

3 away games before the split, no easy games but we have won 9/14 away games so far this season, dropping points at Ibrox, Parkhead (x2), Pittodrie and at Ross County

Bodes well for us and we should still be confident of extending our lead over Aberdeen going into the final 5 games

[Wakeyhibee]

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3 away games before the split, no easy games but we have won 9/14 away games so far this season, dropping points at Ibrox, Parkhead (x2), Pittodrie and at Ross County

Bodes well for us and we should still be confident of extending our lead over Aberdeen going into the final 5 games

Nothing bodes well on here at the moment :) but I do take heart that Aberdeen have a mountain to climb with their team, fixtures and points deficit on us.

I think we'll do enough by the split to make Aberdeen needing a near miracle post split.

[wallpaperman]

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Is that Aberdeen who are in 11th place over the last 10 games? I think that price is quite right, Aberdeen are in real bad form.

Yep, that’ll be those devastating Dons who have scored one whole goal their last 8 league games. Fearsome.

[bingo70]

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Yep, that’ll be those devastating Dons who have scored one whole goal their last 8 league games. Fearsome.

I get what you’re saying however last form isn’t always an indicator of future form.

Apparently unlucky not to beat Celtic at the weekend and the week before that they obviously won.

Bad runs like Aberdeen have been on don’t last forever and I think there’s been signs of shoots of recovery for them.

[scoopyboy]

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Yep, that’ll be those devastating Dons who have scored one whole goal their last 8 league games. Fearsome.

Doesn't imply they will score one in their next eight though does it?

We have a lot of work to do to finish third.

[1620]

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Doesn't imply they will score one in their next eight though does it?

We have a lot of work to do to finish third.

I completely agree with your last sentence. At the moment we have two off form strikers, midfield players who don’t contribute goals and practically no goals coming from set pieces. If the opposition closes out Boyle they have a reasonable chance of winning 3 points.
I take no pleasure whatsoever in saying this but it is how things are at the moment.

[JimBHibees]

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I get what you’re saying however last form isn’t always an indicator of future form.

Apparently unlucky not to beat Celtic at the weekend and the week before that they obviously won.

Bad runs like Aberdeen have been on don’t last forever and I think there’s been signs of shoots of recovery for them.

Agree have played pretty well in recent games especially games at Parkhead

[CB Hibs 68]

I think we need to keep some sort of perspective here as we have only lost one game in five.Saturday's performance was poor by any standard but we have bounced back from poor results already this season.The result and performance against St Johnstone will be a better indicator as to how the rest of the season will pan out.My one worry however is that a Hibs dip in form coincides with Aberdeen stringing some results together.Time will tell but if I was given our current position and points at the turn of the year I would have gladly accepted

[blackpoolhibs]

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I get what you’re saying however last form isn’t always an indicator of future form.

Apparently unlucky not to beat Celtic at the weekend and the week before that they obviously won.

Bad runs like Aberdeen have been on don’t last forever and I think there’s been signs of shoots of recovery for them.

That scenario was not allowed only a month ago, when Livingston overtook us?

[MWHIBBIES]

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If we continue to play like we did on Saturday we could find our form just as bad and at this point of the season we can’t afford that

If we continue to play like Saturday we'll be relegated next season. Do you like thats likely?

[SaulGoodman]

It’s almost as if every football team on the planet has good games and bad games.

[Northernhibee]

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It’s almost as if every football team on the planet has good games and bad games.

If Aberdeen were the team who had won four out of five (including a game against ourselves) and we were in their current form, we'd still have written off our chances of finishing third and be calling for the manager to go. No doubt about it. We'd damn sure have just called Saturday a "blip" too.

[hibbysam]

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If Aberdeen were the team who had won four out of five (including a game against ourselves) and we were in their current form, we'd still have written off our chances of finishing third and be calling for the manager to go. No doubt about it. We'd damn sure have just called Saturday a "blip" too.

Agreed. Barring Christmas time when we lost 3 in a row, has there been any other occasions where we haven’t bounced back from a piss poor performance? We’ve lost 2 games in our last 8 and now we’re suddenly going to lose loads on the bounce.

[1van Sprou7e]

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Agreed. Barring Christmas time when we lost 3 in a row, has there been any other occasions where we haven’t bounced back from a piss poor performance? We’ve lost 2 games in our last 8 and now we’re suddenly going to lose loads on the bounce.

That's a good point which I hadn't really realised before, we've really only had that one run of poor form this season

[hibbysam]

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That's a good point which I hadn't really realised before, we've really only had that one run of poor form this season

Poor performance/result at home to Aberdeen - hammered St Mirren.
Lost to Celtic - put in a very good performance bar 10 minutes vs Hamilton.
Poor performance/result at Pittodrie - went 5 unbeaten.
Poor spell at Xmas
Lost at Ibrox - won 4 on the bounce after that.

It’s one thing I’m confident of with this team is a bounce back from a tough spell. Can’t see any way whatsoever of us losing the next 3 games (4 on the spin) like some are saying.

[cabbageandribs1875]

3/1 aberdeen to finish 3rd...Mmmm, interesting

[hibbysam]

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3/1 aberdeen to finish 3rd...Mmmm, interesting

Man Utd were 3/1 to win the EPL at one stage. Save your money.

[scoopyboy]

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3/1 aberdeen to finish 3rd...Mmmm, interesting

Insurance policy perhaps.

They are coming in, they were 7/2 at the weekend.

[Northernhibee]

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3/1 aberdeen to finish 3rd...Mmmm, interesting

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/premiership/

This gives Aberdeen an 11% chance of finishing third. Slightly up from last week (IIRC it was about five or six per cent) but still unlikely.

We have an 86% chance of finishing third.

[jacomo]

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/premiership/

This gives Aberdeen an 11% chance of finishing third. Slightly up from last week (IIRC it was about five or six per cent) but still unlikely.

We have an 86% chance of finishing third.

Is this the same algorithm that predicted Celtc had a 90% chance of 10IAR?

I’m getting tired of the growing mathematical analysis of football. It’s a team game that is reliant on moments of individual brilliance. You can stick xG and the like imo.

[hibbysam]

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Is this the same algorithm that predicted Celtc had a 90% chance of 10IAR?

I’m getting tired of the growing mathematical analysis of football. It’s a team game that is reliant on moments of individual brilliance. You can stick xG and the like imo.

Totally agree with the general point your making. Cringe every time I see xG 😂 I still don’t see us going through such a rough patch when we haven’t all season bar two bad games in a row, we’ve bounced back every time and I’d imagine we will do so again this time.

[Northernhibee]

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Is this the same algorithm that predicted Celtc had a 90% chance of 10IAR?

I’m getting tired of the growing mathematical analysis of football. It’s a team game that is reliant on moments of individual brilliance. You can stick xG and the like imo.

If that was the case then data analysts, sports scientists and the like wouldn't be required in football. It's not foolproof but there is also plenty to gather from it as well. It's what predicted that we'd go through a really rough patch with Heckingbottom even when we went on that winning run so we can both pick things from it to make a point.

[Onion]

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Agreed. Barring Christmas time when we lost 3 in a row, has there been any other occasions where we haven’t bounced back from a piss poor performance? We’ve lost 2 games in our last 8 and now we’re suddenly going to lose loads on the bounce.

Maybe, but we're at the business end of the season when pressure comes into play, just as it does in a Cup semifinal . Aberdeen have nothing to prove when it comes to toughing things out, they've done it for years. Hibs in the other hand .... This run-in will be less about ability and more about bottle and ambition.

[KeithTheHibby]

Picking up points in the top six is incredibly difficult unless you are the Old firm.

If we head into the split with, say, a five point gap over Aberdeen I seriously doubt anything they do in those 5 games would be enough to overhaul us.

The games before the split are crucial.

[hibbysam]

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Maybe, but we're at the business end of the season when pressure comes into play, just as it does in a Cup semifinal . Aberdeen have nothing to prove when it comes to toughing things out, they've done it for years. Hibs in the other hand .... This run-in will be less about ability and more about bottle and ambition.

When was the last time we had a poor end to a season? Pressure is all on them, their fans are revolting, their manager is under severe pressure, they’ve barely scored a goal let alone win games for months. Couple all that with the fact they are 4 behind plus goal difference with only 7 games to go for them, and us having a game extra. Even us losing the game in hand means they have to win 2 more games than us between now and the end of the season.

[Fergus52]

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Totally agree with the general point your making. Cringe every time I see xG 😂 I still don’t see us going through such a rough patch when we haven’t all season bar two bad games in a row, we’ve bounced back every time and I’d imagine we will do so again this time.

I see xG getting misused a lot, but completely writing it off as a useful metric is just stupid.

xG difference has been proven to be a much better indicator of how well a team is playing and how many points they are likely to pick up for the rest of the season than points won, goal difference, goals scored, chances created etc.

For example when St mirren were sitting in 11th for a while, looking at xG difference they were actually the 6th/7th best team in the league, which is reflected in the table now after more games have been played.