Countdown to 3rd place thread

[Juniper Greens]

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That all depends on when the draws are, if the final draw is before we play our second tie then in the draw we’d take the team we are playing’s seeding for the purposes of the draw.

Great point. That might help matters a bit then.

Worth noting that Barry Town, Lithuanian teams and Luxembourg teams all have higher coefficients than hibs at the moment, even after for allowing that we take quarter the total Scottish coefficient as a floor.

[rodhibs55]

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As an aside to the main discussion here. The prize money for this years league for 3rd is £2,062,500, the Championship, for the winner is £562,500 meaning we should get in prize money alone £1.5mil more than our city rivals (at current standing).

That's a BIG difference and we know what they think about BIG.

[hibbysam]

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Great point. That might help matters a bit then.

Worth noting that Barry Town, Lithuanian teams and Luxembourg teams all have higher coefficients than hibs at the moment, even after for allowing that we take quarter the total Scottish coefficient as a floor.

Yeah, although Brondby was a class night it was another first round defeat. 2018 helped but we need to be competing regularly to get that coefficient up. Getting into the group stages will certainly help as I think you get an automatic number of points so that you get more than those that got knocked out in the qualifiers.

[Wakeyhibee]

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As an aside to the main discussion here. The prize money for this years league for 3rd is £2,062,500, the Championship, for the winner is £562,500 meaning we should get in prize money alone £1.5mil more than our city rivals (at current standing).

2019/20 figures, with the new deal (minus rebate) I think the gap maybe bigger than that.

[JeMeSouviens]

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So do we want a Celtic win next week to help us finish 3rd but have almost no chance of 2nd or an Aberdeen win to help us get a chance of finishing 2nd but risk dropping down to 4th?

Celtic win every day of the week for me.

I'm already quite excited about seeing us playing in the group stages of Europe even if it is in the Europa Conference League. To be honest I'm more excited about that than the prospect of playing a bunch of qualifiers even if one of those rounds is in the Champions League.

Although it would be very satisfying to finish above Celtic.

I just can't see any way that we pick up 13 more points than Celtic over the last 9 games of the season.

Win our game in hand and beat them in the post split game and suddenly it's only 7 pts.

A Celtc-Sheep 0-0 with plenty of injuries and red cards for me.

[Sir David Gray]

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Is that the PPG that the team in third actually achieved, or the PPG that they would have needed to give them one point more than the team in fourth?

Since we went to a 12 team league in 00/01 and based on the number of points the 4th placed team got, in order to finish 3rd teams needed the following number of points;

00/01 - 55
01/02 - 56
02/03 - 58
03/04 - 54
04/05 - 61 (3rd and 4th finished on the same points and it was decided on goal difference)
05/06 - 57
06/07 - 62
07/08 - 54
08/09 - 54
09/10 - 55
10/11 - 62
11/12 - 60 (Due to the liquidation of Rangers, all the quaified teams moved up one place so 53 points would have been enough to finish in the top Europa League spot which was 4th)
12/13 - 55
13/14 - 59
14/15 - 58
15/16 - 57
16/17 - 59
17/18 - 68
18/19 - 67 (3rd and 4th finished on the same points and it was decided on goal difference)
19/20 - 58 (season abandoned early - based on the PPG gained by the time the season was finished 58 points would have been enough to finish 3rd)

Rounding things up to the nearest whole number, an average of 59 points is enough to finish 3rd since we have had a 12 team league.

However Aberdeen's currently on track to get around 61 points so 10 points for us should hopefully be enough.

[superfurryhibby]

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Since we went to a 12 team league in 00/01 and based on the number of points the 4th placed team got, in order to finish 3rd teams needed the following number of points;

00/01 - 55
01/02 - 56
02/03 - 58
03/04 - 54
04/05 - 61 (3rd and 4th finished on the same points and it was decided on goal difference)
05/06 - 57
06/07 - 62
07/08 - 54
08/09 - 54
09/10 - 55
10/11 - 62
11/12 - 60 (Due to the liquidation of Rangers, all the quaified teams moved up one place so 53 points would have been enough to finish in the top Europa League spot which was 4th)
12/13 - 55
13/14 - 59
14/15 - 58
15/16 - 57
16/17 - 59
17/18 - 68
18/19 - 67 (3rd and 4th finished on the same points and it was decided on goal difference)
19/20 - 58 (season abandoned early - based on the PPG gained by the time the season was finished 58 points would have been enough to finish 3rd)

Rounding things up to the nearest whole number, an average of 59 points is enough to finish 3rd since we have had a 12 team league.

However Aberdeen's currently on track to get around 61 points so 10 points for us should hopefully be enough.

Good work SDG, helps put some perspective on how well we have performed thus far.

[silverhibee]

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Tend to agree.

Everyone, myself included, is talking as if it’s a banker we will win our game in hand.

The team we play our game in hand against just beat Celtic and pumped us the last time we played them.

In fairness, there’s absolutely no need for this post pishing on everyone’s chips when I think most realise it’s very unlikely, but not impossible.

Nothing wrong with letting our minds wander a bit as long as the players don’t. Also got to hope it helps keep the players minds focused.

The manager and players will take it a game at a time, our players aren't under the pressure that Celtc players are, the more games we win the more confident our players will get and I think we are seeing that, even when not playing that well we are getting the 3 points, I hope our players are thinking that 2nd is a possibility as well and not thinking we need to hold on to 3rd.

[silverhibee]

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So do we want a Celtic win next week to help us finish 3rd but have almost no chance of 2nd or an Aberdeen win to help us get a chance of finishing 2nd but risk dropping down to 4th?

Celtic win every day of the week for me.

I'm already quite excited about seeing us playing in the group stages of Europe even if it is in the Europa Conference League. To be honest I'm more excited about that than the prospect of playing a bunch of qualifiers even if one of those rounds is in the Champions League.

Although it would be very satisfying to finish above Celtic.

I just can't see any way that we pick up 13 more points than Celtic over the last 9 games of the season.

A Dons win, let's see what our team is made off while under a bit pressure, if our players are up for it they will relish the challenge, let's look up rather than down.

[scoopyboy]

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A Dons win, let's see what our team is made off while under a bit pressure, if our players are up for it they will relish the challenge, let's look up rather than down.

I'm the opposite Silv, I want a comfortable third place and therefore a Celtic win on Saturday will do me nicely.

I've a gut feeling Aberdeen will get something from Parkhead on Saturday.

[flash]

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I'm the opposite Silv, I want a comfortable third place and therefore a Celtic win on Saturday will do me nicely.

I've a gut feeling Aberdeen will get something from Parkhead on Saturday.

We ain't finishing second unless Celtic stop playing games. Just keep Aberdeen away from us please.

[silverhibee]

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I'm the opposite Silv, I want a comfortable third place and therefore a Celtic win on Saturday will do me nicely.

I've a gut feeling Aberdeen will get something from Parkhead on Saturday.

For the size of this club we should be in this position every year Scoops, this is the kind of pressure you want the players to be under, they should relish it, the manager brought in some good additions in the January window and it looks like they are gelling well, we shouldn't be feared of any team in this league just now the form we are in, winning can only breed confidence within the squad, if Aberdeen take something from Celtc and we beat a poor Motherwell side on Saturday then the clubs under more pressure will be Celtc and still Aberdeen and we just keep going about our business and win games and see where it takes us, this has been a strange season and anything can happen, we won't ever get a better chance of splitting the top 2, I mean who would have thought that the Rangers would run a way with the league this season and Celtc to go in to absolute meltdown, 3rd would be great for the club, 2nd would be even better and for as long as it's possible the players should be going for it.

Stay safe Scoops.

[Since452]

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So do we want a Celtic win next week to help us finish 3rd but have almost no chance of 2nd or an Aberdeen win to help us get a chance of finishing 2nd but risk dropping down to 4th?

Celtic win every day of the week for me.

I'm already quite excited about seeing us playing in the group stages of Europe even if it is in the Europa Conference League. To be honest I'm more excited about that than the prospect of playing a bunch of qualifiers even if one of those rounds is in the Champions League.

Although it would be very satisfying to finish above Celtic.

I just can't see any way that we pick up 13 more points than Celtic over the last 9 games of the season.

Got to be realistic about it. Far more chance of Aberdeen catching us than us catching Celtic. Celtic had won five on the bounce before last night. Celtic to batter Aberdeen and increase our goal difference is what I want.

[SJNB Hibby]

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Got to be realistic about it. Far more chance of Aberdeen catching us than us catching Celtic. Celtic had won five on the bounce before last night. Celtic to batter Aberdeen and increase our goal difference is what I want.

We beat motherwell.. the other result is a win-win

[Sir David Gray]

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Got to be realistic about it. Far more chance of Aberdeen catching us than us catching Celtic. Celtic had won five on the bounce before last night. Celtic to batter Aberdeen and increase our goal difference is what I want.

Absolutely.

I'm always happy when a team is at least two wins away from catching us as Aberdeen are at the moment.

Obviously if we keep winning then it won't matter but if Aberdeen win on Saturday it gives them a huge boost and one bad result for us puts us under pressure again.

With the best will in the world we're almost certainly not catching Celtic - we would probably need to win practically all of our remaining matches to do so.

I'm more than happy for Aberdeen to get pumped rotten on Saturday.

[scoopyboy]

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For the size of this club we should be in this position every year Scoops, this is the kind of pressure you want the players to be under, they should relish it, the manager brought in some good additions in the January window and it looks like they are gelling well, we shouldn't be feared of any team in this league just now the form we are in, winning can only breed confidence within the squad, if Aberdeen take something from Celtc and we beat a poor Motherwell side on Saturday then the clubs under more pressure will be Celtc and still Aberdeen and we just keep going about our business and win games and see where it takes us, this has been a strange season and anything can happen, we won't ever get a better chance of splitting the top 2, I mean who would have thought that the Rangers would run a way with the league this season and Celtc to go in to absolute meltdown, 3rd would be great for the club, 2nd would be even better and for as long as it's possible the players should be going for it.

Stay safe Scoops.

I get what your saying Silv and can't really argue with it, not that I would want to anyway

I just think that to finish third is huge this season with the prospect of a lengthy European campaign.

My fear is we slip up against Motherwell and Aberdeen win at Parkhead as it would be a huge physcological swing in their favour and I don't want that.

In a pontoon scenario its almost stick or twist, I would stick with what I have and you would twist which is fair enough.

Stay safe Silv

[Northernhibee]

It'd be nice if (apart from against us) Livingston found their feet again. It'd be nice for Aberdeen to be looking over their shoulders at them than at us. Far easier to do the chasing than being chased IMO

[blackpoolhibs]

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It'd be nice if (apart from against us) Livingston found their feet again. It'd be nice for Aberdeen to be looking over their shoulders at them than at us. Far easier to do the chasing than being chased IMO

They will find form again soon, as they are finishing 4th ahead of us.

[Onion]

If top 6 remains as is, anyone figured out our likely home / away games ?

[1van Sprou7e]

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Good work SDG, helps put some perspective on how well we have performed thus far.

According to 538 (which take current form into account too) aberdeen are on track to get 57 while we are predicted to get 65

[hibbysam]

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If top 6 remains as is, anyone figured out our likely home / away games ?

We’re due 3 home 2 away.
Home - livi, Celtic, st mirren
Away - Rangers, Aberdeen

[Northernhibee]

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According to 538 (which take current form into account too) aberdeen are on track to get 57 while we are predicted to get 65

Aberdeen only with a 7% chance of finishing third according to them.

[04Sauzee]

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Aberdeen only with a 7% chance of finishing third according to them.

The same 7% Ross County had of beating Celtic last might 😁

[Onion]

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We’re due 3 home 2 away.
Home - livi, Celtic, st mirren
Away - Rangers, Aberdeen

Thanks. That's not bad. Celtic will be turmoil, looking to rebuild with a new manager to find. The Rangers will have the league wrapped up and proclaimed themselves Masters of the Football Universe, just a they did in May 2016.

[hibbysam]

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Thanks. That's not bad. Celtic will be turmoil, looking to rebuild with a new manager to find. The Rangers will have the league wrapped up and proclaimed themselves Masters of the Football Universe, just a they did in May 2016.

Problem with Rangers is we will potentially be the last game of the season, trophy day. They’ll want to put on a show then. Certainly won’t be the Celtic game so 50/50 chance it’ll be us. Although Rangers’ fixtures are a bit more complicated, they’ll be due us, Aberdeen, Livi and Celtic at home.

[Northernhibee]

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The same 7% Ross County had of beating Celtic last might 😁

Interestingly only a 1% chance of us finishing second, but it essentially it still puts is in with the smallest of shots as no hopers come up as less than 1%.

Makes it look like we need to keep the heid in the next few weeks and keep it steady.

[hibbysam]

Split could end up a mess.

Our fixtures work out fine, as does Aberdeen and St Mirren’s, Celtic would be due an extra home game and Livingston one less home game, so I’d imagine that game would be switched. That would mean everyone bar Rangers would have 19 home and 19 away.

That leaves the rangers anomaly. They are due 3 home and 2 away, but are due to have 4 of the sides visit them for a second time. If they move one of their home games away, it then throws off someone else’s fixtures. As the title will be wrapped up I’d imagine they’d leave their fixtures as is.

Not even looked to see what would happen if St Johnstone or United replaced st Mirren.

[Magpie]

Saturday 17 April, 2021

Saturday 24 April, 2021

Saturday 1 May, 2021

Wednesday 12 May, 2021

Saturday 15 May, 2021

They are the post split fixture dates for anyone who may have been curious.

[Kaff]

I agree with Silver, when you're 3rd in the league you must look up if there's a chance to take a higher place.
It was mentioned earlier but we missed a chance to be 3pts closer after the Dubai carry on, although a point at Parkhead is always decent we should have been at their throats from the off but I felt we were too passive and let them settle in the game.
I do think JR is just a bit too cautious but it was quite soon after the semi and some poor results so steadying the ship was important and no one can argue with the results since then as a defeat could have really got everyone very agitated.
All I ask is that the team play like we did in the last game vs Aberdeen and if we do then I'll accept gladly whatever position we have. It will at least be 3rd I'm sure of it but let's keep the dream alive of 2nd.
If Rangers build on this season and Celtic can come up with a new Brendan Rodgers then it could be a long time till we have the chance again, we're worried about not being able to sign Jackson Irvine next year, I'd say 2nd place, the extra prize money and glamour games could finance players of his quality or better?

[JimBHibees]

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We ain't finishing second unless Celtic stop playing games. Just keep Aberdeen away from us please.

Agree Aberdeen are the threat as we won't catch Celtic.