Countdown to 3rd place thread

[CB Hibs 68]

Maybe it is because I have supported Hibs for 40 odd years that I ain't taking anything league position wise for granted. Pretty certain we want be worse than fourth but after we play Motherwell next week we have 3 tricky away matches.St J ,Ross C and Livi none of which will be easy. If my memory served me correct the last time we played these teams we got comprehensively humped.All I am saying is let's not get to carried away as there are still plenty of points up for grabs and if I was an Aberdeen fan as ***** as they are I would fancy their chances against Celtic next week.All said I think this Hibs team are well capable of getting third but I am not going to say so until we are there.

[Wakeyhibee]

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To give an idea of the standard the teams in that stage this season were Benfica, Dynamo Kiev, Rapid Vienna, AZ Alkmaar, PAOK, Locomotiva, Besiktas, Plzen and Gent.

Nothing easy there. Personally I'd take third and guaranteed European football until December.

Finishing 2nd is £700k extra up front going off 19/20 prize money for league and CL play off than for 3rd place. That would rise with 2 other qualifiers guaranteed.

3 chances at winning a double header to get ECL group stage.

[davhibby]

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So do we want a Celtic win next week to help us finish 3rd but have almost no chance of 2nd or an Aberdeen win to help us get a chance of finishing 2nd but risk dropping down to 4th?

Celtic win every day of the week for me.

I'm already quite excited about seeing us playing in the group stages of Europe even if it is in the Europa Conference League. To be honest I'm more excited about that than the prospect of playing a bunch of qualifiers even if one of those rounds is in the Champions League.

Although it would be very satisfying to finish above Celtic.

I just can't see any way that we pick up 13 more points than Celtic over the last 9 games of the season.

As long as we win a draw at Celtic would be a decent result for us.

I think if we finished 2nd we’d have a good chance of making the groups of a tournament. Wouldn’t be easy games but as we’d be playing teams with higher coefficients we’d at least be seeded for the Conference League Playoff if we ended up there. On the other side of the coin, if we caused an upset in the first tie in the CL we’d get a glamour tie and be guaranteed the Europa League groups.

I do think we’re just a bit too far back to catch them for second now though. If we’d won the game at home to Celtic we’d be 3 points closer to them and we might have had a decent chance

[seanshow]

Temporary doom monger enters the room....
If you approached a bookmaker and asked for the odds on Hibs finishing 2nd ( - 12 pts to celtic), or finishing 6th ( + 17 pts to St midden) which odds would be higher?

[houstonhibbee]

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Temporary doom monger enters the room....
If you approached a bookmaker and asked for the odds on Hibs finishing 2nd ( - 12 pts to celtic), or finishing 6th ( + 17 pts to St midden) which odds would be higher?

Yeah and they also made us favorites to win the league cup.......................

[Juniper Greens]

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Would be highly likely but worth it for me. We’d still get minimum of 6 games in Europe, increased league prize money, probably a decent whack of European prize money too.

Games would be as follows:
Champions league tie vs runner up from Holland, Turkey, Austria, Denmark or Czech.
If we lost, Europa league tie against either of the other two losers from above, or the Czech cup winner.
If we lost, conference league tie against the other losing team from above, any of the winners from the previous round (lots of smaller nations) or 4th from Portugal, 5th from France, or 6th in any the top 4 leagues.

Now would imagine dropping down like that we would be seeded come the final game but I’ve no idea how that all works at this stage.

Thats not how the seeding works I'm afraid. I think we would likely be unseeded for all of those ties

[green day]

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Maybe it is because I have supported Hibs for 40 odd years that I ain't taking anything league position wise for granted. Pretty certain we want be worse than fourth but after we play Motherwell next week we have 3 tricky away matches.St J ,Ross C and Livi none of which will be easy. If my memory served me correct the last time we played these teams we got comprehensively humped.All I am saying is let's not get to carried away as there are still plenty of points up for grabs and if I was an Aberdeen fan as ***** as they are I would fancy their chances against Celtic next week.All said I think this Hibs team are well capable of getting third but I am not going to say so until we are there.

Thats true, it was our worst period of the season - but we look like we have turned the corner, and are in great form -


​

[Big_Franck]

The link below explains the UEFA Conference League and which teams might be in it. I didn't know the Europa League was shrinking from 48 teams to 32 teams so we're still likely to see some decent sides in the Conference League.

Also, according to the guy in the video below teams from the biggest European leagues will also join the Conference League and this is likely to be sides finishing 6th in the strongest leagues. So at the moment that would Dortmund, Villarreal, Juventus and Liverpool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsXoFateukw

[hibbysam]

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Thats not how the seeding works I'm afraid. I think we would likely be unseeded for all of those ties

That all depends on when the draws are, if the final draw is before we play our second tie then in the draw we’d take the team we are playing’s seeding for the purposes of the draw.

[Wakeyhibee]

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The link below explains the UEFA Conference League and which teams might be in it. I didn't know the Europa League was shrinking from 48 teams to 32 teams so we're still likely to see some decent sides in the Conference League.

Also, according to the guy in the video below teams from the biggest European leagues will also join the Conference League and this is likely to be sides finishing 6th in the strongest leagues. So at the moment that would Dortmund, Villarreal, Juventus and Liverpool.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsXoFateukw

I think its 43 teams will end up in the ECL from the EL and CL at some stage. That's on top of the teams you mention that qualify directly.

[JimBHibees]

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Maybe it is because I have supported Hibs for 40 odd years that I ain't taking anything league position wise for granted. Pretty certain we want be worse than fourth but after we play Motherwell next week we have 3 tricky away matches.St J ,Ross C and Livi none of which will be easy. If my memory served me correct the last time we played these teams we got comprehensively humped.All I am saying is let's not get to carried away as there are still plenty of points up for grabs and if I was an Aberdeen fan as ***** as they are I would fancy their chances against Celtic next week.All said I think this Hibs team are well capable of getting third but I am not going to say so until we are there.

True they all will be very tough away games in saying that our away form has been sensational. Still a long way to go in the season however we are in a good position however anything can happen.

[hibbysam]

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True they all will be very tough away games in saying that our away form has been sensational. Still a long way to go in the season however we are in a good position however anything can happen.

The two reasons I’m sceptical about this run of games are due to how good our away form has been, if we win those 3 it would be an exceptional away season, and secondly I don’t think we’ve ever gone 8 games winning in a row in the top flight, or haven’t for a long long time.

We would also be on course to smash our top flight record points.

[blackpoolhibs]

I hope we dont get too close to celtic, as one defeat and the manager will be slaughtered for bottling our best chance of 2nd place since Lennon changed the team when he didnt need to, and that caused us to lose at tynecastle.

[Keith_M]

Have we actually guaranteed a top five finish yet?

[heid the baw]

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Maybe it is because I have supported Hibs for 40 odd years that I ain't taking anything league position wise for granted. Pretty certain we want be worse than fourth but after we play Motherwell next week we have 3 tricky away matches.St J ,Ross C and Livi none of which will be easy. If my memory served me correct the last time we played these teams we got comprehensively humped.All I am saying is let's not get to carried away as there are still plenty of points up for grabs and if I was an Aberdeen fan as ***** as they are I would fancy their chances against Celtic next week.All said I think this Hibs team are well capable of getting third but I am not going to say so until we are there.

I agree with this, it just takes one poor result and the gain against Aberdeen vanishes.
I might stick a tenner on Kamberi to score midweek too. Celtic are woeful and if Aberdeen come away with a win in that one, it will boost their confidence to kick on.
Hibs are in great form, but until we get our noses further in front, I won't be counting down to 3rd

[green day]

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Have we actually guaranteed a top five finish yet?

I dont think so. Aberdeen just secured their top 6 status on Saturday, and are just 4 points behind us.

Technically we are not in the title race any more after Rangers win v Arabs.

eta - sorry, thought you said top 4.

Even top 5 is not nailed tho, Livi are 12 behind, with 27 to play for.

[mim]

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Thats true, it was our worst period of the season - but we look like we have turned the corner, and are in great form -


​

A word of caution.
The above table only highlights that in our last 6 games we have beaten the 5 sides at the bottom of the form table.
Our next run of fixtures is against the sides sitting 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th on current form.

[Keith_M]

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I dont think so. Aberdeen just secured their top 6 status on Saturday, and are just 4 points behind us.

Technically we are not in the title race any more after Rangers win v Arabs.

eta - sorry, thought you said top 4.

Even top 5 is not nailed tho, Livi are 12 behind, with 27 to play for.

Thanks.

So we're actually still on the countdown to fifth.

[green day]

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A word of caution.
The above table only highlights that in our last 6 games we have beaten the 5 sides at the bottom of the form table.
Our next run of fixtures is against the sides sitting 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th on current form.

OK, well here is a table that shows how we have done season to date against everyone....................

[jonny]

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I dont think so. Aberdeen just secured their top 6 status on Saturday, and are just 4 points behind us.

Technically we are not in the title race any more after Rangers win v Arabs.

eta - sorry, thought you said top 4.

Even top 5 is not nailed tho, Livi are 12 behind, with 27 to play for.

To be 5th we only need to finish above the team that's 6th. At the moment that's St Mirren, not Livi. Still not there yet though as St Mirren are 17 behind.

[Wakeyhibee]

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Thanks.

So we're actually still on the countdown to fifth.

Yup still need 11 points or 10 with GD to ensure 5th. When that's done I'll start looking at 4th. ;-)

[PatHead]

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Yup still need 11 points or 10 with GD to ensure 5th. When that's done I'll start looking at 4th. ;-)

That would surely rely on other teams below us winning all their games which is unlikely.

Life is really crap just now. Come on,let us dream just now.😁 Please.

[Keith_M]

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That would surely rely on other teams below us winning all their games which is unlikely.

Life is really crap just now. Come on,let us dream just now.😁 Please.

No.

Now go and tidy your room or you're grounded!!

[Speedy]

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So do we want a Celtic win next week to help us finish 3rd but have almost no chance of 2nd or an Aberdeen win to help us get a chance of finishing 2nd but risk dropping down to 4th?

Celtic win every day of the week for me.

I'm already quite excited about seeing us playing in the group stages of Europe even if it is in the Europa Conference League. To be honest I'm more excited about that than the prospect of playing a bunch of qualifiers even if one of those rounds is in the Champions League.

Although it would be very satisfying to finish above Celtic.

I just can't see any way that we pick up 13 more points than Celtic over the last 9 games of the season.

Draw

[PatHead]

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No.

Now go and tidy your room or you're grounded!!

It's not fair. I hate you.

[04Sauzee]

Last few season PPG to finish 3rd.

19/20 1.53 only 30 games played
18/19 1.76 PPG at split 1.75
17/18 1.84 PPG at split 1.88
16/17 1.76 PPG at split 1.76
15/16 1.71 PPG at split 1.82
14/15 1.52 PPG at split 1.75

We are currently tracking 1.79 points per game and Aberdeen 1.6 points oer game.

Not sure what the above tells us 😅

[nonshinyfinish]

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Last few season PPG to finish 3rd.

19/20 1.53 only 30 games played
18/19 1.76 PPG at split 1.75
17/18 1.84 PPG at split 1.88
16/17 1.76 PPG at split 1.76
15/16 1.71 PPG at split 1.82
14/15 1.52 PPG at split 1.75

We are currently tracking 1.79 points per game and Aberdeen 1.6 points oer game.

Not sure what the above tells us 😅

Is that the PPG that the team in third actually achieved, or the PPG that they would have needed to give them one point more than the team in fourth?

[JimBHibees]

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I hope we dont get too close to celtic, as one defeat and the manager will be slaughtered for bottling our best chance of 2nd place since Lennon changed the team when he didnt need to, and that caused us to lose at tynecastle.

Spot on.

[04Sauzee]

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Is that the PPG that the team in third actually achieved, or the PPG that they would have needed to give them one point more than the team in fourth?

It's what they achieved to finish 3rd.
Only season 17/18 didn the team that was 3rd at the split not finish 3rd at the end of the seson. Rangers were 3rd at the split e points behind Aberdeen but they swapped places come the ens of the season.

[Oscar T Grouch]

As an aside to the main discussion here. The prize money for this years league for 3rd is £2,062,500, the Championship, for the winner is £562,500 meaning we should get in prize money alone £1.5mil more than our city rivals (at current standing).