Countdown to 3rd place thread

[BlackSheep]

These are the remaining fixtures if i am correct....

Hibs'

St Johnstone (A)
Ross County (A)
Livi (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd/St Johnstone)

Aberdeen's


Hamilton (H)
Dundee Utd (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Hibs
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd/St Johnstone)

What's everyone's thoughts on both teams potential results?

[ancient hibee]

Think it depends on the order of the post split games.

[Sir David Gray]

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These are the remaining fixtures if i am correct....

Hibs'

St Johnstone (A)
Ross County (A)
Livi (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

Aberdeen's


Hamilton (H)
Dundee Utd (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Hibs
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

What's everyone's thoughts on both teams potential results?

I think we'll both get about 10 points.

[scoopyboy]

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These are the remaining fixtures if i am correct....

Hibs'

St Johnstone (A)
Ross County (A)
Livi (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

Aberdeen's


Hamilton (H)
Dundee Utd (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Hibs
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

What's everyone's thoughts on both teams potential results?

St.Johnstone have a chance as well, two points behind Dundee Utd with a game in hand

[MWHIBBIES]

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Is this the same algorithm that predicted Celtc had a 90% chance of 10IAR?

I’m getting tired of the growing mathematical analysis of football. It’s a team game that is reliant on moments of individual brilliance. You can stick xG and the like imo.

At sunday league level maybe. At professional level that stuff is vitally important and there wont be a decent side in any league not using it. Teams sign playes based on analysis like that.

[Magpie]

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These are the remaining fixtures if i am correct....

Hibs'

St Johnstone (A)
Ross County (A)
Livi (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Aberdeen
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

Aberdeen's


Hamilton (H)
Dundee Utd (A)
Rangers
Celtic
Hibs
Livi
St Mirren (Outside chance Dundee Utd)

What's everyone's thoughts on both teams potential results?

As long as we get at least a draw against Aberdeen I’m confident we will secure enough points in the other games to finish 3rd.

[cabbageandribs1875]

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Insurance policy perhaps.

They are coming in, they were 7/2 at the weekend.

with approx 30 years of backing against hibs it always has been an insurance policy, though i've quite often came a cropper betting ON us :(

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/premiership/

This gives Aberdeen an 11% chance of finishing third. Slightly up from last week (IIRC it was about five or six per cent) but still unlikely.

We have an 86% chance of finishing third.

be interesting to see what that percentage is after saturday IF it's down to just one point

hopefully St Mirren keep St Johnstone at bay and saturday will be our last league fixture against them this season

[BlackSheep]

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St.Johnstone have a chance as well, two points behind Dundee Utd with a game in hand

Thanks, I missed that... OP updated.

[BlackSheep]

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Is this the same algorithm that predicted Celtc had a 90% chance of 10IAR?

I’m getting tired of the growing mathematical analysis of football. It’s a team game that is reliant on moments of individual brilliance. You can stick xG and the like imo.

Have you ever seen the movie, Moneyball?

Based on the true story of the Oakland Athletics rise from loss after loss to almost winning it all... their success was down to playing the game based on numbers and stats.

Proof that if used correctly they’re incredibly important.

In their simplest form they can be the basis for tactical decisions.

[Diclonius]

It's all going to come down to the game at Pittodrie, isn't it?

[Magpie]

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It's all going to come down to the game at Pittodrie, isn't it?

They will try and save the game for later in the split too IMO in hope that it will attract more viewers.

[Sir David Gray]

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It's all going to come down to the game at Pittodrie, isn't it?

I really hope we don't have to go up there needing a point to finish 3rd.

[hibbysam]

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It's all going to come down to the game at Pittodrie, isn't it?

I don’t think it will. I think we’ll still be clear of them and they will have to win it just to stay in touch with us.

[Magpie]

Looks likely that St Mirren will be taking 6th then.

[Wakeyhibee]

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They will try and save the game for later in the split too IMO in hope that it will attract more viewers.

The last OF game will be of no consequence but will still be a draw for viewers. Can't see it being close to the one coming up either. I have a feeling our crunch tie will land round 36 with us and them getting one of the OF and 5th or 6th each before that game. Leave it too late and it could be done and dusted.

[PatHead]

How does the Livingston result impact on us guaranteeing 4th now?

[Wakeyhibee]

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How does the Livingston result impact on us guaranteeing 4th now?

Can only be good but it's too early to tell, still not guaranteed 5th yet.

[Sir David Gray]

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How does the Livingston result impact on us guaranteeing 4th now?

We need 13 points from our last 8 matches to finish ahead of Livingston assuming they win all of their remaining fixtures.

In reality they're not catching us, they're not picking up 13 more points than us over their last 8 matches.

[hibbysam]

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We need 13 points from our last 8 matches to finish ahead of Livingston assuming they win all of their remaining fixtures.

In reality they're not catching us, they're not picking up 13 more points than us over their last 8 matches.

I’d wager a bet they won’t pick up 13 points at all, never mind more than us.

[PatHead]

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We need 13 points from our last 8 matches to finish ahead of Livingston assuming they win all of their remaining fixtures.

In reality they're not catching us, they're not picking up 13 more points than us over their last 8 matches.

Thanks for the update. So at least 4th then.

[wallpaperman]

Despite our dire last two games, the magic number of points needed drop by 2 from 18 to a maximum of 16 points.

And hopefully those of us that pointed out before today that Aberdeen had scored 1 goal in 8 games will allow the worriers to rest slightly easier now that it is 1 goal in 9 games.

[Sir David Gray]

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Despite our dire last two games, the magic number of points needed drop by 2 from 18 to a maximum of 16 points.

And hopefully those of us that pointed out before today that Aberdeen had scored 1 goal in 8 games will rest slightly easier now that it is 1 goal in 9 games.

Three wins will do it I reckon.

[HibeeHibernian4]

Will be a lot more confident if we can beat Ross County next week but there's nothing to suggest we will off the back of the last two games.

[B.H.F.C]

Aberdeen dropping points today is a huge bonus. We’ve got our game in hand next week, got to make the most of that and it won’t be far away from being done because they aren’t going to win many of their last six.

[skyehibee]

Have to beat Ross county next week, massive game.

[GreenCastle]

Ross County are 5th in form table.

Hibs 4th..

After the last game at ER surely we can't let that happen again...saying that I thought after the 3-0 semi loss to Saints we would come out firing today but did the opposite.

Need 2 wins in the next 2 games to give us a chance of 3rd.

There is no chance this team will go away to Aberdeen and get a win - last time was May 2012 we won there!!

[mayo hibee]

I thought we'd need three more wins but that was based on Aberdeen at least being capable of beating Hamilton at home.

After today two more wins and avoiding defeat in the game against Aberdeen will be more than enough. That would leave them needing at least three wins and it's very hard to see where they're going to pull those from right now.

[Stevie Reid]

Is that 7 games out of 8 that Aberdeen haven’t scored, and one goal in all that time?

[B.H.F.C]

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Ross County are 5th in form table.

Hibs 4th..

After the last game at ER surely we can't let that happen again...saying that I thought after the 3-0 semi loss to Saints we would come out firing today but did the opposite.

Need 2 wins in the next 2 games to give us a chance of 3rd.

There is no chance this team will go away to Aberdeen and get a win - last time was May 2012 we won there!!

Even if we lose twice before the split, we’d still absolutely have a chance of third.

[Iggy Pope]

The past couple of games have me wondering where any sort of Hibs win is coming from. Three wins will do it, two wins and avoid defeat at Aberdeen, win the game in hand etc., all looks very fanciful indeed based on the past two performances.