Countdown to 3rd place thread

**wallpaperman** · 13-02-2021 05:26 PM

While I am by no means taking anything for granted it is undeniable that we are firmly in the driving seat. So, with each of the three challengers having a nice round 10 games left, I thought it a good time for a countdown thread.

30 points up for grabs. Instead of looking at the maximum each team can achieve, it’s easier just to countdown the way. I’m not taking our better goal difference into account either at this stage.

Aberdeen: 4 points behind us, so we need a maximum of 27 points assuming they win every game. Any points gained by Hibs or dropped by Aberdeen will of course reduce this total.

Livingston: 10 points behind us, so we need a maximum of 21 points assuming they win every game to better Livi (this also assumes that Aberdeen don’t go on a crazy winning streak). Same criteria that any points gained by Hibs or dropped by them reduces the total.

Can we do it?

***neil7908*** · 13-02-2021 05:30 PM

I was sceptical after the St Johnstone game but looking at the next 5 games it's ours to lose. We've a great shot at achieving something remarkable this year.

**S4uzee** · 13-02-2021 10:11 PM

Originally Posted by neil7908

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I was sceptical after the St Johnstone game but looking at the next 5 games it's ours to lose. We've a great shot at achieving something remarkable this year.

Would it be remarkable? I’d rather we had won the league cup tbh

***AFKA5814_Hibs*** · 13-02-2021 10:34 PM

Originally Posted by S4uzee

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Would it be remarkable? I’d rather we had won the league cup tbh

Normally I'd agree that winning a cup takes president over a European spot but giving that we wouldn't be there to see the cup won but we MIGHT be there to experience games home and away in Europe then I think 3rd place and Europe could actually be better than winning the League Cup.

**B.H.F.C** · 13-02-2021 10:37 PM

Originally Posted by AFKA5814_Hibs

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Normally I'd agree that winning a cup takes president over a European spot but giving that we wouldn't be there to see the cup won but we MIGHT be there to experience games home and away in Europe then I think 3rd place and Europe could actually be better than winning the League Cup.

Actually a valid point this.

Hibs don’t win cups very often so the semi finals hurt. But Hibs winning a cup and nobody being there to see it and there being no real celebration is a strange thought.

**Magpie** · 13-02-2021 10:38 PM

Originally Posted by AFKA5814_Hibs

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Normally I'd agree that winning a cup takes president over a European spot but giving that we wouldn't be there to see the cup won but we MIGHT be there to experience games home and away in Europe then I think 3rd place and Europe could actually be better than winning the League Cup.

Yeah that’s where I’m at now too tbh. If it was just the usual three or four qualifiers we had to play to even have a chance of the group stages I would prefer a cup absolutely. Now that we actually have a chance of watching Hibs play against clubs over Europe for several months with the financial benefit which comes with that I would prefer a 3rd place finish this season.

***Fergus52*** · 13-02-2021 11:24 PM

Originally Posted by S4uzee

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Would it be remarkable? I’d rather we had won the league cup tbh

Would be our best league finish since 2005 and get us group stage European football for the first time ever (maybe?).

In my eyes that's a lot better than a league cup, and also a lot more impressive considering we would have won it without playing Celtic rangers hearts or Aberdeen.

***bingo70*** · 13-02-2021 05:30 PM

Aberdeen got some horrible fixtures before the split.

Celtic away during the week, I think they’ll drop points to Killie next weekend and got Celtic away again after that.

They’ve then got Hamilton at home where you’d expect them to win and Dundee Utd at tannadice which won’t be easy for them now Utd have found a bit form again..

I think Livingston are too far behind at this stage and I think we will extend our gap over Aberdeen in the next couple of weeks.

**wallpaperman** · 13-02-2021 05:34 PM

Originally Posted by bingo70

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Aberdeen got some horrible fixtures before the split.

Celtic away during the week, I think they’ll drop points to Killie next weekend and got Celtic away again after that.

They’ve then got Hamilton at home where you’d expect them to win and Dundee Utd at tannadice which won’t be easy for them now Utd have found a bit form again..

I think Livingston are too far behind at this stage and I think we will extend our gap over Aberdeen in the next couple of weeks.

Yes, someone on another thread pointed out that Aberdeen have 40% of their fixtures left against the old firm. I never thought of it in percentage terms. Even though 3 of the 4 are against Celtic, that is tough going.

***bingo70*** · 13-02-2021 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by wallpaperman

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Yes, someone on another thread pointed out that Aberdeen have 40% of their fixtures left against the old firm. I never thought of it in percentage terms. Even though 3 of the 4 are against Celtic, that is tough going.

I think it’s entirely feasible that if we lost all our remaining games up to the split (we won’t), Aberdeen still wouldn’t over take us.

If they can keep the gap at 4 points between us and them I think that would be a good result for them.

**MWHIBBIES** · 13-02-2021 05:42 PM

I don't think people understand how massive 3rd would be. Hibs in the groupstages of Europe would be absolutely amazing. I think we're gonna do it and we're gonna benefit massively from it next season.

**Gmack7** · 13-02-2021 07:16 PM

Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

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I don't think people understand how massive 3rd would be. Hibs in the groupstages of Europe would be absolutely amazing. I think we're gonna do it and we're gonna benefit massively from it next season.

European football up to xmas would be something else, we might have to wait a long time to get the opportunity again so lets kick on increase the gap so it doesnt go to the wire

**FilipinoHibs** · 14-02-2021 01:02 AM

Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

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I don't think people understand how massive 3rd would be. Hibs in the groupstages of Europe would be absolutely amazing. I think we're gonna do it and we're gonna benefit massively from it next season.

Wow did not realize that. That is massive.

**~~Robbo6-2~~** · 14-02-2021 04:58 AM

Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

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I don't think people understand how massive 3rd would be. Hibs in the groupstages of Europe would be absolutely amazing. I think we're gonna do it and we're gonna benefit massively from it next season.

Do we not need to still get into a play off first?
Sure that will be against a tough side so maybe jumping ahead with that shout

**wallpaperman** · 21-02-2021 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES

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I don't think people understand how massive 3rd would be. Hibs in the groupstages of Europe would be absolutely amazing. I think we're gonna do it and we're gonna benefit massively from it next season.

Could I just check if other people’s understanding is the same as mine?

Just been reading various details about the UEFA Conference League format, and it looks to me that the if we finish 3rd (and just say that the Scottish Cup is not completed or is won by Rangers/Celtic) then this does still not guarantee us a group place in the new UEFA Conference League group stages. This contradicts what a lot of people have been saying that we are guaranteed a place.

From what I have read, we would enter the UEFA Europa League at the 3rd qualifying round, but as far as I can see you then have to negotiate the ‘Play off’ round. And it’s the 10 losers of the Play off round that go straight into the UEFA Conference League, not the losers of the 3rd qualifying round.

Or am I reading this wrong?

**Wakeyhibee** · 13-02-2021 06:24 PM

Originally Posted by bingo70

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Aberdeen got some horrible fixtures before the split.

Celtic away during the week, I think they’ll drop points to Killie next weekend and got Celtic away again after that.

They’ve then got Hamilton at home where you’d expect them to win and Dundee Utd at tannadice which won’t be easy for them now Utd have found a bit form again..

I think Livingston are too far behind at this stage and I think we will extend our gap over Aberdeen in the next couple of weeks.

Celtic will throw the second game to Aberdeen so Rangers dont win the title on OF derby day

**~~Peevemor~~** · 13-02-2021 05:46 PM

I hate these threads.

***bingo70*** · 13-02-2021 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by Peevemor

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I hate these threads.

Don’t be so negative, try to think positively for once.

😉

**~~Peevemor~~** · 13-02-2021 06:55 PM

Originally Posted by bingo70

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Don’t be so negative, try to think positively for once.

OK. I positively hate these threads.

**Greenbeard** · 14-02-2021 09:38 AM

Last three 3rd place finishes:
04-05 average points per game 1.60
00-01 average points per game 1.73
94-95 average points per game 1.47

7 points from every 4 games (average 1.75) is usually enough to secure 3rd. We are bang on that at the moment. Hopefully get ahead of that average before the split, leaving a bit of leeway for a slightly lower average after the split.

Stats looking good but still a long way to go.

***erin go bragh*** · 13-02-2021 07:15 PM

Originally Posted by Peevemor

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I hate these threads.

Kinda get ,where your coming from . Can remember a how many points will we get ( next 6 ) thread at Xmas time ( think we got 1 )
One game at a time 🤞

***Paul1642*** · 13-02-2021 05:58 PM

If us and Aberdeen take equal points from the old firm (they have 2 extra old firm games) I make it 14 points from the remainder for us to get 3rd. That’s assuming Aberdeen take max points from there other 6 games which includes us and Livi.

3rd is ours unless mess it up big time.

**~~hibbyfraelibby~~** · 13-02-2021 06:09 PM

Get to 15 points ahead going into the split then I'll start believing. Been there, seen it, worn the egg...

***Keith_M*** · 13-02-2021 06:18 PM

Livi's good form seem to have taken a bit of a downturn.

Thanks goodness :-)

**~~calumhibee1~~** · 13-02-2021 06:28 PM

Is it completely impossible for us to have guaranteed 3rd before the split?

If we can get 10 ahead then we could lose every single game and Aberdeen would need to beat one of the OF whilst also winning against Livi, us and the last top 6 team.

***Eyrie*** · 13-02-2021 06:31 PM

Originally Posted by calumhibee1

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Is it completely impossible for us to have guaranteed 3rd before the split?

If we can get 10 ahead then we could lose every single game and Aberdeen would need to beat one of the OF whilst also winning against Livi, us and the last top 6 team.

We're four clear at present, so there is the theoretical possibility that if we get 12 points more than Aberdeen from the five pre-split fixtures that we'd have third sewn up.

For context, there's also a theoretical possibility that fans will be allowed back to watch those games.

**SJNB Hibby** · 13-02-2021 06:34 PM

Originally Posted by calumhibee1

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Is it completely impossible for us to have guaranteed 3rd before the split?

If we can get 10 ahead then we could lose every single game and Aberdeen would need to beat one of the OF whilst also winning against Livi, us and the last top 6 team.

If we win all five, Aberdeen need 4 points just to make it mathematically possible to catch us
I would like to see them get 4tb just to have stronger Scottish presence in Europe and help with the old, dare I say it, coefficient

***oneone73*** · 13-02-2021 06:33 PM

If we can win our next two, against Accies and Well at home, I think we'll be seven points ahead with a game in hand. And that's assuming the Sheep beat Killie (not expecting them to get anything from two games at Darkheid).