A fairer way to decide the leagues?

[Caversham Green]

Several clubs, including Hibs, can rightly feel aggrieved by the way the season has or will be decided. Hibs have more points in the bag than St Johnstone and have one win, one draw and no defeats in matches against them but find themselves below them in the league because St Johnstone had one game in hand. That game was at Ibrox and Saints were unlikely to win it so if it had been played Hibs would have been awarded sixth place instead of seventh. additionally, each club had different teams to play in the now-abandoned end of the season so the PPG approach is intrinsically unfair. I think a fairer approach would have been to apply an average ppg on a head to head basis for the games that still have to be played. For example, Hibs record against Aberdeen was 1W 1D 1L - four points from three games - so Hibs would have got 1.33 points for the remaining game. This broadly ties in with the head to head approach used in World Cup group games.

I've done a very quick analysis of games to be played on this basis, firstly applying it to Partick Thistle as they seemed to be the hardest hit by the method used. This showed that Thistle would have comfortably avoided the drop at the expense of Queen of the South. I then went on to apply it to the Premiership and this shows that Hibs would have made the top six by a couple of points. That would then have led to the following tables:

Top six
Celtic 100.33 points
Sevco 82.17
Aberdeen 58.5
Motherwell 54.66
Livingston 45.83
Hibs 45.33

Bottom six
St Johnstone 44.33
St Mirren 44.17
Kilmarnock 43.5
Ross County 37.33
Hamilton 34.17
Hearts 27.83

Of course this doesn't take account of home advantage or the fact that Hibs were improving under Jack Ross while Hearts were deteriorating under their new manager, but it shows that the clubs that have a genuine grievance were Aberdeen, Hibs and St Mirren, while Hearts got exactly what they deserved.

[Waxy]

Good call. The SPFL would do well to look at that system.

[The Spaceman]

English League Two have just decided their league but have applied weightings to home and away matches separately to help be fair and remove bias. St Johnstone have played 16 home games to our 15. This would be enough to keep us 6th?!

[Scouse Hibee]

Surely the pools panel could decide it 😁

[Ozyhibby]

It’s done now. I’m happy enough with how it worked out.
Time to worry about getting going again.


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[hibee316]

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Several clubs, including Hibs, can rightly feel aggrieved by the way the season has or will be decided. Hibs have more points in the bag than St Johnstone and have one win, one draw and no defeats in matches against them but find themselves below them in the league because St Johnstone had one game in hand. That game was at Ibrox and Saints were unlikely to win it so if it had been played Hibs would have been awarded sixth place instead of seventh. additionally, each club had different teams to play in the now-abandoned end of the season so the PPG approach is intrinsically unfair. I think a fairer approach would have been to apply an average ppg on a head to head basis for the games that still have to be played. For example, Hibs record against Aberdeen was 1W 1D 1L - four points from three games - so Hibs would have got 1.33 points for the remaining game. This broadly ties in with the head to head approach used in World Cup group games.

I've done a very quick analysis of games to be played on this basis, firstly applying it to Partick Thistle as they seemed to be the hardest hit by the method used. This showed that Thistle would have comfortably avoided the drop at the expense of Queen of the South. I then went on to apply it to the Premiership and this shows that Hibs would have made the top six by a couple of points. That would then have led to the following tables:

Top six
Celtic 100.33 points
Sevco 82.17
Aberdeen 58.5
Motherwell 54.66
Livingston 45.83
Hibs 45.33

Bottom six
St Johnstone 44.33
St Mirren 44.17
Kilmarnock 43.5
Ross County 37.33
Hamilton 34.17
Hearts 27.83

Of course this doesn't take account of home advantage or the fact that Hibs were improving under Jack Ross while Hearts were deteriorating under their new manager, but it shows that the clubs that have a genuine grievance were Aberdeen, Hibs and St Mirren, while Hearts got exactly what they deserved.

Nah, it's been decided now. There was always going to be people unhappy.

If we argued to change this, then you can't really get at Hearts going on about all the games not being completed.

It is by no means perfect, but let's move on.

[Bostonhibby]

It seems fairer for sure and because of how external pressures led to the league ending as it did it's my preferred option.

Weightings for current form and to reflect the home records seem difficult to agree with hindsight.

They might have a chance of working if some methodology could be set in advance and there was a clear understanding about it being binding, so no toys out the pram if clubs don't get what they want.

By the way, how would the table look if you got the numbers and made adjustments for clubs who say they had allocated £X spefically to avoid relegation and had been denied that lofty ambition?

I'm no expert but it might be that just a combination of inferior goal difference and a 4 point deficit is enough?

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[jacomo]

Interesting about Thistle.

Why didn’t they make more noise about applying this methodology to their league?

[Caversham Green]

I'm not suggesting the SPFL should change their minds now - it was really just a theoretical exercise to ask whether this or something like it is the way things should have been done. More a point for discussion rather than a call for change.

[Bishop Hibee]

More proof Hearts will be relegated on merit.

[Bostonhibby]

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I'm not suggesting the SPFL should change their minds now - it was really just a theoretical exercise to ask whether this or something like it is the way things should have been done. More a point for discussion rather that a call for change.

understood, and got my brain working and my attention away from TV for a but

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[ancient hibee]

I am willing to provide the SPFL with a large hat containing 12 slips of paper containing the words “Heart of Midlothian F.C.”.Mr Doncaster will then be blindfolded and draw out a random slip.Couldn’t be fairer.

[lord bunberry]

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I am willing to provide the SPFL with a large hat containing 12 slips of paper containing the words “Heart of Midlothian F.C.”.Mr Doncaster will then be blindfolded and draw out a random slip.Couldn’t be fairer.

I’d put 13 in, the last one would be a golden ticket to the lowland league.

[Jim44]

Hearts are clinging to the hope that Coronavirus will put a nail in the coffins of a few clubs, enforcing some form of reconstruction where they will get a reprieve. I’ve read a few posts over there where they’ve said that, while they would not wish the disease on anyone, they hoped it would continue for a long time. What a perverse, contradictory and anti-society attitude.

[jacomo]

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More proof Hearts will be relegated on merit.

Anyway you slice it, Hearts deserve to go down.

[Eyrie]

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I am willing to provide the SPFL with a large hat containing 12 slips of paper containing the words “Heart of Midlothian F.C.”.Mr Doncaster will then be blindfolded and draw out a random slip.Couldn’t be fairer.

It could be.

There is after all a mathematical chance that Hearts may have avoided relegation, so only eleven slips should have their name. The twelfth should read "Rangers FC" so that we can find out just how serious Sevco are about being that particular club.

And since Sky will insist on four Old Firm games we'd then get to relegate the other arse cheek at the same time. In fact, let's make all twelve slips "Rangers FC" and just keep Hearts up