So which teams are most likely for relegation to the Championship?

[ABZHFC]

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I’ve no idea how you can see that but fair enough that’s your viewpoint. Even three wins, making it four wins this season when it comes to the winter break will be nowhere near good enough for top six or to be close even.

3/4 weren't bad

[Centre Hawf]

I still have a bad feeling that they're going to sneak out of trouble in time, but then again people would have said the same about us when we went down.

[vercol36]

They've got Donis Avadgy now. He's scored 5 million goals in his career, won the Champions League single-handedly and sh*gged Ronaldo's missus. I think they're going to be fine.

[theonlywayisup]

Now it's looking like pick any one (or two) from four teams.

Hearts next five games are Hamilton (H), St Mirren (A), Hibs (A), Motherwell (H) and Ross County (H).

Easily the easiest run of the bottom three, I think.

St Mirren have to play both of the Old Firm plus St Johnstone and Livingston. Hamilton have to play The Rangers plus Ross County, Killie and Motherwell. Ross County also have to play The Rangers plus Hamilton, Aberdeen and Motherwell.

You could say that playing Hearts is the easiest game that Hamilton, Ross County and St Mirren will have.

[Sir David Gray]

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Now it's looking like pick any one (or two) from four teams.

Hearts next five games are Hamilton (H), St Mirren (A), Hibs (A), Motherwell (H) and Ross County (H).

Easily the easiest run of the bottom three, I think.

St Mirren have to play both of the Old Firm plus St Johnstone and Livingston. Hamilton have to play The Rangers plus Ross County, Killie and Motherwell. Ross County also have to play The Rangers plus Hamilton, Aberdeen and Motherwell.

You could say that playing Hearts is the easiest game that Hamilton, Ross County and St Mirren will have.

The problem Hearts have is that they begin that run bottom of the league and there's no margin for error. Their result at Parkhead has also wiped out any advantage they had over Hamilton in terms of goal difference and it's already a lot worse than St Mirren's.

I'd be surprised if they caught Ross County, 7 points is a lot to make up at this stage of the season. I think bottom spot is between Hearts, Hamilton and St Mirren.

If Hearts lose today then they're gone.

[theonlywayisup]

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The problem Hearts have is that they begin that run bottom of the league and there's no margin for error. Their result at Parkhead has also wiped out any advantage they had over Hamilton in terms of goal difference and it's already a lot worse than St Mirren's.

I'd be surprised if they caught Ross County, 7 points is a lot to make up at this stage of the season. I think bottom spot is between Hearts, Hamilton and St Mirren.

If Hearts lose today then they're gone.

I think all three relegation rivals will be targeting their game against Hearts as their cup final. Win that and the gap will get wider and much harder to close.

Pass the popcorn!!

[Keith_M]

21% voted Hibs

[MWHIBBIES]

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21% voted Hibs

So funny. We were never in any threat. Just had to get going and get a bit of luck.

This place was utterly toxic at the time, as bad as I've seen it.

[theonlywayisup]

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So funny. We were never in any threat. Just had to get going and get a bit of luck.

This place was utterly toxic at the time, as bad as I've seen it.

Maybe, but had we stuck with Heckingbottom I'm not convinced that we would be where we are now. Heckingbottom was clueless as a Hibs manager.

[Sir David Gray]

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Now it's looking like pick any one (or two) from four teams.

Hearts next five games are Hamilton (H), St Mirren (A), Hibs (A), Motherwell (H) and Ross County (H).

Easily the easiest run of the bottom three, I think.

St Mirren have to play both of the Old Firm plus St Johnstone and Livingston. Hamilton have to play The Rangers plus Ross County, Killie and Motherwell. Ross County also have to play The Rangers plus Hamilton, Aberdeen and Motherwell.

You could say that playing Hearts is the easiest game that Hamilton, Ross County and St Mirren will have.

I've just noticed that you have Hearts playing Ross County in their next 5 games when they don't, their 5th fixture is actually away to Livingston. You have also quoted Hearts' next 5 fixtures but only the next 4 fixtures for every other team so I've had a look at those fixtures and here's the points totals for each team the last time they played that round of fixtures;

Hearts - 4
Hamilton - 8
St Mirren - 4
Ross County - 2

The same amount of points this time around would leave the league table looking like this with just 7 games left;

Hamilton - 27
Ross County - 27
St Mirren - 26
Hearts - 22

Hearts really need a win today and then it does change things somewhat.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

Both Hearts and Hamilton know that three points today is vital. If Hearts win, i can see them staying up, but i don't see them any higher than 10th at the end of the season.

[theonlywayisup]

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I've just noticed that you have Hearts playing Ross County in their next 5 games when they don't, their 5th fixture is actually away to Livingston.

You're right, the 5th game is against Livingston.

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You have also quoted Hearts' next 5 fixtures but only the next 4 fixtures for every other team.

I didn't mention the 5th as I've already mentioned that Hearts play them all earlier in the post.

However, made a James Hunt of it by saying Hearts play Ross County in their 5th game.

[Sir David Gray]

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You're right, the 5th game is against Livingston.



I didn't mention the 5th as I've already mentioned that Hearts play them all earlier in the post.

However, made a James Hunt of it by saying Hearts play Ross County in their 5th game.

Got you!

[Tomsk]

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So funny. We were never in any threat. Just had to get going and get a bit of luck.

This place was utterly toxic at the time, as bad as I've seen it.

The situation was so dire that Hibs sacked a manager who had been in place for less than 10 months. I didn't see any cause for panic but I was in no doubt that Hibs had to act decisively or were going to be in deep smelly stuff. It wasn't just pulling up their socks and waiting for a change of luck that was needed.

[B.H.F.C]

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The situation was so dire that Hibs sacked a manager who had been in place for less than 10 months. I didn't see any cause for panic but I was in no doubt that Hibs had to act decisively or were going to be in deep smelly stuff. It wasn't just pulling up their socks and waiting for a change of luck that was needed.

The only reason I wasn’t overly worried was that I knew it was only matter of time until we’d finally get rid of Heckingbottom.

If we’d kept him we were absolutely in trouble. He wasn’t just unlucky.

[Smartie]

Heckingbottom had to go. He needed to make changes he wasn’t ever going to make.

It turns out his eye for a player wasn’t that bad but he spent the first quarter of this season playing Vela every week with Jackson and Newell on the sidelines and struggled to get service to Doidge.

It was his tactical ineptitude that was his undoing, but he left some decent players behind for Ross to work with.

He could have done with Boyle being fit right enough.

[theonlywayisup]

Huge game between St Mirren and Hertz next Friday. If Hertz were to lose that one they would be six points behind 10th place having played one game more and have a considerably poorer goal difference. They would be seven points behind 9th place again having played a game more.

[HIBERNIAN-0762]

The money laundering cheats 👍

[hfc rd]

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Huge game between St Mirren and Hertz next Friday. If Hertz were to lose that one they would be six points behind 10th place having played one game more and have a considerably poorer goal difference. They would be seven points behind 9th place again having played a game more.

They need a win on Friday against St Mirren. Anything less than 3 points is just pushing them even further towards the 2nd tier next season

[Sir David Gray]

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Huge game between St Mirren and Hertz next Friday. If Hertz were to lose that one they would be six points behind 10th place having played one game more and have a considerably poorer goal difference. They would be seven points behind 9th place again having played a game more.

I said Hearts would be down if they got any less than 4 points from the games against Hamilton and St Mirren so if they lose to St Mirren then it's curtains.

[Since90+2]

Hearts are genuinely favourites to go gown. They are not bottom of the league by chance in mid February - it's because they are pish and deserve to be there.

[Crab apple]

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Heckingbottom had to go. He needed to make changes he wasn’t ever going to make.

It turns out his eye got a player wasn’t that bad but he spent the first quarter of this season playing Vela every week with Jackson and Newell on the sidelines and struggled to get service to Doidge.

It was his tactical ineptitude that was his undoing, but he left some decent players behind for Ross to work with.

He could have done with Boyle being fit right enough.

100% correct. Getting rid of PH was one of the best things LD has done this season.

[Crab apple]

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I said Hearts would be down if they got any less than 4 points from the games against Hamilton and St Mirren so if they lose to St Mirren then it's curtains.

I think they'll lose on Friday.

[emerald green]

HMFC deserve to be relegated. They are so s**** it's unbelievable.

For them to be sitting bottom of this awful league, given the financial advantages they have over most other clubs in the league, is ridiculous, but at the same time very pleasing.

[04Sauzee]

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I've just noticed that you have Hearts playing Ross County in their next 5 games when they don't, their 5th fixture is actually away to Livingston. You have also quoted Hearts' next 5 fixtures but only the next 4 fixtures for every other team so I've had a look at those fixtures and here's the points totals for each team the last time they played that round of fixtures;

Hearts - 4
Hamilton - 8
St Mirren - 4
Ross County - 2

The same amount of points this time around would leave the league table looking like this with just 7 games left;

Hamilton - 27
Ross County - 27
St Mirren - 26
Hearts - 22

Hearts really need a win today and then it does change things somewhat.

That makes me feel very warm and fuzzy

[Sir David Gray]

Since the 2009/10 season here's the stats on how the league table has looked after 27 games and since the 13/14 season I've also included how many points and wins the bottom team would have needed to get to the complete safety of 10th place;

09/10

Bottom - Falkirk
Points - 20 (3 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

10/11

Bottom - Hamilton
Points - 14 (8 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

11/12

Bottom - Dunfermline
Points - 19 (goal difference)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

12/13

Bottom - Dundee
Points - 17 (12 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

13/14

Bottom - Hearts*
Points - 6 (18 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
* Hearts had a 15 points deduction that season and actually ended the season picking up more points than Hibs.
10th place - 38 points and 8 wins

14/15

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 18 (1 point adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 41 points and 11 wins

15/16

Bottom - Dundee Utd
Points - 14 (14 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 43 points and 11 wins

16/17

Bottom - Inverness
Points - 22 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 37 points and 10 wins

17/18

Bottom - Ross County
Points - 21 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

18/19

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 14 (4 points adrift)
Finished - 11th (stayed up after winning the relegation play off).
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

19/20

Bottom - Hearts
Points - 19 (1 point adrift)
Finished - ?
10th place - Currently has only played 26 games and has 22 points and 5 wins.

They are in huge trouble and have a big fight on their hands to finish any higher than 11th.

History suggests that they'll require anywhere between 33 and 43 points to get to 10th place and need a minimum of 8 wins. For a team that only has 19 points and 3 wins from their first 27 games, I'm not sure where they're going to find at least 5 wins from in their last 11 games.

[theonlywayisup]

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Since the 2009/10 season here's the stats on how the league table has looked after 27 games and since the 13/14 season I've also included how many points and wins the bottom team would have needed to get to the complete safety of 10th place;

09/10

Bottom - Falkirk
Points - 20 (3 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

10/11

Bottom - Hamilton
Points - 14 (8 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

11/12

Bottom - Dunfermline
Points - 19 (goal difference)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

12/13

Bottom - Dundee
Points - 17 (12 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

13/14

Bottom - Hearts*
Points - 6 (18 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
* Hearts had a 15 points deduction that season and actually ended the season picking up more points than Hibs.
10th place - 38 points and 8 wins

14/15

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 18 (1 point adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 41 points and 11 wins

15/16

Bottom - Dundee Utd
Points - 14 (14 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 43 points and 11 wins

16/17

Bottom - Inverness
Points - 22 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 37 points and 10 wins

17/18

Bottom - Ross County
Points - 21 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

18/19

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 14 (4 points adrift)
Finished - 11th (stayed up after winning the relegation play off).
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

19/20

Bottom - Hearts
Points - 19 (1 point adrift)
Finished - ?
10th place - Currently has only played 26 games and has 22 points and 5 wins.

They are in huge trouble and have a big fight on their hands to finish any higher than 11th.

History suggests that they'll require anywhere between 33 and 43 points to get to 10th place and need a minimum of 8 wins. For a team that only has 19 points and 3 wins from their first 27 games, I'm not sure where they're going to find at least 5 wins from in their last 11 games.

Excellent contribution to this thread. Well researched SDG.

[Since452]

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Since the 2009/10 season here's the stats on how the league table has looked after 27 games and since the 13/14 season I've also included how many points and wins the bottom team would have needed to get to the complete safety of 10th place;

09/10

Bottom - Falkirk
Points - 20 (3 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

10/11

Bottom - Hamilton
Points - 14 (8 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

11/12

Bottom - Dunfermline
Points - 19 (goal difference)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

12/13

Bottom - Dundee
Points - 17 (12 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

13/14

Bottom - Hearts*
Points - 6 (18 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
* Hearts had a 15 points deduction that season and actually ended the season picking up more points than Hibs.
10th place - 38 points and 8 wins

14/15

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 18 (1 point adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 41 points and 11 wins

15/16

Bottom - Dundee Utd
Points - 14 (14 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 43 points and 11 wins

16/17

Bottom - Inverness
Points - 22 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 37 points and 10 wins

17/18

Bottom - Ross County
Points - 21 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

18/19

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 14 (4 points adrift)
Finished - 11th (stayed up after winning the relegation play off).
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

19/20

Bottom - Hearts
Points - 19 (1 point adrift)
Finished - ?
10th place - Currently has only played 26 games and has 22 points and 5 wins.

They are in huge trouble and have a big fight on their hands to finish any higher than 11th.

History suggests that they'll require anywhere between 33 and 43 points to get to 10th place and need a minimum of 8 wins. For a team that only has 19 points and 3 wins from their first 27 games, I'm not sure where they're going to find at least 5 wins from in their last 11 games.

Offt. Interesting post. Doesn't bode well for the pink flumps

[Col2]

Good analysis SDG.

The thing that surprises me is they were either bottom or a point or two away from bottom when Our Daniel took over. He has had one league win in eleven. A shocking run of form and apparently the worst start in history for a Hearts manager.

Under normal circumstances you would expect the teams around them to have got at least 5 or 6 points clear. The hope they still have is Hamilton and St Mirren are equally dog *****.

[Joe6-2]

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Since the 2009/10 season here's the stats on how the league table has looked after 27 games and since the 13/14 season I've also included how many points and wins the bottom team would have needed to get to the complete safety of 10th place;

09/10

Bottom - Falkirk
Points - 20 (3 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

10/11

Bottom - Hamilton
Points - 14 (8 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

11/12

Bottom - Dunfermline
Points - 19 (goal difference)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

12/13

Bottom - Dundee
Points - 17 (12 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)

13/14

Bottom - Hearts*
Points - 6 (18 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
* Hearts had a 15 points deduction that season and actually ended the season picking up more points than Hibs.
10th place - 38 points and 8 wins

14/15

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 18 (1 point adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 41 points and 11 wins

15/16

Bottom - Dundee Utd
Points - 14 (14 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 43 points and 11 wins

16/17

Bottom - Inverness
Points - 22 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 37 points and 10 wins

17/18

Bottom - Ross County
Points - 21 (2 points adrift)
Finished - Bottom (relegated)
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

18/19

Bottom - St Mirren
Points - 14 (4 points adrift)
Finished - 11th (stayed up after winning the relegation play off).
10th place - 33 points and 9 wins

19/20

Bottom - Hearts
Points - 19 (1 point adrift)
Finished - ?
10th place - Currently has only played 26 games and has 22 points and 5 wins.

They are in huge trouble and have a big fight on their hands to finish any higher than 11th.

History suggests that they'll require anywhere between 33 and 43 points to get to 10th place and need a minimum of 8 wins. For a team that only has 19 points and 3 wins from their first 27 games, I'm not sure where they're going to find at least 5 wins from in their last 11 games.

Great work SDG