Another betting thread?

[Hibeesmad]

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I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

[Killiehibbie]

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I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

I would want better than 4/6, 3/1 the draw or 11/2 Newcastle to have a bet.

[Pretty Boy]

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For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.

Finished near the back again after fading badly in the final furlong.

[Hibeesmad]

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I would want better than 4/6, 3/1 the draw or 11/2 Newcastle to have a bet.

I'll probably back Leicester HT/FT at 7/5

[Killiehibbie]

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I'll probably back Leicester HT/FT at 7/5

A few going 13/8 for that. Squeeze every last penny you can out of them.

[Bangkok Hibby]

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I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

Yes maybe. I've said they may win, but I'm very cautious these days and there's enough doubts for me to say "No bet"

[c31]

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For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.

--9th/11th Bottom 3 again..

[Bangkok Hibby]

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How much statistical analysis do you do? Using any xG metrics or any of the newer more in depth stuff or any tried and trusted or anything else?

Seems a lot based on high level stuff or feel more than anything else? Maybe this works for you which is great, just thought anyone seriously trying to make money from betting would be using all available data to make decisions?

The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

[Pedantic_Hibee]

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The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

Spot on. I’m slowly learning. Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t long ago I took £696 from a fiver and I had a ridiculous run of winning circa £400 from £20 bets but it’s unsustainable. For now it’s doubles and singles. I’m trying to keep a steady bank of £40 in my account and any profit above that is immediately withdrawn into my bank account.

My latest p&l for the last 7 days shows a profit of £450.

[SChibs]

Leicester vs Newcastle

Over 1.5 goals
5+ Leicester corners
3+ Newcastle corners
1+ booking for each team

9/4 with Skybet.

[Since90+2]

Vintage clouds has a shot tomorrow in the Scottish national. Good horse although it fell last week , 10/1 is decent.

[seanshow]

I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.


Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.

Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.

Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683


One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol

[Hibeesmad]

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I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

Leicester's performance this evening reminded me of the Calderwood days. Probably the worst performance I've seen this season. Shocker

[franck sauzee]

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I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.


Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.

Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.

Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683


One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol

I started matched betting 3 years ago and now do it full time. Why did you close down your accounts?

[Squealing pig]

I done matched betting gets a sore head after first while trying to get offers

[Hibernia&Alba]

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The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

For those of us who don't know about racing, why do you avoid handicap races? Are they much more unpredictable?

[Bangkok Hibby]

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For those of us who don't know about racing, why do you avoid handicap races? Are they much more unpredictable?

The horses handicap rating is based on previous performances and is the opinion of one man "the handicapper" All the horses in a race are handicapped (carrying extra weight) relative to each other so theoretically they should all finish in a dead heat. Its an easy system to manipulate by a shrewd trainer, the great Martin Pipe's autobiography tells how he legally did this. Its a system with too many variables, so for me its a no go area.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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The horses handicap rating is based on previous performances and is the opinion of one man "the handicapper" All the horses in a race are handicapped (carrying extra weight) relative to each other so theoretically they should all finish in a dead heat. Its an easy system to manipulate by a shrewd trainer, the great Martin Pipe's autobiography tells how he legally did this. Its a system with too many variables, so for me its a no go area.

I see. Thanks for that.

[Bangkok Hibby]

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

[Bangkok Hibby]

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I think a lot comes down to how you view your gambling. If you are serious about trying to make an additional income out of it then that takes time, discipline and an ability to detach yourself from any emotion relating to the bet. On the other hand if you are betting a fiver a week on a multiple team acca with a very small chance of winning a fortune for a bit of fun then it's likely you aren't a 'serious gambler' anyway and overthinking it isn't going to increase your chances to any great extent.

Whilst I don't treat gambling as a way to make money, I also know I can be quite compulsive so I think very carefully about my bets. I only bet on horses and I can go days and weeks without a bet if nothing takes my fancy; I'll also happily watch races with no money at stake just to watch certain horses with a longer term view.

I keep track of every penny I stake, win and lose as it's a good way to keep a bit discipline and lose the 'it's only another tenner' mentality.

Can I ask what your thoughts are on breeding. I'll only bet in Group/Grade races so I can be assured (as much as anyone can) that the horses are of decent stock and (should) all be trying.
Horses are naturally pack animals and have leaders and followers. Could this explain why some have a string of seconds and thirds to their name? They are followers, and those who battle to the line are leaders? Maybe these traits are bred out of the line over generations? It's something I'd like to learn more about.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

I was one. To go HT/FT on an away side, you have to be very confident, and, to be fair, I was with Chelsea. HT/FT has to be on a team who are as close as possible to a certainty, otherwise it's too big a risk for cautious betters. I have HT/FT today on Spurs, Ajax and Peterhead - all at home - and even then a tenner only returns just over thirty quid. It might end up they all win but aren't ahead at half time, but, for a small stake, I'm willing to take the gamble. You have to decide whether the extra risk is worth the extra return, and the odds on a straight treble with the three mentioned teams are so small, and the chances of a first half lead so good, that it's worth it. I wouldn't go large on such a bet, however. It's all relative of risk/reward.

I should I also have those three to win FT as part of a larger accumulator - hedging my bets

[Bangkok Hibby]

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I was one. To go HT/FT on an away side, you have to be very confident, and, to be fair, I was with Chelsea. HT/FT has to be on a team who are as close as possible to a certainty, otherwise it's too big a risk for cautious betters. I have HT/FT today on Spurs, Ajax and Peterhead - all at home - and even then a tenner only returns just over thirty quid. It might end up they all win but aren't ahead at half time, but, for a small stake, I'm willing to take the gamble. You have to decide whether the extra risk is worth the extra return, and the odds on a straight treble with the three mentioned teams are so small, and the chances of a first half lead so good, that it's worth it. I wouldn't go large on such a bet, however. It's all relative of risk/reward.

Of course it is

I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Of course it is

I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck

HT/FT is always risky, even when a game looks a foregone conclusion: Huddersfield might defend for their lives today and hold out for 85 minutes; you just never know. Hence I will only put a few quid on such a bet. The key is to ask yourself whether a losing bet would hurt you. If yes, don't risk it.

[Sammy7nil]

[QUOTE=EskbankHibby;5763471]With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.[/QUOTE

Never bet anything shorter than 1\2 and that is probably still too short. Bookies love a Celtic Man City or Liverpool draw when they were between 1/7 or even seen City at 1\25 leave them well alone.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Another tip I would give from bitter experience is don't bet on matches from leagues you aren't familiar with, just because the odds look good. This is very true of Scandinavian football, for example, where the teams tend to be quite well matched. Just because a side is a short odds favourite, don't take that as a banker. Do your homework first: form, league table etc.

[HibeeMackenzie]

What we thinking about Bournemouth at 23/10 away to Brighton?

[BILLYHIBS]

Always put different teams in each acca no matter how strong you think a selection is as one wrong un can drag all your accas down

Basic I know!

[Rocky]

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Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

I know you're being careful to avoid sounding condescending so this isn't meant as a criticism, just an observation on the differing perspectives on gambling. It's clear that you're viewing gambling as a challenge where you're aiming to make a profit over an extended period of time and your advice is based on that - which is fine for people who want to try to do the same although my broad view on that is that beating the bookies over an extended period is extremely difficult and if you do they'll close your account anyway!

I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.

So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!

My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!

ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...

[Bangkok Hibby]

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What we thinking about Bournemouth at 23/10 away to Brighton?

For me..home win or draw..no bet

[Smartie]

I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.

I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.