Interesting article.
https://www.modernfitba.com/blogs/20...le8z18rhh6iq1v
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Thread: Lennon v Heckingbottom stats
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11-04-2019 06:56 PM #1
Lennon v Heckingbottom stats
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11-04-2019 07:05 PM #2
It's an interesting perspective. Personally, I think we look better under Heckingbottom than we did at the end of Lennon's time.
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11-04-2019 07:09 PM #3This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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11-04-2019 07:52 PM #4
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Definitely an interesting read.
Stats are stats. Interesting to delve into but there's no question that Hibs are markedly improved under Hecky and Celtic's performances have declined under Lennon. The points say so, the fans who watch 90 mins every week think so.
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11-04-2019 08:04 PM #5
It's interesting that Lennon's teams (both hibs and celtic) create more chances, but score less..is that because players under his managership are scared to fail ? His combatative style of management maybe means that if you miss good chances you are in the dog house...this leads to pressure..which makes the chances harder to score and actually has a negative effect. Heckingbottom and Rogers both seem to have a much calmer, friendlier style of management, where people aren't afraid of missing and therefore have less pressure. Maybe...would perhaps explain the anomalies in the stats.
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12-04-2019 11:04 AM #6This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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11-04-2019 08:23 PM #7
Interesting read
For a statistician there is a lot of whataboutery in his analysis i.e.” HIBS great results under Heckingbottom have been helped by opponents failure to take their chances.”
At the end of the day he fails to mention NLs three wins in 15 games or take into account his performance,irrational behaviour,tactics, poor team selections,avoidance of basic duties expected from a top flight Manager poor man management skills and an inability to sustain a working relationship with staff and his immediate superior
The improvement in performances under Heckingbottom are there for all to see and it does not need a master statistician to work that one out
Under Heckingbottom we have played eight games in the Premier League Won 6 Drawn 2 = 20 pts
I have no doubt that under NL we were headed for bottom six and a parting of the ways was inevitable as it was obvious he had run out of ideas about how to turn things around
His time so far at Celtic has been a continuation of his time at HIBS uninspiring and no idea how to change things when things start to go wrong
Night and day!
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11-04-2019 08:31 PM #8This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I know now there’s a tendency / demand to cover from ALL angles but really? (I’ve had a few and reserve the right to change my mind in the morning as I’m in a narky mood :)
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11-04-2019 08:53 PM #9
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That said, I do feel Hecky is getting more out of the players that we have and under Lennon with the same players we were in relegation form.
Lennon also had a good chunk of the season with better attacking options and even had SJM for one game.
All in all very interesting. I'm sure around this time last season the same guy predicted Kamberi's goal slump.
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11-04-2019 09:30 PM #10This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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11-04-2019 09:33 PM #11
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Last season Flo and Maclaren had excellent sources behind them and it's been obvious how much of an effect that loss had.
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11-04-2019 09:01 PM #12This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Loady*****............
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11-04-2019 09:37 PM #13
We have had a threadbare squad for ages now and heckingbottom has not really had many options to drastically change the personnel so i don't think its surprising that the performances look the same on paper. The difference seems to be more psycholgical, the players aren't scared to fail so they are playing with a bit more confidence. The addition of McNulty can't be overstated though, we were creating chances before he arrived but they weren't nearly as good and he wasn't there putting them away. That one player has made a huge difference along with the new manager bounce.
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12-04-2019 12:09 AM #15
Lennon really wasn't that good. Heck's got us being at least the sum of our parts. Much happier now about Hibs than I was a few months ago.
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12-04-2019 06:51 AM #16
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Lennon joined Hibs at the absolute optimum time after we won the Scottish Cup. Didn't have to do much other than ride the crest of a Tsunami for a couple of seasons. We'd have won the Championship under me that season and probably more emphatically then obviously had the promotion bounce while we were all still buzzing. Would have been interesting to see how Lennon got on taking over a struggling Hibs team, he certainly left one.
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12-04-2019 06:55 AM #17
Take John mcginn out lennons team and we would be bang average. Just look at the difference in the two away games in Europe.
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12-04-2019 07:04 AM #18
I reread the stats article this morning - I am sure he is absolutely right in his statistical analysis.
As I said yesterday, I personally find all this xG nonsense to be quite boring, but if it floats your boat, cool.
That we created less chances v Hearts and still won is seen in his stats as a potential negative in future matches - whereas I see it as evidence of a team playign for their manager and willing to dig in.
Where his article turns to pish for me is his assessment that stats suggest we are due a downturn in fortunes between now and the end of the season due to the xG anomoly so far.
You dont need some analyst to tell us this - we are now in the top 6 and all remaining matches will be hard fought against decent sides - its almost inevitable that we wont continue the form of the first 8 matches under PH.
I judge a manager on how I feel - right now, its good, very good. Last 2 months under Lennon were all a bit "meh".
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12-04-2019 07:35 AM #19
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I don’t think anyone could deny that Lennon got us some great results and performances particularly towards the end of last season and at the beginning of this season. However it was the alarmingly rapid drop in performances and results which caused concern.
A fairer and perhaps more interesting comparison of managerial roles would be between Lennon’s last 9 games and Heckingbottom’s first 9. Or the number of chances we have created and scored in the latter stages of games. While we may have rode our luck at times in recent games I don’t think there has been one point where the players heads have gone down and they don’t seem interested in contrast to the last performances under Lennon.
As with all things you can often use statistics to promote what you want and the main stats for Heckingbottom is played 8 won 6 drawn 2 lost 0 and more importantly Hearts 1 Hibs 2!
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12-04-2019 09:34 AM #20
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How do they work the xGoal stat out. It's an interesting analysis but a good chance with a defender giving you a last minute nudge or not are very different and I doubt it has that level of nuance. A good chance with Djoum on the ball is different to one with Sparky. What do the stats say about Keepers - Rocky's save against Killie was an xxxgoal opportunity but a great save stops it being a goal. Only one stat that counts is the amount of points you get in a game. So far Heck has us in League winning form if his record could be continued for a season.
Heck has us looking far more organised, working harder and also looking like a team. He has also done this without Boyle(major contributor in creating those xGoal moments for) and Efe and Porteous(major contributors in preventing xGoals against) I doubt any Hibby expects us to go unbeaten to the end of the season but if he can get another Derby win and a couple of draws or another win he will have made an excellent start with a threadbare squad not of his choosing. That bodes well for the future regardless of what the stats say. Even if the season fizzles out Heck has done enough imo to show he could be an excellent appointment.
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12-04-2019 10:22 AM #21This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
This isn't intended to knock NL. I admire his courage & enjoyed his time at ER but we were on a Butcheresque downward spiral when he left & that's not truly reflected in this analysis.
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12-04-2019 11:33 AM #23This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
However with a good model, xG has been proven multiple times to be a much better indicator of a teams long term success than points won or goals scored.
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12-04-2019 12:14 PM #24
I haven't read the article and probably will not bother.
On 23 January, just before Lennon was suspended, Hibs were in 8th place in the League. They were a point behind Livingston, 7 points behind Hearts and 8 behind St Johnstone. They were 15 adrift of Kilmarnock and Aberdeen. They also had a Motherwell side coming into a great run breathing down their necks.
Now Hibs are 5th, 2 points ahead of Hearts and within 6 points of Kilmarnock and Aberdeen. They are 10 points ahead of Livingston and 8 ahead of St Johnstone.
If that doesn't constitute a staggering improvement, I don't know what does.
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12-04-2019 12:31 PM #26This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
True, but we've also lost Ambrose, Porteous and Boyle. They were all to some degree significant to the way we played.
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12-04-2019 12:02 PM #27This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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12-04-2019 12:17 PM #28
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Every successful football team and nation uses it extensively.
It has got to be used in conjunction with good coaching though obviously. Cathro was absolutely not a good manager so no statistics in the world are going to help him!
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12-04-2019 10:32 AM #29
Lie, damn lies and statistics.
I was at a presentation at EM given by Hibs own in house analysis team and they were pretty critical of the methodology and findings of the site linked to and others like it. I'll trust the professionals.
I liked Neil Lennon (that should be like actually) and I like Heckingbotttom. I can see with my own eyes we are a better side now than we were for much of the last 3 months of NLs time in charge. We aren't 'lucky' to be winning games right now; the whole concept of luck is essentially a belief in a supernatural force determining the outcome of a football match. It doesn't exist.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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12-04-2019 10:50 AM #30
He concludes by saying Hibs are due a down turn and that NLs Celtic are about to take off by starting to convert the many chances created
I hope for NLs sake he is correct
Celtic face a tough match on Sunday and it has become a must win game for NL
Losing is not an option
As for HIBS we go into the final five games reinvigorated and batteries recharged and hopefully we might get some of our players back from injury
Opposition forwards missing goal scoring opportunities against us is not something that has ever bothered me
In Paul Heckingbottom we trust!
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