The Permutations

[Tug Wilson]

If Aberdeen beat The Rangers on Tuesday the league will be like this going into the derby.

Aberdeen 72
The Rangers 68
Hibs 66

Win the derby and we still have a chance of 2nd place. Anything else, even a loss, and we go into the last game in a shootout for 3rd. A win in the derby gives us the benefit of the draw for 3rd place. If we win then we are relying on Celtic to beat the Dons to potentially nudge into 2nd on goal difference.

***

The Rangers beat Aberdeen and it looks like this.

The Rangers 71
Aberdeen 69
Hibs 66

At this point a win in the derby puts us above the Dons on GD and only 2 points behind Sevco. The last game becomes the 2nd place shootout but The Rangers have the benefit of the draw. Aberdeen would probably have to take something at Parkhead to nick 3rd.

Draw or lose the derby and 2nd is gone, 3rd is still a possibility.

***

Finally, a draw between Aberdeen and The Rangers leaves the table heading into the derby as follows.

Aberdeen 70
The Rangers 69
Hibs 66

We then need at least a draw against the Hearts to have any chance of 2nd or 3rd. Beat Sevco and Aberdeen lose to Celtic then we get 2nd. In this scenario The Dons need a point in the last game to get 2nd.

***

Another way to look at it though is if we win both our last 2 games then we are on 72 points.

Best The Rangers can do at this point is 71 points which would mean Aberdeen would need to have beaten Celtic to get 72 and we are down to goal difference again.

Or we win both but Aberdeen also beat The Rangers then the Dons need a draw or win at Celtic to pip us.

So not totally in our hands but 2 wins and we still have a great chance of 2nd place. And we would have won at Tynecastle to do it!

***

I've divided post into sections to make it clearer.

[murray26]

It’s very exciting.. glad they play on Tuesday so we know exactly what we have to do.. a draw would do me or a rangers win

[.Sean.]

2nd would be fantastic but I’d be happy with 3rd, so long as we finish above Rangers.

[bingo70]

Match rangers result during the week and beat them next weekend and we’re guaranteed at least third, that’s all I’m caring about for now, anything else is a bonus.

[HibeeHibernian4]

Second is NOT gone if we draw the derby, I’m sorry but if you’re going to start a thread about permutations you may as well get it correct.

If Aberdeen and Rangers draw, we draw at Tynecastle, and we beat Rangers while Aberdeen lose at Celtic, we get second on goal difference. Sounds pretty doable to me.

[we are hibs]

Even if the sheep and Huns draw on Tuesday I'm not having that we should be going for a point at Tynie. We need to win there. It's as simple as that. Those extra 2 points would put us in a stronger position

[HibsNutter]

The simple way to look at it, two things need to happen for us to finish second:

1. We beat Hearts and Rangers. Two winnable games against inferior teams.

2. Celtic beat Aberdeen by a few goals on the final (trophy) day, removing their very slight goal difference advantage.

[bingo70]

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Even if the sheep and Huns draw on Tuesday I'm not having that we should be going for a point at Tynie. We need to win there. It's as simple as that. Those extra 2 points would put us in a stronger position

It’s about playing smart though and playing the percentages. Of course we’d all like to win, no, we’d all like to pump them 4 or 5 nil but in your hypothetical scenario I’d rather play smart, get the draw instead of leaving ourselves open to getting beat and go into Sunday knowing a win would give us Second. I’m sure Lennon will be of a mind that Aberdeen will almost definitely lose to Celtic.

I think the Tony Mowbray style of management would have us going gung ho for the win on Wednesday where as the more sensible Lennon style of management would look at it pragmatically and do the smart thing. It’s only in hindsight we will appreciate it.

Imo that’s what happened today.

[RoYO!]

One plus one, plus two, plus one.

[Billy Whizz]

We’re going to Tynie to win, and win we will
Then goes to Super Sunday

[Tug Wilson]

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Second is NOT gone if we draw the derby, I’m sorry but if you’re going to start a thread about permutations you may as well get it correct.

If Aberdeen and Rangers draw, we draw at Tynecastle, and we beat Rangers while Aberdeen lose at Celtic, we get second on goal difference. Sounds pretty doable to me.

If Aberdeen beat The Rangers then they have 72 points.

If The Rangers beat Aberdeen then they have 71 points.

If we then draw the derby it means that the best we can do is 70 points.

If Aberdeen and The Rangers draw then a draw in the derby still gives us a chance if we beat The Rangers and Aberdeen lose to Celtic.

However I don't think I said in the original post that a draw was us dead for 2nd

If you are going to pick holes in something then make sure that you get it right.

Post edited as I have confused myself now.

[Billy Whizz]

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If Aberdeen beat The Rangers then they have 72 points.

If The Rangers beat Aberdeen then they have 71 points.

If we then draw the derby it means that the best we can do is 70 points.

If Aberdeen and The Rangers draw then a draw in the derby still gives us a chance if we beat The Rangers by 5 goals and Aberdeen lose to Celtic.

So there is a slim chance but too be honest a draw is **** all good if we want 2nd place.

If you are going to pick holes in something then make sure that you get it right.

Not sure if that’s correct
If Aberdeen and Rangers draw, and we draw with Hearts, the table would like this
Aberdeen 70pts GD + 18
Rangers 69-pts GD +26
Hibs 67pts GD +17

In the last games if Celtic were to beat Aberdeen 1-0, and we beat Rangers 1-0, table would look like this
Hibs 70pts GD +18
Aberdeen 70pts GD + 17
Rangers 69pts GD +26

[Tug Wilson]

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Not sure if that’s correct
If Aberdeen and Rangers draw, and we draw with Hearts, the table would like this
Aberdeen 70pts GD + 18
Rangers 69-pts GD +26
Hibs 67pts GD +17

In the last games if Celtic were to beat Aberdeen 1-0, and we beat Rangers 1-0, table would look like this
Hibs 70pts GD +18
Aberdeen 70pts GD + 17
Rangers 69pts GD +26

Edited my post but not quickly enough before you noticed my error. It is all very confusing. Sorry.

[iwasthere1972]

Two games and still all to play for. That's all we need to know.

GGTTH.

[sleeping giant]

Tell you what , it's been great being in at the thick end this close to the end of the season.
Long may it continue.

[Billy Whizz]

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Edited my post. It is all very confusing. Sorry.

No worries

[Tug Wilson]

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Tell you what , it's been great being in at the thick end this close to the end of the season.
Long may it continue.

Absolutely. Got BT Sport for a month just so I can watch the derby. Then going on Sunday.

I really want us to be going into the final game playing for 2nd but even if all we have is the joy of humping The Rangers it will do for me.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

Given that first and second place was previously the reserve of the OF there must be decent cash for second place?

[Hiber-nation]

I'll be more than happy if we just beat the pair of them, no matter where we finish.

[Billy Whizz]

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Given that first and second place was previously the reserve of the OF there must be decent cash for second place?

Massive
2nd £2.28m
3rd £1.96
4th £1.72

Phenomenal money for a club like Hibs to get 2nd

[pacorosssco]

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2nd would be fantastic but I’d be happy with 3rd, so long as we finish above Rangers.

Agree Hibs done fantastic happy whatever but a win last game in front of full house would be icing. Deserved more today and imo better side than dons yet no complaints win ratio best my lifetime in top league and team form since xmas may never be matched

[bingo70]

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Agree Hibs done fantastic happy whatever but a win last game in front of full house would be icing. Deserved more today and imo better side than dons yet no complaints win ratio best my lifetime in top league and team form since xmas may never be matched

Think you’d be hard pushed to justify saying we were the better side today tbh, draw was a fair result because we missed a penalty but apart from that they dominated for the whole of the second half especially.

In saying that though I got annoyed the other night when people were saying Arsenal were the better side against Atletico Madrid, similar principles could be applied today, they had lots of the ball but we were totally comfortable throughout and I think we walked away with a result the Lennon would have been absolutely delighted with.

[IberianHibernian]

Massive prizes for 2nd - increased prize money ( and less for Aberdeen and Rangers ) and start Europa League one round later unless Motherwell win cup . Only possible if we win last 2 matches and Aberdeen don`t get 4 points ( would depend on goal difference ) or 6 or we get 4 points including beating Rangers and Dons - Rangers is a draw and Dons lose to Celtic . Lots of folk seem to assume Aberdeen will lose against Celtic even though teams with nothing to play for tend to rest players the week before cup finals ( in 2012 we lost in Inverness with weakened team just weeks after winning 3 - 2 there ) and a Celtic win may seem to favour Rangers in some permutations . Lots of permutations including us winning last 2 games , finishing second with and Motherwell winning cup so Rangers miss out on Europa League and we start a round earlier . So best situation seems to be for us to win last 2 games , Rangers to beat Aberdeen then Aberdeen to beat Celtic before Celtic win cup ( we qualify as second depending on goal difference but The Rangers would qualify for Europe too ) or same with Motherwell winning cup ( Motherewell would start later in EL and we`start with Aberdeen in earlier round whie Rangers joined Hearts in League Cup group stages ) :

[Ryan69]

Supporting Hibs and Scotland,nobody else....


You kind of expect to faulter..lol

This team keep going and fighting..Taking a draw today was HUGE!

Take away Celtic and it's easily the hardest matches of any season.

[Greenbeard]

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Tell you what , it's been great being in at the thick end this close to the end of the season.
Long may it continue.

Had we been offered the current situation before the first post-split game I think we'd all have taken it.

[Onion]

Good to know there are still a number of routes to 2nd and a real chance of 3rd if we beat the Huns.

Message from Lennon is simple... win the next 2 games and let the others worry about Hibs.

[Diclonius]

If we win our next two games we'll finish second. Why? Because Aberdeen will lose their next two games, given they're both against the OF. Their season is effectively over now, so we know what points tally to beat.

If we win both then the points tally will be as follows:
Hibs: 72
Rangers: 71
Aberdeen: 69

Even one win will be enough to finish third as Aberdeen's defeats will be by a couple goals each so we'll definitely overtake them on goal difference.

This may sound a little presumptive, but do you really think this isn't a possibility? Aberdeen ALWAYS bottle it against the OF.

[bingo70]

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If we win our next two games we'll finish second. Why? Because Aberdeen will lose their next two games, given they're both against the OF. Their season is effectively over now, so we know what points tally to beat.

If we win both then the points tally will be as follows:
Hibs: 72
Rangers: 71
Aberdeen: 69

Even one win will be enough to finish third as Aberdeen's defeats will be by a couple goals each so we'll definitely overtake them on goal difference.

This may sound a little presumptive, but do you really think this isn't a possibility? Aberdeen ALWAYS bottle it against the OF.

Just because they’ve always had a poor record against the rangers it doesn’t mean they’ll definitely lose this game.

These bad runs always have to come to an end at some time, we should know that better than most.

I don’t think there’s any chance of them beating Celtic at parkhead on trophy presentation day but it’s by no means a banker they’ll lose to rangers in midweek imo.

[seanshow]

I was looking at the Spfl rules when Two teams are in a tie for points at the end of the season, and I didn't realise that an extra one off play off match on a neutral venue is the final option to decide league position.
Highly unlikely to ever happen though.


https://spfl.co.uk/docs/067_324__the...1375800603.pdf

Summing up Section C35 (yip I need to get out more on Saturday nights)

In the event of Two teams finishing on equal points, position will be decided by :-

• League goal difference
• League goals scored
• Points (Head to Head)
• Goal difference (Head to Head)
• Neutral ground play off + Extra time, penalties.

[greenlex]

I can’t remember the last time if there ever was one where three teams have second place in their own hands with two games to go. Still think the split is absolute nonsense tho.