Do we have unrealistic expectations?

[Pretty Boy]

A lot has been said in recent days, especially since about 4.50 yesterday about where Hibs 'should' be in the game. I thought I'd have a wee look at us over the last 25 years and compare that to Hearts, Dundee Utd and Aberdeen. I'm not making any massive point here, just thought it was quite interesting to see how expectations (generally minimum top 6 and competing later stages of cups) compares to reality.

Hibernian since season 1990/91:

Average league position - 6.65 (98/99 and 14/15 excluded)
Relegations - 2
Trophies won - 2 x League Cup
Finals competed - 7
Average attendance - 10521 (excluding 14/15 and 07/08 as can't find the info)

Hearts -

Average league position - 4.95 (excluding 14/15)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 3 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 12999

Aberdeen

Average league position - 5.58
Relegation - 0 (finished bottom in 99/00 but no relegation due to reconstruction)
Trophies won - 2 x League Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 10587

Dundee Utd

Average League Position - 6 (excluding 95/96)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 2 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 8
Average attendance - 8435

As I said no real point. All 4 have had ups and downs. Hibs have been very good at getting to the later stages of cups but have generally underperformed (based on expectation) in the league. Craig Leveins record at both Hearts and Dundee Utd in cups is poor but very decent in the league. Aberdeen have had both consistent spells of top 4 finishes balanced with several bottom 6 finishes. Despite Hearts fans claims there isn't a massive variable in attendances between them, us and Aberdeen (and their attendance figure for a couple of season is bumped up due to crowds of 27K+ and 35K+ at Murrayfield).

[Sir David Gray]

I don't see why it should be deemed unrealistic to expect Hibs to be competing with the best sides in the country, outwith Celtic obviously.

We have the infrastructure and resources to compete with the clubs you mention and that is absolutely where we should be looking to be.

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

Finishing above teams like Ross Co, Dundee, Killie, Motherwell etc seems reasonable enough not kicking about in the 2nd tier for at least a couple of seasons.

[Pretty Boy]

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I don't see why it should be deemed unrealistic to expect Hibs to be competing with the best sides in the country, outwith Celtic obviously.

We have the infrastructure and resources to compete with the clubs you mention and that is absolutely where we should be looking to be.

I don't disagree.

Just thought it would be interesting to see how close to reality that has been for the 'bigger' sides in recent years. Seems for all of us it has been achieved some years and we have failed miserably others. Hearts have arguably been the most consistent but the inflated wages they were paying, from at least the time of the SMG investment, probably contributed to that.

[gillythehibby]

Hibernian FC should be competing top 4\5 every season. No argument. Alas it's not as easy as that as we all know !

[blackpoolhibs]

I expect us to be fighting EVERY season for Europe through our league position, and with decent draws have good runs in the cup.

The cups being one off games could go either way, and we could lose at any time, but over a season we SHOULD be fighting for 4th place at least EVERY season.

Yet here we are with a fabulous training ground, and a terrific ground languishing for the 2nd season in the 2nd division of Scottish football.

With EVERYTHING in place, what's happened and why?

And when can we realistically expect to be achieving the points i made, personally i don't see it happening soon?

Yes i know it's boring, but you know what's even more boring, Hibs v Dumbarton or Alloa or Livingston or QOS or Raith bloody Rovers.

[green day]

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A lot has been said in recent days, especially since about 4.50 yesterday about where Hibs 'should' be in the game. I thought I'd have a wee look at us over the last 25 years and compare that to Hearts, Dundee Utd and Aberdeen. I'm not making any massive point here, just thought it was quite interesting to see how expectations (generally minimum top 6 and competing later stages of cups) compares to reality.

Hibernian since season 1990/91:

Average league position - 6.65 (98/99 and 14/15 excluded)
Relegations - 2
Trophies won - 2 x League Cup
Finals competed - 7
Average attendance - 10521 (excluding 14/15 and 07/08 as can't find the info)

Hearts -

Average league position - 4.95 (excluding 14/15)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 3 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 12999

Aberdeen

Average league position - 5.58
Relegation - 0 (finished bottom in 99/00 but no relegation due to reconstruction)
Trophies won - 2 x League Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 10587

Dundee Utd

Average League Position - 6 (excluding 95/96)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 2 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 8
Average attendance - 8435

As I said no real point. All 4 have had ups and downs. Hibs have been very good at getting to the later stages of cups but have generally underperformed (based on expectation) in the league. Craig Leveins record at both Hearts and Dundee Utd in cups is poor but very decent in the league. Aberdeen have had both consistent spells of top 4 finishes balanced with several bottom 6 finishes. Despite Hearts fans claims there isn't a massive variable in attendances between them, us and Aberdeen (and their attendance figure for a couple of season is bumped up due to crowds of 27K+ and 35K+ at Murrayfield).

Very interesting and points out that we have not been quite as bad as some people think.

....however, the current (minimum) 2 seasons minimum in championship will really bugger those stats up!!!

[NAE NOOKIE]

To expect a club with a support and facilities which easily put it in the top 6 clubs in the country to be .... A) in the top league .... and B) a top 6 club more often than not, is hardly unrealistic. I'm sure I saw somewhere that since the split was introduced Hibs have won one ( that's one ) post split match. I would say it isn't expecting the world for us to be doing better than that.

[Scouse Hibee]

I expect **** all from Hibs, I'm rarely disappointed. ;-)

[emerald green]

Good OP, but it is not unrealistic for Hibs supporters to expect their team to beat part time clubs like Dumbarton, particularly when one considers Hibs resources compared to theirs.

IIRC this is not a recent one-off, i.e. getting beat by a part time club. It doesn't matter a jot that Hibs had 60% possession bla bla bla because they still got beat. It's results that matter.

Hibs recently paid £100,000 was it to St Mirren to secure John McGinn's signature. Clubs like Dumbarton can only dream of doing that, yet they are beating Hibs. Something is wrong somewhere.

[steviehibsleith]

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Good OP, but it is not unrealistic for Hibs supporters to expect their team to beat part time clubs like Dumbarton, particularly when one considers Hibs resources compared to theirs.

IIRC this is not a recent one-off, i.e. getting beat by a part time club. It doesn't matter a jot that Hibs had 60% possession bla bla bla because they still got beat. It's results that matter.

Hibs recently paid £100,000 was it to St Mirren to secure John McGinn's signature. Clubs like Dumbarton can only dream of doing that, yet they are beating Hibs. Something is wrong somewhere.

Agree how many teams even in the SPL can pay £100,000 to sign a player Also how much are we paying our first team players because if it 2/3/4 times as much as a Dumbarton player then of course we should be beating them. If not we have the wrong players being paid too much.

[NORTHERNHIBBY]

Guess we need a breakdown of what we spend the income on. That's another debate I suppose but I think it is fair comment that teams like Ross County and St Johnstone who do much better with much less
, will focus primarily on the first team squad for this season and youth policy or training facilities are a distance away from the starting eleven.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Hibernian FC should be competing top 4\5 every season. No argument. Alas it's not as easy as that as we all know !

I was thinking about our realistic expectations last night. This was my thinking:

Group 1 - The Old Firm. Expecting to win the SPL, doubles, trebles, and qualify for the Champions League group stages. Rangers' situation of late obviously alters the norm.

Group 2 - Hibs, Hearts, Aberdeen, Dundee United. These clubs should be competing to be Scotland's third force, looking to play in the Europa League and to win a domestic cup every few years. We're miles from minimum expectations at the moment.

Group 3 - Motherwell, Killie, Dundee and perhaps a couple of others. Minimum expectations to maintain SPL status and win a domestic cup once in a blue moon.

Group 4 - Hamilton, St Mirren, Partick and several others. Minimum expectations to have periods in the SPL. No trophy expectations but you can always dream.


We can discuss which clubs belong in which category, as expectations change over time. But Hibs should always be looking to finish in the upper echelons of the SPL and to target a cup win. So, as things stand I can draw no other conclusion than our being the biggest underachievers in Scottish football, falling far behind minimum expectations. For almost a decade now we've been on a downward trajectory and have become increasingly accustomed to mediocrity.

So no, it isn't a case of expectations being too high at Hibs, rather it's a case of our falling woefully short of potential. Third largest club stadium in the country, great facilities, large support; but just look at us.

[Feed McGraw]

Considering Hibs standing in Scottish football, I would say the Hibs support in general has pretty low expectations. Sadly, even these low expectations are rarely attained.

[Spike Mandela]

My only 'realistic' expectations approaching every season are that we won't be relegated and in the rare event that we do get relegated we will come straight back up the following year.

My realism is being stretched to it's very limit.

[Keith_M]

I expect Hibs to hump teams like Dumbarton in every single game.


Is that unrealistic?

[Hibernia&Alba]

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I expect Hibs to hump teams like Dumbarton in every single game.


Is that unrealistic?

Absolutely not. It's the thought of defeat at Dumbarton that should be incredible and unrealistic. We have a lot to be proud of: like I said, stadium and support to name two. The fact we averaged over ten thousand for home games last season is a credit to the Hibs fans and demonstrates the loyalty and endurance of the support. But the team never seems to tire of showing us up; yesterday being the latest example.

[Andy74]

This might have been a relevant question when we were concerned about only being a mid table top league team. Dumbarton though?

[Pretty Boy]

I think a few people may have misunderstood my OP, and I admit the timing is poor, my post was in no way meant as a defence of yesterday or our current position. It was more related to where we see ourselves in 3, 4 or 5 years say and how that relates to recent history.

[blackpoolhibs]

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I think a few people may have misunderstood my OP, and I admit the timing is poor, my post was in no way meant as a defence of yesterday or our current position. It was more related to where we see ourselves in 3, 4 or 5 years say and how that relates to recent history.

We were told that build the new training centre, get the stadium finished and things would look after themselves. The two things were intertwined into the glorious future we'd all see with the foundations these two projects would give us.

Now its buy HSL and get your arse back to Easter road, if i'm honest i have no idea where we might be this time next season or the year after that?

[Onion]

Stats are interesting but the kind of thing Petrie and a weak Board/Owner might throw at customers to try convince them that things are not that bad. Given there's no chance of winning the league, the Scottish Cup and Derby records take on extra importance to the feelgood factor. Over the last 25 years, on both counts, Hearts have owned Hibs.

Euro qualification, top 6, league position, relegation and even cup finals are mere side-shows. Winning the Cup and beating your local rivals are what matters most.

[Carheenlea]

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So no, it isn't a case of expectations being too high at Hibs, rather it's a case of our falling woefully short of potential. Third largest club stadium in the country, great facilities, large support; but just look at us.

Agree wholeheartedly with this

[GreenLake]

I saw an omen yesterday while driving so I am expecting things to turn for the better.

IMG_3334.jpg

[Ozyhibby]

If we are not promoted this season then we will have been below the mighty Ross County for 7 years.
My expectations are not being met and I don't think that's unrealistic.

[hibeesjoe]

I genuinely expect hibs to get promoted this season. We can't afford to stay down in the championship for much longer and attendances prove the point. I remember a couple of seasons back we sold out the stadium for a game. First time since we built the new East. The fans are out there somewhere but as a club we have under achieved for years.

[Bishop Hibee]

If getting promotion is 'unrealistic' then I'm guilty of it! St Johnstone have finished top 6 for the last 4 seasons in a row. That's the sort of expectations I gave for Hibs. Miles away from achieving that obviously.

[Pete]

Based on our size and resources we should be top six every year minimum. You can maybe explain one or two anomalies but it takes a special kind of crap leadership to get us to the level we've ended up. It's bizarre.

[Albion Hibs]

No, not in the slightest. In fact I think our expectations are too low.

we used to verbally destroy managers and players for not finishing in the top six. We are now in our 2nd season in the 2nd tier, we got thumped 6-2 last week and beat off a part time team this week.

[ancient hibee]

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A lot has been said in recent days, especially since about 4.50 yesterday about where Hibs 'should' be in the game. I thought I'd have a wee look at us over the last 25 years and compare that to Hearts, Dundee Utd and Aberdeen. I'm not making any massive point here, just thought it was quite interesting to see how expectations (generally minimum top 6 and competing later stages of cups) compares to reality.

Hibernian since season 1990/91:

Average league position - 6.65 (98/99 and 14/15 excluded)
Relegations - 2
Trophies won - 2 x League Cup
Finals competed - 7
Average attendance - 10521 (excluding 14/15 and 07/08 as can't find the info)

Hearts -

Average league position - 4.95 (excluding 14/15)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 3 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 12999

Aberdeen

Average league position - 5.58
Relegation - 0 (finished bottom in 99/00 but no relegation due to reconstruction)
Trophies won - 2 x League Cups
Finals competed - 6
Average attendance - 10587

Dundee Utd

Average League Position - 6 (excluding 95/96)
Relegations - 1
Trophies won - 2 x Scottish Cups
Finals competed - 8
Average attendance - 8435

As I said no real point. All 4 have had ups and downs. Hibs have been very good at getting to the later stages of cups but have generally underperformed (based on expectation) in the league. Craig Leveins record at both Hearts and Dundee Utd in cups is poor but very decent in the league. Aberdeen have had both consistent spells of top 4 finishes balanced with several bottom 6 finishes. Despite Hearts fans claims there isn't a massive variable in attendances between them, us and Aberdeen (and their attendance figure for a couple of season is bumped up due to crowds of 27K+ and 35K+ at Murrayfield).

Actually I think Hearts having an attendance averaging 25%more than us is massive and should have put them in a strong financial position-shows what a dreadful mess they made.Hibs should always be challenging for top four.That we have not done that over decades just shows we have underachieved consistently and have had no game plan to do anything other than survive.Not good enough by a long way.The club were right to set up a proper training ground and improve Easter Road but that should only have been part of the way forward.The way the playing side has been neglected since we won the League Cup is unforgivable.A great deal is made of the management ensuring that players signed must be the "right type"and fit in-personally I think it's time we started signing some right ba****ds.

[Seekyit]

This’ll be the right thread to say that I was taken to my first Hibs match 40 years ago today, 9^th August 1975. 2-0 versus Dundee at Easter Road, League Cup, group stage.


With this in mind I did some stats of my own recently:-


In my 40 years of watching Hibs we have finished 3^rd four times. We have finished 4^th three times. We have finished between 5^th and 8^th twenty times. We have finished between 9^th and 11^th nine times. We have spent three seasons in the second tier of Scottish football.


9 finals. Won two, lost seven.


21 semi-finals. Lost twelve, won nine.


Qualified for Europe 8 times.


In answer to the OP, yes I think we expect too much sometimes, but I don’t expect to be in the second tier. I expect us to be in the top tier, at the higher end of it – maybe not always, I can accept mid table given who we are (we’ll always have transitional periods due to turnovers of personnel), but Division One, as I call it, no.


Correct me if I’m wrong about any of the above stats btw.