What others think.....

[HappyAsHellas]

Found on the thistle supporters forum, and I thought some people here had too much time on their hands:



Last night after the Hibs game I ran a simulation of 1000 seasons in Excel based on random results from here on in to see what the likely permutations were in terms of points needed.

In order to use GD to separate the teams I had to generate actual scores rather than just win / draw / loss but limited max goals per team per game to 4 so not to end up with wild results.

Obviously as it's entirely random it doesn't include form or momentum (i.e. Hibs) but they're hard to quantify.

Conclusion 1: I desperately need my hole, but that's a side issue.

Conclusion 2: the likelihood of each team finishing in the playoff position as it stands with random results.

Hibs- 6.1%
Killie- 9.5%
County- 22.8%
St Mirren-24%
Thistle- 37.6%

I'd expect with more seasons then County and St Mirren would be even closer together.

Conclusion 3

The average points for 10th was a bawhair under 37, the average points for 11th midway between 34 and 35.

Conclusion 4

The following points totals were safe the following % of the time

35- safe 47% of the time
36- safe 70% of the time
37- safe 84% of the time
38- safe 97% of the time
39- safe 99.8% of the time (both times Thistle ended up with 39 and St Mirren and Killie on 40, raging)
40- safe 100% of the time



There we have it, 37 probably does it, 38 and 39 almost definitely do it.

discuss.................

[hibs0666]

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Found on the thistle supporters forum, and I thought some people here had too much time on their hands:



Last night after the Hibs game I ran a simulation of 1000 seasons in Excel based on random results from here on in to see what the likely permutations were in terms of points needed.

In order to use GD to separate the teams I had to generate actual scores rather than just win / draw / loss but limited max goals per team per game to 4 so not to end up with wild results.

Obviously as it's entirely random it doesn't include form or momentum (i.e. Hibs) but they're hard to quantify.

Conclusion 1: I desperately need my hole, but that's a side issue.

Conclusion 2: the likelihood of each team finishing in the playoff position as it stands with random results.

Hibs- 6.1%
Killie- 9.5%
County- 22.8%
St Mirren-24%
Thistle- 37.6%

I'd expect with more seasons then County and St Mirren would be even closer together.

Conclusion 3

The average points for 10th was a bawhair under 37, the average points for 11th midway between 34 and 35.

Conclusion 4

The following points totals were safe the following % of the time

35- safe 47% of the time
36- safe 70% of the time
37- safe 84% of the time
38- safe 97% of the time
39- safe 99.8% of the time (both times Thistle ended up with 39 and St Mirren and Killie on 40, raging)
40- safe 100% of the time



There we have it, 37 probably does it, 38 and 39 almost definitely do it.

discuss.................

I'm liking that, and I also agree with conclusion one.

[Michael]

Unfortunately for Scotland, this website is a couple of weeks behind but before the Aberdeen match it calculated we only had a 3% chance of finishing 11th (a bit optimistic maybe!). Once it updates with the bottom 6 fixtures it might be a bit more interesting.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/Scotl...ierLeague.html

[Bronson]

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Found on the thistle supporters forum, and I thought some people here had too much time on their hands:



Last night after the Hibs game I ran a simulation of 1000 seasons in Excel based on random results from here on in to see what the likely permutations were in terms of points needed.

In order to use GD to separate the teams I had to generate actual scores rather than just win / draw / loss but limited max goals per team per game to 4 so not to end up with wild results.

Obviously as it's entirely random it doesn't include form or momentum (i.e. Hibs) but they're hard to quantify.

Conclusion 1: I desperately need my hole, but that's a side issue.

Conclusion 2: the likelihood of each team finishing in the playoff position as it stands with random results.

Hibs- 6.1%
Killie- 9.5%
County- 22.8%
St Mirren-24%
Thistle- 37.6%

I'd expect with more seasons then County and St Mirren would be even closer together.

Conclusion 3

The average points for 10th was a bawhair under 37, the average points for 11th midway between 34 and 35.

Conclusion 4

The following points totals were safe the following % of the time

35- safe 47% of the time
36- safe 70% of the time
37- safe 84% of the time
38- safe 97% of the time
39- safe 99.8% of the time (both times Thistle ended up with 39 and St Mirren and Killie on 40, raging)
40- safe 100% of the time



There we have it, 37 probably does it, 38 and 39 almost definitely do it.

discuss.................

Conclusion 1 is certainly evident but this is quite an interesting read nonetheless. Would suggest we have less to worry about than the press have been making out in recent weeks.

[SetonClapper]

It's interesting but irrelevant because it's predicated upon each team being as likely to beat ever other team, which is not the case. He does say that form cannot be factored in, but that's really the key element. If you make the sample large enough, the final positions will be as they are now because all the points will be shared. FWIW I think we'll avoid the play-off spot by picking up a couple of results, but it is going to be squeaky bum time.

[Geo_1875]

It's all random and bears no resemblance to real life.

[Keith_M]

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discuss.................

Ehm, you need to get a life?

[The Sea-gull]

Fair play to whoever has taken the time to do it but for me it doesn't really tell me anything I don't know.

We are less likely to get relegated than most of the other teams but with each passing week it becomes more likely until we stop losing games. Whatever happens we are rank rotten, it has been a terrible season and there is much to be done by the board, the management, the players and the fans over the summer to turn it around.

That said, as a club we just need to focus on getting safe for now and if we manage this (which we should be capable of) we can start to think about how to start cleaning up the mess we are in during the summer.

[rcarter1]

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Found on the thistle supporters forum, and I thought some people here had too much time on their hands:



Last night after the Hibs game I ran a simulation of 1000 seasons in Excel based on random results from here on in to see what the likely permutations were in terms of points needed.

In order to use GD to separate the teams I had to generate actual scores rather than just win / draw / loss but limited max goals per team per game to 4 so not to end up with wild results.

Obviously as it's entirely random it doesn't include form or momentum (i.e. Hibs) but they're hard to quantify.

Conclusion 1: I desperately need my hole, but that's a side issue.

Conclusion 2: the likelihood of each team finishing in the playoff position as it stands with random results.

Hibs- 6.1%
Killie- 9.5%
County- 22.8%
St Mirren-24%
Thistle- 37.6%

I'd expect with more seasons then County and St Mirren would be even closer together.

Conclusion 3

The average points for 10th was a bawhair under 37, the average points for 11th midway between 34 and 35.

Conclusion 4

The following points totals were safe the following % of the time

35- safe 47% of the time
36- safe 70% of the time
37- safe 84% of the time
38- safe 97% of the time
39- safe 99.8% of the time (both times Thistle ended up with 39 and St Mirren and Killie on 40, raging)
40- safe 100% of the time



There we have it, 37 probably does it, 38 and 39 almost definitely do it.

discuss.................

This is just the kind of stuff I love to see! Forgetting that we are dropping like a stone, this is very encouraging. But it still says that all teams being equal theres a 6.1% of playoff. I wonder if you can handicap the calculations based on lack of confidence and morale and ability.

[Jack]

At the beginning of the season I thought we had a good team on paper. It came to pass, probably to the opposition, that on grass they weren't very good at all :-(

Lets hope, as the season draws to a close, the team play to the expectations of an excel spreadsheet!

[matty_f]

His conclusions 1 was correct.

[McSwanky]

Bear in mind he said he did that "after the Hibs game" i.e. 3 more games have passed since then and Hibs have lost all 3. That 6.1% is going to be a tad higher now...

[HappyAsHellas]

That Hibs game was against the sheep. No one else played since then have they?

[McSwanky]

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That Hibs game was against the sheep. No one else played since then have they?

Ah, I thought you meant the Thistle v Hibs game. Sorry.

[GreenLake]

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Found on the thistle supporters forum, and I thought some people here had too much time on their hands:



Last night after the Hibs game I ran a simulation of 1000 seasons in Excel based on random results from here on in to see what the likely permutations were in terms of points needed.

In order to use GD to separate the teams I had to generate actual scores rather than just win / draw / loss but limited max goals per team per game to 4 so not to end up with wild results.

Obviously as it's entirely random it doesn't include form or momentum (i.e. Hibs) but they're hard to quantify.

Conclusion 1: I desperately need my hole, but that's a side issue.

Conclusion 2: the likelihood of each team finishing in the playoff position as it stands with random results.

Hibs- 6.1%
Killie- 9.5%
County- 22.8%
St Mirren-24%
Thistle- 37.6%

I'd expect with more seasons then County and St Mirren would be even closer together.

Conclusion 3

The average points for 10th was a bawhair under 37, the average points for 11th midway between 34 and 35.

Conclusion 4

The following points totals were safe the following % of the time

35- safe 47% of the time
36- safe 70% of the time
37- safe 84% of the time
38- safe 97% of the time
39- safe 99.8% of the time (both times Thistle ended up with 39 and St Mirren and Killie on 40, raging)
40- safe 100% of the time



There we have it, 37 probably does it, 38 and 39 almost definitely do it.

discuss.................

Fortunately the restaurant is rather empty so only a few people saw me choke on my wine.

[sleeping giant]

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Fortunately the restaurant is rather empty so only a few people saw me choke on my wine.

What type and how much ? See the Holy Ground

[GreenLake]

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What type and how much ? See the Holy Ground

Pinot Noir $8 a glass, second was $4 happy hour. Choked on the first glass, third gulp. I didn't see the Holy Ground but the waitress was curious why I was laughing (and choking) and had not heard the expression "need my hole" before.