Referee's performance in Hibs games (stats)

[tomf]

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Won't be popular either, but I agree with you. This board is beginning to read like a Celtc forum. Every time Thomson is appointed to ref us, there's a thread about it, plus one afterwards bemoaning his anti-Hibs agenda. I can well remember the Smellies sending out private detectives to investigate referees, and rumbling on about Masonic conspiracies.

I don't, by the way, think much of Thomson's refereeing ability,and even less of his Billy Big Baws demeanour, but all this consipracy stuff is just boring IMO. Like a guy who is so Hertz daft he'll sacrifice his professional integrity is going to help Celtc win a game against anyone? It's easy to make stats support any argument - there are all sorts of factors which can affect the numbers.

Actually turning up for a cup final for once, or our defence not marking each other, are more likely to have a positive effect on our result than any choice of referee.

Whilst I am happy for you both to have your opinion I would just ask you to consider the possibility that a ref could be biased. What is there in the system to monitor this, prove it and deal with it? If not statistics then what? We all have opinions and I would argue that, for instance, a player involved in match fixing would be unlikely to appear to be less than committed in any given match in order to escape scrutiny but the overall stats (including stats such as betting patterns for instance) might provide a different picture. I am not accusing Thomson of any betting /match fixing conspiracy by the way; I am just pointing out that there are systems in place to prove such things.

I think that earlier posts regarding the timing of events such as bookings is very relevant; no-one needs reminded of the consequences of the first two fouls committed in the early stages of that final and the timing of the penalty decison and subsequent sending off in that same match. Once the damage is done he can be as fair as he likes. I don't dispute that Hibs would have lost that final regardless and I could have lived with a 1-2 on Sunday but the eventual scoreines reflect the referee more than the opposition.

Apologies to everyone for the length of this posting but one final point. In an earlier post I suggested the possibility that Hibs players could argue his decsions more than other refs because they are aware of his reputation and we would therefore recieve more bookings but my wife has pointed out that the counter to that would be that opposing team players are also aware and could obviously use that to their advantage. The statstics are the best proof as to whether Thomson is biased or not. Our opinions don't really matter but it does appear that the majority of posters on this topic can feel vindicated.

[PatHead]

Don't know how you would get the stats but is there any way that retrospective red cards are awarded or Red Cards overturned could be calculated for his games?

[Saorsa]

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Let's see some then.

Nowt yet then.

[Kato]

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Nowt yet then.

[tomf]

I appreciate that this thread may have run its course but I noted an old article concerning Craig Thomson at http://www.express.co.uk/sport/footb...-Craig-Thomson

and thought it interesting. I imagine that nothing came of this but doesn't it raise questions about his ability to be impartial in any game? If not, it must raise questions about his competency. Is no-one at the top of Scottish football listening? The complaints aren't all from Hibs fans...or must everything be sacrificed to ensure Hearts and their pet referee survive to win / cheat again?

Going by the principal that we are all no more than six times removed; I could ask you to pass this on to everyone you know and it will inevitably reach Craig...Please resign now before you do any more damage to the credibility of Scottish football. If he got the request from his cousin / pal / colleague / partner he might just take note. Tiny Wharton will be spinning in his grave.

[Nailrod]

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I appreciate that this thread may have run its course...

Ahem. This thread won't have "run its course" until khib70 produces a set of stats that show that Thomson actually favours Hibs over other teams. Which he should do fairly soon and without too much trouble since, in the words of the man himself:

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It's easy to make stats support any argument...

[Moulin Yarns]

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Ahem. This thread won't have "run its course" until khib70 produces a set of stats that show that Thomson actually favours Hibs over other teams. Which he should do fairly soon and without too much trouble since, in the words of the man himself:

Hexham Hibee emailed me an excel spreadsheet that comes from Transfer Markt, a German site so can only presume they are right. Once I've digested I'll try and summarise.

If anybody wants a look, try this http://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/en/default/startseite/schiedsrichter.html

[Nailrod]

Frankly, this thread shouldn't have 'run its course' until the issue has been properly examined. I've never been a great one for 'conspiracy theories' - always preferred to leave that form or paranoia to the bigot brothers - but to anybody who know anything about statistics, the discrepancies in Thomson's figures are disturbing. If you plot the OP's stats for Hibs games alone on a graph - mapping either total yellow cards or ratio of yellow cards against number of matches reffed - the visual impact is shocking.

Clearly, if you analyse all refs and their figures for all clubs, then by a simple matter of logic one ref is going to come out as the 'harshest' ref, and one particular club is going to be the 'victim'. But at that extreme of analysis, the margin of discrepancy should be minimal. In Thomson's case his figures are miles out of synch with the figures of other refs in Hibs matches, and this in a context that he has in fact reffed a high number of matches, so his figures should actually be reverting towards the mean.

Later edit. Let's put it as bluntly as this. If there was any suspicion that Thomson had been betting on Hibs games, then the stats alone would probably be enough to condemn him.

[Hibercelona]

Statistically, Thomson is more than twice as likely to book a Hibs player than an opposition player. Statistically, Thompson is 30% likely to award the opposition a penalty during a match against Hibs and 0% likely to award Hibs with one.

He's also more than 25% likely to award Hearts with a penalty when officiating one of their games. 20% likely to send an opposition player off and 0% likely to send a Hearts player off.

These statistics are based on the last 17 games that he has taken charge of involving Hibs, which covers the current season and the 2 seasons prior to it and the 15 games that he has been in charge of involving Hearts during the same time period.

These statistics haven't be scewed in anyway, it's exactly what the statistics will tell you for that time period.

Admittedly, if you go further back than the 2 seasons prior, things are fairly level.

It seems that since Thomson has built up the reputation as "Scotlands best referee". He views this as an opportunity to get away with whatever he wants.

[Kaiser1962]

I am currently looking at Brines, Collum and Murray, and Thomsons booking rate for Hibs players is still the highest overall at 2.28 per game. Collum is most likely to book a Hearts player (2.27 pg), with Brines also most likely to book a Hearts player (2.16 pg).

Bokings for Hibs players are Thomson at 2.28 pg; Collum 1.67pg; Brines 1.67pg and Murray 2.07. Murray has only refereed 14 Hibs games.

Bookings for Hearts players are Thomson 1.87; Collum 2.27; Brines 2.16 and Murray 1.57.

I think these guys get the more high profile encounters.

[truehibernian]

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I am currently looking at Brines, Collum and Murray, and Thomsons booking rate for Hibs players is still the highest overall at 2.28 per game. Collum is most likely to book a Hearts player (2.27 pg), with Brines also most likely to book a Hearts player (2.16 pg).

Bokings for Hibs players are Thomson at 2.28 pg; Collum 1.67pg; Brines 1.67pg and Murray 2.07. Murray has only refereed 14 Hibs games.

Bookings for Hearts players are Thomson 1.87; Collum 2.27; Brines 2.16 and Murray 1.57.

I think these guys get the more high profile encounters.

What is Steven McLean's stats mate ?

Steven is the best referee in Scotland in my eyes - played the game, his brother is a pro, he reads the game well, talks to players and officials the right way and lets the game flow - really nice guy too. Always found Mike Tumilty to be a really good bloke and really fair minded when talking about the game.

Callum Murray should be getting more top games too - another who has a nice manner, tries his best to let the game flow and isn't card happy.

[Nailrod]

I've checked out Thomson's full stats on the website listed by Golden Fleece. Taking all his games involving all the current SPL plus the old Rangers.

On average, Thomson awards 1.70 yellows per game (excludes Hibs, includes double-yellows)
On average, Thomson gives Hibs 2.41 yellows per game
He gives Hibs 42% more yellows than his average

On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game
On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game
He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average

In Hibs games, he gives Hibs 75% more yellow cards than the opposition.
After Hibs, the next worst 'sufferers' are Killie. In Killie games Thomson gives Killie 27% more cards than the opposition.
In Hearts games, Thomson gives the opposition 24% more yellow cards than Hearts.

On average, Thomson awards 0.13 pens per game to all other teams, and 0.06 per game to Hibs
(i.e. he is half as likely to award Hibs a penalty as any other team)

On average, in Thomson awards 0.10 penalties against other teams and 0.28 against Hibs
(i.e. he is three times more likely to give a penalty against Hibs than any other team.

If I plot any of these numbers on a graph, there will be a fairly steady linear progression, with Hibs as a complete outrider on every single one

[matty_f]

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I've checked out Thomson's full stats on the website listed by Golden Fleece. Taking all his games involving all the current SPL plus the old Rangers.

On average, Thomson awards 1.70 yellows per game (excludes Hibs, includes double-yellows)
On average, Thomson gives Hibs 2.41 yellows per game
He gives Hibs 42% more yellows than his average

On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game
On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game
He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average

In Hibs games, he gives Hibs 75% more yellow cards than the opposition.
After Hibs, the next worst 'sufferers' are Killie. In Killie games Thomson gives Killie 27% more cards than the opposition.
In Hearts games, Thomson gives the opposition 24% more yellow cards than Hearts.

On average, Thomson awards 0.13 pens per game to all other teams, and 0.06 per game to Hibs
(i.e. he is half as likely to award Hibs a penalty as any other team)

On average, in Thomson awards 0.10 penalties against other teams and 0.28 against Hibs
(i.e. he is three times more likely to give a penalty against Hibs than any other team.

If I plot any of these numbers on a graph, there will be a fairly steady linear progression, with Hibs as a complete outrider on every single one

I think there's a very clear pattern here, and if it was purely coincidence we'd maybe come up as the most "hard done by" in one, maybe two, of the categories, but I can't see an argument to explain these stats stronger than that which states be is biased against us. That's before you put in the observational arguments, anecdotal evidence of major, game changing decisions almost relentlessly going against us. Even the argument that Aberdeen should have had a penalty against us (which they should) is diminished when you consider we should have had a penalty and potentially their keeper sent off much earlier in the game.

He's a cheat, pure and simple.

[Saorsa]

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It would seem those stats are pretty illusive.

[Kojock]

I don't need stats to prove anything. I have seen time and time again that he is a cheating *******.

[Nailrod]

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I don't need stats to prove anything. I have seen time and time again that he is a cheating *******.

The difference being that these stats are so overwhelming that if Thomson was being investigated for illegal betting, the cops would reckon they had an open-and-shut case.

[Saorsa]

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I think there's a very clear pattern here, and if it was purely coincidence we'd maybe come up as the most "hard done by" in one, maybe two, of the categories, but I can't see an argument to explain these stats stronger than that which states be is biased against us. That's before you put in the observational arguments, anecdotal evidence of major, game changing decisions almost relentlessly going against us. Even the argument that Aberdeen should have had a penalty against us (which they should) is diminished when you consider we should have had a penalty and potentially their keeper sent off much earlier in the game.

He's a cheat, pure and simple.

His stats against us are a disgrace, yet there are still those who claim it's nowt mair than incompetence on his part. It's purely a coincidence that his 'incompetence' always favours the teams against us. It's unbelievable tae me that anybody can come tae any other conclusion than he's at it. As you say, he's a cheat, pure and simple.

[Onion]

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I've checked out Thomson's full stats on the website listed by Golden Fleece. Taking all his games involving all the current SPL plus the old Rangers.

On average, Thomson awards 1.70 yellows per game (excludes Hibs, includes double-yellows)
On average, Thomson gives Hibs 2.41 yellows per game
He gives Hibs 42% more yellows than his average

On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game
On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game
He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average

In Hibs games, he gives Hibs 75% more yellow cards than the opposition.
After Hibs, the next worst 'sufferers' are Killie. In Killie games Thomson gives Killie 27% more cards than the opposition.
In Hearts games, Thomson gives the opposition 24% more yellow cards than Hearts.

On average, Thomson awards 0.13 pens per game to all other teams, and 0.06 per game to Hibs
(i.e. he is half as likely to award Hibs a penalty as any other team)

On average, in Thomson awards 0.10 penalties against other teams and 0.28 against Hibs
(i.e. he is three times more likely to give a penalty against Hibs than any other team.

If I plot any of these numbers on a graph, there will be a fairly steady linear progression, with Hibs as a complete outrider on every single one

These stats back up everything that Hibs fans have been saying about Thomson over the last 3 years and should be fired off to the press to see what they make of them. Would be interesting to know if these are the most extreme stats by any ref on any club !! If that was the case, then it would be damning evidence of Thomson's bias and something he should be grilled about at Hampden. The problem is they are also embarrassing to the SFA who should be monitoring these stats - like doping.

Does the SFA, Hibs or Thomson monitor these statistics ? They are incredibly revealing esp when combined with the anecdotal evidence we all see when this guy takes charge of a Hibs game. Incompetence cannot explain them away.

[Kato]

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I don't need stats to prove anything. I have seen time and time again that he is a cheating *******.

Same here. The statistics are backing up what we have seen over the years though.

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It would seem those stats are pretty illusive.

I can see what the guy is saying, stats can be skewed and weighted to show a certain result. However that's usually done when presenting sweeping generalised stats, with huge numbers involved.

In this case the stats are very specific, aimed to cover a narrow range of important aspects and seem to be revealing that CT is indeed a cheating bar-steward of the highest order.


Still think a few people are getting side-tracked into the "he's a jambo" thing. There is no proof he's a jambo and I've never thought he was. He just doesn't like us and displays that dislike time and again.

[Smartie]

Remember this one?

http://youtu.be/2tvewlR39Mc

I kind of get off on the idea that there may be a psychotic, furious Bosnian out there willing to tear his limbs off.

I don't think a "top" referee can put in as many horrific performance as he has without questions being asked as to his impartiality.

I used to reckon he was just a honking ref, but we've seen it too often now. And it's not just in games involving us. And it's not purely against us - remember Skacel's "goal" for Utd last season was disallowed (although that was a tough one to call).

I reckon he does what he does in our games because he hates us - not necessarily because he's a Jambo but for whatever reason that's what he does. I don't know if the big European games are sheer incompetence or corruption but there's something not right about him.

And FWIW I hate the pointless and endless moaning about referees in general. I think that things do actually "even themselves out". What's the point in watching it if you don't believe that? Managers on a Saturday night spend way too much time moaning about referees "costing them" with single decisions when team-selection etc and poor decisions by players have way larger bearings on outcomes. I don't think that we're hard done by by referees in general although it may seem a bit like we're down on our luck at the moment. The "Freeland" game and there was one a few weeks ago that spring to mind as poor but in general I think we do ok.

There's something not right about Thomson though.

[JimBHibees]

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Same here. The statistics are backing up what we have seen over the years though.



I can see what the guy is saying, stats can be skewed and weighted to show a certain result. However that's usually done when presenting sweeping generalised stats, with huge numbers involved.

In this case the stats are very specific, aimed to cover a narrow range of important aspects and seem to be revealing that CT is indeed a cheating bar-steward of the highest order.


Still think a few people are getting side-tracked into the "he's a jambo" thing. There is no proof he's a jambo and I've never thought he was. He just doesn't like us and displays that dislike time and again.

Agree with that personally dont care if he is a jambo or not though he didnt look like he was trying to get out of that photo with the school kids.

As you say to me he has been doing us over for years and these stats completely back that up.

[Onion]

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Agree with that personally dont care if he is a jambo or not though he didnt look like he was trying to get out of that photo with the school kids.

As you say to me he has been doing us over for years and these stats completely back that up.

Someone should combine that photo with a summary of his Hibs stats and post it off to the SFA.

Let's face it, nothing is going to change with this chump, it is up to the Hibs fans to take charge of the situation and make it impossible or intolerable for him to ref any more Hibs games in future. We are the only one's who can stop him doing more damage.

[ehf]

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Remember this one?

http://youtu.be/2tvewlR39Mc

I kind of get off on the idea that there may be a psychotic, furious Bosnian out there willing to tear his limbs off.

I don't think a "top" referee can put in as many horrific performance as he has without questions being asked as to his impartiality.

I used to reckon he was just a honking ref, but we've seen it too often now. And it's not just in games involving us. And it's not purely against us - remember Skacel's "goal" for Utd last season was disallowed (although that was a tough one to call).

I reckon he does what he does in our games because he hates us - not necessarily because he's a Jambo but for whatever reason that's what he does. I don't know if the big European games are sheer incompetence or corruption but there's something not right about him.

And FWIW I hate the pointless and endless moaning about referees in general. I think that things do actually "even themselves out". What's the point in watching it if you don't believe that? Managers on a Saturday night spend way too much time moaning about referees "costing them" with single decisions when team-selection etc and poor decisions by players have way larger bearings on outcomes. I don't think that we're hard done by by referees in general although it may seem a bit like we're down on our luck at the moment. The "Freeland" game and there was one a few weeks ago that spring to mind as poor but in general I think we do ok.

There's something not right about Thomson though.

Correct; he just can't help himself. You can see from his body language that he is just itching for the chance to give decisions against us.

I've seen a few dodgy refs in my time (going back to Bobby Davidson in the 70s) but never anything like this muppet. Utterly detestable and astonishing than he gets away with it time and again.

[Kato]

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(going back to Bobby Davidson in the 70s)

A total walloper.

Back then I reckon the OF "won" dodgy decisions as refs were just plain scared of the repercussions. The press used to refer to Rangers' "charisma" winning them penalties back in the 50's.

CT has a whole different attitude though.

[Nailrod]

Just to keep the paranoia pot boiling, in the 6 derby games that Thomson has reffed:

He has given 20 yellow cards to Hibs and 11 to Hearts (That's an average of 3.22 to Hibs)
He has given 1 double yellow to Hibs and none to Hearts (Oops. The average just became 3.66 yellows to Hibs)
He has given 1 straight red to Hibs and none to Hearts
He has given no penalties to Hibs and 1 to Hearts

He has never given more cards to Hearts in any of the games he has reffed...

[tomf]

Being retired, I have some time on my hands and I decided to collate a lot of the statistics and comments that people have posted on this thread. I am considering turning it into a document which I could send to the footballing authorities or the media or both if anyone thought it would be useful. I am careful to note that there may be a big difference beween what can be said on a thread and what can be printed in a newspaper for mass consumption, especially in the case of a person's integrity and professional reputation. Basically, I can't afford to get sued; but neither do I think the statistics can be ignored. In the document I would like to quote other posters comments and the statistics (and their sources) so I imagine I would requre your permission. I guess that I may even have to identify people. I wouldn't want to take credit for other people's endeavour nor would I wish to mis-represent anyone although I would also need to edit comments in order to make it as coherent as possible and to provide clarity.

I imagine that all the contributors would need to be happy with the document and any actions. If required, I can provide a draft document, which I have already completed, and would welcome any thoughts, advice or guidance on the content or what, if anything, we might do with it...or is this just a really daft idea?

I am genuinely unsure about how to proceed and I can completely understand why any club would be reluctant to make a formal complaint against a match official but if this situation goes on I can't see Craig Thomson changing his ways...or his profession. You just need to consider that he could be invoved in appointing and training the next generaion of referees.

[NAE NOOKIE]

On the paranoia side of things I dont think thats a charge which can be levelled at us as a support in general. I have never heard any Hibby say all refs are out to get us ..... just this particular one.

Paranoia or not the stats are building up against this guy. With that as a background it is significant that he chose the biggest game possible to make his biggest 'mistakes'

I have never watched any highlights or replay in full of the 2012 cup final, for obvious reasons, but I must admit I am quite curious to give it a go now with as open a mind as possible to see if his performance is as bad as I remember it.

[matty_f]

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On the paranoia side of things I dont think thats a charge which can be levelled at us as a support in general. I have never heard any Hibby say all refs are out to get us ..... just this particular one.

Paranoia or not the stats are building up against this guy. With that as a background it is significant that he chose the biggest game possible to make his biggest 'mistakes'

I have never watched any highlights or replay in full of the 2012 cup final, for obvious reasons, but I must admit I am quite curious to give it a go now with as open a mind as possible to see if his performance is as bad as I remember it.

Have any of the statisticians posting up their analysis (and very welcome it is, too, by the way) done the same for other referees and clubs?

I'm curious if we are unique in being the only club to be on the wrong end of one referee, or if the stats show, for example, that Bobby Madden hates Dundee United and has them as the least/most likely to... in every category?

My gut feeling is that the trend you see with Thomson v Hibs would not be replicated in analysis of any other club v any other referee. That, IMHO, adds further weight to the argument that Thomson cheats us. Conversely, if there are other clubs that stick out like a sore thumb with a referee then maybe it's not that much of an anomaly and it might earn Thomson a little credibility back.

[tomf]

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I've checked out Thomson's full stats on the website listed by Golden Fleece. Taking all his games involving all the current SPL plus the old Rangers.

On average, Thomson awards 1.70 yellows per game (excludes Hibs, includes double-yellows)
On average, Thomson gives Hibs 2.41 yellows per game
He gives Hibs 42% more yellows than his average

On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game
On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game
He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average

In Hibs games, he gives Hibs 75% more yellow cards than the opposition.
After Hibs, the next worst 'sufferers' are Killie. In Killie games Thomson gives Killie 27% more cards than the opposition.
In Hearts games, Thomson gives the opposition 24% more yellow cards than Hearts.

On average, Thomson awards 0.13 pens per game to all other teams, and 0.06 per game to Hibs
(i.e. he is half as likely to award Hibs a penalty as any other team)

On average, in Thomson awards 0.10 penalties against other teams and 0.28 against Hibs
(i.e. he is three times more likely to give a penalty against Hibs than any other team.

If I plot any of these numbers on a graph, there will be a fairly steady linear progression, with Hibs as a complete outrider on every single one

I am compiling a document in order to take this matter further and I would like to include the statistics above but I am confused by the following "On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game / On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game / He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average"

Who are "the opposition" in the first line? Is it Hearts opposition or am I reading this all wrong? The second line is clear but the conclusion doesn't make sense if the opposition aren't being idenified in the first line to put the statistics in context.

Can you clarify this point please? I would really apprecie it.

[Jack Hackett]

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I am compiling a document in order to take this matter further and I would like to include the statistics above but I am confused by the following "On average, Thomson awards 1.90 yellows against the opposition per game / On average, Thomson awards 1.38 yellows against Hibs opposition per game / He gives Hibs opposition 38% fewer yellows than average"

Who are "the opposition" in the first line? Is it Hearts opposition or am I reading this all wrong? The second line is clear but the conclusion doesn't make sense if the opposition aren't being idenified in the first line to put the statistics in context.

Can you clarify this point please? I would really apprecie it.

As usual, once people have had a wee moan up, this subject fades into the background.....until he screws us again. I applaud your efforts to compile what will hopefully be a succinct and damning indictment of the biased behaviour towards our club...and based on the figures given by those who have taken the time to research, the evidence will be undeniable. We need to make our concerns heard, and loudly enough that the media take notice and broadcast it to a wider audience.