2010 Derby (Horsey one!)

**vein** · 03-06-2010 07:56 PM

For the 3rd year in a row I'm posting up a system to find the winner of the Derby, its worked for me 4 years in a row now

System is below.....

1. Take the first 6 in the betting (if a two or more are 6th equal, include them all)

2. Last three form figures must be one of the following.
111, 121, 011, 11 (two runs in career), 112, 311, 21 (two runs in career), 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131.

Completing the second step should take a few out of the equation.

Next 5 steps are to help highlight the best horse(s) from the remaining selections.

3. Horse should have won at 7f or more as a two year old.

4. Potential winner is hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning maiden unless in group or listed event.

5. Excluding Group or Listed races the potential winner should have favouable form comments in their last two year old race, ie 'won easily' or 'soon clear', etc.

6. If they ran before first week in Aug as 2 year old most potential winners would have been placed in first 4 of a group race as a 2 year old.

7. If debut was after June as 2 year old a potential winner may have had their first win on either straight course at Newmarket or straight course at Newbury.

Current first six in betting are....

Jan Vermeer 2/1
Workforce 9/2
Midas Touch 6/1
Bullet Train 7/1
Rewilding 7/1
Azmeel 11/1

Step 2 takes 3 out the eqaution and leave Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch and Bullet Train. All 3 satisfy point 3, Jan Vermeer is the only one that point 4 applies to and he passes.

For point 5 Midas Touch won easily in a maiden worth 8K, Bullet train Ran on and won by a short head in a maiden worth 3.5K and Jan Vermeer 'demolished' a useful field in a 143K group 1 race.

Point 6 doesnt apply to any of them and none of them satisfy point 7.

After listing out all of the above I'm still not sure which of the 3 I'll go for! It looks like Jan Vermeer has the most class but I like the look of Bullet Train, I'll be posting my bet once I've decided!

Last couple of threads below....

2008

2009