Paddy power puzzle

[phoenixfire]

Just been looking at the PL odds , Hearts are 7/4 to finish 3rd while we are
7/2 yet Hearts are 50-1 to be relegated yet we are 66-1 seems a but of a contradiction

[Killiehibbie]

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Just been looking at the PL odds , Hearts are 7/4 to finish 3rd while we are
7/2 yet Hearts are 50-1 to be relegated yet we are 66-1 seems a but of a contradiction

It would seem they reckon hearts are more of a boom or bust proposition.

[Mikey]

I think a few folk on here put a bit of cash on the yams to go down and that will have affected the price.

They'll be a lot closer to 12th than 3rd, that's for sure

[phoenixfire]

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It would seem they reckon hearts are more of a boom or bust proposition.

AH, Paddy Power knows something the rest of us have suspected for some time

[Woody70x2]

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Just been looking at the PL odds , Hearts are 7/4 to finish 3rd while we are
7/2 yet Hearts are 50-1 to be relegated yet we are 66-1 seems a but of a contradiction

I am not sure why you are confused... basically says Hearts are more likely to finish third than us and less likely to be relegated than us. Given league finishes over the past number of seasons, I think it is a pretty fair assessment.

Anyway, I am off to the bookies to have a slice of this 50/1 bet!

[Killiehibbie]

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I am not sure why you are confused... basically says Hearts are more likely to finish third than us and less likely to be relegated than us. Given league finishes over the past number of seasons, I think it is a pretty fair assessment.

Anyway, I am off to the bookies to have a slice of this 50/1 bet!

So if PP agreed with you hearts would be a longer price than us to be relegated but they're not hence the op's confusion.

[phoenixfire]

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I am not sure why you are confused... basically says Hearts are more likely to finish third than us and less likely to be relegated than us. Given league finishes over the past number of seasons, I think it is a pretty fair assessment.

Anyway, I am off to the bookies to have a slice of this 50/1 bet!

Given the amount of comings and goings at Er and PBS I would think last seasons positions would have little bearing on this seasons positions

[CallumLaidlaw]

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I think a few folk on here put a bit of cash on the yams to go down and that will have affected the price.

They'll be a lot closer to 12th than 3rd, that's for sure

To be honest, I still expect Hearts to be top 6 (just).
Over the course of the season, they will grind out a fair few 1-0 wins, and I would expect them to finish above St. Mirren, Hamilton, St. Johnstone, Falkirk and Killie (they will likely lose Kyle in Jan), as in Driver, Wallace, Thomson, and Obua, they have enough to ensure that.
3rd-7th will be between us, Dundee U, Aberdeen, Motherwell and Hearts.

Still love to see them go down tho

[Sas_The_Hibby]

It suggests to me that Paddy Power think Hibs are more predictable as a mid table team, whereas Hearts are less predictable and it could go either way for them (though 50/1 is still pretty long odds - sorry to be party pooper! ). Finishing third and being relegated are two separate propositions, though not unconnected, I realise.

I also wonder, too, if Bookies always have the time or resources to think through all the odds, properly. Was there not some guy who made quite a lot of money betting on Scottish 2nd and 3rd division matches because bookies didn't spend much time carefully considering form, as so little money was generally placed on these games?

[Killiehibbie]

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It suggests to me that Paddy Power think Hibs are more predictable as a mid table team, whereas Hearts are less predictable and it could go either way for them (though 50/1 is still pretty long odds - sorry to be party pooper! ). Finishing third and being relegated are two separate propositions, though not unconnected, I realise.

I also wonder, too, if Bookies always have the time or resources to think through all the odds, properly. Was there not some guy who made quite a lot of money betting on Scottish 2nd and 3rd division matches because bookies didn't spend much time carefully considering form, as so little money was generally placed on these games?

There are quite a few guys better at pricing up lower leagues than the bookies. The hardest bit is getting on before the bookies correct the prices.