Scotland permutations (merged)

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

A draw takes us to 11 points.

In group 1, Hungary and Sweden can reach 10 points and 9 points respectively when you take 6 points from each team for their 2 wins against bottom team Malta.

Group Standings


Qualifying Rules

We should qualify by 1 point with a draw.

[Mikey]

I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

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I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?

No, Norway will finish 1 point behind us even if we win.

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

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No, we need divine interventiion. and I don't mean Sidney.

I am a man of science.

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

Hungary still have to play three more games, non against Malta (2 v Portgual, 1 v Denmark). Since they already have 7 points from their games (taking away the points against Malta), they can still achieve 16 points.

Scotland will have to beat Holland to have any chance of finishing one of the best runners ups.

[kevinc]

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I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?

Both Norway & Macedonia can finish above us if we don't get at least a point from Holland.

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

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Hungary still have to play three more games, non against Malta (2 v Portgual, 1 v Denmark). Since they already have 7 points from their games (taking away the points against Malta), they can still achieve 16 points.

Scotland will have to beat Holland to have any chance of finishing one of the best runners ups.

Aye you're right.

I've succumbed to Yamenomics.

[Frazerbob]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

[Sir David Gray]

This is how the second placed teams are ranked after all of today's matches.

1. Russia-12 points from 5 matches
2. Croatia-11 points from 6 matches
3. France-11 points from 6 matches
4. Greece-10 points from 6 matches
5. Ireland-10 points from 6 matches
6. Scotland-10 points from 7 matches
7. Bosnia-9 points from 5 matches
8. N. Ireland-8 points from 6 matches
9. Hungary-7 points from 5 matches

There's still far too many permutations to be able to make any kind of solid predictions as to what may or may not happen. However, I would think that the country whose results we need to pay closest attention to, is Northern Ireland.

If we win on Wednesday, Northern Ireland would have to win their last 2 matches to overtake us.

If we don't win on Wednesday, it's basically curtains.

[Removed]

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Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

Time to open another beer. It'll all be academic after Wednesday.

[iwasthere1972]

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Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

I spent the last 15 minutes doing the reckoning compared with Northern Ireland's group because I thought that was the group we were now looking at if we were to qualify. I didn't get as far as starting a new thread and deleted what I had.

I can't be bothered doing the sums but if the Czech Rep and N. Ireland draw their game and N. Ireland lose to Slovakia then maybe just a draw against Holland would be enough. I'm basing this theory on other "crucial" matches in N. Ireland's group to be draws. Obviously we would want Slovakia to win all their remaining games.

I've probably made a pigs ear of my calculations because I haven't sat down and looked at them too closely as time is getting on and I have a bit footie to catch up with on the telly.

C'mon the Jocks.

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

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Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't...

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

[Frazerbob]

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Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't...

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

Don't think so, straight forward draw IIRC.

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

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Don't think so, straight forward draw IIRC.

Fair enough. I had this thought from the last time Scotland were in the play offs when we played England it was seeded.

If we manage to get into the play offs then anything would be a bonus after that IMO.

[bringbackjoeT!!]

I think the Hungary, Portugal group is the one we could well beat even with a draw on wednesday. Hungary still have to play Portugal twice and Denmark (leaders) hopefully dont lose against Sweden we should be OK

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

As has been pointed out on another thread the following results

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Unless the Vodka has really gone to my heid Along with a Scotland win against the Dutch would see Scotland qualify as one of the 2nd best teams. Probably our best bet tbh.

[Green Man]

This is all far too confusing

[Pete]

This is far too complicated...I still don't have a bloody clue what's going on.

The most important men at the holland game will probably be the three mathematics professors in the Scotland dug-out.

[Removed]

I really don't know why you are all getting your knickers in a twist with all the hypothetical stuff. We all know the script by now.

[Sir David Gray]

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As has been pointed out on another thread the following results

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Unless the Vodka has really gone to my heid Along with a Scotland win against the Dutch would see Scotland qualify as one of the 2nd best teams. Probably our best bet tbh.

I don't think I would put any money on it happening but it is still possible. I think we will know much more on Wednesday night.

I think the Czech Republic might be contenders for that second spot in their group. They have 3 home games in a row coming up and if they win them all and take 2nd place, they will go to 18 points, which will be reduced to 12 points as they will have beaten San Marino twice.

Obviously if we beat Holland then that will be enough to take us above them.

[hibee_nation]

Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen.

[iwasthere1972]

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Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen.

Yep that's possible only in the event that Norway and Macedonia draw and a war breaks out in one of the countries that have qualified for the play offs.

Simples.

[PISTOL1875]

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Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't...

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

The Dutch will be up for it.. They will want to qualify with maximum points and send a message to everybody else...

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

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The Dutch will be up for it.. They will want to qualify with maximum points and send a message to everybody else...

Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden...

[iwasthere1972]

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Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden...

No McFadden this time around but agree the team (and the tartan army) will be well up for the challenge.

[PISTOL1875]

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Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden...

I am hoping that we will get a result as well but I think it'll be a bridge to far for us......

[Pete]

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I really don't know why you are all getting your knickers in a twist with all the hypothetical stuff. We all know the script by now.

I think we'll beat Holland...only to lose to some team we should beat on paper in the play-offs.

"Glorious failure" should be embroidered somewhere on the shirt. At least we'll know what level the bar is at!

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

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I don't think I would put any money on it happening but it is still possible. I think we will know much more on Wednesday night.

I think the Czech Republic might be contenders for that second spot in their group. They have 3 home games in a row coming up and if they win them all and take 2nd place, they will go to 18 points, which will be reduced to 12 points as they will have beaten San Marino twice.

Obviously if we beat Holland then that will be enough to take us above them.

It is dependent on Scotland beating the Dutch. Call me daft, but I can see Scotland doing just that.

it will ultimately depend on other results in the end though.

[Hibercelona]

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It is ALL dependent on Scotland beating the Dutch. Call me daft, but I can see Scotland doing just that.

it will depend on other results in the end though.

If its not Scotland that lets us down, it will be the results.... or vice versa.

There will always be something.

[Speedy]

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Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen.

I may have got this wrong but here's my effort at it.

9th September

Norway v Macedonia draw
Slovenia(12) v Poland(12) draw
Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland(14)
Czech Republic(12) to beat San Marino(doesn't matter)

10th October

Slovakia to beat Slovenia(12)
Czech Republic(13) v Poland(13) draw

14th October

Czech Republic(14) v Northern Ireland(15) draw
Slovakia to win/draw v Poland(14)
Slovenia(15) to beat San Marino(doesn't matter again but don't want people accusing me of being unrealistic)

Anyone fancy an accumulator?

There is probably a similar miracle available to us in the Portugal group as well.

Edit: I've added a running points total for the teams involved(not including the 6 points to be taken off). We also have much worse GD than all of these teams.