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Potential to shut down football? Surely massively populated events would have a potentially massive risk of spreading the virus?
Can see the Euros being postponed especially with so many different cities hosting them. Hopefully there’s a cure found very soon.
Should be named US Coronavirus, since it seems highly likely they have launched a bio attack on China for geo political reasons.
Bloody snowflake generation. Back in the day you couldn't consider yourself a real man unless you died from Spanish Flu, TB or Smallpox. What a bunch of pansies we have become.
China wouldn’t let that happen without doing anything or keeping quiet though. There would at least be submarines kicking about Singapore. Anyway back to football, good chance of games and tournaments being called off?Quote:
Originally Posted by scooby
Highly likely yet it's not the narrative that the West-hating Chinese are pushing? I doubt it.Quote:
Originally Posted by scooby
I think people are underestimating it to be honest. The media are classing it as "just another flu", but based on the current statistics the mortality rate is already 25 times higher, with a huge amount of people still in critical condition. And that's if we are to believe the numbers coming from the Chinese government. Their reaction to the outbreak suggests it's not to be taken lightly.
It'll have blown over and been sorted by then.
Will be a mere footnote by May.
1,000 deaths out of 40,000 cases is hardly a global disastrophe.
I’m not calling for games to be cancelled but for the reasons you’ve stated above I think there’s a real risk soon. All it will take is for the first few deaths to happen in the uk and everyone will go nuts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Especially when the Jihadis get themselves infected and go about coughing at everyone on their journey to paradise 😂😂😂
I wasn't being entirely serious.Quote:
Originally Posted by 90+2
Yeah I know you weren’t, that’s why I made a joke out it, but for reasons you pointed out it’s a realistic possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
There are a lot of Chinese students in Edinburgh, who won't be going home anytime soon.
Terrible situation
Blown over 😁😁Quote:
Originally Posted by Onceinawhile
I don’t think it will be. There’s no realistic vaccination against the antibody yet. It’s usually media rubbish but it’s a lot worse than has been portrayed so far in terms of finding a cure.
Strange post. If Jihadis wanted to take people out I'm sure they'd use something more sinister than a respiratory virus that the majority of people have no more than mild symptoms.Quote:
Originally Posted by 90+2
This thing has a current mortality rate of 0.16% outside Wuhan , suggesting the vast majority of people who receive adequate medical care survive. I suspect it's current mortality rate is just due to the sheer volume of people in Wuhan impacted.
Don't get me wrong it's a concern but suggesting it's going to be weaponized is pretty odd.
See they wee smiley faces? It was kind of implying I was kidding on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Since90+2
Same in York. One student has been confirmed as having the virus.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingPat4
I think it's pretty hard to draw any real conclusions about the mortality rate outside of China at the moment. Small sample size coupled with the fact that it generally takes a longish time to kill. No doubt the mortality rate will be lower in the West though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Since90+2
Why are the Jihadis goin' to Darkheid?Quote:
Originally Posted by 90+2
My My My Corona
The economic impact might end up being bigger than the damage caused by the virus. China has pretty much shut down according to a guy on the radio this morning. Only essential supermarkets allowed to open and everyone staying indoors.
If that lasts much longer then it’s unlikely the global economy can avoid recession.
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It's true. What happens in China seems increasingly to be the determining factor in the daily ups and downs of the markets.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Normally it's trade skirmishes with the US but this is something else.
Just as well weve not left the European....Doh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Quote:
Originally Posted by scooby
WTAF?
Was it the same elite government unit that faked the moon landings, set up 9/11 and serves our lizard overlords?
I’m starting to wonder if we’ll only get a true picture of how bad the stats are during the period of spread internationally. I felt fairly relaxed a week ago with the stats we were seeing but today I’m reading that of the 45 in Singapore hospitals with the virus, 7 of those are in a serious condition in intensive care. 15% is a pretty scary number. I know it’s a small sample size but enough to highlight how dangerous the virus can be and shouldn’t yet be dismissed as just another new flu strain. Singapore has wonderful medical facilities but it’s easy to see how even those would struggle with a much larger outbreak if 15% needed intensive care. Frightening to think how some nations around Asia and the world without the infrastructure in place to start with would manage.
Every office block and every school have temp checks at the entrance to check every individuals temp before they are allowed to enter the building. Large gatherings are advised against so a lot of these are being cancelled. Working from home and splitting staff between main office and DR site is underway. To go back to the OP point, if this was to continue spreading and doesn’t start to die off before the Euros then there is every chance the authorities would need to take action.
I wonder if people will contact the ticket office and ask to move seats? 😜Quote:
Originally Posted by SRHibs
I play golf with a group which includes doctors both retired and employed.
I asked one of the guys still working if he'd had much involvement with the Coronavirus.
He said no, but there had been loads of emails etc as you'd expect.
He went on to say that the current instruction (this was last Wednesday) was that if someone presented with what might be the virus, they were to be locked in a cupboard and public health contracted.
I laughed, but he said, "No, seriously, that's the instruction".
It's crazy because the symptoms can be as little as coughs and sniffles. It's hard enough to get folk to call the doctor when their symptoms are severe.
Mrs R lectures at York University where there's a huge Chinese community. If she so much as sneezes, I'm calling the nuclear suits!
I was over in Paris for the day yesterday for the rugby and on my retrn was surprised to see a fairly busy China Eastern flight to Shanghai boarding at CDG a few gates away from the Edinburgh flight. Irrespective of the woes back home and potential economic implications, it wasn't stopping a good number of the passengers spending the big bucks at Burberry, Gucci etc before boarding.Quote:
Originally Posted by KingPat4
Google and Apple have just closed their Chinese factories until further notice.
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I see a doctors surgery in Brighton has been closed due to this, one of the team has been found to have contracted it. (BBC news)
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Quite a few English teachers in China and Vietnam have been caught out financially, they blew the savings over the holidays expecting to be back in work by now, only to find the schools are shut for the foreseeable future.
A good reminder to always have an emergency fund.
My sons an English teacher in Shanghai, he's working from home via video link.Quote:
Originally Posted by CloudSquall
Yeah I was reading on the flip side online teachers are experiencing a big boom due to kids having to stay at home.Quote:
Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs
🤣Quote:
Originally Posted by One Day Soon
Lets see if this draws in the forum donut “Slavers”, will be right up their street.
Burberry face-masks. Why didn't I think of that?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamesie
How many more deaths before it becomes a pandemic?
Has it reached all parts of the world?Quote:
Originally Posted by Cataplana
I don't know, I was interested in the criteria for a pandemic. I would be surprised if it is even at pandemic levels in China so far.Quote:
Originally Posted by Killiehibbie
WHO seem to be vague on it.
https://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/pandemic/en/
The best I can come up with is "worldwide transmission."
Interesting paper here, it seems it is very hard to define a pandemic.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3127276/
"It is tempting to surmise that the complicated pandemic definitions used by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States of America involved severity1,10 in a deliberate attempt to garner political attention and financial support for pandemic preparednes."
An epidemic becomes a pandemic once it goes global or something along those lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cataplana
Yeah, it's not entirely clear. If it means people in different countries having it simultaneously we are at the pandemic stage.Quote:
Originally Posted by Killiehibbie
I think it should be based on the rate of increase of cases as that would give a clearer indication of how infectious it is.
I'm curious as to how *****lia, which has a massive land border along with extensive rail and air links with China, hasn't had a single case.
Not very clear at all. Malaria fits a few definitions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cataplana
https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/****...avirus-impact/Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Good prevention, luck or a natural immunity?
I don't want to sound ignorant, but maybe their health system is a bit behind and it's harder for cases to be identified and reported to make it into the statistics?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Same goes for the large amounts of untouched areas on the global map in Africa, South America, and eastern Europe.
Surely can't be a coincidence that it's generally the more developed countries which are reporting incidents of the disease. :dunno:
I thought the prevalence of the disease spreading to more developed countries could be put down down to citizens of such countries being more likely to travel to the region when compared to developing nations. The map linked below shows the sheer volume of travel between Europe and North America and China when compared to Africa and South America:Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/11/coron...-day-12218901/
I'm sure there are various factors at play as to why the disease is spreading to and/or being identified in some areas more than others though.
If the UK wasn't looking for the disease, I doubt if we would have any reported cases. As it is, someone showing simplistic symptoms which could just as easily be a reflection of the monitoring equipment, are being reported as potential casesQuote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
One of the main tests is temperature. I have been told by a very knowledgeable person, that the tympanic thermometers that are widely used are as much use as a random number generator.
They are very susceptible to environmental conditions, and the skill of the person using them. It is really internal temperature, such as in the throat that is a true reading - I was told.
Bear in mind raised temperature is indicative of many conditions.
The swear filter has helped keep them safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
:greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Fact. Also zero confirmed cases in S****horpe.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
That's maybe a more plausible reason actually!Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
Maybe a bit of both/all, but the travel routes between developed counntries probably accounts for it.
It still looks like there will be pain in Spain though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Future17
I think it likely is a bit of both however there won’t be a country in Asia that doesn’t have a case, they just don’t know it. Don’t have a process to hunt it out, don’t want to hunt it out. Indonesia with a huge population of 270m doesn’t have one confirmed case?!?! Absolutely impossible. Doesn’t have the medical facilities or infrastructure to cope when it does kick off. I fear for places like Indo.Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...s-by-a-quarter
Every cloud.
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See that they've postponed some games in Serie A this weekend because of it.
I saw somewhere that Chinese car sales were down 92% last month, can't be long until there is a chain reaction in the economic world.
Seems like one of the Italian doctors who was treating people has decided to go on holiday to Tenerife. After spending 6 days there he has now been diagnosed with the disease. Wonder how many people he has been in contact with in the hotel, restaurants, bars and the plane. Must be 100s. We are all Donald Ducked.
It's more than likely going to rip through the whole world within 12 months. It's the old and sick that will bare the brunt of it. Current statistics are showing it will have between a 1.3% and 14.8% mortality rate amongst the over 50's. Those statistics might improve as it starts to effect more medically advanced countries.Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
The Iranian deputy health minister has tested positive . Looks like its alot worse in Iran than theyre letting on
Thing is, this isn't some town or even city where they can try to contain it. 95% of the people he's been in contact with will be flying out of the island and a good amount of them will already have left. Think about the air quality on a plane alone. Even if just 10 people go on 10 flights with it..............and most of them won't even know yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
:agree:Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...357dfb5dda.jpg
Dinnae worry hibbies, we’re all safe.
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I was due to take the family to Tenerife for a week at Easter and I cancelled it yesterday for a full refund. Feeling pretty chuffed with myself today. I wasn’t worried about catching it as such, just don’t fancy getting quarantined in a hotel for a few weeks not being able to fly home.Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
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I've not had a holiday for 3 years so I'm hoping to be able to catch a bargain to get there in the first place and end up quarantined for a few bonus weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
:faf: Stealing that Richard.Quote:
Originally Posted by HiBremian
:greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
I was just thinking the same thing, mon the cheap flights :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
Initially been quarantined in a hotel sounds great until you realise its actually your hotel room. Sack that, much rather be at home with all my gadgets if I've to stayed locked up thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
It's pretty much what I do on holiday. If I sit by the pool, the missus expects me to talk to her.Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
Get in! 🍺Quote:
Originally Posted by HiBremian
That's the good doctors wife been confirmed as having it so now you got to factor everyone she's been around in the hotel.
Apparently he was unwell for a few days before getting checked out. What a phanny.
I have cancelled a holiday to Malta at the end of April. Was travelling alone so no one is let down apart from myself.
I am heading to Devon next week, not too bothered about the train but not too keen on the tube across London, I always hate that anyway, will be travelling at the quietest times or may even walk from Kingsx to Paddington
Heading to Fuerteventura next week. It's a case of Keep Calm and Carry On for me. I hope my immune system is up to the job if I get it.
Just driven to Aberdeen and I have to say the risks in that journey worry me more. (The road journey, not being in Aberdeen.)
I read an article yesterday saying that it’s likely that 70% of the worlds population is now likely to contract it. It’s now moved past the stage where it can be contained. Luckily relatively few people die from it and it likely to be less deadly than the flu is each year (1500-2000 deaths a day through flu season).
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Is there a chance the warmer weather could impact the viruses ability to survive? Flu is generally a winter illness and it's suggested humidity and increased time spent in close proximity indoors in winter plays a part in that. Could this see something similar happen?
The hope, from what I heard on radio, is that warmer weather will reduce its impact. The problem they have is that they don't know if it will.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
I'm no expert but it seems less likely given it originated in China where it is already fairly mild. :dunno:Quote:
Originally Posted by Cataplana
I assume that's different to the strains of flu which are regularly here during the winter - coming to a fore in the cold British climate.
I was wondering what sense the statement made, when it is winter in 50% of the planet, at any given time. Maybe they were just talking about the risks in Britain.Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
It's winter in 50% of the planet, 50% of the time. When it's spring/autumn in the 2 hemispheres, it's winter nowhere!Quote:
Originally Posted by Cataplana
Also, about 90% of the world's population live in the northern hemisphere.
Ireland vs Italy rugby has now been cancelled.
:aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens
Wuhan in December / January would not be warm. Probably slightly warmer than here at that time of year but certainly not warm.Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
Have there been recovery’s made yet?
It's not fatal. From what I understand it's the frail and elderly who are most at risk - a bit like the flu but worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
????? I'm not sure about this. The guy who has it in Germany is only in his 40s and is in intensive care. Some of the people who died in China were in their 30s and 40s including the doctors. The frail and elderly might be most at risk but think any can croc it. Saw a report earlier that suggests it 40% deadlier than flu.As for temperatures. It's not exactly hot in the north of Italy in February either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
That's all I said - I'm no expert tough.Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
I didn't look much into it. I just seen it was still an issue and it's between 11-18C there this week. So it sounds like a typical Scottish spring isn't going to stop it in its tracks. :greengrinQuote:
Originally Posted by Since90+2
Does it say if the guy was in good health before he caught the virus?Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
Edit: on Tuesday evening, he was brought to the university hospital in Düsseldorf. The 47-year-old patient suffers from a pre-existing condition.
https://www.thelocal.de/20200226/two-new-coronavirus-cases-confirmed-in-germany
I saw a bit on the tv saying the eldery, very young and those with underlying health conditions are at risk because it can result in pneumonia. Underlying health conditions could be anything though. Immune deficient, asthmatics, copd etc all could be higher risksQuote:
Originally Posted by Peevemor
If you are over 60 , and particularly over 70 or 80, this virus is potentially very serious but the vast majority of people in that age range still make a full recovery or don't have serious symptoms. The last estimate I seen in that age range was a mortality rate of around 5%.
For people under the age of 40 the current mortality rate is around 0.5% which is high but it means around 199/200 people who get it in that age range either don't have serious symptoms or fully recover.
I actually suspect that the mortality rate will eventually turn out to be far lower as there are likely lots of people not being diagnosed as their symptoms are so mild they are not seeking medical treatment. Swine Flu was declared a pandemic in the early 2009 and that eventually had a mortality rate of 0.05%.
Nobody knows for sure why flu spreads more widely in winter but among the possibilities are (from wikipedia flu page):Quote:
Originally Posted by danhibees1875
- People are indoors more often during the winter, they are in close contact more often, and this promotes transmission from person to person.
- A seasonal decline in the amount of ultraviolet radiation may reduce the likelihood of the virus being damaged or killed by direct radiation damage or indirect effects (i. e. ozone concentration) increasing the probability of infection.
- Cold temperatures lead to drier air, which may dehydrate mucous membranes, preventing the body from effectively defending against respiratory virus infections.[2][3][4]
- Viruses are preserved in colder temperatures due to slower decomposition, so they linger longer on exposed surfaces (doorknobs, countertops, etc.).
- In nations where children do not go to school in the summer, there is a more pronounced beginning to flu season, coinciding with the start of public school. It is thought that the day care environment is perfect for the spread of illness.
- Vitamin D production from Ultraviolet-B in the skin changes with the seasons and affects the immune system.
Current death rates (according to a source on Twitter I haven't fact checked):
80+ - 14.8%
70-79 - 8%
60-69 - 3.6%
50-59 - 1.3%
40-49 - 0.4%
30-39 - 0.2%
9-29 - 0.2%
Under 9 - no confirmed deaths.
Obviously that's inaccurate because some of the people currently ill and not deemed recovered could still die and there are probably a lot of people walking about with minor illness who haven't been diagnosed.
Free online courses to help understanding of the virus are available here:
http://www.openculture.com/2020/02/free-courses-on-the-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-emerging-pandemic.html
I've not read them, but the sources appear to be a high calibre.
Some of the panic created by this has been ridiculous, it’s not Ebola FFS. The recovery rate is fine, like every other similar situation some people go into full blown panic mode.
I think if you're of a certain age and have cardiovascular issues or other underlying issues, then I can kind of understand people worrying about a disease that's sweeping the world and coming ever nearer. Even if you have vulnerable relatives it might feel threatening.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scouse Hibee
I get all that but it really goes beyond that with plenty of folk, who make it sound as if anyone getting it is certain to die. Had to tell a few folk today to get a ****** grip.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
If you are over 60 it currently has an estimated mortality rate of around 4% so 1 in 25 people who get it will die. It also appears to be highly contagious so I can see why people are concerned.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scouse Hibee
Although I think it will eventually turn out to have a far lower mortality rate.
I think the fear among many is the WHO have suggested we are not far from the point when it becomes an endemic virus. While something like SARS was far more deadly, it was relatively quickly contained. This is increasingly looking likely to be another virus we are going to have to deal with on an ongoing basis.Quote:
Originally Posted by Scouse Hibee
:agree: Decent explanation here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pretty Boy
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/607000/
I see that that's folk who have returned from Tenerife to the UK starting to be diagnosed with it.
And so it begins.
Only a matter of time now till Johnson's on the tellybox reminding us that this great country of ours won two world wars and that there's no need to pay too much attention to the so-called experts' warnings, as Matt Hancock is doing such a superb job of keeping us all safe.Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
Do you get a flu jab every winter?Quote:
Originally Posted by DH1875
No confirmed cases in Scotland yet,