US Election 2020

Thought I'd kick off a thread dedicated to the upcoming election across the pond.

Here's the current polling for the Democrat nominies.

National Democratic Primary:
Biden 27%
Sanders 17%
Warren 15%
Bloomberg 5%
Buttigieg 5%
Yang 5%
Steyer 4%
Booker 3%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Castro 2%
Delaney 1%
Bennet 1%
Williamson 1%
Patrick 0%

I'm personally a big fan of Andrew Yang. A massive outsider, but he's done well to get this far given the relative size of his campaign and media coverage.

Buttigieg impresses me too. His takedown of Warren over the 'wine cave' jibe made during the recent debate was absolutely brutal, well worth a watch even if you're not that bothered about the election.

Keystones in this election cycle for the Dems are:

- Recognising the issues that led to the election of Trump, not just being the 'not-Trump option.'
- Bridging the sizeable gap between the left and right of politics in the US currently.
- Not allowing Trump to win this one on the basis of cosmetic economic progress, they can't fall into a stats battle. Keep the spotlight on domestic issues, not figures.
- Heavy focus on the devastating opiates crisis plaguing the US.
- Responding to increasing public pressure to act on China's awful human rights record and recent market manipulation tactics.

I really enjoy the US election cycles. They're more theatrical and outlandish due to the root outcome of the whole event being one single job. Quite frankly I plan on enjoying the ride as best I can given the grim state of politics in the UK.

Strap in. 🇺🇸

(all IMO)

Wasn’t it Warren who attacked on the wine cave thing?
Looking at the race, the Dems are in danger or repeating the mistake Labour made here if they go for a left winger (comparatively speaking because Boris Johnson is left of centre there).



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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Wasn’t it Warren who attacked on the wine cave thing?
Looking at the race, the Dems are in danger or repeating the mistake Labour made here if they go for a left winger (comparatively speaking because Boris Johnson is left of centre there).



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Yeah it was Warren that he responded to after she made the comment. Certainly misplaced criticism from her.

I agree Ozy. I'm also really concerned that their two front runners (by a distance) are a couple of white guys who are nearly 80. That's why I'm hoping against hope for a Yang Gang uprising.

I'd take Warren over the two of them too if we're being more pragmatic about it.

The only BAME candidate left is Yang, and as he highlights himself, it's not his people that are being subjected to the worst living standards in America. That's gotta be a huge disappointment for a substantial percentage of the most vulnerable people in American society.

I was impressed by Yang when he expressed why Trump won, explaining the reasoning behind his vote in the rust belt states.

Impressive in the video below too,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...p_elected.html


His idea of giving 1000 dollars a month to every citizen however may be too much of an easy target for the Republicans though.


To win they need someone central to bridge the gap to soft Trump voters, if they go "woke" Trump's path back to the White House cannot be easier.

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Originally Posted by CloudSquall

I was impressed by Yang when he expressed why Trump won, explaining the reasoning behind his vote in the rust belt states.

Impressive in the video below too,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...p_elected.html


His idea of giving 1000 dollars a month to every citizen however may be too much of an easy target for the Republicans though.


To win they need someone central to bridge the gap to soft Trump voters, if they go "woke" Trump's path back to the White House cannot be easier.

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Totally agree. Trump has a very solid base of about 40% and there is zero chance of him losing that now given what they already put up with from him.
He is the incumbent and the economy is good. Any sign of someone saying they will take something away from people and they will stick with the idiot they know.
People are more protective of what they have than impressed with what they might get. The offer of universal healthcare seems like total common sense to people living here but to people there being asked to give up the insurance (sometimes very hard won through labour unions) is a complete no-no.
I personally think Warren is the best candidate but I can also see how Trump beats her. She is too far to the left. Traditionally candidates tack back to the centre once the primaries are won so hopefully that’s the case with her.
Biden would be a disaster. Trump will beat him.
Don’t know enough about Yang but he needs to start making a move about now although candidates have been further behind where he is now and went on to win (John kerry 2004).


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Totally agree. Trump has a very solid base of about 40% and there is zero chance of him losing that now given what they already put up with from him.
He is the incumbent and the economy is good. Any sign of someone saying they will take something away from people and they will stick with the idiot they know.
People are more protective of what they have than impressed with what they might get. The offer of universal healthcare seems like total common sense to people living here but to people there being asked to give up the insurance (sometimes very hard won through labour unions) is a complete no-no.
I personally think Warren is the best candidate but I can also see how Trump beats her. She is too far to the left. Traditionally candidates tack back to the centre once the primaries are won so hopefully that’s the case with her.
Biden would be a disaster. Trump will beat him.
Don’t know enough about Yang but he needs to start making a move about now although candidates have been further behind where he is now and went on to win (John kerry 2004).


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Interested why you think Biden would be a disaster? He is easily the most centrist of the front runners. He makes plenty of gaffes but this will already be priced in with voters and let's face it, Trump is off the scale barking. I think Biden is the clear front runner and in a battle of old white guys will beat Trump comfortably. Either Warren or Sanders would be a much closer race. Can't see anyone outside those 3 winning the nomination.

I’m always amazed just how old the candidates can be!

I mean good on them but boy how do they find the energy at nearly 80 to go on a year long campaign?

That aside it’s an interesting race for the Democrats. Contrary to some I believe Biden could beat Trump but Warren would have no chance.

Yang is an interesting one but he’s tied himself to a few very large but rather wonky policies so not sure that was too wise.

In the end though I’m sure .net will be 95% on the ‘anyone but Trump’ side of the argument. As a poster said earlier US politics makes Johnson look like a leftie!

But even left / right aside I’m amazed anyone could vote for Trump this time around. Last time yeah, I get why some bought into his bombastic approach and ridiculous rhetoric. But this time? No way. Just one read of his twitter feed should be enough to tell you that.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

I’m always amazed just how old the candidates can be!

I mean good on them but boy how do they find the energy at nearly 80 to go on a year long campaign?

That aside it’s an interesting race for the Democrats. Contrary to some I believe Biden could beat Trump but Warren would have no chance.

Yang is an interesting one but he’s tied himself to a few very large but rather wonky policies so not sure that was too wise.

In the end though I’m sure .net will be 95% on the ‘anyone but Trump’ side of the argument. As a poster said earlier US politics makes Johnson look like a leftie!

But even left / right aside I’m amazed anyone could vote for Trump this time around. Last time yeah, I get why some bought into his bombastic approach and ridiculous rhetoric. But this time? No way. Just one read of his twitter feed should be enough to tell you that.

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If he's lost you he really has no chance. :greengrin:wink:

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

I’m always amazed just how old the candidates can be!

I mean good on them but boy how do they find the energy at nearly 80 to go on a year long campaign?

That aside it’s an interesting race for the Democrats. Contrary to some I believe Biden could beat Trump but Warren would have no chance.

Yang is an interesting one but he’s tied himself to a few very large but rather wonky policies so not sure that was too wise.

In the end though I’m sure .net will be 95% on the ‘anyone but Trump’ side of the argument. As a poster said earlier US politics makes Johnson look like a leftie!

But even left / right aside I’m amazed anyone could vote for Trump this time around. Last time yeah, I get why some bought into his bombastic approach and ridiculous rhetoric. But this time? No way. Just one read of his twitter feed should be enough to tell you that.

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To be fair, on the age thing, they are breaking new ground. Reagan was the previously oldest elected, 69 the first time and 73 the second. Trump will have beaten both by a year if he gets re-elected. Either Biden or Sanders (76 and 78) would go straight to the top of the oldie charts. Even Liz Warren is 70 but would be a couple of weeks short of the age Trump was when he won.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

If he's lost you he really has no chance. :greengrin:wink:

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Oi! Less of that ;-)

To be fair though, I’m happy to admit that while I was no fan of him, his rhetoric or divisive and dangerous electioneering there was one (small!) part of me that wondered if it was just an election thing and that on arrival in the White House he might calm down. I was curious as to what someone who had not been a life long politico might do.

I should, of course, known better!!

He was a grade A twat before but boy has he taken that to a new level as president. There is always scope to disagree with what the POTUS stands for and does but jeez Trump has absolutely trashed that office and I’m continually amazed at how he even has the remotest chance of re-election.

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Oi! Less of that ;-)

To be fair though, I’m happy to admit that while I was no fan of him, his rhetoric or divisive and dangerous electioneering there was one (small!) part of me that wondered if it was just an election thing and that on arrival in the White House he might calm down. I was curious as to what someone who had not been a life long politico might do.

I should, of course, known better!!

He was a grade A twat before but boy has he taken that to a new level as president. There is always scope to disagree with what the POTUS stands for and does but jeez Trump has absolutely trashed that office and I’m continually amazed at how he even has the remotest chance of re-election.

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I thought he had no chance of winning until Oct 2016 when I took the kids to Disneyland. I got in a taxi to travel from Disney to Universal and the driver was a black Haitian female and the whole way there she was listening to right wing talk radio. I asked what she thought of Trump and she told me she was going to vote for him because he was going to clean up Washington and she didn’t like Hilary anyway. That’s was when I realised he could win although deep down I still didn’t really believe until it happened.


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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Oi! Less of that ;-)

To be fair though, I’m happy to admit that while I was no fan of him, his rhetoric or divisive and dangerous electioneering there was one (small!) part of me that wondered if it was just an election thing and that on arrival in the White House he might calm down. I was curious as to what someone who had not been a life long politico might do.

I should, of course, known better!!

He was a grade A twat before but boy has he taken that to a new level as president. There is always scope to disagree with what the POTUS stands for and does but jeez Trump has absolutely trashed that office and I’m continually amazed at how he even has the remotest chance of re-election.

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I've learned to just put it down to the fact that I just don't get America.

I love America, I have a few relatives there. My biggest regret and bitterness in life is that I couldn't move there. Without drifting too far into depressing territory on this day of all days, I have a fair idea what opportunities exist in 21st century Scotland for my wee girl and the opportunities that exist in the USA and in spite of having worked very hard and made many sacrifices I struggle to come to terms with the fact that as a parent I will be unable to offer her the opportunities that her cousins will all have.

The 2 main things I don't like about America are the gun laws and the politics, and they are so huge that I end up going as far as to say I just don't really understand what the place is all about.

It would have been nice to have the opportunity to really learn though.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I've learned to just put it down to the fact that I just don't get America.

I love America, I have a few relatives there. My biggest regret and bitterness in life is that I couldn't move there. Without drifting too far into depressing territory on this day of all days, I have a fair idea what opportunities exist in 21st century Scotland for my wee girl and the opportunities that exist in the USA and in spite of having worked very hard and made many sacrifices I struggle to come to terms with the fact that as a parent I will be unable to offer her the opportunities that her cousins will all have.

The 2 main things I don't like about America are the gun laws and the politics, and they are so huge that I end up going as far as to say I just don't really understand what the place is all about.

It would have been nice to have the opportunity to really learn though.

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You should try Australia. It’s like America but without the gun laws. Still a bit more right wing and racist than Scotland but overall it’s a great way of life.
Plenty opportunities here as well though otherwise I wouldn’t be here.


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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Interested why you think Biden would be a disaster? He is easily the most centrist of the front runners. He makes plenty of gaffes but this will already be priced in with voters and let's face it, Trump is off the scale barking. I think Biden is the clear front runner and in a battle of old white guys will beat Trump comfortably. Either Warren or Sanders would be a much closer race. Can't see anyone outside those 3 winning the nomination.

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I can't see the American electorate voting in a president whose health issues will mean he is unlikely to be able to serve his full term in office.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I've learned to just put it down to the fact that I just don't get America.

I love America, I have a few relatives there. My biggest regret and bitterness in life is that I couldn't move there. Without drifting too far into depressing territory on this day of all days, I have a fair idea what opportunities exist in 21st century Scotland for my wee girl and the opportunities that exist in the USA and in spite of having worked very hard and made many sacrifices I struggle to come to terms with the fact that as a parent I will be unable to offer her the opportunities that her cousins will all have.

The 2 main things I don't like about America are the gun laws and the politics, and they are so huge that I end up going as far as to say I just don't really understand what the place is all about.

It would have been nice to have the opportunity to really learn though.

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Britain is well towards the top of the inequality charts compared to other western European countries but we are practically Scandinavian compared to the US. It's a fine place to live - as long as you have the money,

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Britain is well towards the top of the inequality charts compared to other western European countries but we are practically Scandinavian compared to the US. It's a fine place to live - as long as you have the money,

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Fertile territory for the likes of trump.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I thought he had no chance of winning until Oct 2016 when I took the kids to Disneyland. I got in a taxi to travel from Disney to Universal and the driver was a black Haitian female and the whole way there she was listening to right wing talk radio. I asked what she thought of Trump and she told me she was going to vote for him because he was going to clean up Washington and she didn’t like Hilary anyway. That’s was when I realised he could win although deep down I still didn’t really believe until it happened.


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That's how he got in - Clinton was pretty much universally loathed. In the same way that Johnson, whatever you think of his politics, was universally acknowledged to be a total ********, but wasn't Corbyn.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Britain is well towards the top of the inequality charts compared to other western European countries but we are practically Scandinavian compared to the US. It's a fine place to live - as long as you have the money,

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Yeah, that's the problem.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

That's how he got in - Clinton was pretty much universally loathed. In the same way that Johnson, whatever you think of his politics, was universally acknowledged to be a total ********, but wasn't Corbyn.

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This is said quite a bit, but did she not get more votes than Trumpet for POTUS? :dunno:

Looking at the list of candidates in the OP I think Trump can rest easy, unfortunately.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

This is said quite a bit, but did she not get more votes than Trumpet for POTUS? :dunno:

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She did but mainly for not being Trump. Virtually any other democrat would've won.

The US will be voting for Trump and not necessarily The Republican Party. Democrats might offer up a candidate who has no real political aspirations beyond 2020.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

She did but mainly for not being Trump. Virtually any other democrat would've won.

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Hillary was definitely a candidate with plenty of baggage, however I don't believe that Bernie would have stood a chance. In fact, I think he might have performed worse.

Always find it interesting after a politician steps down from the frontline and starts expressing themselves more openly, Clinton being one such example. Shows she was definitely overstaffed/over-advised during her campaign in 2016, which made her come across as so disingenuous and robotic.

I'd love to see auld Bernie get the Democratic nomination. A real progressive who isn't in the pockets of the big money donors.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I'd love to see auld Bernie get the Democratic nomination. A real progressive who isn't in the pockets of the big money donors.

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That'd just be an open door for a second term for Trump IMO.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I'd love to see auld Bernie get the Democratic nomination. A real progressive who isn't in the pockets of the big money donors.

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Go full socialist and Trump wins. Doesn’t mean the Democrats aren’t dumb enough to try it though.


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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

That'd just be an open door for a second term for Trump IMO.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Go full socialist and Trump wins. Doesn’t mean the Democrats aren’t dumb enough to try it though.


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Sanders is no socialist, he's an FDR New Deal liberal, on the left of the Democratic Party. His brand of left wing populism would win back those traditionally Democratic states which tipped the balance for Trump in 2016, e.g. Pennsylvania and the rest of the rust belt. Hilary Clinton's love of trickledown economics ignored those left behind by forty years of Reaganomics. Why would any working class American oppose universal healthcare? Bernie could reach those states Clinton failed to. Trump sold them a lie - he's a great salesman - but he's done nothing for working class Americans, only given massive tax cuts to the wealthiest, whilst his health care bill kicked another twenty million people off coverage.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

Sanders is no socialist, he's an FDR New Deal liberal, on the left of the Democratic Party. His brand of left wing populism would win back those traditionally Democratic states which tipped the balance for Trump in 2016, e.g. Pennsylvania and the rest of the rust belt. Hilary Clinton's love of trickledown economics ignored those left behind by forty years of Reaganomics. Why would any working class American oppose universal healthcare? Bernie could reach those states Clinton failed to. Trump sold them a lie - he's a great salesman - but he's done nothing for working class Americans, only given massive tax cuts to the wealthiest, whilst his health care bill kicked another twenty million people off coverage.

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Bill Clinton didn’t fail to win states. He and Obama won states Sanders would struggle to convince.

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

Bill Clinton didn’t fail to win states. He and Obama won states Sanders would struggle to convince.

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I meant Hilary in 2016.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

Sanders is no socialist, he's an FDR New Deal liberal, on the left of the Democratic Party. His brand of left wing populism would win back those traditionally Democratic states which tipped the balance for Trump in 2016, e.g. Pennsylvania and the rest of the rust belt. Hilary Clinton's love of trickledown economics ignored those left behind by forty years of Reaganomics. Why would any working class American oppose universal healthcare? Bernie could reach those states Clinton failed to. Trump sold them a lie - he's a great salesman - but he's done nothing for working class Americans, only given massive tax cuts to the wealthiest, whilst his health care bill kicked another twenty million people off coverage.

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I’m sure Trump will hold back on calling him a socialist, especially as Sanders calls himself that.



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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I’m sure Trump will hold back on calling him a socialist, especially as Sanders calls himself that.



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And? He is hardly Leon Trotsky.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

And? He is hardly Leon Trotsky.

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I agree but that won’t matter. It’s how he will be portrayed. He will be sold as the guy who wants to take away your medical insurance.
As far as American politics goes, he’s as far left as it gets and I don’t think they will vote for that.


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I'm preparing myself for a dreadful repeat of BoJo.

5 more years of Trump - my god - is what I'm resigned to. People are idiots and showbiz/infantile slogans will win.

Would be ecstatic to be proven wrong though.

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Originally Posted by lyonhibs

I'm preparing myself for a dreadful repeat of BoJo.

5 more years of Trump - my god - is what I'm resigned to. People are idiots and showbiz/infantile slogans will win.

Would be ecstatic to be proven wrong though.

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I’d like to think the world will start to come to its senses soon, this would be a decent place to start.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I agree but that won’t matter. It’s how he will be portrayed. He will be sold as the guy who wants to take away your medical insurance.
As far as American politics goes, he’s as far left as it gets and I don’t think they will vote for that.


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And give you free health care at the point of delivery instead, the evil commie :greengrin

Rather ironically a lot of what Sanders was saying 7 or 8 years ago on NAFTA and immigration was similiar to what Trump said in the election campaign and what won him the states around the lakes.


From what I know the American 401k savings plan is tied to stock market performance, if the economy keeps growing as it is and the stock market keeps making new highs it's going to be hard for the Democrats to get Trump out.


It's fashionable to rip on Trump, however if you are a working middle class American are you going to potentially risk the stock market and economy for a Democrat that (if not a centralist) could see markets tumble?

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Originally Posted by CloudSquall

Rather ironically a lot of what Sanders was saying 7 or 8 years ago on NAFTA and immigration was similiar to what Trump said in the election campaign and what won him the states around the lakes.


From what I know the American 401k savings plan is tied to stock market performance, if the economy keeps growing as it is and the stock market keeps making new highs it's going to be hard for the Democrats to get Trump out.


It's fashionable to rip on Trump, however if you are a working middle class American are you going to potentially risk the stock market and economy for a Democrat that (if not a centralist) could see markets tumble?

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The American economy has grown every year for 11 years though, so it was initiated by a Democrat in Obama, after a Republican oversaw their recession.

The issues with Trump are far more to do with the fact he's such a poor diplomat, the antithesis of a statesman and a volatile xenophobe. As a middle class American, I'd be embarrassed by that man running my country.

Oh and Merry Christmas everyone!! :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

And give you free health care at the point of delivery instead, the evil commie :greengrin

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I know but as I said earlier, that looks like a risk to someone who has health insurance with their job. American are suspicious of universal healthcare. They think it can’t be done. And tearing down the current system results in lots of people thinking they are losing out.


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Originally Posted by lyonhibs

I'm preparing myself for a dreadful repeat of BoJo.

5 more years of Trump - my god - is what I'm resigned to. People are idiots and showbiz/infantile slogans will win.

Would be ecstatic to be proven wrong though.

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Prepare for ecstasy! (US presidents only get 4 year terms :greengrin )

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Prepare for ecstasy! (US presidents only get 4 year terms :greengrin )

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I’m not convinced this one would go quietly if he lost an election.[emoji51]


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I’m not convinced this one would go quietly if he lost an election.[emoji51]


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Correct.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

Why would any working class American oppose universal healthcare?

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You'd be surprised.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

And give you free health care at the point of delivery instead, the evil commie :greengrin

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It's only free if you don't pay anything towards it.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I meant Hilary in 2016.

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I know. I meant that Bill and Barack tacked more to the centre that Bernie and that was how they ensured the electoral arithmetic.

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Originally Posted by Cataplana

It's only free if you don't pay anything towards it.

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The poor still deserve healthcare. Almost everybody pays national insurance at some point in life. When someone is unable to do that for a period, they still deserve the care.

And non-profit system much cheaper to run. The USA spends roughly twice its GDP on health care than the UK, France, Germany, Scandinavian countries, yet has sixty million people without any coverage. The American system is incredibly bureaucratic.

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Originally Posted by Haymaker

You'd be surprised.

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Yeah many Americans regard universal healthcare as some sort of socialist/communist ideal and is fundamentally wrong and evil.

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Originally Posted by Renfrew_Hibby

Yeah many Americans regard universal healthcare as some sort of socialist/communist ideal and is fundamentally wrong and evil.

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This is true. They've been fed that line by big business and the conservative media for decades.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Prepare for ecstasy! (US presidents only get 4 year terms :greengrin )

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:greengrin:greengrin Ahhh, 2024 let the good times roll.........

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

I’m always amazed just how old the candidates can be!

I mean good on them but boy how do they find the energy at nearly 80 to go on a year long campaign?

That aside it’s an interesting race for the Democrats. Contrary to some I believe Biden could beat Trump but Warren would have no chance.

Yang is an interesting one but he’s tied himself to a few very large but rather wonky policies so not sure that was too wise.

In the end though I’m sure .net will be 95% on the ‘anyone but Trump’ side of the argument. As a poster said earlier US politics makes Johnson look like a leftie!

But even left / right aside I’m amazed anyone could vote for Trump this time around. Last time yeah, I get why some bought into his bombastic approach and ridiculous rhetoric. But this time? No way. Just one read of his twitter feed should be enough to tell you that.

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People get entrenched, just like people are entrenched with Bolsonaro and in time Johnson. It then becomes a pride thing. We’re ****** until these clowns see out their respective times in office the worrying thing tho is less the figureheads of Trump, Bolsonaro and Johnson more those behind them enabling this mayhem.

Biden still topping most of the polls, Bernie closing in rather quickly though. Warren dropping like a stone, nearly sub 10% in some polls now, with Yang climbing from >5% to 7% recently too.

I think Sanders might nip this.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Biden still topping most of the polls, Bernie closing in rather quickly though. Warren dropping like a stone, nearly sub 10% in some polls now, with Yang climbing from >5% to 7% recently too.

I think Sanders might nip this.

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He’s the American Corbyn and only a Democrat when it suits him.

Trump will be delighted.

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Originally Posted by Colr

He’s the American Corbyn and only a Democrat when it suits him.

Trump will be delighted.

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Agreed. I think he stands more of a wildcard chance than perhaps Biden, however I really think one of millennial candidates would have been a truer opposition.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Agreed. I think he stands more of a wildcard chance than perhaps Biden, however I really think one of millennial candidates would have been a truer opposition.

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OAC looks an interesting prospect.

Yang has qualified for the next debate now. Mon the Yang Gang.

Agreed re OAC, Colr.

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Originally Posted by Colr

OAC looks an interesting prospect.

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Literally too young.
It’s a poor field of candidates.


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Originally Posted by Colr

OAC looks an interesting prospect.

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AOC? As in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? Interesting but already demonised by the US media. If she runs in future it will be very difficult for her to get a fair hearing.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

AOC? As in Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? Interesting but already demonised by the US media. If she runs in future it will be very difficult for her to get a fair hearing.

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She is also way too left to ever win nationwide in America. I think Bernie is as well and if he wins the nomination I think trump wins.
I think Biden is a poor candidate but if he avoids looking like a ditsy old man could probably beat Trump.


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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Prepare for ecstasy! (US presidents only get 4 year terms :greengrin )

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Who says he won't try and scrap term limits?

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Who says he won't try and scrap term limits?

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:agree: I can't believe I overlooked that screamingly obvious point! :rolleyes:

If Putin can do it, why not Trumpy? :bitchy:

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

:agree: I can't believe I overlooked that screamingly obvious point! :rolleyes:

If Putin can do it, why not Trumpy? :bitchy:

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All joking aside this is a perfect example of why the American political structure is in *some* ways very admirable. It mitigates against unconstitutional acts very strongly and holds its president to account rather thoroughly. It's exactly why Trump never could pull a Putin, for example.

Of course there are many more inherent problems with persisting with the legal doctrine of a ~250 year old document, however ultimately I think 4 year terms, a constitution, an elected head of state and a secular democracy are all rather good things, many of which the UK would benefit from adopting.

That was quite a tangent from myself. Next debate is 7th Feb in New Hampshire. Looking forward to Yang being back on the stage.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

All joking aside this is a perfect example of why the American political structure is in *some* ways very admirable. It mitigates against unconstitutional acts very strongly and holds its president to account rather thoroughly. It's exactly why Trump never could pull a Putin, for example.

Of course there are many more inherent problems with persisting with the legal doctrine of a ~250 year old document, however ultimately I think 4 year terms, a constitution, an elected head of state and a secular democracy are all rather good things, many of which the UK would benefit from adopting.

That was quite a tangent from myself. Next debate is 7th Feb in New Hampshire. Looking forward to Yang being back on the stage.

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The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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He can as long as he has the complicity of the individual Republican senators. If they don't break ranks he is home free. If they do it gets interesting.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The American constitution appears not to be as good a safeguard against a potential slide into dictatorship as they thought. Trump appears to be able to avoid any censure at all from Congress just by obstructing witnesses and by controlling the DoJ.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I get your point OH but I think it's important to note that it was a house of Congress that impeached him, I think that's more significant than being censured. There's definitely an issue with a president being able to pick and choose supreme court judges but.

Almost certainly looking at Biden vs Trump.

Battle of the septuagenarians.

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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Posted on the other thread that I am still uncertain that Andrew Cuomo wouldn’t manage to win a floor vote at the Democratic convention, if he has the desire. I think it is unlikely but it is also a fast moving dynamic. Two weeks ago I would have said no chance, one week ago I would have said maybe, today I would be saying a definite possible or a possible definite. Joe Biden is the presumptive and fairly so, but Cuomo could be seen as the younger guy, with momentum.

So as long as the internet doesn’t lose the memes about Biden and Obama talking about Trump then I will survive!

A possible clincher could be the choice of running mate. I would like to see Kamala Harris on the ticket. A woman as VP would be great. Harris probably brings California, but to be honest Biden or Cuomo do that anyway. The smart choice is to tack to the south and pick up a VP who might swing Florida. Or flip it north and ask who will swing Ohio or Michigan. There are a couple of governorial and senatorial picks in the region who make it very interesting. The other issue is whether Trump sticks with Pence. Pence is a strict conservative Republican And he hasn’t actually done anything too wrong as VP. I am not sure what he has done as VP. He does keep the religious right onside for Trump so he is a firewall. Electorally, he doesn’t offer anything much in the swing states IMO.

That opens up the swing states to an extent, because the Republicans seem reluctant to go with a ticket where, for the sake of argument, they have a woman, black or Latino VP.

Presidential elections in America are similar to the UK and often depend on key states or constituencies. Makes them fascinating.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

Seems pretty inconsequential at the moment, but Sanders officially dropped out yesterday. Biden vs Trump.

Looks increasingly likely that it'll be 4 more years of him.

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I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

Posted on the other thread that I am still uncertain that Andrew Cuomo wouldn’t manage to win a floor vote at the Democratic convention, if he has the desire. I think it is unlikely but it is also a fast moving dynamic. Two weeks ago I would have said no chance, one week ago I would have said maybe, today I would be saying a definite possible or a possible definite. Joe Biden is the presumptive and fairly so, but Cuomo could be seen as the younger guy, with momentum.

So as long as the internet doesn’t lose the memes about Biden and Obama talking about Trump then I will survive!

A possible clincher could be the choice of running mate. I would like to see Kamala Harris on the ticket. A woman as VP would be great. Harris probably brings California, but to be honest Biden or Cuomo do that anyway. The smart choice is to tack to the south and pick up a VP who might swing Florida. Or flip it north and ask who will swing Ohio or Michigan. There are a couple of governorial and senatorial picks in the region who make it very interesting. The other issue is whether Trump sticks with Pence. Pence is a strict conservative Republican And he hasn’t actually done anything too wrong as VP. I am not sure what he has done as VP. He does keep the religious right onside for Trump so he is a firewall. Electorally, he doesn’t offer anything much in the swing states IMO.

That opens up the swing states to an extent, because the Republicans seem reluctant to go with a ticket where, for the sake of argument, they have a woman, black or Latino VP.

Presidential elections in America are similar to the UK and often depend on key states or constituencies. Makes them fascinating.

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If the Dems don't win California, then we might as well start planning for the apocalypse! :greengrin

The key states will be the rust belt; Ohio, Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan; Florida (as ever) and the South-but-not-deep-south; North Carolina, Virginia etc.

Although Biden is establishment Dem, I don't think he'll have the problems the deeply unpopular Hillary had in getting the vote out in the swing states. A bland, benign, anti-Trump figure is probably what they need.

Having watched a fair bit of Biden over the last few weeks I would be shocked if he wasn’t suffering from a very mild form of Alzheimer’s or something similar. The amount of times he finds it impossible to get a sentence out or jumbles his words is staggering for a man apparently in full health. He looks lost so much of the time. I want to say American deserves better than Trump or Biden but I’m not even sure they do anymore.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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Trump campaign have already been pushing the health angle against Biden.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Trump won again.

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Originally Posted by HibernianJK

Having watched a fair bit of Biden over the last few weeks I would be shocked if he wasn’t suffering from a very mild form of Alzheimer’s or something similar. The amount of times he finds it impossible to get a sentence out or jumbles his words is staggering for a man apparently in full health. He looks lost so much of the time. I want to say American deserves better than Trump or Biden but I’m not even sure they do anymore.

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Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

I don't think so. Biden is well ahead in polling and it's not like either of them are unknowns. A certain amount of gaffery will be priced in.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html

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I'd certainly be happy if it isn't the case! Though I'll hesitate to trust the polls after 2016. :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Trump should be unelectable also, and should have been in 2016.

There is a pretty committed anti-Trump vote which actually might be enough to get any Dem at all elected.

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Originally Posted by Vault Boy

I'd certainly be happy if it isn't the case! Though I'll hesitate to trust the polls after 2016. :greengrin

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The national polls were actually pretty much bang on. Clinton won the popular vote by +2 which I think was very close to the polling average. She just got the votes in the wrong places. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Trump will rip him a new one on his health issues alone, based on Biden's recent appearances he's unelectable as president.

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Yeah I’ve been thinking that. I saw on another message board (American one) that Biden is apparently 11 points ahead at the moment. Didn’t bother checking but as another posted said a lot of ‘anyone but Trump’ votes should get him over the line.