Another betting thread?

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun :dunno:

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun :dunno:

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An excellent idea, let’s do it.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun :dunno:

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With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

Why not just post said thoughts in the current thread?

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Originally Posted by Frazerbob

Why not just post said thoughts in the current thread?

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Yes I thought about that but with the comments about after timing I thought there may be enough serious gamblers to warrant another thread. I would probably have far more negative advice than positive and that might not go down too well with fun gamblers

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

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I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

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Might try that tactic as my multi team acca's are abysmal.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun :dunno:

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Go for it, as it would be appreciated by many.

Is there any need for any of this to be on another thread?

I'm sure the "fun" bettors would appreciate warnings as much as more serious gamblers.

Sunderland have been getting far too many draws all season and they have cost me on several occasions. Having lost faith in them betting-wise, they did seem to have picked up a better bit of league form and with so much for them to play for their odds weren't too bad for the risk they represented.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

Is there any need for any of this to be on another thread?

I'm sure the "fun" bettors would appreciate warnings as much as more serious gamblers.

Sunderland have been getting far too many draws all season and they have cost me on several occasions. Having lost faith in them betting-wise, they did seem to have picked up a better bit of league form and with so much for them to play for their odds weren't too bad for the risk they represented.

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Yes I might take this back to the other thread, I'll see. The thing about Sunderland was they were playing a team who were scoring lots of goals and had beaten Barnsley who were in third place.
If I just come along and say you shouldn't have done that bet it might pi55 people off.
Ach I don't know. Lets see what the weekend brings 😀

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

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I suppose it depends how much your stake is, mate. If it's a fiver on a multiple accumulator, which is my usual stake, then it's a good bit of fun which makes it exciting and not the end of the world if it fails. I never bet more than a tenner on anything beyond a single. It's all relative; I play for buttons usually, but I would advise folk not to go large on accumulators.

I think a lot comes down to how you view your gambling. If you are serious about trying to make an additional income out of it then that takes time, discipline and an ability to detach yourself from any emotion relating to the bet. On the other hand if you are betting a fiver a week on a multiple team acca with a very small chance of winning a fortune for a bit of fun then it's likely you aren't a 'serious gambler' anyway and overthinking it isn't going to increase your chances to any great extent.

Whilst I don't treat gambling as a way to make money, I also know I can be quite compulsive so I think very carefully about my bets. I only bet on horses and I can go days and weeks without a bet if nothing takes my fancy; I'll also happily watch races with no money at stake just to watch certain horses with a longer term view.

I keep track of every penny I stake, win and lose as it's a good way to keep a bit discipline and lose the 'it's only another tenner' mentality.

Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

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Totally agree mate.

If you find yourself betting on a Venezuelan basketball game on a Sunday night the chances are you're on a bad chase!:greengrin

Everton can theoretically still qualify for Europe. Tomorrow against a broken Fulham they should win easily. Scott Parker will do well next year with Fulham in the Championship I believe but it's now all about minimising the humiliation and trying to keep players motivated.
Conclusion...Everton still have a lot to play for and at a shade of odds on warrant an investment.

If anyone is interested I have only two levels of betting depending on the size of my current bank

1-£50 single
2-£100 single

I'm tempted to go level 2 but the fact they are playing away from home tempers things just a bit. Level 1 bet.

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

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Yep 100% agree. And remember no profit is too small

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Originally Posted by Scorrie

Yep 100% agree. And remember no profit is too small

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Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.


If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

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Hearts are 1/2 tomorrow, wouldn't touch them with a £1.

If you want to make long term profit, don't be lured in by the odds regardless of how short or big.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

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:agree:

Accumulators for small stakes only, unless you can afford the losses. Don't be putting your monthly salary on an eight fold.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun :dunno:

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Wish i'd seen this on tuesday as they done my 6 fold for nearly a grand!

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

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Hard to show a profit at the end of the season backing at those prices. Keep a diary and you're better than most if you can get upwards of 70% winners. It's reckoned if you can consistently beat Pinnacles closing price you've got an edge.

These days I usually don't go any further than a treble if I'm looking at a potential acca. Most of my bets are now on a vary of markets from shots on targets to bookings, i do this as I know I'm going to be watching the game and it adds a bit more excitement. The main issue is ensuring that you don't gamble on every game that you watch that I had a habit of doing as you are most likely to lose money in the long run that way.

I have also started to do a lot more research into the teams I bet on. For example, looking into previous results between the sides, injuries, suspensions, home and away records, etc. I also include this with gut feeling. At 2/7 the other night I saw absolutely no value in Norwich up against a team who battling relegation (these are the bets in the past which have let me down more than most) so I opted for Barcelona instead.

My stakes vary on what markets I bet on and how confident I feel of winning.

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Originally Posted by Killiehibbie

Hard to show a profit at the end of the season backing at those prices. Keep a diary and you're better than most if you can get upwards of 70% winners. It's reckoned if you can consistently beat Pinnacles closing price you've got an edge.

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I used 1/2 as an example but I hear you. Actually 7 of my last 10 bets have come in.

http://www.daily25.com/

Have a read of this blog to see how 'easy' it is to make money gambling.

What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

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Really difficult one too call for me. Wolves don't have the best away record against teams at the bottom of the table, they lost away to Huddersfield, Cardiff and Burnley. They only managed a draw away to Fulham.

I would probably be more inclined to bet on a draw in this one.

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

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Too close to call for me. My head says "draw" but I never back draws so for me it's no bet.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

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I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

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How much statistical analysis do you do? Using any xG metrics or any of the newer more in depth stuff or any tried and trusted or anything else?

Seems a lot based on high level stuff or feel more than anything else? Maybe this works for you which is great, just thought anyone seriously trying to make money from betting would be using all available data to make decisions?

For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.

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Originally Posted by superfurryhibby

I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

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I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

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Originally Posted by Hibeesmad

I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

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I would want better than 4/6, 3/1 the draw or 11/2 Newcastle to have a bet.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.

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Finished near the back again after fading badly in the final furlong.

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Originally Posted by Killiehibbie

I would want better than 4/6, 3/1 the draw or 11/2 Newcastle to have a bet.

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I'll probably back Leicester HT/FT at 7/5

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Originally Posted by Hibeesmad

I'll probably back Leicester HT/FT at 7/5

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A few going 13/8 for that. Squeeze every last penny you can out of them.

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Originally Posted by superfurryhibby

I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

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Yes maybe. I've said they may win, but I'm very cautious these days and there's enough doubts for me to say "No bet"

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.

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--9th/11th Bottom 3 again..

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Originally Posted by TheGreenMan

How much statistical analysis do you do? Using any xG metrics or any of the newer more in depth stuff or any tried and trusted or anything else?

Seems a lot based on high level stuff or feel more than anything else? Maybe this works for you which is great, just thought anyone seriously trying to make money from betting would be using all available data to make decisions?

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The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

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Spot on. I’m slowly learning. Don’t get me wrong, it wasn’t long ago I took £696 from a fiver and I had a ridiculous run of winning circa £400 from £20 bets but it’s unsustainable. For now it’s doubles and singles. I’m trying to keep a steady bank of £40 in my account and any profit above that is immediately withdrawn into my bank account.

My latest p&l for the last 7 days shows a profit of £450.

Leicester vs Newcastle

Over 1.5 goals
5+ Leicester corners
3+ Newcastle corners
1+ booking for each team

9/4 with Skybet.

Vintage clouds has a shot tomorrow in the Scottish national. Good horse although it fell last week , 10/1 is decent.

I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.


Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.

Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.

Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683


One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol

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Originally Posted by Hibeesmad

I fancy Leicester to win tonight. Newcastle have only won 2 of 16 premier league away games this season. Leicester beat them 2-0 at St James' Park earlier in the season and I think it will be the same scoreline tonight.

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Leicester's performance this evening reminded me of the Calderwood days. Probably the worst performance I've seen this season. Shocker

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Originally Posted by seanshow

I'm not a gambler at all, I did the match betting thing maybe 2 years ago and made approx £600 but that's just using the bookies offers/betting exchange, and then closed all the various bookie accounts afterwards.


Regarding accumulator bets it doesn't need saying that people are largely throwing a fiver here a tenner there into the bookies pockets, and sooner or later another "999BET.com" online site will appear.

Football accum bet chances if each match had level odds.

Single - 1 in 3
Double - 1 in 9
Treble - 1 in 27
4 team - 1 in 81
5 team - 1 in 243
6 team - 1 in 729
7 team - 1 in 2,187
8 team - 1 in 6,561
9 team - 1 in 19,683


One of my mates has a gambling problem I am fairly certain, but he still lives with his folks so he can afford it lol

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I started matched betting 3 years ago and now do it full time. Why did you close down your accounts?

I done matched betting gets a sore head after first while trying to get offers

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

The main thing for me is to cut out all the old ways.
Handicaps
wrong going/ground
Second legs of cup games
Draws
Accumulators and lots more

I have a full time job and whilst my betting is showing profit after decades of losses I'm not treating it as a job. Although when I retire I may well put in far more work. I'm not a great lover of stats. Recent form, fitness, breeding, injuries etc. are more important. I think it's possible to make a few bob by learning from your mistakes. Discipline is everything

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For those of us who don't know about racing, why do you avoid handicap races? Are they much more unpredictable?

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

For those of us who don't know about racing, why do you avoid handicap races? Are they much more unpredictable?

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The horses handicap rating is based on previous performances and is the opinion of one man "the handicapper" All the horses in a race are handicapped (carrying extra weight) relative to each other so theoretically they should all finish in a dead heat. Its an easy system to manipulate by a shrewd trainer, the great Martin Pipe's autobiography tells how he legally did this. Its a system with too many variables, so for me its a no go area.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

The horses handicap rating is based on previous performances and is the opinion of one man "the handicapper" All the horses in a race are handicapped (carrying extra weight) relative to each other so theoretically they should all finish in a dead heat. Its an easy system to manipulate by a shrewd trainer, the great Martin Pipe's autobiography tells how he legally did this. Its a system with too many variables, so for me its a no go area.

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I see. Thanks for that.

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

I think a lot comes down to how you view your gambling. If you are serious about trying to make an additional income out of it then that takes time, discipline and an ability to detach yourself from any emotion relating to the bet. On the other hand if you are betting a fiver a week on a multiple team acca with a very small chance of winning a fortune for a bit of fun then it's likely you aren't a 'serious gambler' anyway and overthinking it isn't going to increase your chances to any great extent.

Whilst I don't treat gambling as a way to make money, I also know I can be quite compulsive so I think very carefully about my bets. I only bet on horses and I can go days and weeks without a bet if nothing takes my fancy; I'll also happily watch races with no money at stake just to watch certain horses with a longer term view.

I keep track of every penny I stake, win and lose as it's a good way to keep a bit discipline and lose the 'it's only another tenner' mentality.

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Can I ask what your thoughts are on breeding. I'll only bet in Group/Grade races so I can be assured (as much as anyone can) that the horses are of decent stock and (should) all be trying.
Horses are naturally pack animals and have leaders and followers. Could this explain why some have a string of seconds and thirds to their name? They are followers, and those who battle to the line are leaders? Maybe these traits are bred out of the line over generations? It's something I'd like to learn more about.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

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I was one. To go HT/FT on an away side, you have to be very confident, and, to be fair, I was with Chelsea. HT/FT has to be on a team who are as close as possible to a certainty, otherwise it's too big a risk for cautious betters. I have HT/FT today on Spurs, Ajax and Peterhead - all at home - and even then a tenner only returns just over thirty quid. It might end up they all win but aren't ahead at half time, but, for a small stake, I'm willing to take the gamble. You have to decide whether the extra risk is worth the extra return, and the odds on a straight treble with the three mentioned teams are so small, and the chances of a first half lead so good, that it's worth it. I wouldn't go large on such a bet, however. It's all relative of risk/reward.

I should I also have those three to win FT as part of a larger accumulator - hedging my bets :wink:

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Originally Posted by Hibernia&Alba

I was one. To go HT/FT on an away side, you have to be very confident, and, to be fair, I was with Chelsea. HT/FT has to be on a team who are as close as possible to a certainty, otherwise it's too big a risk for cautious betters. I have HT/FT today on Spurs, Ajax and Peterhead - all at home - and even then a tenner only returns just over thirty quid. It might end up they all win but aren't ahead at half time, but, for a small stake, I'm willing to take the gamble. You have to decide whether the extra risk is worth the extra return, and the odds on a straight treble with the three mentioned teams are so small, and the chances of a first half lead so good, that it's worth it. I wouldn't go large on such a bet, however. It's all relative of risk/reward.

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Of course it is :agree:

I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck :wink:

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Of course it is :agree:

I'm not trying to tell people how to bet but just pointing out a few relevant facts. As today, the treble you fancy to win has effectively now become a six outcome accumulator with odds of just over 2/1. I know you know that!
Hope it comes in for you. Good luck :wink:

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HT/FT is always risky, even when a game looks a foregone conclusion: Huddersfield might defend for their lives today and hold out for 85 minutes; you just never know. Hence I will only put a few quid on such a bet. The key is to ask yourself whether a losing bet would hurt you. If yes, don't risk it.

[QUOTE=EskbankHibby;5763471]With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.[/QUOTE

Never bet anything shorter than 1\2 and that is probably still too short. Bookies love a Celtic Man City or Liverpool draw when they were between 1/7 or even seen City at 1\25 leave them well alone.

Another tip I would give from bitter experience is don't bet on matches from leagues you aren't familiar with, just because the odds look good. This is very true of Scandinavian football, for example, where the teams tend to be quite well matched. Just because a side is a short odds favourite, don't take that as a banker. Do your homework first: form, league table etc.

What we thinking about Bournemouth at 23/10 away to Brighton?

Always put different teams in each acca no matter how strong you think a selection is as one wrong un can drag all your accas down

Basic I know!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

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I know you're being careful to avoid sounding condescending so this isn't meant as a criticism, just an observation on the differing perspectives on gambling. It's clear that you're viewing gambling as a challenge where you're aiming to make a profit over an extended period of time and your advice is based on that - which is fine for people who want to try to do the same although my broad view on that is that beating the bookies over an extended period is extremely difficult and if you do they'll close your account anyway!

I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.

So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!

My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!

ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HibeeMackenzie

What we thinking about Bournemouth at 23/10 away to Brighton?

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For me..home win or draw..no bet

I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.

I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.

I am not a gambler but I quite like spending a quiet hour or so on a Friday evening or Saturday morning putting together an acca or two. Money is tight in our household soI bet miniscule amounts just for the fun of it. I will look at good and poor form teams but not always obvious ones. I will occasionally check local websites to see if there is any reason for slumps in more obscure teams. This is where you learn about key injuries, manager changes ect.
I enjoy the research side.
I often use betfair acca edge, treble with stake back if one leg loses. Serious gamblers will baulk at that but it suits me. I only bet 1 or 2 quid.
I put a fiver in my account during the world cup and my account is at £37 a year later so I win more than I lose

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on Leicester v Newcastle

It seemed to me anyway that Leicester were not the "nailed on" certainties that some thought. I wasn't as sure as I could be of a win so the money stayed in my account, that's a result and one of the first and most important lessons to learn. YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET. That's a great weapon in the tussle with the bookies. The game last night was the only one in England and also televised so there was always going to be a rush to get bets on this particular game.
Remember YOU DON'T NEED TO HAVE A BET

Secondly, as there wasn't a great deal to choose from, this game attracted lots of half time/full time bets or even worse "win both halves" bets. This is the classic "I need a better price" syndrome. You are effectively turning a single bet into a double where two outcomes are required. There were many people who fancied Chelsea the other night but because they wanted a little bit more money returned they went for these type of bets. The outcome...Chelsea, who they fancied to win, did indeed win but they did their cash through falling into the trap of looking for better prices.

I see it all the time with people at work. They'll go online, pick out two or three teams they think will win but when they see a return of maybe 100/30 or 9/2 for example they think "not enough" and add another couple of teams, solely to boost the price.

Earlier on, "Scorrie" told us no profit is too small. Excellent quote. If you've made your choice and are willing to put money down to back that choice up then stick with it. Looking for a bigger return inevitably leads to losing.

I hope nobody sees this as patronising or condescending (never really understood the difference so take your pick) :greengrin The purpose of this thread was to advise/give thoughts/maybe help others. Anyway as I said, just my thoughts.

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Match Stats

Home TeamLeicesterAway TeamNewcastle

PossessionHome72%Away28%ShotsHome12Away11Shots on TargetHome5Away5CornersHome2Away3Ho
Apart from possession everything else was fairly equal, with Newcastle getting the most important stat. Play that game 100 times and how many would Leicester win? I'd guess about 50, 5/4 and i'd back them. Last season the possession in this fixture was 66% Leicester and they lost.

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Originally Posted by Killiehibbie

Match Stats

Home TeamLeicesterAway TeamNewcastle

PossessionHome72%Away28%ShotsHome12Away11Shots on TargetHome5Away5CornersHome2Away3Ho
Apart from possession everything else was fairly equal, with Newcastle getting the most important stat. Play that game 100 times and how many would Leicester win? I'd guess about 50, 5/4 and i'd back them. Last season the possession in this fixture was 66% Leicester and they lost.

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It’s a weird one as Leicester had 59% possession up in Newcastle earlier in the season and won 2-0. It’s a funny old game, but ultimately possession doesn’t win you matches.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

I know you're being careful to avoid sounding condescending so this isn't meant as a criticism, just an observation on the differing perspectives on gambling. It's clear that you're viewing gambling as a challenge where you're aiming to make a profit over an extended period of time and your advice is based on that - which is fine for people who want to try to do the same although my broad view on that is that beating the bookies over an extended period is extremely difficult and if you do they'll close your account anyway!

I come at it from a different angle (and I suspect many other "fun" gamblers do too) where to me it's a form of entertainment, and the money I spend I view like paying for a sky subscription or a cinema ticket or whatever - it's the cost of that entertainment. So if I stick a quid on a ridiculous combination of corners / cards / goals / player to score etc I have low expectations of actually winning (especially on those types of bet which are basically just free money for the bookies) but it makes watching a match I would otherwise have no interest in really quite entertaining. Same goes for accas - 7 match over 2.5 goals accas are terrible value but they're fun if you start getting a few in and are holding out for a goal or two in the last five minutes. That doesn't mean I'm setting out to lose obviously and it's nice when the occasional glory bet comes in but that's very much a hope rather than an expectation.

So whilst it might look silly to you that work colleagues are adding extra selections to build a glory acca, it's perfectly possible that they're also looking at you and saying "look at that dafty trying to beat the bookies with a bunch of boring bets"!

My little tale of woe from the other night - I had a Lucky Fifteen on four correct scores on Wednesday night (£3 to return £1700 if they all came in) and in to injury time three were on track for a return of £199.80. I was sitting looking at the cash out at £150 debating whether to press the button when Reading scored 6 minutes and 20 seconds in to 6 minutes of injury time to scupper it and drop the returns to £19.80. So that's either a salutary lesson in how daft multiple bets are, or it shows you how much fun you can have for 3 quid - it's all a matter of perspective!

ps I'll still follow this thread as the sensible advice is appreciated - however I'll undoubtedly take sensible selections and put them into bonkers accas...

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Hi Rocky, thanks for the reply. I completely understand the fun gambling side of this. That's exactly where I and most other bettors started. It's also why I thought starting another thread might be the right idea rather than possibly pi55 off the people on the other thread.

Can I just say I don't think I've ever come across as saying anyone is silly (workmates or others) I hope I've just pointed out those behaviours (looking for bigger rewards) will in the long run lead to losses rather than wins. Hopefully people who are viewing this thread may be picking up a few nuggets of information. I'm not trying to change the gambling habits of the nation :greengrin and still not sure this thread has a long life.

Nothing really to add to this thread other than i like a bet, small stakes normally, £20 at most although i have had the four big bets for me, in the hundreds and 3 came in.:woohoo:

Of course over the years i'm well down as most of us will be, but i do love a punt on the football, and threads like these are a great read whether you take any of the good advice or not. :top marks

Sevilla v Betis tonight, probably my favourite game of the season when these two meet (outside of Hibs games obviously!). Love these games, the rivalry is super intense but usually fairly sporting, although tactics tend to go out of the window and they are fond of a high scoring game.

Sevilla to win and both teams to score at 15/8 is my pick for this one (Odds with bet365), however, Betis and BTTS at 11/2 looks to be good value if you're feeling the green and white connection.

Tricky day for rational betting! All part of the game though.

What next?!

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Originally Posted by EskbankHibby

Tricky day for rational betting! All part of the game though.

What next?!

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I'm already on Liverpool ante post for the league so that's enough excitement for me today :greengrin

Torino to beat Cagliari for me. £20 single near enough doubling my money. Small gains.

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Originally Posted by The_Exile

Sevilla v Betis tonight, probably my favourite game of the season when these two meet (outside of Hibs games obviously!). Love these games, the rivalry is super intense but usually fairly sporting, although tactics tend to go out of the window and they are fond of a high scoring game.

Sevilla to win and both teams to score at 15/8 is my pick for this one (Odds with bet365), however, Betis and BTTS at 11/2 looks to be good value if you're feeling the green and white connection.

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Well done mate :agree:

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I actually find the English leagues a nightmare. Everyone beats everyone, much harder to predict.

I like sooccerstats for a quick bit of research, you can see the last 6 games form in an instant.

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Try WinDrawWin good website easy to navigate and lots of good stats.

Thoughts on the masters and golf competitions in general.

Great to see Tiger winning again, lovely scenes with his family afterwards

Many people see value in the big prices offered by the bookies before the competition starts. Also the extended place terms bring loads of people in. As we all know, often at the cut even well fancied players miss out on the final two days. I never back each way these days and even when I did it wasn't on multiple selections. The limited return seldom covers your initial outlay on all your selections.
If I'm having a bet these days on the golf I'll wait until after round two has finished. By then you should have seen who is handling the course/conditions well. Granted the prices have dropped but are still very attractive for single win bets on one or two players. At the finish of round three Tiger was generally available at 9/1

Again just my thoughts. I've made many mistakes over the years and now it's about learning from them.

For the fun gamblers this won't apply so please carry on having fun. :aok:

I think Arsenal are a decent price tonight but it's one of those I just have a 'feeling' about so will be avoiding them

Quote:

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Originally Posted by franck sauzee

I started matched betting 3 years ago and now do it full time. Why did you close down your accounts?

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I only opened accounts for the free offers so didnt see any point in having all these accounts and passwords. (plus the spam emails they sent out)

I Wouldnt actually mind doing it all over again but I presume i would need to register new accounts with a new card/ ip address or move house :greengrin which is a bit extreme.

When I closed about 15 accounts I got contacted by a few betsites offering me gambling awareness help, which was kind of ironic lol

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Franck I would be interested in how you made it work beyond the initial free bet stage because it wasn't all together clear how you made a profit beyond that? it looked like slim pickings after that but I was obviously missing something.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by seanshow

I only opened accounts for the free offers so didnt see any point in having all these accounts and passwords. (plus the spam emails they sent out)

I Wouldnt actually mind doing it all over again but I presume i would need to register new accounts with a new card/ ip address or move house :greengrin which is a bit extreme.

When I closed about 15 accounts I got contacted by a few betsites offering me gambling awareness help, which was kind of ironic lol

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Franck I would be interested in how you made it work beyond the initial free bet stage because it wasn't all together clear how you made a profit beyond that? it looked like slim pickings after that but I was obviously missing something.

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There are an absolute mountain of reload offers from many bookies, bet 365 do their 4/1 offer on itv races so that can be used to make at least 30 quid every Saturday, then you’ve got free bet clubs etc which are worth another 5/10 quid each so around 30-40 quid a week in total from a few of the big name bookies, then a multitude of other offers, odds boosts etc, a lot of them only worth 3 or 4 quid but do that a couple of dozen times and you can quite easily make well over 100 quid a week without too much effort.

bet 365 and paddy’s pay out when your team goes 2 nil up so if you get a close match at the exchange to minimise your qualifying losses, you can make a killing out of that too if there’s a full turnaround or cash out your lay bet if the odds are favourable in play.

Atalanta v Empoli

On the face of it an easy home win? I'm not so sure. Empoli's poor away record includes an odd goal defeat to both Juventus and Roma and have beaten Napoli recently at home. At around 7/1 maybe a bit of value?

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Atalanta v Empoli

On the face of it an easy home win? I'm not so sure. Empoli's poor away record includes an odd goal defeat to both Juventus and Roma and have beaten Napoli recently at home. At around 7/1 maybe a bit of value?

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They have won 0 of 14 away games in the league this season, however they did come back from 2-0 down at home against Atalanta to win 3-2 earlier in the season. I think Atalanta will win but it could be tight.

Bohemians have started the season well, champions Dundalk less so and facing three defeats on the trot. 6/1 on the away win seems generous.


Bookies got that one right!

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Thoughts on the masters and golf competitions in general.

Great to see Tiger winning again, lovely scenes with his family afterwards

Many people see value in the big prices offered by the bookies before the competition starts. Also the extended place terms bring loads of people in. As we all know, often at the cut even well fancied players miss out on the final two days. I never back each way these days and even when I did it wasn't on multiple selections. The limited return seldom covers your initial outlay on all your selections.
If I'm having a bet these days on the golf I'll wait until after round two has finished. By then you should have seen who is handling the course/conditions well. Granted the prices have dropped but are still very attractive for single win bets on one or two players. At the finish of round three Tiger was generally available at 9/1

Again just my thoughts. I've made many mistakes over the years and now it's about learning from them.

For the fun gamblers this won't apply so please carry on having fun. :aok:

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With golf, I tend to do well out of 2 types of bet - bets before it has started and in-play bets either before or during the final round.

I like the extra places and picking out long shots before tournaments, who can do well for me if they place, very well when they win which I'll get a couple of each year. I also like the odd favourite in a weak field.

My worst bets are (normally) in-play during rounds 1, 2 and 3. For all a player can be playing well, the odds don't tend to reflect how much golf there still is left to play, I have lost fortunes doing this and therefore avoid them - when I keep my discipline.

I normally have an instinct during the final round when a tournament looks to be going a particular way, and it is an instinct that rarely lets me down. If I wasn't all-in on Molinari, you could feel the momentum shift towards Woods during the back 9. Some might say that betting on the Masters prior to the back 9 on the final day is a mug's game...

The strength of the fields in majors can make them hard to call, as there are can be so many strong players in contention, any of whom would win. Very fine margins. And I'm hopeless at calling the US Open. They make it crazy tough and if the weather gets going it can be impossible to predict.

I like the leader after round.... markets if I'm sitting watching, again because you get a feel for what is going on. These are a nightmare in advance or if you're not watching though. Good odds on clubhouse leaders whilst players on the course may be toiling, maybe if the weather has been better earlier in the day.

The "bogey free round" market gave me a bit of joy over the weekend. Molinari is a very steady player who gets few bogeys, well worth a look on this one. Tommy Fleetwood didn't have many bogeys until later in his round with this one too.

There are a few decent tipsters online who give tips and back then up with logic. They can be worth having a look at on the Wednesday, prior to events getting underway.

Good thread. Intersting reading. I go from trying to take it serious to blowing my money on stupid foreign football bets when I'm pissed! ��

Gonna try some of the tips, like keep a diary, see how I get on.

Keep the hints n tips coming. ��

Watford 16/1 Draw no bet in play. Thought they were by far the better team in the first half. Deulofeu could be the difference if he comes on