Scottish Independence

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

We need a fact checker on this forum, this is becoming outrageous :greengrin The SNP were not "massive favourites". The results in that by-election made not one difference to the projected seat win or the projected vote share in the upcoming Scottish election. Whilst the SNP done badly Labour also dropped 2% from the 2021 SG election results which at that time was their worst. Reform was the only winner.

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To be fair, I think the SNP were 1/7 favourites at one stage. Labour were way out at something like 10/1.

Pretty much nobody expected a Labour win and the only consistent prediction that came pass was that, as you say, Reform did well. Swinney consistently banged on about it being a two-horse race between the SNP and Reform which made him look a bit daft.

Definitely a major shock compared to the Westminster by-election in roughly the same constituency when constituents had already turfed out Margaret Ferrier.

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

Jeezo there you go again, spouting rubbish and miss quoting what I said. I said "some of todays problems could be solved by complete autonomy of our own affairs" that my friend is an irrefutable fact. "People aren't buying it anymore" again where to start, you literally replied to a post that was highlighting yet another poll which shows Independence support is rising and more people in the country want it rather than not, them there's the facts.



We need a fact checker on this forum, this is becoming outrageous :greengrin The SNP were not "massive favourites". The results in that by-election made not one difference to the projected seat win or the projected vote share in the upcoming Scottish election. Whilst the SNP done badly Labour also dropped 2% from the 2021 SG election results which at that time was their worst. Reform was the only winner.

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"The SNP are 1/7 favourites to win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, with Reform UK second in the betting. We look at the full odds, candidates, and where to bet"

What's a massive favorite if not 1/7? 😂

I said it's really easy to say one thing in a poll but totally different when it comes to actual voting, we saw that in 2024 when support for Indy parties was about 35% I think? I think if we had a referendum tomorrow it would be about 60/40 for No.

I have heard for years Indy is just around the corner now and X is going to drive support for Indy yet it never happens. I am super worried about the UN though, Craig Murray is such a great figure head to build the case for Independence (he was even rejected by Alba 😂 as a candidate)

I could look back at posts from 2019 etc and it would be the same thing posted where people were waking up to Indy and it was just around the corner.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

"The SNP are 1/7 favourites to win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, with Reform UK second in the betting. We look at the full odds, candidates, and where to bet"

What's a massive favorite if not 1/7? 😂

I said it's really easy to say one thing in a poll but totally different when it comes to actual voting, we saw that in 2024 when support for Indy parties was about 35% I think? I think if we had a referendum tomorrow it would be about 60/40 for No.

I have heard for years Indy is just around the corner now and X is going to drive support for Indy yet it never happens. I am super worried about the UN though, Craig Murray is such a great figure head to build the case for Independence (he was even rejected by Alba 😂 as a candidate)

I could look back at posts from 2019 etc and it would be the same thing posted where people were waking up to Indy and it was just around the corner.

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FWIW I sort of agree with you.

Why would support for Indy be growing right now? What has fundamentally changed, to change anybody's opinion? Who, arguing the case for Indy, is putting forward a new, interesting and unarguable case for independence?

In my opinion, for support for independence to grow, the SNP need to be out of power for a while. The pressure needs to be on Labour, Reform, and the Tories, whoever is in power, to make the union and (for now) devolution work for the people of Scotland to make their lives better.

The SNP need new faces, new ideas, to be in opposition and for new opportunities to present themselves.

It's not a great time to be any sort of incumbent and I don't think the SNP or the cause of independence is furthered by them trying to be a competent government in a constitutional set up with which they fundamentally disagree.

The cause of independence is, imo, going nowhere right now. There's no amount of arguing from "the converted" that will convince me otherwise.

I don't really want to be a source of misery and negativity whilst Hibs are playing such an absolute blinder day by day but I've lost faith in Scotland and it's ability to change and be better. My full focus is on dealing with the daily **** in order for my kids to be in a position to leave and move somewhere else, somewhere better. I don't see a future of happiness, prosperity and peace here, only bleakness. They need to get what sort of an education they can, gather some valuable skills and get the hell out.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

"The SNP are 1/7 favourites to win the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, with Reform UK second in the betting. We look at the full odds, candidates, and where to bet"

What's a massive favorite if not 1/7? 😂

I said it's really easy to say one thing in a poll but totally different when it comes to actual voting, we saw that in 2024 when support for Indy parties was about 35% I think? I think if we had a referendum tomorrow it would be about 60/40 for No.

I have heard for years Indy is just around the corner now and X is going to drive support for Indy yet it never happens. I am super worried about the UN though, Craig Murray is such a great figure head to build the case for Independence (he was even rejected by Alba 😂 as a candidate)

I could look back at posts from 2019 etc and it would be the same thing posted where people were waking up to Indy and it was just around the corner.

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I'm talking professional polling with people like John Curtice taking account of various polls and coming to an educated conclusion, not a snapshot five minutes after Angela Rayner was chased up Larkhaw Main St and 10 minutes before Graeme Souness was wheeled in to support the local loyalist. That by-election was an outlier and the only winner, behind closed doors, was Reform.

This latest poll is interesting in the fact that SNP drop from 34% in the constituency to 26% in the list with The Greens gaining 5% from 2021 up to 15% and 1 point behind Reform, maybe people are waking up to the pitfalls of SNP 1 and 2.

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

I'm talking professional polling with people like John Curtice taking account of various polls and coming to an educated conclusion, not a snapshot five minutes after Angela Rayner was chased up Larkhaw Main St and 10 minutes before Graeme Souness was wheeled in to support the local loyalist. That by-election was an outlier and the only winner, behind closed doors, was Reform.

This latest poll is interesting in the fact that SNP drop from 34% in the constituency to 26% in the list with The Greens gaining 5% from 2021 up to 15% and 1 point behind Reform, maybe people are waking up to the pitfalls of SNP 1 and 2.

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Every poll and John Curtise vastly overestimated the SNP MPs at the election. Polls can only give an idea and you can never tell much from one poll but I guess they are ok at showing a trend in direction when grouped

Latest ipsos poll shows independence at 17th in the list of voter priorities these days:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuyZqb9X...g&name=900x900


https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...1_PUBLIC_1.pdf

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Originally Posted by Hibspur

Latest ipsos poll shows independence at 17th in the list of voter priorities these days:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuyZqb9X...g&name=900x900


https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/...1_PUBLIC_1.pdf

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But yes people are waking up to Indy more than ever...looks to me they are falling asleep. There was at one point a real movement for Independence with the various marches and the SNP winning big, that seems to have turned to apathy now and people realise it's a bit of a pipe dream now. As Smartie has said maybe the best thing for Indy is for the SNP to spend a bit of time in opposition again, get rid of the old guard who failed but are still running things and start again.

Independence isn't a current topic of much interest to the wider public - apart from on here! There is no imminent need for the public to consider it.

I'm surprised it made the list at all.

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Originally Posted by Jack

Independence isn't a current topic of much interest to the wider public - apart from on here! There is no imminent need for the public to consider it.

I'm surprised it made the list at all.

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Nobody discusses independence apart The Holy Ground?

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Originally Posted by Kato

Nobody discusses independence apart The Holy Ground?

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It's definitely less prominent in general discussion over the last maybe 2 years than it was prior to that, I'd say.

It dominated everything for at least a decade or so and has since quietened down.

I think Westminster's fairly definitive "no, ye cannae" has pretty much put it to bed in a lot of people's eyes for a while.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

It's definitely less prominent in general discussion over the last maybe 2 years than it was prior to that, I'd say.

It dominated everything for at least a decade or so and has since quietened down.

I think Westminster's fairly definitive "no, ye cannae" has pretty much put it to bed in a lot of people's eyes for a while.

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I agree. I said so on here elsewhere, people have more pressing matters.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

But yes people are waking up to Indy more than ever...looks to me they are falling asleep. There was at one point a real movement for Independence with the various marches and the SNP winning big, that seems to have turned to apathy now and people realise it's a bit of a pipe dream now. As Smartie has said maybe the best thing for Indy is for the SNP to spend a bit of time in opposition again, get rid of the old guard who failed but are still running things and start again.

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So let's get this straight, Independence is low on peoples priorities but those same people and a majority of Scots would vote for Independence tomorrow. The way things are going SNP will never spend time in opposition, there's just too many people support Independence along with people supporting them because they're the only party not controlled by the English Government. We're destined for a low turnout election with SNP being the largest party and another 5 years of rinse and repeat until the constitutional question is put to bed, either by unionist parties becoming Scottish only with no input from Westminster, full powers to the Scottish Parliament or a referendum.

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

So let's get this straight, Independence is low on peoples priorities but those same people and a majority of Scots would vote for Independence tomorrow. The way things are going SNP will never spend time in opposition, there's just too many people support Independence along with people supporting them because they're the only party not controlled by the English Government. We're destined for a low turnout election with SNP being the largest party and another 5 years of rinse and repeat until the constitutional question is put to bed, either by unionist parties becoming Scottish only with no input from Westminster, full powers to the Scottish Parliament or a referendum.

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First of all there is no English Government, doesn't exist. You may well believe that to be the case but it doesn't actually exist in reality.

I would disagree on your first statement, if there was an Indy Ref tomorrow I reckon No would win by a bigger margin than last time. It's very very easy to say Yes in an online poll or survey, the last poll from a few days ago when you took away Dont Know was Yes on 46%, that's using the same question as last time which there is no guarantee that would happen.

There is still so many unanswered questions and no resemblance of a plan.

I am often reminded of this sketch and I think this is quite true.

https://youtu.be/wihaFybOrKw?si=K9kfqD-GAxGB-WE1&utm_source=MTQxZ

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

First of all there is no English Government, doesn't exist. You may well believe that to be the case but it doesn't actually exist in reality.

I would disagree on your first statement, if there was an Indy Ref tomorrow I reckon No would win by a bigger margin than last time. It's very very easy to say Yes in an online poll or survey, the last poll from a few days ago when you took away Dont Know was Yes on 46%, that's using the same question as last time which there is no guarantee that would happen.

There is still so many unanswered questions and no resemblance of a plan.

I am often reminded of this sketch and I think this is quite true.

https://youtu.be/wihaFybOrKw?si=K9kf...m_source=MTQxZ

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Firstly you do you I'll do me, I firmly believe it's an English Government in everything but name only and I have strong legal opinion on my side to back that up, if you want to remain gaslit that's a shame but entirely up to you,

The table you posted was from the Ipsos poll yeh? Those very same people were asked "If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" So they literally were asked about a referendum tomorrow and a 52% majority said they'd vote yes. That's evidence and not just wishful thinking by yourself.

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

Firstly you do you I'll do me, I firmly believe it's an English Government in everything but name only and I have strong legal opinion on my side to back that up, if you want to remain gaslit that's a shame but entirely up to you,

The table you posted was from the Ipsos poll yeh? Those very same people were asked "If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" So they literally were asked about a referendum tomorrow and a 52% majority said they'd vote yes. That's evidence and not just wishful thinking by yourself.

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A poll in May had No ahead of yes, so did a poll in April and March so does that mean in May, April and March of 2025 a majority would have rejected Independence? It was 46% when you take away the Don't Knows but it's a single poll and actually for Ipsos it's the lowest score for Yes in 3 years for them.

Independence Polling – Ballot Box Scotland https://share.google/BECJKZJqWhEWAOLmw

There is no such thing as an English Government, the opinion of a single Lawyer who is a Scottish Nationalist counts for nothing at all. I will continue to not be gaslight but live in reality. The English Parliament that has 57 Scottish based MPs....we will just have to agree to disagree on this point but mine is based on the law and reality.

Why are some people always surprised that an SNP government will regularly push independence when that was it's sole aim when it was started.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

A poll in May had No ahead of yes, so did a poll in April and March so does that mean in May, April and March of 2025 a majority would have rejected Independence? It was 46% when you take away the Don't Knows but it's a single poll and actually for Ipsos it's the lowest score for Yes in 3 years for them.

There is no such thing as an English Government, the opinion of a retired Lawyer who is a Scottish Nationalist counts for nothing at all. I will continue to not be gaslight but live in reality. The English Parliament that has 57 Scottish based MPs....we will just have to agree to disagree on this point but mine is based on the law and reality.

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He's not a retired nationalist, he was a unionist for 59 of his 60 years in professional life and he still is a part time Judge, don't try and belittle him either, he doesn't deserve that considering his professional achievements. I'm not wasting anymore time on this, this is like an alcoholic trying to tell me the merits of keeping drinking, until you want to help yourself there's no point in me helping. When that time comes I'm here for ya mate, ya feel me bruh?

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

He's not a retired nationalist, he was a unionist for 59 of his 60 years in professional life and he still is a part time Judge, don't try and belittle him either, he doesn't deserve that considering his professional achievements. I'm not wasting anymore time on this, this is like an alcoholic trying to tell me the merits of keeping drinking, until you want to help yourself there's no point in me helping. When that time comes I'm here for ya mate, ya feel me bruh?

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Well said, your posts are always worth reading Andy.

GGTTH

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

He's not a retired nationalist, he was a unionist for 59 of his 60 years in professional life and he still is a part time Judge, don't try and belittle him either, he doesn't deserve that considering his professional achievements. I'm not wasting anymore time on this, this is like an alcoholic trying to tell me the merits of keeping drinking, until you want to help yourself there's no point in me helping. When that time comes I'm here for ya mate, ya feel me bruh?

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I just think you live in a fantasy land when it comes to this aspect of politics, like what you think about me I guess. Anyway little point talking about polls just now as there is no referendum happening anytime soon so I am quite happy living in reality for now. Cheers bruh.

The UK is a Conservative country that occasionally votes Labour. The next Tory/Reform government is just around the corner and with it an increased desire for independence. It's only a matter of time.

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

The UK is a Conservative country that occasionally votes Labour. The next Tory/Reform government is just around the corner and with it an increased desire for independence. It's only a matter of time.

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The current Labour govt can in no way be described as left of centre. So far they have only went after the old, disabled and poor while totally protecting the richest in society. And they are a year in so it’s a choice rather than timing.


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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

First of all there is no English Government, doesn't exist. You may well believe that to be the case but it doesn't actually exist in reality.

I would disagree on your first statement, if there was an Indy Ref tomorrow I reckon No would win by a bigger margin than last time. It's very very easy to say Yes in an online poll or survey, the last poll from a few days ago when you took away Dont Know was Yes on 46%, that's using the same question as last time which there is no guarantee that would happen.

There is still so many unanswered questions and no resemblance of a plan.

I am often reminded of this sketch and I think this is quite true.

https://youtu.be/wihaFybOrKw?si=K9kf...m_source=MTQxZ

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I don't disagree with your point re what would happen if a referendum were to be held tomorrow.

Unanswered questions and no plan I'm quite comfortable with though.

I agree with the idea of independence based on a bigger picture view. I want Scotland to be part of the EU (whether that is part of the UK or not) very badly. Going forward, the EU is going to be the leader of the free world, it is the future. I don't really have any great love for the idea of the UK being "Airstrip one", or Scotland being a nation badly in need of sorting our terrible demographic issues but having its immigration policy largely determined by the "we want are country back" morons who are perpetually pandered to down South.

Scotland's ability and satisfaction to do so little with so much is a constant frustration of mine. I'm sick of envying Denmark, Norway, Sweden. Even ******* Ireland is leaving us in the dust. We're in a state of decay and decline it is infuriating.

Except, of course, unless you're one of "the 5%". There's a quality of life on offer, a quality of education and health services here that are of a very high standard to those who can afford them. I fall just out of that and it is infuriating to see it, to know it exists, to think that it should really be available for everyone but for us to settle for our grimly, brutally, disgustingly unequal society.

Yes, we can bicker about using the pound but for me that misses the point. We could happily bicker about my EU point (the main one) but again that misses the point.

Necessity is the mother of invention and I believe Scots to have always had a knack for invention. We'd work it out. We just need to have to.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

First of all there is no English Government, doesn't exist. You may well believe that to be the case but it doesn't actually exist in reality.

I would disagree on your first statement, if there was an Indy Ref tomorrow I reckon No would win by a bigger margin than last time. It's very very easy to say Yes in an online poll or survey, the last poll from a few days ago when you took away Dont Know was Yes on 46%, that's using the same question as last time which there is no guarantee that would happen.

There is still so many unanswered questions and no resemblance of a plan.

I am often reminded of this sketch and I think this is quite true.

https://youtu.be/wihaFybOrKw?si=K9kf...m_source=MTQxZ

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This is the sort of nonsense phrase that can be filed alongside claims that Scotland's a colony ie best ignored rather than rising to it.

As someone who has gone from having an element of the respect for the SNP's political savvy under Salmond to loathing them, I'd be quite happy if they remain in government from an independence perspective as that ain't ever happening under such a bunch of duds. They have no idea how to move the dial there.

From the perspective of wanting to see Scotland better governed I'd like to see them disappear from view. And the irony is, the demise of the SNP would be the best thing for the independence movement. It's hard to imagine that a replacement vehicle for independence could be any less competent.

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Originally Posted by Hibspur

This is the sort of nonsense phrase that can be filed alongside claims that Scotland's a colony ie best ignored rather than rising to it.

As someone who has gone from having an element of the respect for the SNP's political savvy under Salmond to loathing them, I'd be quite happy if they remain in government from an independence perspective as that ain't ever happening under such a bunch of duds. They have no idea how to move the dial there.

From the perspective of wanting to see Scotland better governed I'd like to see them disappear from view. And the irony is, the demise of the SNP would be the best thing for the independence movement. It's hard to imagine that a replacement vehicle for independence could be any less competent.

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Hard to disagree with any of that analysis. I get your point about the irony of seeing the SNP getting booted out might be good in the short term but long term probably helps them for Independence. And I disagree it's only a matter of time as well as suggested by some, 10 years later and support has hardly shifted at all, if it's only a matter of time then it's looking like 2100 for IndyRef2 at this pace.

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Originally Posted by Hibspur

This is the sort of nonsense phrase that can be filed alongside claims that Scotland's a colony ie best ignored rather than rising to it.

As someone who has gone from having an element of the respect for the SNP's political savvy under Salmond to loathing them, I'd be quite happy if they remain in government from an independence perspective as that ain't ever happening under such a bunch of duds. They have no idea how to move the dial there.

From the perspective of wanting to see Scotland better governed I'd like to see them disappear from view. And the irony is, the demise of the SNP would be the best thing for the independence movement. It's hard to imagine that a replacement vehicle for independence could be any less competent.

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Are you arguing that there is an “English Government”?

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Originally Posted by Smartie

I don't disagree with your point re what would happen if a referendum were to be held tomorrow.

Unanswered questions and no plan I'm quite comfortable with though.

I agree with the idea of independence based on a bigger picture view. I want Scotland to be part of the EU (whether that is part of the UK or not) very badly. Going forward, the EU is going to be the leader of the free world, it is the future. I don't really have any great love for the idea of the UK being "Airstrip one", or Scotland being a nation badly in need of sorting our terrible demographic issues but having its immigration policy largely determined by the "we want are country back" morons who are perpetually pandered to down South.

Scotland's ability and satisfaction to do so little with so much is a constant frustration of mine. I'm sick of envying Denmark, Norway, Sweden. Even ******* Ireland is leaving us in the dust. We're in a state of decay and decline it is infuriating.

Except, of course, unless you're one of "the 5%". There's a quality of life on offer, a quality of education and health services here that are of a very high standard to those who can afford them. I fall just out of that and it is infuriating to see it, to know it exists, to think that it should really be available for everyone but for us to settle for our grimly, brutally, disgustingly unequal society.

Yes, we can bicker about using the pound but for me that misses the point. We could happily bicker about my EU point (the main one) but again that misses the point.

Necessity is the mother of invention and I believe Scots to have always had a knack for invention. We'd work it out. We just need to have to.

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When you get time watch these films Smartie. Once you watch one you'll struggle not to watch more. They give you an idea of what's possible when you're in charge of your own decisions. They're absolutely eye opening especially when it comes to education and social justice. Where money is the deciding factor over here it's provided by the state in these countries, yes they pay more tax but they also earn more or have a more thoughtful welfare state. The Estonian tax system and how they picked their Government, the Norwegian Summer houses along with Sweden whereby normal members of the population own a cabin on the Fjords they use for Summer breaks, the Danish education system where they send kids at 15 to a school away from home for a year to promote team building, state subsidised, Finland with the best education system in the world which doesn't test kids at all until 15yr old and also has the least teacher intervention of any system. All of them with infrastructures you wouldn't believe. Councils for every town who concentrate on their own areas not councils the size of Belgium like we have here. This aint a "Fantasyland" it's happening just next door to us in countries with less going for them.

Gaining Independence is the easy part, it's creating something great with it that's the difficult part and without being disrespectful to the SNP I don't think they're capable of that hence their shouldn't be an SNP plan that's down to a constitutional convention.

https://lesleyriddoch.com/films

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Originally Posted by Hibspur

This is the sort of nonsense phrase that can be filed alongside claims that Scotland's a colony ie best ignored rather than rising to it.

As someone who has gone from having an element of the respect for the SNP's political savvy under Salmond to loathing them, I'd be quite happy if they remain in government from an independence perspective as that ain't ever happening under such a bunch of duds. They have no idea how to move the dial there.

From the perspective of wanting to see Scotland better governed I'd like to see them disappear from view. And the irony is, the demise of the SNP would be the best thing for the independence movement. It's hard to imagine that a replacement vehicle for independence could be any less competent.

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And you're qualified to make that assumption or is it just an opinion of a self proclaimed loather of the SNP?

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Originally Posted by Andy Bee

When you get time watch these films Smartie. Once you watch one you'll struggle not to watch more. They give you an idea of what's possible when you're in charge of your own decisions. They're absolutely eye opening especially when it comes to education and social justice. Where money is the deciding factor over here it's provided by the state in these countries, yes they pay more tax but they also earn more or have a more thoughtful welfare state. The Estonian tax system and how they picked their Government, the Norwegian Summer houses along with Sweden whereby normal members of the population own a cabin on the Fjords they use for Summer breaks, the Danish education system where they send kids at 15 to a school away from home for a year to promote team building, state subsidised, Finland with the best education system in the world which doesn't test kids at all until 15yr old and also has the least teacher intervention of any system. All of them with infrastructures you wouldn't believe. Councils for every town who concentrate on their own areas not councils the size of Belgium like we have here. This aint a "Fantasyland" it's happening just next door to us in countries with less going for them.

Gaining Independence is the easy part, it's creating something great with it that's the difficult part and without being disrespectful to the SNP I don't think they're capable of that hence their shouldn't be an SNP plan that's down to a constitutional convention.

https://lesleyriddoch.com/films

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Why do you need Independence to send kids to school at a later age, test them at 15, send them away for 1 year etc? Education is fully devolved to the Scottish Parliament. We can even tax people more today in Scotland as the Scottish Parliament has the powers (as we already do)

Lesley Ridiculous as she is known is like me posting videos from Alex Massie or Stephen Daisley saying look at these and you will support the Union.

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Originally Posted by jamie_1875

Why do you need Independence to send kids to school at a later age, test then at 15, send them away for 1 year etc? Education is fully devolved to the Scottish Parliament. We can even tax people more today in Scotland as the Scottish Parliament has the powers (as we already do)

Lesley Ridiculous as she is known is like me posting videos from Alex Massie or Stephen Daisley saying look at these and you will support the Union.

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Like everything else it's on a fixed budget allocated to us from the English Government.

There you go again, trying to belittle the person involved rather than the content itself, you obviously didn't watch any of it you just came straight on here trying to character assassinate.

I suppose we must be better in the Union, where poor people are vilified and ghettoised, the national conversation constantly veers between outrage and triviality, patriotism is someone else's profit, refugees are othered to the point where people want to burn down the buildings in which they are kettled and the only social contract is in favour of the already rich.

I'm pretty ambivalent about independence but in a country that is organised and set-up for the extremely well off and every aspect is commodified towards cost rather than value, no-one is going to be happy and I can empathise with those who want out.

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