Brexit - What Now.

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10-10-2019, 10:28 PM
Ozyhibby

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

UK support will be debt which we have access too are far better rates than Ireland.

i’m not saying this is the preferred solution, far from it, but without a deal it’s going to happen. Everyone is going to get tax hikes (UK and EU) with an increased debt burden with no deal. People need to stop trying to overturn or block decisions already made and just make the deal and get it done.

longer this goes on, the more inevitable no deal becomes.

Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?

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10-10-2019, 10:44 PM
puff the dragon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Do we have access to far better rates than Ireland? Irish bonds rates are below zero.
Can we borrow cheaper than that?

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so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?
10-10-2019, 10:47 PM
Ozyhibby

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

so - on the independence thread you boast Ireland is booming but here you praise a policy implemented as a stimulation attempt as they are concerned about the economy.

not going to get many people jumping to invest in debt at negative interest rates.

so is it a good thing that Ireland have turned to the desperation of negative interest rates?

Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.

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10-10-2019, 11:09 PM
puff the dragon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Ireland is running a surplus, it’s not borrowing anything just now. But if they need to in the future, the rates will be lower than the uk because the debt burden in Ireland is lower.

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running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.
10-10-2019, 11:20 PM
Ozyhibby

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

running a surplus and borrowing are not the same thing.

they are running a surplus because they have put measures in to stimulate the economy - hence negative interest rates.

they have debt - just the 230 billion euros or 48k per head https://commodity.com/debt-clock/ireland/ (compared to UK 1.8 trillion pounds or £33k per head)

your statement sounds better for your argument tho so who cares about reality.

Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.

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11-10-2019, 05:47 AM
puff the dragon

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Or you could put it as Irish debt = 68% of gdp compared with UK debt = 86% of gdp.
And the UK’s debt is still rising. Ireland are reducing theirs.

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We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)
11-10-2019, 06:09 AM
lapsedhibee

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

We've been over GDP - Ireland's is higher year on year due to stimulation measures like negative interest rates increasing output. They have the challenge of keeping output at that level - if they do them good for them,

This is the problem with these selective stats:
Is Ireland's GDP higher per head than Scotland in 2018? - yes
Is Ireland's debt as a % of GDP lower than that of the U.K. For 2018? yes
What does that mean? - in reality very little, but to a Scottish independence or EU remain propagandist it means Ireland is booming as an independent nation because that's what they want to see.

These are statements you will never see the SNP release or a credible EU remain politician as they don't stand up to scrutiny despite being factually correct. They are happy for the loyal to spout them to anyone who will listen tho.

I wouldn't be anti Scottish independence if the evidence was there to support it - the problem is it isn't and nobody is properly answering the questions. If you want to win any rerun of 2014 then the people you need to convince are not going to blindly accept these statements without proper scrutiny as they were burned in 2016.

As for EU, we are where we are - the vote has been run and there is no point having it again (an overturn would only increase division). In my opinion it's time to draw a line under it, get a deal and move in. This will be the EU and UKs desire so one will be struck next week. We then leave the EU treaties but will find ourselves effectively living under the same rules we do today anyway rendering the whole thing pointless (but over)

Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.
11-10-2019, 06:17 AM
puff the dragon

Quote:

Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Doubt if it will be over, and the cause of that will be the Leave crazies who have deliberately, calculatedly, stoked up divisions so that they could 'win'.

over from the point of view that the referendum result has been implemented and we’ve avoided falling off the no-deal cliff.

fixing the divisions on the other hand has nothing to do with brexit and would require some investment and time into looking at the causes of such divisions (which won’t be done as it’s too hard and would mean one side actually having to talk to the other side with respect and like human beings - something severely lacking in all sides of society).
11-10-2019, 06:42 AM
grunt

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

It will never be over.
11-10-2019, 07:21 AM
Hibbyradge

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

not denying they will find other routes - the point is they would rather not. Combined with keeping their large % of exports to their closest neighbour tariff free they need a deal.

everyone is poorer with a no deal brexit, it won’t be risked so a deal will be struck for the 31st. This is the point I’m making - I’m not making a leave or remain argument, just commenting on what is actually going to happen.

I agree with you up to the bit about 31 October.

All the same problems existed in March, but we didn't find a last minute deal then.

There are noises about a "pathway" to a deal, but I continue to have my doubts.
11-10-2019, 08:06 AM
Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...0800992658.jpg

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11-10-2019, 08:14 AM
SHODAN

Quote:

Originally Posted by puff the dragon

on the 1st of November it’s all over and we move on

If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:
11-10-2019, 08:54 AM
Cataplana

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diclonius

If we've left on the 1st of November then I, and many others, will immediately be starting the campaign to rejoin. You can bet on that. :aok:

Start now by telling me why that will be better for me. I think I'm happier in the EU, but I don't really know why.
11-10-2019, 08:55 AM
Cataplana

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...0800992658.jpg

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Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!
11-10-2019, 08:59 AM
Ozyhibby

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cataplana

Irish minister last night talking about how much of taxation is self assessed. I think they are close to an agreement. Deal with the tax avoidance later!

Crucial for the Tories. They could go along with just about anything so long as they don’t have to pay tax.

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11-10-2019, 11:24 AM
Pretty Boy

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.
11-10-2019, 12:04 PM
lapsedhibee

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

Headline says bad border is a dangerous myth, and article says a border would be bad. :confused:
11-10-2019, 12:08 PM
southsider

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/1...mpression=true

This is quite a decent take on the Irish border issue. It's an interesting alternative perspective that paints a picture of the complexity of the situation.

Very pro Tory / Unionist piece.
11-10-2019, 12:47 PM
Ozyhibby

Sounds like it’s the UK who has caved to get the talks moved on. EU says their position remains unchanged.

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11-10-2019, 01:27 PM
Pretty Boy

Quote:

Originally Posted by southsider

Very pro Tory / Unionist piece.

I assumed that went without saying given the source.

I still find it interesting to read an opinion and perspective from the other side even if it's not something I agree with.
11-10-2019, 01:42 PM
Mibbes Aye

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

I assumed that went without saying given the source.

I still find it interesting to read an opinion and perspective from the other side even if it's not something I agree with.

:agree: I subscribe to the Telegraph website and try and read ConservativeHome once a day on that basis. Being confident in your view means being able to feel challenged and understand why.
11-10-2019, 02:11 PM
Fife-Hibee

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cataplana

Start now by telling me why that will be better for me. I think I'm happier in the EU, but I don't really know why.

The freedom to live, work or simply travel across most of Europe with next to no barriers. Free trade as opposed to tariff trade. Each member has an equal veto, regardless of their respected size, something that would never exist at Westmister. An independent Scotland in the EU has a considerably more powerful Scottish parliament than what we have right now. The European Union rivals that of both the US and China, which protects small nations like ours from being pressured into accepting shoddy trade deals. Then you have thousands of pieces of legislation ('red tape' as brexiteers see it) that protect things such as workers rights, food standards and trading standards. Businesses can expand over 28 countries without visa requirements or immigration barriers.

These are just a few things. Here's a list of reasons why the UK should never have "chosen" to leave the European Union. - https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/remain-eu/
11-10-2019, 02:13 PM
Ozyhibby

And Alex Massie is one of the best writers on the independence debate IMO even though I share very little of his views on that subject.

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11-10-2019, 03:12 PM
DaveF

Lloyds shares up almost 12% today. Maybe I should sell before the talks collapse.
11-10-2019, 04:57 PM
JeMeSouviens

Farage getting ready to call betrayal:

Quote:

Nigel Farage @Nigel_Farage

I don't know what @BorisJohnson
has given away, but he sounds very defensive. Let us hope that this is not a surrender.
11-10-2019, 05:18 PM
Moulin Yarns

There is still a Downside, but it's alright according to Cataplana, we don't want immigration!

A Home Office minister said EU citizens may be forced to leave the UK if they do not sign up to the EU settlement scheme by the end of 2020

https://t.co/01m9MSqjtU
11-10-2019, 07:46 PM
cabbageandribs1875

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1570795617

Unionists have vowed to kill off any Brexit deal which keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union, amid fears that Boris Johnson is ready to make the province a “sacrificial lamb” to secure an agreement with Brussels.

i'm thinking loudmouth big shot johnson has bent over, i'l do this, i'l do that
11-10-2019, 07:55 PM
Smartie

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...box=1570795617

Unionists have vowed to kill off any Brexit deal which keeps Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union, amid fears that Boris Johnson is ready to make the province a “sacrificial lamb” to secure an agreement with Brussels.

i'm thinking loudmouth big shot johnson has bent over, i'l do this, i'l do that

Do the DUP have the power to do that?

They're just another wee party now all those Tories have deserted the government, are they not?

Are they not just another 8 votes?
11-10-2019, 08:00 PM
cabbageandribs1875

Quote:

Originally Posted by Smartie

Do the DUP have the power to do that?

They're just another wee party now all those Tories have deserted the government, are they not?

Are they not just another 8 votes?

according to that link they can :dunno:

The DUP’s reaction to any agreement is likely to be crucial because it cannot be passed without their MPs’ votes, and because many Tory Brexiteers have in the past taken their lead from the Northern Irish party.
12-10-2019, 07:14 AM
lapsedhibee

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875

The DUP’s reaction to any agreement is likely to be crucial because it cannot be passed without their MPs’ votes, and because many Tory Brexiteers have in the past taken their lead from the Northern Irish party.

Rees Mogg has frequently publicly spouted that the ERG will only agree to stuff if the DUP are ok with it, but never explained why. I don't believe that most of the ERG care that much about The Precious Union. The DUP aren't in any way representative of Norniron as a whole - perhaps it's that fact, that they're an unrepresentative minority too, that fuels the bond.

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