Brexit - What Now.

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.

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I think Farage has said, the Brexit party will only stand down if the Tories campaign for “No Deal”, anything less and they are going toe to toe with the Tories.

J

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

Despite some of the responses to you, I can see where you are coming from with your first few points.

But I don’t think the EU want the UK leaving, that is calamitous.

The fault line over Ireland will trigger an extension and a general election will follow. It feels hard to see how a referendum doesn’t arise as a consequence of the election, whatever the outcome - or the election becomes a referendum as such. Even if Boris and Farage unite on a no-deal platform it is doubtful whether they will secure a parliamentary majority.

I really didn’t want to live in such interesting times.

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i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).

The 2nd GE fought as a ‘referendum rerun’ in the event of an extension is absolutely going to happen. Only issue is first past the post skews it massively as BoJo only needs about 38% in reality as opposed to 50.1% (see the SNP in 2015 returning 95% of the seats on around 40%). That’s why I think the EU will see it in everybody’s interest it’s done and dusted this month - it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back and he’ll either leave immediately or sit back and veto every piece of business the EU try to do.

the general election campaign started as a precaution to the EU granting an extension. I doubt very much Merkel said anything of the sort to BoJo that she is attributed to yesterday, however a ‘Downing street insider’ has leaked it so now it’s fact. You are already seeing how leave UK and the rest of the media are treating something which is unattributed to any individual in authority and I can only imagine how the daily mail are treating it today. The core Tory support won’t accept the Germans telling us how to govern the UK so will be riled in BoJo’s favour, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant now.

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Originally Posted by Bristolhibby

I think Farage has said, the Brexit party will only stand down if the Tories campaign for “No Deal”, anything less and they are going toe to toe with the Tories.

J

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Agree so farage is an irrelevance in this - Boris would stand on a no deal ticket so Brexit party as finished as UKIP

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back

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Despite commentators saying that Johnson's bad behaviour is 'priced in', I think if he's found to have been channelling taxpayers' money to his special friend then he might not be coming back.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Despite commentators saying that Johnson's bad behaviour is 'priced in', I think if he's found to have been channelling taxpayers' money to his special friend then he might not be coming back.

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i don’t think anyone really cares about that apart from people who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

i don’t think anyone really cares about that apart from people who wouldn’t vote for him anyway.

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It’s against the law. It’s not about votes. It’s about whether he can avoid being charged.


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

i see where you are with the 2nd referendum but I see little point in holding one if the 1st result isn’t respected. Any 2nd referendum would be a ‘should we rejoin the EU?’ Question. Agree with brexit or not, serious questions would arise about our democracy if 17 million people instruct the government to do something and they don’t (Tory and labour know this so won’t seriously push for it as their parties will be dead in the sea).

The 2nd GE fought as a ‘referendum rerun’ in the event of an extension is absolutely going to happen. Only issue is first past the post skews it massively as BoJo only needs about 38% in reality as opposed to 50.1% (see the SNP in 2015 returning 95% of the seats on around 40%). That’s why I think the EU will see it in everybody’s interest it’s done and dusted this month - it’s highly likely BoJo is coming back and he’ll either leave immediately or sit back and veto every piece of business the EU try to do.

the general election campaign started as a precaution to the EU granting an extension. I doubt very much Merkel said anything of the sort to BoJo that she is attributed to yesterday, however a ‘Downing street insider’ has leaked it so now it’s fact. You are already seeing how leave UK and the rest of the media are treating something which is unattributed to any individual in authority and I can only imagine how the daily mail are treating it today. The core Tory support won’t accept the Germans telling us how to govern the UK so will be riled in BoJo’s favour, whether they actually did or not is irrelevant now.

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Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

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Originally Posted by Speedy

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

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The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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spot on - and there is no appetite for that for 2 reasons:

1) it’s too close to call. No deal is a disaster and if they shouldn’t have asked the first question then they absolutely shouldn’t ask for the cliff edge.

2) remain solves nothing - we can’t move on as a country due to the divisions. We’ll appoint a euro sceptic government who will do nothing but obstruct EU business (look at what the SNP do at Westminster and hollyrood but multiply this impact by 100 as the UK can veto anything it likes in the EU)

the UK and EU only move on from this with a deal and brexit happening. That’s why we’ll get one for a leave on 31st.

if we learn one thing as a country then 2016 should be the last referendum we ever hold.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The brexiteers don’t want the deal on offer so the referendum has to be on no deal v remain. No point putting something on the ballot that nobody wants.


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If nobody wants it then it'll receive no votes and it'll make no difference having it on there.

If some do want it then at least they get their chance to say so. Assuming that was the smallest vote they their second preference counts.

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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

spot on - and there is no appetite for that for 2 reasons:

1) it’s too close to call. No deal is a disaster and if they shouldn’t have asked the first question then they absolutely shouldn’t ask for the cliff edge.

2) remain solves nothing - we can’t move on as a country due to the divisions. We’ll appoint a euro sceptic government who will do nothing but obstruct EU business (look at what the SNP do at Westminster and hollyrood but multiply this impact by 100 as the UK can veto anything it likes in the EU)

the UK and EU only move on from this with a deal and brexit happening. That’s why we’ll get one for a leave on 31st.

if we learn one thing as a country then 2016 should be the last referendum we ever hold.

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The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

The SNP obstructs business at Holyrood? :confused:

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everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

If Westminster had paid any attention at all to what happens in Brussels we might not be here.


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

everytime they debate something that is not devolved they are obstructing holyrood business (I.e. items of foreign policy)

they have MP’s at Westminster to debate those

point is - the UK government would be exactly the same in the EU

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So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

So every time anyone in the UK parliament mentions, for example, a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, they are wasting parliamentary time/obstructing the business of the UK parliament, because it's not currently in the UK's power to make a post-Brexit trade deal with the US - is that your argument? :dunno:

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yes - they are.

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/st...392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/brunobrussels/st...392503296?s=21

Eu make an offer of time limited back stop.

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Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Brexiter on that thread asking if a double majority means the Irish would have to vote twice. :faf:

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It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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Originally Posted by puff the dragon

There is only one outcome here chaps - we leave the EU on 31st October WITH a deal.

* all the news today about the BoJo proposals being unworkable are a mixture of misinformation deliberately ‘leaked’ to the media and chest beating by officials in the early stages of negotiation (deals are struck at the last minute - not on day 1)
* the EU are sick of brexit and want it done - BoJo is not daft enough to not leave wriggle room in his proposal so there is lots to work with
* the compromises the EU will make will result in an ultimatum to parliament to either take the deal, leave with no deal or revoke article 50 (and the later 2 is unsupportable by all bar SNP MP’s)
* BoJo knows he’ll get his deal through Parliament as he’ll have engaged enough sensible labour MP’s.
* why would the EU grant an extension when a monkey could work out it would return BoJo with a landslide majority government on a ‘no deal’ ticket.
* the deal will be approved by Ireland (as they won’t veto it in the EU) and the UK so no issues with the good Friday agreement. Only the SNP will feel hard done by that Northern Ireland get a nice power and they are irrelevant in this vote/debate as the UK government could announce the Earth is round and they’d disagree
* BoJo is still adamant publicly we’re leaving on the 31st - he doesn’t back losers - everything to date is part of his plan.

16/1 leave with a deal on Ladbrokes.......

after the deal is struck:
* general election
* BoJo destroys all opposition parties for the surrender bill, the court case and incorrect judges verdict (which will be incorrect if he gets a deal) and for not backing Britain
* BoJo wins in a landslide

Far to often do people dismiss this man as a bumbling Buffon - he is anything but and all opponents have taken the bait.

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Disagree, it's an oblate spheroid. :wink::greengrin

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK. And because it’s time limited the UK should be ok with it. Except they won’t be.


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Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

It’s a nice little trap set by the EU and Ireland. Will mean NI will constantly be tied closer to Ireland than the UK.

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Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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Originally Posted by Speedy

Don't want to get in to a big debate about it,as I think we're too far gone to actually reach a positive outcome at this stage, but I think a second referendum is the best way to resolve.

Vote in order of preference on no deal, specific deal, remain. If no overall majority then lowest tally is eliminated with their second preference deciding the outcome. Will there be outcry if remain wins, absolutely. However it would also show that leave at all costs isn't what the country wants. Conversely, if a version of leave wins then it is clear - no objections based on differing views on how we leave or any claims of protest votes etc., just a clear mandate to deliver it.

The problem with another referendum is that it is vague. There are multiple policies at play so it doesn't provide a clear mandate. Who does a Tory leaning remain voter opt for for example?

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I'm not in favour of preference voting. I think it would be clearer to have 2 votes (like the French presidential elections).

Week 1 - choose a Leave option. An actually agreed deal vs No deal. Key here is both options must be achievable (however catastrophic) with no wishful thinking.
Week 2 - chosen Leave option vs Remain.

MPs to sit on Saturday Oct 19th where I think Johnson will be trying to get No Deal approved.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49984367

Rebel alliance needs to get its act together fast.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Chances of the nationalist side of NI agreeing to leave the EU's (and thus Ireland's) regulatory orbit? Absolutely stone cold nil. It's as much of a compromise as the UK proposal, ie. almost not at all

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But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Well they stopped the people of Scotland deciding on our fate.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

But it does leave the decision entirely to the people of NI so from the EU point of view they are offering a time limited back stop which is what the brexiteers say they wanted. And who could be against the people of NI having control over their own futures?


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Yes, it's good politics. Unfortunately the DUP are not going to be swayed by good politics, the toys will be out the pram regardless.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Things are not as simple as that though. Remember that Johnson is going to put physical infrastructure in the Irish Sea to permanently link Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

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Originally Posted by southsider

His bridge between NI and Scotland would need the greatest feat of engineering ever known. Why not put a ladder to the moon while ur at it.

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It would need giant rungs to let the flying pigs through.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

The Court of Session delays ruling on the latest Brexit case (enforcement of the Benn act) until Oct 21 to see what Johnson & co do in the meantime.

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That's Bojo's card marked.