Aye, look at morrissey! 🤣Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
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Aye, look at morrissey! 🤣Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg
very much hope you're right :aok:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Caught the tail end of the news this morning and Trump is ahead in four of the seven swing states. That’s depressing news.
Depends what states. If it doesn’t include MI, WI or PA then it’s all good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim44
No votes counted yet though. I’m convinced polls are wrong anyway.
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In Ozy we trustQuote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
People who know me well don’t trust me.[emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
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The next POTUS? God help us all.
Quote:
“When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy. They say, oh, he brings up these names out of— Well, that's genius. Right. Doctor Hannibal Lecter. There's nobody worse than him. Silence of the Lambs. Who the hell else would even remember that? I have a great memory, but they always hit me. I don't bring it up too much because they have to take such a— he brought up Hannibal Lecter. What does that have to do with this? What is it? It has everything to do with it, right? He was… So I've done something for you for you that I haven't done in 20 speeches. I brought up Doctor Hannibal Lecter and we're allowing him, you watch, you watch these fake people will say again, he brought up Hannibal Lecter has absolutely nothing to do. You know I do the weave, right? The weave. It's genius. You bring up Hannibal Lecter, you mention insane asylum. Hannibal Lecter. You go out, no. There'll be a time in life where the weave won't finish properly at the bottom and then we can talk. But right now it's pure genius. Hey, I have an uncle, my uncle, Uncle John, my father's brother, 41 years at MIT, longest serving professor has so many degrees, he didn't know what the hell to do with them all in the most complicated. I understand a lot of this stuff, you know, I believe in that. Like, I mean, Jack Nicklaus is not gonna produce a bad golfer. Right. You know, that's the way it works. It's just one of those things and it's in the family and it's whatever”
Trump has often claimed his genius comes from his genes, but I'm not so sure. We don't have any evidence that his uncle John ever actually managed to say Person, Woman, Man, Camera, TV in exactly that order.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
https://x.com/acyn/status/1852774101...dxJXScFNwz8V4AQuote:
Originally Posted by grunt
It’s a fascinating watch.
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https://x.com/uspollingwatch/status/...dxJXScFNwz8V4A
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The Democrats are celebrating a poll that has Harris two percentage points ahead of Trump in Iowa... on the same day that a different poll had Trump ahead by nine points in the same state.
I think it's best to ignore the polls and just wait to see what the result is.
I'd disregard single polls but there is a massive difference. The poll that had Trump 9 ahead generally has Republic almost a dozen points ahead because they mainly ask republicans so can be disregarded anyway. Selzer is one of the most accurate polls usually, it had Trump well ahead in Iowa last time when he won there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
The margin of error is 3% so could go either way. The thing is though Trump should be about 8 ahead here so that's the interesting point. It also looks from the data women are turning out and massively voting Dem. Looks like abortion is going to play a big part in this election
BBC Poll tracker for what its worth.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4x71znwxdo
I only posted this because of the quality of the pollster and the fact that she only does Iowa and her track record is impeccable. And it agrees with me.[emoji6][emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
I think most polls are basing female turnout on previous elections (what else can they do?) and this election is the first since Roe was overturned.
I also think republicans are flooding the market with biased polls which is mucking up all the averages.
Finally I think the polling companies have over corrected for under estimating Trump last time.
All adds up to me thinking they are massively wrong.
We’ll find out Wednesday morning and as long as she wins I won’t care if I’m right or wrong.[emoji1696][emoji1696][emoji1696]
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The track record of those polls are not equal. I agree though, don’t look at polls now. Look at turnout and the demographics of who has already voted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
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Personally I’ve been ignoring polls and tracking betting odds and bookies tend not to be far off when there’s money involved. Off course they could be an element of enticing people to bet a certain way. Sky bet still have Trump as the favourite but odds have shortened. Harris was big favourite on the odds not long after Biden dropped out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Bookies odds only reflect the amount of money placed on a candidate. If Musk decides to bet $20m on Trump tomorrow his odds would get even shorter still without changes whether he is likely to win or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul1642
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Economist had a good piece on the Iowa poll. Basically it’s pretty good at predicting Iowa (4/5) and by how much.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
The real ‘excitement’ is that it has an odd way of predicting a few of the swing states. When applying the swing percentage predicted in Iowa to the likes of Wisconsin it’s been oddly accurate there as well.
The piece clearly pointed out that using Iowa polls for a different state should come with a huge dose of salt and that the recent accuracy and f doing so may well be a fluke (the poll has been running a long time but is largely not digitised so back testing can’t happen). But it has been rather accurate recently so may well be again!
Take from that what you may…
Buy shares in bleach if Trump gets in Toosday.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
a cure for Covid :agree:
i mean, well, i, oh fgs
https://scontent.fman1-2.fna.fbcdn.n...0Q&oe=672DB454
Abortion laws absolutely should be a big part. Utterly backward and cruel.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stairway 2 7
https://www.thetimes.com/article/314...c6c883d7e86ccf
Surprising? Not really I reckon.
"Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.
A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.
That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark"
I don't believe it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
The poll gives numbers of those polled for the whole of GB. Here's the summary results from the YouGov website - figures for GB polling. I suspect that the Scottish numbers have been made up to enable the Times to create a story.
Maybe they polled the Scots portion in and around Ayrshire.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
I agree with you, looks like rubbish. I'm surprised Jamie isn't surprised.
So you believe they sat around a table and decided to make up some polling numbers? All the journalists and the Editors and the polling company Norsat who are one of the leading data collectors in the Europe all got together to make this up and then decided to rope in the University of Glasgow who also agreed to the fake numbers just to create a story?Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
I mean I guess it could happen.
They won’t have made anything up. I suspect it’s maybe a Scottish subsample of the whole UK poll and therefore not very reliable.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
I’d be very surprised if any nation in the UK differed much on opinions on Trump.
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Yes. It's The Times, it's what they do.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
There you go.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
It could be true. Scotland still has a greater alcohol problem than rUK, I think. Trump doesn't drink alcohol but much of the time he sounds as if he's pished, and perception counts. There could be a 'he's one of us!' effect going on, particularly with the Scots maw.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
That's it. I've finally become Victor Meldrew.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
It's probably around 200 Scots so less than France ect. I agree to small a number to be accurate but gives a rough idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Saying a European wide pole from respected pollsters and universities made it up is utterly ridiculous though.
Would be amazed if that was the case unless there survey was taken outside IbroxQuote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
How can they come out with that lineQuote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
Would guess that the Scotland results are unweighted.Quote:
Originally Posted by grunt
Some folk are maybe on the wind up, I'd probably have said I would vote for him purely just to noise people up
I grew up in a small town, most of my "mates" growing up would be Rangers fans.
TBH, given where they've ended up politically, this would be of absolutely no surprise to me whatsoever.
They love him, he speaks their language - f'ing nonsense.
Does anyone really care what opinions irrational Scots have about Trump?
Or is that really relevant to Americans of Scottish descent and how they might vote in the election?
It helps the Times push the idea that Scotland is not more progressive than rUK, and that the progressive political parties who do so well in Scotland (eg Labour and SNP) don't reflect the views of real Scottish people. This is Telegraph level BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim44
Figures showed that 56% of Scottish residents supported Kamala Harris –*
That's not the headline though! 🤔
Exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Smartie
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Spot on.Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
The Times and the Daily Record and The National and all the other newspapers that ran with the story?Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
It was covered in the article the point you are making, I am guessing you refuse to believe the polling expert but he makes his point below.
Mark McGeoghegan, a polling and politics expert at the University of Glasgow, said the results should not be surprising.
“For decades, we have stuck to the myth that we are more left-wing and socially liberal than our neighbours, a story that, for the pro-independence wing of Scottish politics, feeds a sense that our different politics justifies independence. But it is just that, a story.
“The sense that Scotland is more immune to Trump’s brand of right-wing populism than other parts of the UK is rooted in the fact that Thatcherism and deindustrialisation rendered the Conservatives toxic north of the border and that the SNP chose to target Labour and Labour voters. The legacy is a party system that is more left-leaning than most, but not an electorate that is.
McGeoghegan said there was as much demand for right-wing populism in Scotland as anywhere else in Europe.
This is not just on the unionist side, he said. He added: “It makes sense that Scots attracted to independence — a form of outsider politics that promises to solve tough problems with a simple solution — might also be attracted to Trump.”
He concluded: “While not surprising, this should be concerning. Trump’s politics are not just right-wing populist but authoritarian. We should all be deeply worried that he could take a quarter of Scots.”
But as pointed out the sample size is small.
The MSM feeds on itself to generate news. Big deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
Have a look at his articles online. He's one of these experts who is expert at sitting on the fence. "It could mean this, or it could mean that." He allows the media to twist his views into any shape that meets their needs.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
Rubbish. Complete bollocks. If anything, the SNP membership is more left leaning than the party leadership.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
Have you ever read such rubbish?Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
Indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
You're guessing wrong. I have no opinion whatsoever on how accurate the polling was. I wouldn't be surprised if a certain demographic in Scotland prefers Trump because of his orangeness. But the idea that Scotland as a whole is not relatively 'progressive' but repeatedly votes to be governed by 'progressive' parties and never votes to be governed by non-'progressive' parties is just bizarre.Quote:
Originally Posted by jamie_1875
more than 78m have now voted
oh dear not another one, he's a fantastic businessman isn't he Popular Liberal 🇺🇸 on X: "WOW! Major news: Donald Trump is on the brink of his seventh bankruptcy! With a staggering $1.8B in debt and only around $400 million in cash, it's crystal clear why he and Elon Musk are so desperate for the White House. "What does Elmo get out of it? Blank taxpayers' welfare https://t.co/qUwaChLYga" / X
I would love this to be true but his stake in his social media company is back up to £3-£4 billion and he can now cash in his shares.Quote:
Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875
I don’t think there will be any real buyers at that price.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
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Absolutely the reason it is doneQuote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
Somebody must be buying if the shares have shot up. They were down massively when his tie was due to end, his stake was about £1 billion then, but as his odds of winning have increased so has the stock.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Even if he unloads 25% of his holding, it’s still a billion-ish. Depressing
Depends on the volume of sales? Is it actually being traded in large volumes? If not then it’s unlikely he could off load a $billion worth.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
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Well todays the day, polls are officially open.
The rational approach would be to say Harris will win fairly comfortably.
Hopefully the American public send a big **** you to Trump and he spends the rest of his days dying slowly on a golf course.
I’d prefer jail.[emoji1696]Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
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A bit like the idea of the Black Knights taking full control, we can but hope but until it happens I won't believe it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
The SFA wouldn’t allow it anyway. Oops wrong thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
CNN digging up plenty of republican voters switching sides. Expected stuff but they are overdoing it a bit. I suppose Fox will be 50 times worse but I ain't flipping to that channel.
In fairness they’ve also spoke to a fair few trump voters. Who I guessed before they confirmed [emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
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I've been watching the queues and trying to pick out the Trump supporters. Good guy, good guy, ****, good guyQuote:
Originally Posted by CallumLaidlaw
A 3:1 “good guy:****” ratio would be more than acceptable here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibby70
I’m actually crazily anxious about this. I know it’s been said and said again but this feels like one of the most consequential events of our lifetimes.
The most powerful country in the world and a historical ally is choosing between 2 drastically different paths.
Someone I know and whose opinion I trust was downplaying the effect that he thought “just one man” could have in a nation with institutions as strong as America.
Then I heard Trump’s detailed description of his dismantling of the “deep state”…
So we have two possible outcomes:
1) Trump wins and becomes a manic president determined to exact revenge on his 'enemies'
2) Trump loses, then him and Musk convince loads of their nutjob followers the election was stolen, with the risk of an(other) insurrection and a near civil war situation in parts of the US.
Neither options sound very appealing.
Option 2 please.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
Was telling my wife this morning that ozyhibby says we are safe from Trump, she then told her parents who maybe told their friends.
No pressure ozy
Option 2 is not a problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
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I’m sitting here racked with self doubt as well. [emoji51][emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
I have family living in the US, it is a problem for them
(2) David Corn on X: "Happy Election Day. I was at one of Trump's final rallies, and die-hard Trump supporters told me that they will not accept a Harris win as legitimate and that if Trump is declared the loser we can expect violence. Here's my report from Pennsylvania: https://t.co/eWOGhncico" / X
i hope the cops use force, a LOT of force if pumpkin heids fanboys/girls storm it this time around, and i'd be fair gutted if any stray bullet found it's way to Trump, although that bullet would have to travel quite a bit to find him cowering away somewhere after inciting it all
not a bad description
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbnAs6XX...jpg&name=large
Republicans seem confident on the basis of the early vote numbers. Not seeing that same degree of confidence from the Harris camp.
I read about the trump tactics this week. They are expecting him to declare victory in the early hours no matter what. The democrats have a plan to counter it seemingly.Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveF
FBI etc are on high alert.
I’m hoping the republican early optimism is a strategy rather than actual numbers based.
It’s very trump to come out and say they are extremely confident, in fact he wouldn’t say anything else.
First exit polls due in 25 mins according to CNN
It won’t happen though. US law enforcement is too powerful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
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Always thought it was a lose-lose situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith_M
Boris Johnson on channel 4 FFS
How the **** can this be so close?
Murica.Quote:
Originally Posted by Northernhibee
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It might not be. We’ll know in a couple of hours.Quote:
Originally Posted by Northernhibee
Flicking between CNN and Sky. Nervous.
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Hmmmmmm........https://www.rangersreview.co.uk/auth...k_McGeoghegan/Quote:
Originally Posted by lapsedhibee
The state of democracy the most important issue for US voters, then the economy, then abortion, then immigration, then foreign policy a distant fifthQuote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
Kamala voters more likely to care about 1 and 3, Trump voters 2 and 4.
And 1 and 3 add up to 49% so that’s good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Northernhibee
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Trump cult also like to claim they are protecting democracy as well though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozyhibby
However, if the messaging on tariffs have broke through, then the economy could end up benefitting harris.
Now sitting with Stormy Daniels 😂Quote:
Originally Posted by Hibs4185
and millions upon millions will vote for IT, there's a distinct lack of a moral compass in Yankland
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbjYYQjW...jpg&name=small
Just when you think it isn't going to get any more surreal...Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
Boris Johnson is an absolute twat isn't he
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He is, but I prefer when Maitlis lets him speak and show us all exactly how much of a twat he is.Quote:
Originally Posted by Callum_62
It's been a tough watch in places a he gibbers away trying to get his words out.
The bbc live tracker has Trump with double the votes Harris has which makes me feel a bit sick.
200k votes counted but still 😂
And in Indiana and Kentucky.[emoji23]Quote:
Originally Posted by Jones28
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Independents in Georgia flocking to Trump.
Not good.
J
i'm not watching any TV but this is funny, a Grade A tozzer of a man, a pwick Boris Johnson ‘fired’ from Channel 4 US election coverage | The National
BORIS Johnson has been “fired for banging on about his book” during a guest appearance on Channel 4’s coverage of the US election, according to the programme’s co-host Krishnan Guru-Murthy.
The former UK prime minister was told off for holding up his memoir and plugging it just minutes into the live programme titled America Decides: US Presidential Election.
Channel 4 newsreader Guru-Murthy told Johnson to “put it away” and “stop it, enough” as he twice referenced his new book and attempted to hold it up to viewers.
Guru-Murthy described the former prime minister’s actions as “so cheap”.
Polls looking right. It’s going to be close.[emoji51]
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I said before that I like to keep a track on betting odds.
Trump is now as low as 4/11 and Harris up to 9/4.
I don’t bet at all but if I did £50 on Harris to get £162 back would be tempting.
I think Trump will win.
to win popular vote
2/5 Harris
2/1 pumpkin heid
Trump overtakes Harris in Pennsylvania
win that and it's curtains for decency
NY Times forecasting 78% chance that Trump wins
Oh well, off to bed and hope better news when I get up tomorrow
Trump is cruising this.
Looks grim. Still hopeful that blue wall holds.[emoji1696]Quote:
Originally Posted by BS44
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This is looking horrible. How depressing.
Pray for Ozzy :pray:
Joking aside I've been disappointed by election results plenty times, referendums etc totally gutted but I think this is the first election I've ever witnessed that's genuinely giving me a level of fear.
Not looking great. Hopefully like last time and blue pips red at the posts.