Originally Posted by
Mibbes Aye
And before we know it here comes the Fourth Test!
Both teams announced early, so no speculation there. Australia look like they are cognisant of the weather and are geared up to bat, bat and bat, by finding room for Marsh and Green, at the expense of the young spinner Todd Murphy. I don't think that's a reflection on Murphy - I think it is pragmatic, a win or a draw retains the Ashes, and thats easiest done by batting through. And while it would always be unusual not to find room for a spinner, at Old Trafford, I think Australia can throw down some useful off-spin from Head, with a bit of back-up from Smith and Labuschagne. The other factor is of course that the weather should allow for good resting opportunitites for Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc, with Green and March also able to deliver spells with the ball.
For England, no surprise that Anderson comes in for Robinson in the attack. The big gamble for them comes from elevating Moeen to number three. That's a contrivance to address the fact that they wrongly put Brook in at three before, and none of the 'seniors' want to bat at first drop. It's been a while since I've had a moan about Root but he doesn't have the excuse of the captaincy to avoid moving up the order.
Moeen isn't a Test number three (cue him scoring a double century now :greengrin) and although his Test record with the bat in Manchester is okay, he desn't score runs playing that high up the order. And I can't recall him facing an attack as potent as Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood in Manchester. And he's only ever got significant runs against Australia in the 2015 series, two half-centuries, batting at eight both times.
The weather looks like it will severely dent the chances of a victor in this match, with the latter three days likely to yield little action, if any. Given Old Trafford usually offers something for the bat, then my prediction is a draw. But, big but, if Australia can win the toss they will bat and that could give them the edge. But more likely the edge to avoid a defeat rather than the edge to seal a victory.
Anthing less than an English victory and Australia keeps the urn. An Australian victory and they win this series in itw own right, the first in a good while. And if England win I probably won't sleep until after the Fifth Test at the Oval, for a winner-takes-all MegaTest!!!