Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Betty Boop

Sorry I don't agree. 22,000 souls died in care homes, many emptied out of hospitals and admitted to homes without being tested. I'd call that dangerous practice. Have a watch of last night's Panorama to see the treatment the elderley received in Care homes, absolutely heartbreaking.

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I don’t think I disagree and I probably should have added to my post. There was a wide spread panic in acute and secondary care about freeing up hospital capacity. Suddenly, the issue of delayed discharge became not an issue at all. There were also clear issues around capacity, rights, 13ZA and so forth and people were effectively shunted.

Given that acute hospitals are problematic at the best of times then it was hardly surprising that non-tested patients would end up in care homes within a population that for two decades has become relatively more vulnerable.

I think decisions were made made based on worst-case scenarios, without analysing the risk comprehensively. ‘Dangerous practice’ was maybe the wrong phrase but they got it wrong, but by the same token, I can understand why they got it wrong. The important thing is learning the lessons for a second wave or another pandemic.

880 cases and 120 deaths registered in the UK today.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

880 cases and 120 deaths registered in the UK today.

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The new cases are definitely creeping back up again

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Originally Posted by Rocky

Do you really think the Scottish government would announce a lockdown on Twitter two hours before it begins and then make such a spectacularly incompetent attempt at providing clarification as Matt Hancock does here?

https://twitter.com/BBCRadioManc/sta...615595520?s=19

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Bearing in mind their about-turn on the Spanish quarantine measures yes I imagine they might act just as quickly, although Scotland obviously has only a fraction of the densely populated areas England has so comparisons aren't necessarily straightforward. However, both UK and Scottish governments have been at pains to stress that these situations are liable to change at the drop of a hat. Such abrupt decisions are hugely inconvenient, frustating and worrying but personally I'm prepared to put up with it if it keeps a lid on a repeat of what we've just been through. Those who see fit to bash the UK government at every turn, though, will simply continue to find fault with any measures taken.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

Do you really think the Scottish government would announce a lockdown on Twitter two hours before it begins and then make such a spectacularly incompetent attempt at providing clarification as Matt Hancock does here?

https://twitter.com/BBCRadioManc/status/1289148989615595520?s=19

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Sturgeon was asked that very question at today's briefing and she didn't rule it out.

I should add that announcing lockdown measures on Twitter at night and a few hours before they are due to be implemented isn't how I would expect a competent government to act.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

Bearing in mind their about-turn on the Spanish quarantine measures yes I imagine they might act just as quickly, although Scotland obviously has only a fraction of the densely populated areas England has so comparisons aren't necessarily straightforward. However, both UK and Scottish governments have been at pains to stress that these situations are liable to change at the drop of a hat. Such abrupt decisions are hugely inconvenient, frustating and worrying but personally I'm prepared to put up with it if it keeps a lid on a repeat of what we've just been through. Those who see fit to bash the UK government at every turn, though, will simply continue to find fault with any measures taken.

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No comment on the Hancock interview I see. We all have partisanship to one degree or another but I'm particularly impressed by your ability to tune out anything that doesn't suit your narrative.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

This will probably come as a shock to many but I thought that today's briefings from Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon (both unscheduled as far as I'm aware) were night and day in terms of the clarity in the message they were both delivering.

Johnson's new "hands, face, space, book a test" slogan (for anyone who hasn't seen it yet I'm not joking!) appeared to have been thought up on the spot. Compared with the FACTS campaign in Scotland it's nowhere near as effective at delivering its intended message.

I think I'll go and have a lie down now. :greengrin

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For what it's worth it doesn't come as a shock to me. You strike me as an open minded poster, albeit with a cognitive bias towards conservativism and unionism (capitals omitted intentionally), so you don't shy away from debate. I'm honestly not sure what my own cognitive biases are, I'm a Labour man at heart but feel I've been deserted by them. I'm against independence in principle but on a practical level I see no alternative. So my biases are probably quite complex but whatever they are you challenge them. I like that.

Police have had to attend yet another large party involved mainly teenagers, this time on Portobello Beach.

Police have had to close down parks in Glasgow and close beaches because of similar events.

I've been in walks in a few parks around Glasgow in the past few weeks and seen the same thing regularly.

Quite frankly, I'm getting sick of seeing young people having large drunken gatherings with literally no social distancing and not taking this seriously.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

For what it's worth it doesn't come as a shock to me. You strike me as an open minded poster, albeit with a cognitive bias towards conservativism and unionism (capitals omitted intentionally), so you don't shy away from debate. I'm honestly not sure what my own cognitive biases are, I'm a Labour man at heart but feel I've been deserted by them. I'm against independence in principle but on a practical level I see no alternative. So my biases are probably quite complex but whatever they are you challenge them. I like that.

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Cheers, likewise! :aok:

I'm enjoying the open debates being discussed here with yourself and others who manage to talk about issues without dragging the threads down to petty jibes and squabbles, I have no time for that at all.

I'm actually not as 100% opposed to independence as you may think though. I think there's a definite place for a pro-independence party on the centre-right of Scottish politics and, if there was, I would consider voting for them.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I think there's a definite place for a pro-independence party on the centre-right of Scottish politics

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Plenty on the left would say you just described the SNP!

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Originally Posted by Rocky

Plenty on the left would say you just described the SNP!

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Wash your mouth out. :greengrin

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Originally Posted by Barney McGrew

The new cases are definitely creeping back up again

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Yep, I believe today's figure is the highest in 5 weeks.

How many tests were there in the last 24 hours in Scotland?

There seems to be a big rise towards the end of the week and a corresponding rise in positive cases.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

How many tests were there in the last 24 hours in Scotland?

There seems to be a big rise towards the end of the week and a corresponding rise in positive cases.

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Not sure if I've attached correctly but Friday and Saturday reports are tending to be high in terms of total tests reported. Still feels like the positive tests are nudging up a bit although they're probably still statistically flat technically

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

How many tests were there in the last 24 hours in Scotland?

There seems to be a big rise towards the end of the week and a corresponding rise in positive cases.

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15,307 today.

Fridays and Saturdays have had a huge increase in UK Government testing over the past few weeks. The number of tests increase each day throughout the week.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

Not sure if I've attached correctly but Friday and Saturday reports are tending to be high in terms of total tests reported. Still feels like the positive tests are nudging up a bit although they're probably still statistically flat technically

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This is why I think a weekly update, or at least more emphasis being put on the weekly figures, makes sense. The numbers for, as an example, the 20th July and the 31st July are incomparable without context. It looks a huge difference but in reality it is 0.02% more positives when taken as a percentage of total tests.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

This is why I think a weekly update, or at least more emphasis being put on the weekly figures, makes sense. The numbers for, as an example, the 20th July and the 31st July are incomparable without context. It looks a huge difference but in reality it is 0.02% more positives when taken as a percentage of total tests.

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Agree, although it would also be helpful to have an explanation for the huge changes in testing volumes through the week. The other thing that these numbers do is make a right old mess of the 7 day rolling average. Take that on a Friday and it includes both Friday and Saturday peaks.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

England now 'at the limit of what can realistically re-open' according to Prof Whitty.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53612390

I sense we're in a similar position in Scotland, where the FM is actively discouraging people from visiting the pub or taking holidays abroad.

A very challenging few months ahead I fear.

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I don’t think we’re at our limit here.

I thought the context Sturgeon provided today was important. 30 new cases for the first time since the start of June sounds bad. When you compare the number of people tested then and now, it doesn’t sound anywhere near as bad.

If we were at our limit, we’d be taking steps to stop things IMO. That’s not to say that limit won’t be reached at any point.

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Originally Posted by B.H.F.C

I don’t think we’re at our limit here.

I thought the context Sturgeon provided today was important. 30 new cases for the first time since the start of June sounds bad. When you compare the number of people tested then and now, it doesn’t sound anywhere near as bad.

If we were at our limit, we’d be taking steps to stop things IMO. That’s not to say that limit won’t be reached at any point.

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I agree.

That extra 2 weeks was frustrating at the time but it's looking like pretty shrewd policy at the minute. We look in far better shape than England and the figures seem to back that up. There was always going to be a rise in cases as lockdown was eased, that's just much vaunted common sense. It's about controlling and reacting to that.

Of course there will be tough decisions to be made in the future but as it stand I think we can be pretty comfortable about where we are. I understand the frustrations of those who's employment is reliant on gyms and the like but a cautious approach appears to be the way to go and hopefully avoids the need to tighten things up too much in the near future. The next step really has to be getting a decentralised, functional and efficient track and trace app to supplement the leg work being done currently.

The 7 day average in Scotland recorded on each Sunday in July is;

5th July - 8.6
12th July - 9
19th July - 12.3
26th July - 15.1

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Originally Posted by silverhibee

We seem to be doing a lot better here in Scotland but the longer things go on the more folk you see in shops without masks and probably thinking that there is no chance of catching it here, but it is still out there and just waiting to explode again, the meadows will be packed today along with other green areas, it only takes one person with the virus to be amongst people and it will spread like wild fire.

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It was, and there seemed little distancing going on. People are way overconfident and I hope that one of the reasons for that isn't just that our figures are currently better than England's.

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Originally Posted by Rocky

Not sure if I've attached correctly but Friday and Saturday reports are tending to be high in terms of total tests reported. Still feels like the positive tests are nudging up a bit although they're probably still statistically flat technically

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Looks like Trump was right all along. The more testing we do, the more cases we have.[emoji23]


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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

The 7 day average in Scotland recorded on each Sunday in July is;

5th July - 8.6
12th July - 9
19th July - 12.3
26th July - 15.1

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I think we have about 1800 contact tracers so they should be able to cope with that workload.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

I think we have about 1800 contact tracers so they should be able to cope with that workload.


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Yep certainly a lot better than the averages in April;

5th April - 331.7
12th April - 315.1
19th April - 325
26th April - 305.2

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

It was, and there seemed little distancing going on. People are way overconfident and I hope that one of the reasons for that isn't just that our figures are currently better than England's.

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And a good old pagger with loads of youths earlier on tonight with the police in attendance.

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Originally Posted by G B Young

England now 'at the limit of what can realistically re-open' according to Prof Whitty.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53612390

I sense we're in a similar position in Scotland, where the FM is actively discouraging people from visiting the pub or taking holidays abroad.

A very challenging few months ahead I fear.

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When did the FM start actively discouraging people from visiting the pub? I missed that yesterday, hence today's hangover, but can't find a statement from Sturgeon that I would have read as attempting to dissuade me (would probably have failed anyway!)?

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Originally Posted by SideBurns

When did the FM start actively discouraging people from visiting the pub? I missed that yesterday, hence today's hangover, but can't find a statement from Sturgeon that I would have read as attempting to dissuade me (would probably have failed anyway!)?

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I'm paraphrasing here but she said something along the lines of stopping to think if we're beginning to drop our guard and to maybe consider going to the pub on every other Friday instead of every Friday and Saturday.

"And for those activities which we are now allowed to do – for example going to pubs indoors – I’d ask you still to think about how necessary those nights out are, and how frequently you go on them.

And remember that the rules on indoor meetings still apply in pubs and restaurants – you should not be meeting more than two other households inside in a pub or a restaurant, and you should be complying with the rules on physical distancing."

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I'm paraphrasing here but she said something along the lines of stopping to think if we're beginning to drop our guard and to maybe consider going to the pub on every other Friday instead of every Friday and Saturday.

"And for those activities which we are now allowed to do – for example going to pubs indoors – I’d ask you still to think about how necessary those nights out are, and how frequently you go on them.

And remember that the rules on indoor meetings still apply in pubs and restaurants – you should not be meeting more than two other households inside in a pub or a restaurant, and you should be complying with the rules on physical distancing."

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Thanks, that's helpful. I suppose encouraging us to think about going to the pub a bit less than we usually would is a more accurate way of putting it then!

On another note, Prof Leitch just been on the BBC saying that the 30 new cases yesterday from 15,000 tests aren't an indication numbers are going up; half of them were found in the regular care home testing and 3 from a specific outbreak. The rest were spread throughout the country.

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Originally Posted by SideBurns

Thanks, that's helpful. I suppose encouraging us to think about going to the pub a bit less than we usually would is a more accurate way of putting it then!

On another note, Prof Leitch just been on the BBC saying that the 30 new cases yesterday from 15,000 tests aren't an indication numbers are going up; half of them were found in the regular care home testing and 3 from a specific outbreak. The rest were spread throughout the country.

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Thanks for that and that is very reassuring. I wondered how we went from 4,3 and 4 cases earlier in the week to 30. Presumably nursing home tests are done in batches

A scientific advisor to the UK government says that pubs may have to close again in order for schools to safely reopen.

India records over 57,000 cases in 24 hours - highest daily rise so far.

An infectious diseases expert in the USA says he is optimistic that an American-developed vaccine will be available by the end of 2020.