Coronavirus

Is the lockdown imposed in Italy working? Google doesn't seem to throw up a definitive answer in terms of either reporting or data. How long would it take to start to see a slowdown of infection rates? How long after that would you see a levelling and then a decline?

Edit - Just found data that shows cases in Italy are still very much on an upward curve. I suppose a lot of these cases could have been contracted before the lockdown was put in place.

I read about a small Italian community that stopped new cases as it tested absolutely everyone, in this way it was able to find the cases flying "under the radar" and stop the spread.

I think after the experience in Korea of what in depth testing can do that's the key to bringing the spread to a halt.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

Is the lockdown imposed in Italy working? Google doesn't seem to throw up a definitive answer in terms of either reporting or data. How long would it take to start to see a slowdown of infection rates? How long after that would you see a levelling and then a decline?

Edit - Just found data that shows cases in Italy are still very much on an upward curve. I suppose a lot of these cases could have been contracted before the lockdown was put in place.

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Last four days have seen new cases flattening out around the 3500 per day level.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

Hopefully that’s a sign their measures are starting to work. If so, it should start to decline over the next week or so.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

China are not getting back to normality really, they still have containment in place.

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I live in China and can confirm that things are getting back to normal after less than two months of almost total shutdown. I was always free to go out to wherever but now there is actually somewhere to go.

People are out and about, more cars are on the street, airplanes are in the air, shops and restaurants are open, express delivery services are available, offices are open, factories are running again. You want your car washed? No problem. Educational establishments, gyms, cinemas are still closed. Online classes have been running for 3-4 weeks.

People are still cautious and careful about hygiene and being too close to strangers. Temperatures are checked for fever before entering buildings, face masks are still the norm.

I'd just like to mention as well that throughout this whole thing, I didn't see any panic buying and supermarkets didn't close at all. The food supply chain was carefully protected so no-one was in danger of running out of food - no one cares about loo roll ;)

Overall, new infections are almost in single figures. The biggest danger for China now is people importing the virus from Europe. Those arriving are checked, and are advised/compelled to self-isolate for two weeks regardless.

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Originally Posted by CloudSquall

I read about a small Italian community that stopped new cases as it tested absolutely everyone, in this way it was able to find the cases flying "under the radar" and stop the spread.

I think after the experience in Korea of what in depth testing can do that's the key to bringing the spread to a halt.

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I think that's the answer too. :agree:

Limit movement and contact, and test test test.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

Is the lockdown imposed in Italy working? Google doesn't seem to throw up a definitive answer in terms of either reporting or data. How long would it take to start to see a slowdown of infection rates? How long after that would you see a levelling and then a decline?

Edit - Just found data that shows cases in Italy are still very much on an upward curve. I suppose a lot of these cases could have been contracted before the lockdown was put in place.

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You’ll see a benefit once we pass the virus’s supposed incubation period. Some have that anywhere between 5-21 days

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Originally Posted by Peevemor

That's more or less what's happening in France. Police are checking people in the street (driving & pedestrian) & if you're not out for an approved purpose you get fined (though 'only' 135€ as of tomorrow).

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That won't work here. Everytime a cop comes into contact with someone who has it they'll have to go off for 14 days or their whole shift will be in the same boat.

So you'll very soon have no cops to enforce it.

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Govt financial response yesterday was utterly predictable. Lots of free money for big business who will still pay off unneeded staff and zero support for people made unemployed. It’s worse than the bank bail outs.


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Everyone at my work was told yesterday we either all opt to go part time or at least two people will be made redundant.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Govt financial response yesterday was utterly predictable. Lots of free money for big business who will still pay off unneeded staff and zero support for people made unemployed. It’s worse than the bank bail outs.


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Lots of businesses will use it as an excuse to cut costs.

Whatever happens the economy is going to be a real mess at the end. Thankfully we're closely integrated with our European neighbours for trading purposes.... [emoji849]

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Originally Posted by Just_Jimmy

Lots of businesses will use it as an excuse to cut costs.

Whatever happens the economy is going to be a real mess at the end. Thankfully we're closely integrated with our European neighbours for trading purposes.... [emoji849]

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I actually think there is a good chance the transition period for us exiting the EU could be extended and possibly indefinitely. This is not the time to be entering the unknown.

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Just pushed a 15 hour duty. Everything else is closing down here now except that what is needed. Drove into the centre of Berlin this morning and it took me 35 minutes for a journey that normally takes over an hour on a good day. We're flying out with nearly empty aircraft and bringing back full loads of German nationals on request of the German government. We've pretty much been told that the flying schedule will be ground to a halt within the next few days apart from a couple of routes that are vital for political reasons, again on request from the German government. I know most of my colleagues would prefer not to have to be locked in a pressurised tin can with 180 people at the moment, but they also know that people are desperate to get home before it's no longer possible. Stay safe people, we truly are in this together so be nice to each other.

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We’re still on Lanzarote, Paul. Scheduled flight on 31st cancelled, but managed to re-book on a flight to Hamburg next Tuesday. Total lockdown here but flights still taking out people. Bea needs her medication, otherwise we’d be relaxed about staying. Now just a matter of waiting to see if our new flight is cancelled. Strange days.


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Originally Posted by Nazz

I live in China and can confirm that things are getting back to normal after less than two months of almost total shutdown. I was always free to go out to wherever but now there is actually somewhere to go.

People are out and about, more cars are on the street, airplanes are in the air, shops and restaurants are open, express delivery services are available, offices are open, factories are running again. You want your car washed? No problem. Educational establishments, gyms, cinemas are still closed. Online classes have been running for 3-4 weeks.

People are still cautious and careful about hygiene and being too close to strangers. Temperatures are checked for fever before entering buildings, face masks are still the norm.

I'd just like to mention as well that throughout this whole thing, I didn't see any panic buying and supermarkets didn't close at all. The food supply chain was carefully protected so no-one was in danger of running out of food - no one cares about loo roll ;)

Overall, new infections are almost in single figures. The biggest danger for China now is people importing the virus from Europe. Those arriving are checked, and are advised/compelled to self-isolate for two weeks regardless.

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Thanks for sharing, gives us all a bit of hope

Where in China do you live

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Originally Posted by Nazz

I live in China and can confirm that things are getting back to normal after less than two months of almost total shutdown. I was always free to go out to wherever but now there is actually somewhere to go.

People are out and about, more cars are on the street, airplanes are in the air, shops and restaurants are open, express delivery services are available, offices are open, factories are running again. You want your car washed? No problem. Educational establishments, gyms, cinemas are still closed. Online classes have been running for 3-4 weeks.

People are still cautious and careful about hygiene and being too close to strangers. Temperatures are checked for fever before entering buildings, face masks are still the norm.

I'd just like to mention as well that throughout this whole thing, I didn't see any panic buying and supermarkets didn't close at all. The food supply chain was carefully protected so no-one was in danger of running out of food - no one cares about loo roll ;)

Overall, new infections are almost in single figures. The biggest danger for China now is people importing the virus from Europe. Those arriving are checked, and are advised/compelled to self-isolate for two weeks regardless.

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Needed that good news. Cheers, Nazz.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nazz

I live in China and can confirm that things are getting back to normal after less than two months of almost total shutdown. I was always free to go out to wherever but now there is actually somewhere to go.

People are out and about, more cars are on the street, airplanes are in the air, shops and restaurants are open, express delivery services are available, offices are open, factories are running again. You want your car washed? No problem. Educational establishments, gyms, cinemas are still closed. Online classes have been running for 3-4 weeks.

People are still cautious and careful about hygiene and being too close to strangers. Temperatures are checked for fever before entering buildings, face masks are still the norm.

I'd just like to mention as well that throughout this whole thing, I didn't see any panic buying and supermarkets didn't close at all. The food supply chain was carefully protected so no-one was in danger of running out of food - no one cares about loo roll ;)

Overall, new infections are almost in single figures. The biggest danger for China now is people importing the virus from Europe. Those arriving are checked, and are advised/compelled to self-isolate for two weeks regardless.

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Thanks for that. :aok:

2nd day working from home!

Attachment 23091

Some progress towards a treatment?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rus-says-china

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Govt financial response yesterday was utterly predictable. Lots of free money for big business who will still pay off unneeded staff and zero support for people made unemployed. It’s worse than the bank bail outs.


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I don’t want to get into the habit of defending politicians. However, if they don’t help businesses in danger, there will be few businesses left to employ anyone. No pubs, no restaurants, no child-care etc.

Folk are desperate to immediately criticise everything the UK and Scottish governments are doing. Whilst the **** is hitting the fan on an hourly basis, a bit of patience is required with politicians I think. When things settle down, if they have failed to do certain things or have hung certain groups out to dry, that’s the time to go bat-****.

Bond sell off underway will make it more expensive for governments to raise debt.

This is being driven by investors dumping liquid assets to meet obligations. This is likely to include insurance companies who will be getting hit with vast numbers of claims from now on in.

Anyone else concerned about the enabling bill proposed by the government.

This is classic fascist playbook stuff in the wrong hands. Cummings and Johnson ate the wrong hands.

Hopefully Kier will be in place shortly to provide some opposition alongside the SNP.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Govt financial response yesterday was utterly predictable. Lots of free money for big business who will still pay off unneeded staff and zero support for people made unemployed. It’s worse than the bank bail outs.


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There is almost no free money for businesses ..simply loans offered which would need to be paid back with interest....


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Originally Posted by Colr

Bond sell off underway will make it more expensive for governments to raise debt.

This is being driven by investors dumping liquid assets to meet obligations. This is likely to include insurance companies who will be getting hit with vast numbers of claims from now on in.

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Indeed. Just the stat of huge gyrations in the financial markets. This could get messy very quickly.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

Is the lockdown imposed in Italy working? Google doesn't seem to throw up a definitive answer in terms of either reporting or data. How long would it take to start to see a slowdown of infection rates? How long after that would you see a levelling and then a decline?

Edit - Just found data that shows cases in Italy are still very much on an upward curve. I suppose a lot of these cases could have been contracted before the lockdown was put in place.

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This shows analysis of the chinese cases working backwards by asking people when they first had symptoms. Orange bars are the confirmed cases as they were reported as such, blue bars are when they actually got sick. So the lockdown worked fairly quickly but the confirmed cases were still ramping for a couple of weeks:

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2020/03...4014543305.jpg

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Originally Posted by Just_Jimmy

That won't work here. Everytime a cop comes into contact with someone who has it they'll have to go off for 14 days or their whole shift will be in the same boat.

So you'll very soon have no cops to enforce it.

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We are not far off that already. My mate works for Avon & Somerset Police. His numbers are dwindling as coppers are getting sick or having to isolate for 14 days.

J

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Originally Posted by Bristolhibby

We are not far off that already. My mate works for Avon & Somerset Police. His numbers are dwindling as coppers are getting sick or having to isolate for 14 days.

J

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I know. Believe me, it's a shambles.

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That's Glastonbury been cancelled.

https://www.facebook.com/10000034387...762723856/?d=n

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Originally Posted by Bristolhibby

We are not far off that already. My mate works for Avon & Somerset Police. His numbers are dwindling as coppers are getting sick or having to isolate for 14 days.

J

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and if it’s happening with the Police imagine the carnage about to unfold as NHS staff who are far more vulnerable start to fall like dominoes.

Our local pub is now looking at taking orders for fresh fruit and veg and dairy etc to order from their suppliers and deliver round the area. Great idea, keeping small businesses going and supplying fresh food to those who cant get out.

Police officer: "What you doing out on the streets?"
Me: "Going around the shops to try find some paracetamol".

They will never be able to enforce it.