Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

She's definitely not a slaver.

If she says it's the case then it's 100% accurate.

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Grim as. Smashed sunshine on leith here at 8 and halfway through thought of the song being played at funerals. Absolute mental.

Looking at Africa and the Caribbean as an example, very low confirmed cases. Is this due to temperature or travel

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Originally Posted by greenlex

You jest. Main scientific guy saying 20000 deaths after yesterday’s measures will be a decent result. Down from 250000 Scotland on current trends will account for about 10% of that and If that’s over the next 6 months or so and there will be a peak. We could be talking hundreds of deaths a week in Scotland at that peak. They will have to go somewhere. That will be the contingency plan.

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20,000 can't be right but hopefully is. Scotlands share of that based on population would be around 1,800 people over say 6 months.

The suicide rate is 400 people over 6 months.

Not minimising 1,800 deaths and the families and loved ones affected but only trying to put this into some proportion.

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Originally Posted by Billy Whizz

Looking at Africa and the Caribbean as an example, very low confirmed cases. Is this due to temperature or travel

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I would say travel, it not summer in the Southern hemisphere so warm in South America and Oz etc.

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Originally Posted by The Baldmans Comb

20,000 can't be right but hopefully is. Scotlands share of that based on population would be around 1,800 people over say 6 months.

The suicide rate is 400 people over 6 months.

Not minimising 1,800 deaths and the families and loved ones affected but only trying to put this into some proportion.

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As am I. It won’t be evenly spread over 6 months. Also 20000 is their better end of the spectrum. The contingency will be worst case scenario. Two days ago that was 250000. You can also add in added deaths due to pressure on the NHS that can’t cope with the usual normal casualties

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Originally Posted by Hiberniankb

A makeshift morgue what a slaver

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I can second what PB says. I have it on good authority that an area of the barracks has been earmarked as a possible morgue IF the situation worsens to an extent that the normal services can't cope. It's no more than a contingency plan at the moment.

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Originally Posted by greenlex

As am I. It won’t be evenly spread over 6 months. Also 20000 is their better end of the spectrum. The contingency will be worst case scenario. Two days ago that was 250000. You can also add in added deaths due to pressure on the NHS that can’t cope with the usual normal casualties

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1,800 deaths in Scotland spread evenly over lets say a 3 month period is 600 poor people and tragically affected families a month.

I appreciate there will be a peak but spread evenly per day and that is 7 people will die each day over 90 days.

I am asking the question if this is the case then would that not mean that the Scottish government and their UK counterparts have achieved something that earlier models thought very unlikely.

Morbid as it sounds I would take 1,800 deaths in total in Scotland if the medical person is correct.

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Originally Posted by The Baldmans Comb

1,800 deaths in Scotland spread evenly over lets say a 3 month period is 600 poor people and tragically affected families a month.

I appreciate there will be a peak but spread evenly per day and that is 7 people will die each day over 90 days.

I am asking the question if this is the case then would that not mean that the Scottish government and their UK counterparts have achieved something that earlier models thought very unlikely.

Morbid as it sounds I would take 1,800 deaths in total in Scotland if the medical person is correct.

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So would they but the contingency will be worst case. 1800 deaths is their best case. I’m saying contingency makeshift morgues is far from fantasy.

Our office closed to the public today and a rota for home working and skeleton staff put in place. I'm fortunate that the business I'm in is safe financially for the immediate and medium term future. We have been assured we will all continue to be paid full pay.i really genuinely do feel for others less fortunate and hope that it all works out and any hardships can be overcome.

Argentina suspending domestic flights and long distance buses, they have a long weekend coming up and don't want people travelling over that period. They seem to be avoiding an exponential rise in cases, each day is seeing around 10 new cases, the measures they've taken seem to be slowing the pace in new cases vs other Latin American countries.

Certain cities / regions have also went into a lockdown / quarentine situation.


Local supermarket was well stocked up on fine Argentine wine so I'm no given a flying f...:greengrin



I do feel for people however that were here on vacation or need to get back home, extremely stressful times trying to find flights out of Argentina, situation is changing each day.


I had planned two to three months in Argentina before moving on but I think I'm going to see this virus out here.

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Originally Posted by greenlex

So would they but the contingency will be worst case. 1800 deaths is their best case. I’m saying contingency makeshift morgues is far from fantasy.

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Totally agree and you are completely correct about makeshift morgues as that has to be a contingency.

I am just trying to put these numbers into some sort of perspective without trivalusing the huge family loss by comparing the annual suicide rates of 800 per annum in Scotland with 2* 1,800 = 3,600 per annum from CoronaVirus in Scotland

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Originally Posted by The Baldmans Comb

Totally agree and you are completely correct about makeshift morgues as that has to be a contingency.

I am just trying to put these numbers into some sort of perspective by compariing annual suicide rates of 800 per annum with 2* 1,800 = 3,600 from CoronaVirus.

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I think the uk deaths from flu runs around 7000 per year.

How have the U.K. not anticipated this?

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Originally Posted by Sylar

All face to face teaching was cancelled on Sunday, but until today, a lot of things were still operational (library open, sports facilities open, cafes etc open).

Yesterday has changed a lot. The Sport facility is now shut, the library opening hours are reduced (not totally shutting down as of right now), all assessments/exams are likely to no longer be in-person, and staff are being encouraged to work away from site where possible. Our Faculty (Business) has been pretty quick to ensure materials are all online, but that's not the case across the board.

Hope your daughter isn't too impacted by it all - the University communication about it all has been less than stellar (for both staff and students!).

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She is studying international relations, politics and history which come under humanities or something. Hasn't heard from lecturers about anything though. She is in 3rd year (had her young lol) and is pretty screwed on so no real worries and think she will be ok. My other daughter is a concern though. She is in 4th year at school and supposed to have her exams but God knows what's happening with them and when they will get done. She's supposed to be going to college after the summer as already got her conditional offer which obviously depends on her passing her exams.

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Originally Posted by greenlex

I think the uk deaths from flu runs around 7000 per year.

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If thats the case then Scotland's share of that would be around 600.

Suicides per year 800
Flu deaths per year 600
CoronaVirus per year 3,600.

It really does show the potency of this lethal new disease though it does need to put into perspective amongst a population of 5,000,000 people.

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Originally Posted by greenlex

So would they but the contingency will be worst case. 1800 deaths is their best case. I’m saying contingency makeshift morgues is far from fantasy.

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There will need to be plans for makeshift morgues to avoid the current situation in Bergamo, where corpses are being stored in a church.

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Originally Posted by The Baldmans Comb

If thats the case the Scotland's share of that would be around 900.

Suicides per year 800
Flu deaths per year 900
CoronaVirus per year 3,600.

It really does show the potency of this lethal new disease though it does need to put into perspective amongst a population of 5,000,000 people.

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Again, and only for perspective, the UK Government 'austerity' policies killed 40,000 per year from 2009 onwards. Economics, and poverty, matter.

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

Again, and only for perspective, the UK Government 'austerity' policies killed 40,000 per year from 2009 onwards. Economics, and poverty, matter.

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So to update on an annual basis

Flu kills 600 people in Scotland.
Suicide kills 800 people in Scotland.
CoronaVirus might kill 3,600 people in Scotland.

Austerity its hard to quantify but I agree with where you are going completely.

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Originally Posted by Hiberniankb

A makeshift morgue what a slaver

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Civil contingency planning covers far more complex scenarios than just identifying makeshift morgues, but it does cover that - that's been a given for a long, long time and places like barracks are obvious sites. There are a huge range of possibilities and probablilities that need considered - for example, every death needs a Medical Certificate of Cause of Death, in order for the death to be registered (and for the body to be disposed of).

In a massive crisis, where there are lots of deaths on a daily basis, then capacity to do the MCCDs is severely limited as the medics are required to be treating people. There would be a need for emergency legislation to allow some unspecified others, albeit with some level of qualification, to complete the MCCD paperwork otherwise we will be stacking up a lot of corpses. And as the weather starts to get warmer that isn't where we want to be.

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Originally Posted by Hiberniankb

A makeshift morgue what a slaver

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Would make complete sense to arrange these sort of facilities as contingencies.

That's me in self quarentine until next Saturday, Argentina added Brazil to their "areas of high risk" list which requires anyone who was in one of those countries to self quarentine for 14 days since arrival.

I was on a beach in Rio last week FFS :boo hoo::greengrin

Thankfully stocked up so it's around the clock wine o'clock for the next wee while :greengrin

Just pushed a 15 hour duty. Everything else is closing down here now except that what is needed. Drove into the centre of Berlin this morning and it took me 35 minutes for a journey that normally takes over an hour on a good day. We're flying out with nearly empty aircraft and bringing back full loads of German nationals on request of the German government. We've pretty much been told that the flying schedule will be ground to a halt within the next few days apart from a couple of routes that are vital for political reasons, again on request from the German government. I know most of my colleagues would prefer not to have to be locked in a pressurised tin can with 180 people at the moment, but they also know that people are desperate to get home before it's no longer possible. Stay safe people, we truly are in this together so be nice to each other.

Scottish deaths so far seem to be below 10% of the deaths in the rUK so it’s possible we are a bit behind rUK.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Walking along Peebles High Street at lunchtime it didn’t appear to be that much quieter than normal, but what was noticeable was the fact that the majority of people appeared to be in the 70 and over age bracket. It might require some more stringent measures for many of those who are being specifically advised to isolate to actually do so.

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Originally Posted by Carheenlea

Walking along Peebles High Street at lunchtime it didn’t appear to be that much quieter than normal, but what was noticeable was the fact that the majority of people appeared to be in the 70 and over age bracket. It might require some more stringent measures for many of those who are being specifically advised to isolate to actually do so.

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Aside from locking people in their own homes or arresting them in the street what more can be done?

I did hear something on the radio that €25,000 fines are being dished out to people who break quarantine - does it have to come to that?

I was in North Durham Hospital today and the chat was that they had 9 respirators in total with 6 in use.

Patients will struggle very soon to get the equipment many will need.

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Originally Posted by Jones28

Aside from locking people in their own homes or arresting them in the street what more can be done?

I did hear something on the radio that €25,000 fines are being dished out to people who break quarantine - does it have to come to that?

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That's more or less what's happening in France. Police are checking people in the street (driving & pedestrian) & if you're not out for an approved purpose you get fined (though 'only' 135€ as of tomorrow).

If I was out and about now I could be looking at 3 years in jail in Argentina :bitchy: , no f'ing about here.

In South America the restriction of travel may be the key to keeping the spread under control, Argentina has kept travel under strict control and has 69 cases (population of 40million) while Uruguay was slower with implementing travel bans and had 50 cases (population 5 million)

After having a quick read of this I'd be joining those Americans in a queue for a gun..

https://twitter.com/odonnell_r/statu...23290988691459