Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Today's announcement that only around 4.3% of the Scottish population has antibodies for the virus must have come as a bit of a shock. That's less than 250,000 people.

The original estimates from the former CMO would have put the number of infected people at something like at least 2.5 million.

It means the vast minority are still susceptible to it as we head towards winter.

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People who have had it may be susceptible too.

We don't know if having had it means you are immune. If you are immune is that for all time - immunity might only last a few months.

This is where "the science" surrounding Herd Immunity and CV19 falls down. In a real Herd Immunity project a vaccine exists, is given to the weaker "animals", the rest are allowed to succumb and it's chance whether they survive or not - farmer/govt saves money on not having vaccinate the whole stock. Not knowing if immunity is certain or if a vaccine will ever come along whilst pursuing Herd Immunity is just russian roulette.

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Originally Posted by Kato

People who have had it may be susceptible too.

We don't know if having had it means you are immune. If you are immune is that for all time - immunity might only last a few months.

This is where "the science" surrounding Herd Immunity and CV19 falls down. In a real Herd Immunity project a vaccine exists, is given to the weaker "animals", the rest are allowed to succumb and it's chance whether they survive or not - farmer/govt saves money on not having vaccinate the whole stock. Not knowing if immunity is certain or if a vaccine will ever come along whilst pursuing Herd Immunity is just russian roulette.

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Interesting use of the word Russian in there. I’m not given to conspiracy theories, but Dominic Cummings spent time there when he was younger.

I’m pretty sure he’s not a lizard though.

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Originally Posted by Kato

People who have had it may be susceptible too.

We don't know if having had it means you are immune. If you are immune is that for all time - immunity might only last a few months.

This is where "the science" surrounding Herd Immunity and CV19 falls down. In a real Herd Immunity project a vaccine exists, is given to the weaker "animals", the rest are allowed to succumb and it's chance whether they survive or not - farmer/govt saves money on not having vaccinate the whole stock. Not knowing if immunity is certain or if a vaccine will ever come along whilst pursuing Herd Immunity is just russian roulette.

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Yes I know those with antibodies could potentially lose their immunity at some stage. It was more the idea that I think it was widely expected that, by this stage, a lot more than 250,000 people would have been exposed to the virus in Scotland and isn't great news if we do happen to see a resurgence in a few months' time with over 5 million people still vulnerable to the virus.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Yes I know those with antibodies could potentially lose their immunity at some stage. It was more the idea that I think it was widely expected that, by this stage, a lot more than 250,000 people would have been exposed to the virus in Scotland and isn't great news if we do happen to see a resurgence in a few months' time with over 5 million people still vulnerable to the virus.

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I actually think it shows that we’re learning how to deal with it, and we’ve managed to protect 4.75 million people from the virus. There will be more information from the evolving science in the coming months.

I’m not confident, but I am optimistic.

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Originally Posted by Saturday Boy

Interesting use of the word Russian in there. I’m not given to conspiracy theories, but Dominic Cummings spent time there when he was younger.

I’m pretty sure he’s not a lizard though.

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"The foreign secretary was careful not to say that the dossier had been obtained via Russian hacking, although it is believed to have been obtained via a government special adviser’s personal email account."

More **** than lizard.

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Originally Posted by Saturday Boy

Interesting use of the word Russian in there. I’m not given to conspiracy theories, but Dominic Cummings spent time there when he was younger.

I’m pretty sure he’s not a lizard though.

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Don't get too excited. I used a lower case "r".

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Originally Posted by Kato

Don't get too excited. I used a lower case "r".

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My “r” s is always getting me into bother 😳

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Originally Posted by Saturday Boy

I actually think it shows that we’re learning how to deal with it, and we’ve managed to protect 4.75 million people from the virus. There will be more information from the evolving science in the coming months.

I’m not confident, but I am optimistic.

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What I was meaning was, I think the hope was that we had "got away" with 2,500 deaths whilst many, many more people have had it and recovered. What this shows us is that the death rate is much higher than we would have previously predicted and without another widespread lockdown in the winter, we could be back to square one.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

What I was meaning was, I think the hope was that we had "got away" with 2,500 deaths whilst many, many more people have had it and recovered. What this shows us is that the death rate is much higher than we would have previously predicted and without another widespread lockdown in the winter, we could be back to square one.

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I see where you’re coming from, but I think that while it’s a very dangerous virus, we are learning. And by we, I mean the wider scientific community.

And I say this as someone who ticks more of the vulnerability categories than I’m comfortable with. Maybe I just keep looking for positives.

580 cases reported in Spain in the last 24 hours - biggest daily increase in over 2 months.

More than 600 cases reported in Japan in the last 24 hours - biggest daily increase in 3 months.

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Originally Posted by grunt

I'm liking your signature line, thank you for having it. But it's doing my OCD in. Can I please request the first "to" be changed to "too"?

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Oops. Tomorrow morning.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

What I was meaning was, I think the hope was that we had "got away" with 2,500 deaths whilst many, many more people have had it and recovered. What this shows us is that the death rate is much higher than we would have previously predicted and without another widespread lockdown in the winter, we could be back to square one.

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How many were you expecting? A 1% fatality rate is not at the high end of estimates?

We were never going to be anywhere near “herd immunity” without tens of thousands of deaths in Scotland.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

How many were you expecting? A 1% fatality rate is not at the high end of estimates?

We were never going to be anywhere near “herd immunity” without tens of thousands of deaths in Scotland.

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When you consider the number of deaths in a care home setting, a 1-1.5% fatality rate seems a pretty 'good' outcome.

Those deaths are arguably the biggest failure to be taken from this episode. Hopefully as we approach the winter and if there are indications of a 2nd spike lessons have been learned.

Absolutely no way that only 4.3% of the country have had it. It’s clear that not everyone is producing antibodies to fight the virus and instead t-cells are what’s protecting a lot of people

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Originally Posted by Moulin Yarns

Oops. Tomorrow morning.

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And could you stick a 'surely' in there too? Just so it scans better.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

How many were you expecting? A 1% fatality rate is not at the high end of estimates?

We were never going to be anywhere near “herd immunity” without tens of thousands of deaths in Scotland.

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It was previously thought that for every death, there would be 1,000 cases.

Using that estimate, as there's been nearly 2,500 official deaths from confirmed Covid-19 in Scotland (leaving aside the NRS figures) that would have meant that at least 2.5 million people had so far been infected in Scotland.

What we're being told now is that it's more like 100 cases for every death.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

It was previously thought that for every death, there would be 1,000 cases.

Using that estimate, as there's been nearly 2,500 official deaths from confirmed Covid-19 in Scotland (leaving aside the NRS figures) that would have meant that at least 2.5 million people had so far been infected in Scotland.

What we're being told now is that it's more like 100 cases for every death.

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We should just have stuck to an estimate of 0.5, as an estimate of what the estimate should be, throughout.

More than 74,500 cases in the USA yesterday, largest daily total so far. Cases are rising in 30 out of the 50 states. Nearly 1,000 deaths yesterday, now at 138,000 overall - roughly 100,000 people have died from the virus in the USA in the past 3 months.

Brazil's number of cases have doubled (by around 1 million) in less than a month.

Victoria in Australia has also seen a record number of new infections.

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Originally Posted by grunt

I'm not usually a fan of snotty kids on TV, but I'm willing to make an exception here https://twitter.com/TheStirlingWolf/status/1283425792945459203?s=20

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Get them into Government now!

They seem eminently more qualified than the current incumbents.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

It was previously thought that for every death, there would be 1,000 cases.

Using that estimate, as there's been nearly 2,500 official deaths from confirmed Covid-19 in Scotland (leaving aside the NRS figures) that would have meant that at least 2.5 million people had so far been infected in Scotland.

What we're being told now is that it's more like 100 cases for every death.

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0.1% fatality is alt-right fantasy land I’m afraid.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

0.1% fatality is alt-right fantasy land I’m afraid.

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I'm just quoting our former CMO.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I'm just quoting our former CMO.

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Quite a lot of cases since her time in the job with which to draw up more accurate and up to date estimates though.

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Originally Posted by Smartie

Quite a lot of cases since her time in the job with which to draw up more accurate and up to date estimates though.

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Any time I've heard this being asked by the journalists at the briefings since her departure, I haven't heard Sturgeon or her medical people provide any alternative estimates for this until yesterday's announcement. It just seemed so far removed from the estimates given and whilst I appreciate things have moved on a lot over the last 3 or 4 months, I would have thought that the estimates given in March would have been semi-reliable as I'm assuming the former CMO was quoting data from similar pandemics in the past.

It's certainly not an "alt-right fantasy" when the figures were provided by someone who used to be the top medical professional in Scotland.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Any time I've heard this being asked by the journalists at the briefings since her departure, I haven't heard Sturgeon or her medical people provide any alternative estimates for this until yesterday's announcement. It just seemed so far removed from the estimates given and whilst I appreciate things have moved on a lot over the last 3 or 4 months, I would have thought that the estimates given in March would have been semi-reliable as I'm assuming the former CMO was quoting data from similar pandemics in the past.

It's certainly not an "alt-right fantasy" when the figures were provided by someone who used to be the top medical professional in Scotland.

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This time last year no one had heard of Covid-19, now everyone has. It's been a steep learning curve and we're all still learning!

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Originally Posted by Jack

This time last year no one had heard of Covid-19, now everyone has. It's been a steep learning curve and we're all still learning!

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I agree with that.

Boris Johnson's just announced physical distancing measures will be in place until at least November in England.

Stadia events can resume from October.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I would have thought that the estimates given in March would have been semi-reliable as I'm assuming the former CMO was quoting data from similar pandemics in the past.

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Similar pandemics?

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Similar pandemics?

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Similar virus outbreaks.

She must have been basing her figures on some kind of previous knowledge and understanding.

Daily Scottish update;

17 new cases since yesterday
Increase of 34 in hospital but a decrease of 4 in the confirmed cases
Increase of 3 in intensive care
4140 have left hospital since 5th March
No deaths registered since yesterday

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Daily Scottish update;

17 new cases since yesterday
Increase of 34 in hospital but a decrease of 4 in the confirmed cases
Increase of 3 in intensive care
4140 have left hospital since 5th March
No deaths registered since yesterday

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New cases creeping up a bit eh? Inevitable consequence of lifting restrictions? No deaths again though, which is always good to read.