Housing

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The Scottish govt can’t because they don’t have the borrowing powers. Not an Indy point though because it’s the same in England.
It’s a mad system where govt across the UK is struggling for money but something that can make them money and ease the burden on the tax payer is not being done for idealogical reasons. Building and renting out homes could be very profitable for councils all across the UK. However they are not allowed to borrow the money to invest in it.


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I think such an idea would also drive the bad landlords out the market.

There would still be a need and a desire for private rent and the guys who look after their properties and treat their tenants fairly would be highly desirable to those either not qualifying for social rent or looking for something a bit more exclusive. The 'slum landlords' exist purely because of the dearth of housing available and make their money from desperation. They drag the name of all landlords down and removing that scarcity of housing removes one of the only reasons people use them.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The Scottish govt can’t because they don’t have the borrowing powers. Not an Indy point though because it’s the same in England.
It’s a mad system where govt across the UK is struggling for money but something that can make them money and ease the burden on the tax payer is not being done for idealogical reasons. Building and renting out homes could be very profitable for councils all across the UK. However they are not allowed to borrow the money to invest in it.


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Does the devolved settlement really prevent the Scottish Government from investing in different models of social housing?

I've thought that councils/government should be doing this in partnership for a long time now. We've created a total monstrosity of a housing market in this country. No infrastructure planning to accompany it either.

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Originally Posted by superfurryhibby

Does the devolved settlement really prevent the Scottish Government from investing in different models of social housing?

I've thought that councils/government should be doing this in partnership for a long time now. We've created a total monstrosity of a housing market in this country. No infrastructure planning to accompany it either.

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Someone else might be able to explain the exact rules but the amount that can be borrowed to invest is tiny. To be fair, Scotland builds more than anywhere else but it’s minuscule still. I think we build about a 1000 a year these day but when I was born in 1970 we build 35k a year.
Lack of housing is having a crippling effect on our economy.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Someone else might be able to explain the exact rules but the amount that can be borrowed to invest is tiny. To be fair, Scotland builds more than anywhere else but it’s minuscule still. I think we build about a 1000 a year these day but when I was born in 1970 we build 35k a year.
Lack of housing is having a crippling effect on our economy.


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Stats on housing completions here: https://www.gov.scot/publications/ho...ouse-building/

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Someone else might be able to explain the exact rules but the amount that can be borrowed to invest is tiny. To be fair, Scotland builds more than anywhere else but it’s minuscule still. I think we build about a 1000 a year these day but when I was born in 1970 we build 35k a year.
Lack of housing is having a crippling effect on our economy.


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Is that 35k in Scotland. Unbelievable drop crazy that no uk party wants near sorting it

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Someone else might be able to explain the exact rules but the amount that can be borrowed to invest is tiny. To be fair, Scotland builds more than anywhere else but it’s minuscule still. I think we build about a 1000 a year these day but when I was born in 1970 we build 35k a year.
Lack of housing is having a crippling effect on our economy.


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The lack of social housing is causing huge harm to our young people. In my view right to a home is a fundamental mark of a progressive society. Anyone who works and contributes should be able to live in the area they come from, it's an affront to decency that the inflated costs of housing make that such a challenge.

As I get closer to retirement (not that close sadly), I ponder my mortgage burden and pension and think that I would have been retiring in my early 60's if I'd been in an affordable rented home. Instead old buzzards like me cling on until their dotage.

I grew up in Leith in the 70's and 80's, as much as the gentrification has brought positives, it's also deeply saddening to see how people have been priced out of their communities.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

The Scottish govt can’t because they don’t have the borrowing powers. Not an Indy point though because it’s the same in England.
It’s a mad system where govt across the UK is struggling for money but something that can make them money and ease the burden on the tax payer is not being done for idealogical reasons. Building and renting out homes could be very profitable for councils all across the UK. However they are not allowed to borrow the money to invest in it.


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Not able to post at any length just now (sigh of relief for all) but councils did have access to prudential borrowing which allowed them to build, topping up with SG monies, and pay the cost back over future rents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65148719


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https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...d284af334a.jpg

I did say this would happen. Rent freezes do not work. They never do. It’s been tried all over the world and it’s a failure everywhere.
If you want low rents then build loads of houses.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...d284af334a.jpg

I did say this would happen. Rent freezes do not work. They never do. It’s been tried all over the world and it’s a failure everywhere.
If you want low rents then build loads of houses.


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Evictions are still a problem too.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...t-proceedings/

https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/sta...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

House prices back on the up again. We need to start building again.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4800934b58.jpg

I doubt the graph for Scotland looks much better. We need to relax planning laws and encourage more council house building.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/sta...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

House prices back on the up again. We need to start building again.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4800934b58.jpg

I doubt the graph for Scotland looks much better. We need to relax planning laws and encourage more council house building.


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Their are good developers who are desperate to get on and build houses but their are so many obstacles to overcome that sometimes it becomes unfeasible.

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Originally Posted by Hibs4185

Their are good developers who are desperate to get on and build houses but their are so many obstacles to overcome that sometimes it becomes unfeasible.

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Yes. The planning system is strangling housebuilding here. And it is stopping economic growth. It’s grim and I don’t se anyone changing it. We’ll just keep throwing ever more money into the houses already built.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Yes. The planning system is strangling housebuilding here. And it is stopping economic growth. It’s grim and I don’t se anyone changing it. We’ll just keep throwing ever more money into the houses already built.


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I think the solution is to build more council housing. This would take a whole group of people out of the market for private renting and marginal owner occupation. I don't think you can compel building housing for sale. Developers will only build if they can make profits.

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Originally Posted by archie

I think the solution is to build more council housing. This would take a whole group of people out of the market for private renting and marginal owner occupation. I don't think you can compel building housing for sale. Developers will only build if they can make profits.

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You can speed up the rate developers build by starting to tax land that is not being used. I agree that the state needs to get involved in building as well though. I think though that the rules on borrowing for the SG and local councils will need changed at Westminster for it to happen.
Freeing up the planning system though is entirely on the SG, as is the system of taxation on land. Tax can be a very powerful weapon in changing behaviour. If we are serious about wanting more housing then there are lots of things that can be done.


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Sunak talking about bringing back a variation of Help To Buy.

It does get people into the housing market of course but does nothing to solve the underlying issues. It was a failed policy before and it will fail again.

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Originally Posted by Pretty Boy

Sunak talking about bringing back a variation of Help To Buy.

It does get people into the housing market of course but does nothing to solve the underlying issues. It was a failed policy before and it will fail again.

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Help to buy is a direct state subsidy that pushes up prices for everyone. Its not the only one. Housing benefit does the same thing. We are shovelling tax payer money into housing and the net result is actually a negative.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/sta...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

House prices back on the up again.

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Good luck getting a mortgage. Oh and if you do. It'll be at 5%. Utter shambles.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Help to buy is a direct state subsidy that pushes up prices for everyone. Its not the only one. Housing benefit does the same thing. We are shovelling tax payer money into housing and the net result is actually a negative.


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Govt does something they know won't help. Surprise.

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Originally Posted by Kato

Govt does something they know won't help. Surprise.

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It's the classic macro/micro tension. It will stimulate house prices at a macro level but people who get it will like it. Similar to the right to buy.

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Originally Posted by DH1875

Good luck getting a mortgage. Oh and if you do. It'll be at 5%. Utter shambles.

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Some years ago Gordon Brown proposed that mortgages should be long term fixed, as is the case in many other countries. His rationale was that variable mortgages constrained government use of interest rates to manage the economy (because of the impact on people with variable rate mortgages). This was attacked on the basis that people might pay more with a fixed. But the key point was that it took out risk. How real is that risk? On Black Wednesday in 1992 rates started at 10%, went to 12% and finished at 15%. All on the same day!

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Originally Posted by archie

Some years ago Gordon Brown proposed that mortgages should be long term fixed, as is the case in many other countries. His rationale was that variable mortgages constrained government use of interest rates to manage the economy (because of the impact on people with variable rate mortgages). This was attacked on the basis that people might pay more with a fixed. But the key point was that it took out risk. How real is that risk? On Black Wednesday in 1992 rates started at 10%, went to 12% and finished at 15%. All on the same day!

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I remember this as I bought my first flat 6 weeks later, paying 8.5%.

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Originally Posted by Kato

Govt does something they know won't help. Surprise.

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It'll help property portfolio owners. Unlikely that they care about anyone else.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/sta...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

House prices back on the up again. We need to start building again.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4800934b58.jpg

I doubt the graph for Scotland looks much better. We need to relax planning laws and encourage more council house building.


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Impressive building figures in the 60’s and 70’s of around 300,000 new builds a year.

Trouble was they were having to demolish hundreds of thousands of slum houses at the same time so the number of extra houses created was not as good as it looks.

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

Amazing. We need more expensive housing apparently.


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https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1654402072870043650

Very interesting stats on house building. Mirrors what has been said before, the reason the youth aren't turning right wing as they age is the don't have wealth to protect.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/resi_analyst/sta...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

House prices back on the up again. We need to start building again.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...4800934b58.jpg

I doubt the graph for Scotland looks much better. We need to relax planning laws and encourage more council house building.


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If the graph was going in the other direction we'd have the green lobby complaining that it's unsustainable and too much growth!

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status...dxJXScFNwz8V4A

Amazing. We need more expensive housing apparently.


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He didn't say that at all in the 17s clip you posted.

He was asked if it's a good thing that home prices are falling and said no. That's not the same thing at all.

How many home owners do you think would say otherwise??

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Originally Posted by WhileTheChief..

He didn't say that at all in the 17s clip you posted.

He was asked if it's a good thing that home prices are falling and said no. That's not the same thing at all.

How many home owners do you think would say otherwise??

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I'm no expert, but if people regard a house as being somewhere to live rather than an investment, then house price rises are, in general, surely a bad thing?

Of course, for those with second, third properties etc, house price rises are excellent.

The problem we have now is that first time buyers are spending a massive amount of their income on a mortgage, money that could be going into other areas of the economy.

House price rises relative to average income is fine. They've been outstripping this for decades though, and that's surely only going to create problems.

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Originally Posted by McSwanky

I'm no expert, but if people regard a house as being somewhere to live rather than an investment, then house price rises are, in general, surely a bad thing?

Of course, for those with second, third properties etc, house price rises are excellent.

The problem we have now is that first time buyers are spending a massive amount of their income on a mortgage, money that could be going into other areas of the economy.

House price rises relative to average income is fine. They've been outstripping this for decades though, and that's surely only going to create problems.

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Only if you're a buyer!

If you own your own home, the last thing you want is to see the price fall, or worse still, leaving you with negative equity. For a lot of people, there home is there only meaningful asset.

Think of the news headlines any time you see prices falling - nobody is pleased when it happens.

Building huge amount of new homes is the answer. Problem is, nobody wants them built near them. Environment, roads, schools, doctors etc etc being used as the excuse.

It may be tough on the younger generation, but they will also be one of the first generations where most of them will inherit their parents homes. That was generally only available for the well off previously.