The EU Referendum (How did you vote?)

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Originally Posted by Colr

Rumours that Labour has done rather badly in London.

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Although very probably true it can only be rumours just now, because it's against UK election law to publish exit polls until all voting is cast

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Originally Posted by allmodcons

Who's benefiting? Lib Dems?

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In London it may be Change UK? If they can’t do well in London they are toast.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

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Thanks for your considered reply.

I don't think I've ever heard a "pro" for leaving that I actually believed would ultimately improve our lot.

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Originally Posted by allmodcons

Who's benefiting? Lib Dems?

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That's what I hear.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

In London it may be Change UK? If they can’t do well in London they are toast.


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ChangeUK have put some good candidates up in London but they really haven't got their message out.

They don't really have a party machine like the Liberals do (who are very well organised in London) and they're not really smart enough to use social media to its full potential.

They've got some way to go to make an impact.

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Originally Posted by Bangkok Hibby

Although very probably true it can only be rumours just now, because it's against UK election law to publish exit polls until all voting is cast

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That's right but people talk. People like election agents.

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Originally Posted by Colr

That's right but people talk. People like election agents.

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:thumbsup:

When are we going to find out?

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

When are we going to find out?

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10pm the programmes start tonight. North east expected by 10.30 ish. They have a thing about being first to count. Scotland not till tomorrow because western Isles won’t count on a Sunday.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by grunt

Thanks for your considered reply.

I don't think I've ever heard a "pro" for leaving that I actually believed would ultimately improve our lot.

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Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

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Don't forget blue passports and we'll be able to stop the muslimification of the UK by stopping EU citizens coming here and spreading their equal rights and employee friendly term and conditions rubbish.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Keep up. We'll be able to make our own laws, in our own parliament, about the shape of the bananas that we can fly in to our shops from the other side of the world.

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Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg

Don't forget blue passports and we'll be able to stop the muslimification of the UK by stopping EU citizens coming here and spreading their equal rights and employee friendly term and conditions rubbish.

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:greengrin

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

10pm the programmes start tonight. North east expected by 10.30 ish. They have a thing about being first to count. Scotland not till tomorrow because western Isles won’t count on a Sunday.


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Is there overnight coverage, the kind of thing you get when there is a general election?

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Originally Posted by RyeSloan

Honestly it’s nothing to do with ‘Brexit wishful thinking’ and as for government forecasts and analysis. Well yes the UK Treasury did the same before the Brexit vote and stated that a vote to leave would cause an immediate and prolonged recession...my lack of faith in these types forecasts and models has been detailed here many tines before.

What I’m saying is that I do not put as much weight into trade deals and the pro’s of the EU as others. To me there are a number of pros and a number of cons (some examples being the gross inefficiency of the CAP that sucks up a huge amount of EU money and the fact that the EU seems permanently unable to audit its own spending).

The same for leaving. There are a number of pros and cons.

In my mind they will ultimately probably all balance out down the line and, after a period of adjustment that may impact some more than others, business and trade will carry on pretty much as before once the political and regulatory environment is clarified.

So as stated that’s why I wasn’t overly bothered either way and certainly why I’m not inclined to be a chicken licken about leaving but on the flip side why I’m also no Farage either.

Btw I’m also similar in Indy although I see greater risks relating to Indy than I do Brexit. I’m sure Indy wold deliver some pros but I’m also sure there is a hell of a lot of risk (like the currency debate highlights) that is not being fully highlighted or worse being deliberately under played. I’m therefore inclined to believe the potential cons will not be worth the effort.

Ultimately then you could probably summarise my position as I was happy for Scotland to stay in the Union and happy for the UK to stay in the EU as changing either was a path fraught with division and risk and with no certainty of material gain at the end of it all.

5 years on from Indy ref and 3 from Brexit ref nothing has happened that has persuaded me that view wasn’t correct!

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I think that’s a good and reasoned analysis and while I won’t always agree with you at least you have made it clear about why you believe what you believe in a fair fashion, always enjoy reading your posts.

I think there is something about the evolution of the EU that maybe needs considered. In my view it started off as a mechanism for stopping France and Germany going to war again, probably why the likes of Belgium and Holland were original signatories, after several hundred years of war on the continent.

It has succeeded in stopping war between its members. But at the same time it has developed over the decades, firstly into a massive trading bloc, and then something akin to a supra-national legislature with massive rights of enforcement in social policy across all its members (which some of us welcome and some do not). We then started to see the flirting with one super-state, a common army etc. That has now been challenged by the rise of populist and nationalist agendas which reject the notion of a common ideal and preach a gospel of resentment and injustice.

I think the notion of European collectivism can and ultimately will rise above that. It is knocking on an open door, given the rise of China, the growth of Russia, the politics in the USA of differentiation and exceptionalism and the impending presence of the likes of India as a major world power.

Perhaps the the most important point is the one you make. Over decades and centuries we have set up such elaborate and complicated structures that any radical change risks massive failure.

In 2008, the banks should have been allowed to fail, if we were being true to the system by which they operate and by which they made massive profits. But that would have meant direct debits failing and ATMs running out of money within hours. There would have been anarchy. The totally flawed system was too big to be allowed to fail, hence trillions of taxpayer money being required to bail out the system.

Leaving the EU, even leaving the union, carry so much inherent risk, not from a political sense, but simply because structures are set up to not be able to deal with leaving. It doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong (subjective, I know), it is simply that sort of radical change carries so many implications, some of which are unforeseen, that the consequences are potentially terrifying.

But, they said that about Y2K I guess :greengrin

Marine Le Pen's crew came out on top of the French election with 23% of the vote, 1% ahead of Macron's lot. At least the greens came a very decent 3rd with 12%, ahead of the traditional Left and Right parties.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...47474ee34f.jpg
Edinburgh turnout figures. Not sure but that looks like a high turnout for a European election.


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...47474ee34f.jpg
Edinburgh turnout figures. Not sure but that looks like a high turnout for a European election.


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That's a decent turnout. I was at my election station today at 13:00 and at that time over 150 of the 320 eligible voters in our village had cast their vote, however most of my neighbours are pensioners so not representative of the rest of Germany.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...56ddfbc6c4.jpg
Pic from the Edinburgh count


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...56ddfbc6c4.jpg
Pic from the Edinburgh count


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Way higher tory vote than expected surely

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...56ddfbc6c4.jpg
Pic from the Edinburgh count


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The brexit partys pile looks quite big considering Scotland is being dragged out kicking and screaming right enough

SNP win Renfrewshire with 41.5% of the vote

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...56ddfbc6c4.jpg
Pic from the Edinburgh count


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Actually it's quite hard to tell given what's behind the front piles

Lib seems pile on closer inspection seems to be doing very well

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_{Labour on 2.8% in Scottish Borders} :faf::faf:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...2b1d644a34.jpg
SNP win the borders. [emoji3]


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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...2b1d644a34.jpg
SNP win the borders. [emoji3]


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Looks like the Conservative vote didn't split enough - shame [emoji23]

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Exit poll from Britain Elects:
Brexit 24
LD 15
Labour 14
Tories 10
Green 4
SNP 2
PC 1

Scotland is SNP 2, Brexit 1, LD 1, Green 1, Labour 1.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...56ddfbc6c4.jpg
Pic from the Edinburgh count


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It is a pic that could quite easily not be genuine.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Exit poll from Britain Elects:
Brexit 24
LD 15
Labour 14
Tories 10
Green 4
SNP 2
PC 1

Scotland is SNP 2, Brexit 1, LD 1, Green 1, Labour 1.

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Isn't 24 seats exactly what Ukip got in 2014?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Smartie

It is a pic that could quite easily not be genuine.

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It was STV who published it. It’s possible they faked it but I don’t think so.


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Wikipedia map says SNP have won Perth, Borders, South & East Ayrshire & Renfrewshire?

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Originally Posted by Mibbes Aye

I think that’s a good and reasoned analysis and while I won’t always agree with you at least you have made it clear about why you believe what you believe in a fair fashion, always enjoy reading your posts.

I think there is something about the evolution of the EU that maybe needs considered. In my view it started off as a mechanism for stopping France and Germany going to war again, probably why the likes of Belgium and Holland were original signatories, after several hundred years of war on the continent.

It has succeeded in stopping war between its members. But at the same time it has developed over the decades, firstly into a massive trading bloc, and then something akin to a supra-national legislature with massive rights of enforcement in social policy across all its members (which some of us welcome and some do not). We then started to see the flirting with one super-state, a common army etc. That has now been challenged by the rise of populist and nationalist agendas which reject the notion of a common ideal and preach a gospel of resentment and injustice.

I think the notion of European collectivism can and ultimately will rise above that. It is knocking on an open door, given the rise of China, the growth of Russia, the politics in the USA of differentiation and exceptionalism and the impending presence of the likes of India as a major world power.

Perhaps the the most important point is the one you make. Over decades and centuries we have set up such elaborate and complicated structures that any radical change risks massive failure.

In 2008, the banks should have been allowed to fail, if we were being true to the system by which they operate and by which they made massive profits. But that would have meant direct debits failing and ATMs running out of money within hours. There would have been anarchy. The totally flawed system was too big to be allowed to fail, hence trillions of taxpayer money being required to bail out the system.

Leaving the EU, even leaving the union, carry so much inherent risk, not from a political sense, but simply because structures are set up to not be able to deal with leaving. It doesn’t matter if it is right or wrong (subjective, I know), it is simply that sort of radical change carries so many implications, some of which are unforeseen, that the consequences are potentially terrifying.

But, they said that about Y2K I guess :greengrin

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Thanks MA, appreciate the kind words [emoji736]

And you’ve probably made the point about radical change better than I did myself [emoji23]

As for Y2K..ha I remember that well. A real chicken licken story that if ever there was one. Made the IT consultants a few quid though that’s for sure!!

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

Isn't 24 seats exactly what Ukip got in 2014?

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Yip. The interpretations on TV are all about a surge for brexit but the remain vote looks stronger? Brexit have just taken all the UKIP vote and added some Tories.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

Isn't 24 seats exactly what Ukip got in 2014?

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Yes

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...7e0c7a033d.jpg


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. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...b498ca89b6.jpg

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Is it at all conceivable that the SNP could finish first in every council area barring Orkney and Shetland?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...a01af507f5.jpg
Based on that the SNP would get three of those percentages stay the same.


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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7gvjD0W0AMDNDt.jpg:large

SNP just won West Lothian with 39.8% of the vote

7/7 so far

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...a01af507f5.jpg
Based on that the SNP would get three of those percentages stay the same.


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We haven't hit my native north east yet, Brexit/Tory votes will be high up there.

Lib Dems just beaten Labour in Islington, Corbyn's own seat. Wonder if he'll listen now? :dunno:

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Lib Dems just beaten Labour in Islington, Corbyn's own seat. Wonder if he'll listen now? :dunno:

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Shh, all part of the grand plan [emoji51][emoji23]

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

Yip. The interpretations on TV are all about a surge for brexit but the remain vote looks stronger? Brexit have just taken all the UKIP vote and added some Tories.


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:agree: Not the massive leave win (so far) that the media would like to portray. Lib Dems and Greens having a stonking night so far.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...3dc6115aef.jpg
Remain doing well.


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South Lanarkshire joins those voting en masse for the SNP.

Massive SNP win in Dundee.

SNP have also won Dundee and look to have won Aberdeen.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...7e0c7a033d.jpg


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stunningly brilliant results, poor labour(northern britain branch) voters all over the place on who to give their votes to :panic:, their new tory bro's, brexit party..or the lib dems

Britain Elects have disavowed their projection.

. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...40bc9351e3.jpg

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SNP now 11/11 in Scotland!

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Britain Elects have disavowed their projection.

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Massive win for Lib Dems in London.

Brexit party not doing too well in london, sitting behind Lib dems and Labour


conservatives facing coming in 5th, behind the greens


labour heading for 'worst ever result' in wales

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Britain Elects have disavowed their projection.

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What was there projection?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

What was there projection?

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See earlier on the thread. Not sure what's wrong with it, but certainly up here looks like more for the SNP than predicted. BP also doing worse in London than expected.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...21ba883389.jpg

SNP are having an amazing night.


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Wins for SNP in Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

Orkney vote Lib Dem. There's a surprise.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Orkney vote Lib Dem. There's a surprise.

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How dare they, bunch of traitors

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

See earlier on the thread. Not sure what's wrong with it, but certainly up here looks like more for the SNP than predicted. BP also doing worse in London than expected.

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Think it was based on a poll of polls taken before the election, not on exit polls.

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Think it was based on a poll of polls taken before the election, not on exit polls.

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Ah ok. Have we got an exit poll floating about?

SNP left, right and centre only for Orkney to ruin the run 😡😁

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Ah ok. Have we got an exit poll floating about?

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Don't think there were any in the UK.

Lib Dems win London.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Ah ok. Have we got an exit poll floating about?

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Exit polls cost much $$$$. EU elections are too small an audience for the broadcasters to bother.

Amazing to get the borders.

Labour have made an absolute bollocks of this

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Originally Posted by makaveli1875

How dare they, bunch of traitors

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Why do you feel the need?

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

Labour have made an absolute bollocks of this

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No they haven't. All part of Corbyn's long game strategy :greengrin

Richard Leonard surely has to be in trouble after tonight. Scottish Labour getting absolutely smashed.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Callum_62

Labour have made an absolute bollocks of this

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Corbyn's more likely to decide to interpret it as a call to support No Deal rather than anything remotely approaching Remain. :greengrin

SNP win East Renfrewshire. That's a big one.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Corbyn's more likely to decide to interpret it as a call to support No Deal rather than anything remotely approaching Remain. :greengrin

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It’s funny cause it’s true.[emoji23]


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SNP win East Lothian. Labour 5th 👀

Scotland so far:
SNP 38.7
Brexit Party 15.7
Conservatives 11.8
Lib Dems 11.6
Labour 10.9
Green 6.8

That would be SNP 3 Brexit 1 Tories 1 LD 1. Labour wiped out.

Shetland votes Lib Dem too.

Wales

Brexit 271,404
Plaid Cymru 163,928
Labor 127,833
Lib dems 113,885
Conservatives 54,587

Labour are getting smashed to pieces

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Originally Posted by cabbageandribs1875

Wales

Brexit 271,404
Plaid Cymru 163,928
Labor 127,833
Lib dems 113,885
Conservatives 54,587

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Labour finishing behind pesky civic nationalists in two countries now. :faf:

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Corbyn's more likely to decide to interpret it as a call to support No Deal rather than anything remotely approaching Remain. :greengrin

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He wasn't slow to call the cooncil elections a cry to "get on with brexit". I seriously doubt he's had an epiphany this time around. His... and Labours', funeral

West Midlands

Brexit 507,152
Labour 228298
Libs 219,982
Green 143,520
Conservative 135,270



wow

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Originally Posted by Jack Hackett

He wasn't slow to call the cooncil elections a cry to "get on with brexit". I seriously doubt he's had an epiphany this time around. His... and Labours', funeral

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If he doesn't immediately turn around and say "we get it, we'll campaign for a 2nd ref/Remain" tomorrow morning then it's the best chance they'll get at a leadership challenge to remove him. The generation that voted him in will have had enough and may well elect a left-leaning Remainer instead.

Looking forward to the Labour explanation of tonight when he’s on.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

If he doesn't immediately turn around and say "we get it, we'll campaign for a 2nd ref/Remain" tomorrow morning then it's the best chance they'll get at a leadership challenge to remove him. The generation that voted him in will have had enough and may well elect a left-leaning Remainer instead.

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Government awaits Labour with a massive majority to boot if they change leader.


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SNP win Angus (woo!) and Edinburgh.

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Originally Posted by Diclonius

Labour finishing behind pesky civic nationalists in two countries now. :faf:

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worth noting Plaid cymru had 4,000 at their recent first ever AUOB march, the first AUOB Scottish march drew just 300 four years ago...then millions for the one a few weeks back :)

I assume any Brexit party MEPs won't be taking their seats in Strasbourg/Brussles as they want to be rid of the EU

Also, this tweet just sums up what the Brexit party are all about

https://i.imgur.com/XvSguZv.png

Vote share now the following:
SNP 36.6
LibDem 15.5
Brexit 15.0
Tories 12.1
Labour 8.3
Green 8.1

Still SNP 3 LD 1 Brexit 1 Tories 1. Labour aren't even going to come close to a seat at this rate.

Yorkshire and Humber


Brexit 470,351
Labour 210,516
Libs 200,180
Green 166,980
Conservative 92,863
the yorkshire party 50,842

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Originally Posted by Ryan91

I assume any Brexit party MEPs won't be taking their seats in Strasbourg/Brussles as they want to be rid of the EU

Also, this tweet just sums up what the Brexit party are all about

https://i.imgur.com/XvSguZv.png

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They will sign in to get all their allowances but they never do any work.


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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

They will sign in to get all their allowances but they never do any work.


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and make careers out of it, the Farage way

uk wide Greens have doubled their seats to 12, so far



Netherlands, Far-Right collapse as labour tops poll

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Originally Posted by Ryan91

I assume any Brexit party MEPs won't be taking their seats in Strasbourg/Brussles as they want to be rid of the EU

Also, this tweet just sums up what the Brexit party are all about

https://i.imgur.com/XvSguZv.png

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Is that Brian Monteith?

Vote share for No Deal (BP) is about what I expected. I fully expect brexit to die a slow death

Western Isles, Dumfries and Moray are the only councils left that could plausibly vote not SNP, if they win them then it'll be a clean sweep barring the Northern Isles.

This Neil Findlay is a bit of a daftie. Does he have a job in politics?

South West

Brexit 611,742
Libs 385,095
Green 302,364
Conservatives 144,674
Labour 108,100

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Originally Posted by lapsedhibee

Is that Brian Monteith?

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Yes


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BP definitely on for way more than 24 seats on showing so far.

Kuenssberg : London result 'very worrying' for Labour