Originally Posted by
Hibernia&Alba
I don't think it's that simple, as Labour voters are deeply divided on Brexit, even if the parliamentary party is overwhelmingly Remain. Conservative voters lean heavily towards Brexit, but the Labour vote is much more balanced, with Labour heartlands in the West Midlands, the north and South Wales amongst the most pro-Brexit regions. The Brexit Party is peeling away support from both Labour and Conservatives, and we seem to be in unknown territory, with the two party system breaking down over the EU issue. This is inevitable really, given the vote was 52-48.
Jeremy Corbyn is actually more ambivalent of the EU than the vast majority of his PLP colleagues, and there is no guarantee that a more centrist pro-European leader would improve the Labour vote, when so many Labour voters want to leave the EU. It's so difficult to make any predictions at the moment. The Tory strategy is to peel off Leave voters from Labour in the traditional Labour heartlands in England and Wales over Brexit, but they too have no guarantee of success, though a pact with the Brexit Party on a firmly Leave ticket in a general election might just see it work. The pro-Remain parties might create an electoral pact of their own to try to win a big Remain majority, perhaps by agreeing to field just one candidate against pro-Brexit Tories in Tory seats.
All the old certainties look broken just now and I wouldn't like to make any predictions. If I were to take a best guess, I think an election today would return another hung parliament and further Brexit stalemate. There seems to be a re-alignment of the party system taking place, and the situation is very fluid.
