Coronavirus

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Originally Posted by G B Young

Both Spain and Italy remain without official national figures for cases and deaths in care homes or outwith hospitals as far as I'm aware. Very tricky therefore to come up with accurate comparisons.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

Spain is no longer recording excess deaths

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It seems that Spain is being economical with the truth. Article here in the FT about how they are not reporting deaths unless they happened the day before?

https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-...2-616708b43673

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Originally Posted by Berwickhibby

Apparently there is going to be a March in Edinburgh this Saturday

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It's on Sunday at 1 at the Gardens.

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Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens

It's got absolutely nothing to do with population size. If R (effective) is below 1, then the number of cases will eventually hit 0. The lower Re, the faster the decline.

So say Re is 0.5. You start with 1000 infectious people (who haven't infected anyone else yet) and their average time of infectiousness is 10 days and their average time of becoming non-infectious (by recovering or dying) is also 10 days. Then, after 10 days you would expect to have 500 infectious people (500 newly infected, the original 1000 recovered). Then you ease things and Re jumps to 0.9. After another 10 days you'd have 450.

Unfortunately, that's a gross over-simplification because you have to slide the window of infectiousness and the window of recovery over the time period and they will be different sizes. Plus, Re is going to vary place to place by number of people each person is in contact with, what measures they're taking, etc etc etc.

You can see why they struggle to come up with a good number.

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OK thanks.

I think I was trying to use it as a risk metric to tells me how likely I am to get the virus or how susceptible the population is at large. But, if I understand this correctly, it’s of no use what so ever on that front.

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Originally Posted by grunt

It seems that Spain is being economical with the truth. Article here in the FT about how they are not reporting deaths unless they happened the day before?

https://www.ft.com/content/77eb7a13-...2-616708b43673

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Yeah, I'm not sure you can trust anybody's number for "covid deaths".

I was talking about "excess deaths", ie. the number of deaths recorded above the baseline average. If you look at the graph on the first page of this:

https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Ser...20mayo_CNE.pdf

You can see Spain's mortality returned to around the baseline in the last few weeks. England's was still about 25% higher than normal on the last set of figures which are now a couple of weeks old.

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-fris...e-to-covid-19/

Might explain the lack of a 2nd wave anywhere?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Iran

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Originally Posted by Ozyhibby

https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-fris...e-to-covid-19/

Might explain the lack of a 2nd wave anywhere?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I guess we’ll find out..I did think that after London opened up, after the VE celebrations, the people on the beaches or after most European countries relaxing lockdown that we’d have seen evidence of a 2nd wave.

It’s fantastic that we haven’t yet and let’s hope that we don’t.

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Originally Posted by Betty Boop

It's on Sunday at 1 at the Gardens.

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Yeah, just read that in Evening News it was originally going to be starting in Regent street near to US consulate

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

I guess we’ll find out..I did think that after London opened up, after the VE celebrations, the people on the beaches or after most European countries relaxing lockdown that we’d have seen evidence of a 2nd wave.

It’s fantastic that we haven’t yet and let’s hope that we don’t.

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It really is and I hope so too.

Don't know if you've seen this already?

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

But it's quite a good read on the general principles of viral transmission and how they relate to this with some real world examples. It's when we're back in enclosed spaces for considerable lengths of time that the risks really start to take off.

I was saying to my missus at the weekend, as she was getting agitated about a multi-household gathering kicking off in one of our neighbours' gardens, it's not this you have to worry about, it's that people will see this sort of guidance ignored and not much come of it, then be complacent when they really need to "stay alert" (to coin a phrase. :wink:).

Was told today, that the R is at 1.6 in Blackpool.

Comparing large groups of selfish twats partying to celebrate VE day to those fighting for racial equality and an end to systemic prejudice and police brutality is not a good look.

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Originally Posted by PaulSmith

Delighted to see this coming down. Absolutely minuscule numbers in a population of 5.5m and I still struggle with the FM’s ascertain that the R number is closer to 1 than 0.5. Can anyone help?

Id love to know if the new cases were in a cluster or spread across the country, does anyone know if they share that info?

Hopefully it’s a fairly straightforward process through the phases.

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29 of the new cases were in Lothian (59%).

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Originally Posted by Sylar

Comparing large groups of selfish twats partying to celebrate VE day to those fighting for racial equality and an end to systemic prejudice and police brutality is not a good look.

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I agree breaking social distancing for VE Day was stupid, as is those breaking it for BLM demonstrations, please explain to me how much notice that Dick in the White House will take over yesterday's demonstration in London and what changes will be made because of yesterday in the US.

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Originally Posted by Berwickhibby

I agree breaking social distancing for VE Day was stupid, as is those breaking it for BLM demonstrations, please explain to me how much notice that Dick in the White House will take over yesterday's demonstration in London and what changes will be made because of yesterday in the US.

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People protesting against systemic racism and police brutality are doing so because it's happening, and worsening, right now. These people can't just 'park their injustices' until the timing is a bit more convenient. And while America is currently in the crosshairs once more, the people in London and other parts of the UK will also be protesting for racial equality here in the UK, because while black people in this country are far less likely to be killed because of the colour of their skin, that doesn't mean they're not subject to oppression, abuse and a lack of opportunities.

I don't take these BLM protests to be aimed at Trump. He's merely a cog in the machine that has kept people of colour down for centuries.

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Originally Posted by Sylar

Comparing large groups of selfish twats partying to celebrate VE day to those fighting for racial equality and an end to systemic prejudice and police brutality is not a good look.

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Anyone who is deciding to gather in mass crowds just now, regardless of the reason, is being incredibly selfish in my book.

I just can't get my head around it at all. These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Anyone who is deciding to gather in mass crowds just now, regardless of the reason, is being incredibly selfish in my book.

I just can't get my head around it at all. These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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I respectfully disagree, but don't overly wish to get into an argument over it.

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Originally Posted by Sylar

I respectfully disagree, but don't overly wish to get into an argument over it.

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I don't think anybody is looking to argue, we will just have to agree to disagree... regardless how just this cause is I would hate to see a second wave of this virus .... especially if it's tracked back to mass gatherings like yesterday

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Anyone who is deciding to gather in mass crowds just now, regardless of the reason, is being incredibly selfish in my book.

I just can't get my head around it at all. These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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Spot on

I'm appalled by what is going on in the USA but I also don't think now is the time for mass gatherings and protest in the UK.

As soon as the whole coronavirus business is over then I think protest of all sorts is long overdue.

But this stuff happening right now? It has the potential to kill innocent people. That's not an acceptable or proportionate protest.

It will be the vulnerable, it will be the frontline NHS workers who suffer and I don't think they deserve to be victims of this protest.

Frankly, I think it weakens the very powerful and correct message that the protesters have.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

Might’ve been mentioned but here in NZ we are expecting to return to normal next week (aside from borders) and all bets are off, including social distancing! A quite remarkable effort really. At this point there is ONE active case, and we’ve had 2 weeks of no new cases. COVID eliminated in NZ.

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Aye it’s easy for you living on an island to close travel and borders. If only we had that advantage ... oh wait

Face coverings to be mandatory on public transport in England from 15th June.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Face coverings to be mandatory on public transport in England from 15th June.

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I guess those face masks that were of no benefit are actually of some benefit after all.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I just can't get my head around it at all. These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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I think that speaks to the desperation that is clearly felt in the BEM community. Maybe we need to get our collective (white) heads around it? Those protestors, even in the U.K, clearly feel that police violence is an existential threat in the same way as Covid is? Listen to those concerns or tell them they are mistaken, it’s a clear political choice.

On a wider point, please don’t tell me you don’t get political change through demonstrations. If we all only relied on putting a wee tick on a ballot paper to effect change, Rosa Parks would still be sitting on the back of busses in Alabama and we’d all be paying the poll tax.

Hardly any shop staff working on the floor wear mask, this includes the Managers

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Originally Posted by Scorrie

Aye it’s easy for you living on an island to close travel and borders. If only we had that advantage ... oh wait

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Tbf one is an island of 5m people at the southerly tip of the Pacific and around 5,000km to Australia heading west and around 9,000 km to Chile heading east.

The other is an island of 70m people with one of the worlds busiest airports, one of the world‘s key global cities and a member of one of the worlds largest trading blocks with free movement of people.

I agree that NZ have done well though. Hopefully they can reopen their country at some point and not remain imprisoned in their island.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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:top marks

At the very least they could still be angry and protest, and socially distance at the same time.

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Originally Posted by Steve-O

Might’ve been mentioned but here in NZ we are expecting to return to normal next week (aside from borders) and all bets are off, including social distancing! A quite remarkable effort really. At this point there is ONE active case, and we’ve had 2 weeks of no new cases. COVID eliminated in NZ.

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Fantastic news, particularly for you all in NZ of course but also gives hope for the rest of us that it can be done. We're a long way from that stage, but stories of optimism welcome from anywhere and everywhere at the moment!

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Originally Posted by hibsbollah

I think that speaks to the desperation that is clearly felt in the BEM community. Maybe we need to get our collective (white) heads around it? Those protestors, even in the U.K, clearly feel that police violence is an existential threat in the same way as Covid is? Listen to those concerns or tell them they are mistaken, it’s a clear political choice.

On a wider point, please don’t tell me you don’t get political change through demonstrations. If we all only relied on putting a wee tick on a ballot paper to effect change, Rosa Parks would still be sitting on the back of busses in Alabama and we’d all be paying the poll tax.

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I haven't said anything about demonstrations not having their place, I'm not sure that I've said anything that would make you think otherwise. I've actually gone on record to say that peaceful protests absolutely have their place.

My fundamental point is that the biggest focus at the moment for the entire country is trying to overcome the worst health crisis that this country has faced for generations.

We've just clapped for our care workers every week for the past two and a half months, it's these people who will bear the brunt of having to look after increasing numbers of people if they end up in hospital as a result of these mass gatherings.

We're getting close (at least in Scotland) to being able to say that there have been no new deaths in a 24 hours period. Why would anyone want to jeopardise that?

There will be a time and a place when people can exercise their democratic right to demonstrate peacefully and they can make their voices heard again. That time isn't now and, God forbid, if their actions do cause an increase in cases and fatalities then I'm afraid that will be on them.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

I haven't said anything about demonstrations not having their place, I'm not sure that I've said anything that would make you think otherwise. I've actually gone on record to say that peaceful protests absolutely have their place.

My fundamental point is that the biggest focus at the moment for the entire country is trying to overcome the worst health crisis that this country has faced for generations.

We've just clapped for our care workers every week for the past two and a half months, it's these people who will bear the brunt of having to look after increasing numbers of people if they end up in hospital as a result of these mass gatherings.

We're getting close (at least in Scotland) to being able to say that there have been no new deaths in a 24 hours period. Why would anyone want to jeopardise that?

There will be a time and a place when people can exercise their democratic right to demonstrate peacefully and they can make their voices heard again. That time isn't now and, God forbid, if their actions do cause an increase in cases and fatalities then I'm afraid that will be on them.

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Yes, I get your point of view. ‘Please don’t tell me’ was a rhetorical flourish on my part, it wasn’t directed at you individually.

Former head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove has said he believes the virus was accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab after seeing scientific reports.

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Originally Posted by Sir David Gray

Anyone who is deciding to gather in mass crowds just now, regardless of the reason, is being incredibly selfish in my book.

I just can't get my head around it at all. These people claim they want to help and support the black and ethnic minority community, I'd suggest the best way they could do that right now would be to not help potentially spread a virus that has been disproportionately affecting people from black and ethnic minorities.

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I agree with you. As you posted earlier the scenes in London were insane. Protest, yes, absolutely, but there are more sensible, inventive and just as effective ways to do so in the current climate than simply disregarding all sense of health and safety.